As fantasy football continues to grow year after year, so does the sophistication of the average football fan. When I first started Preseason Matchup Analysis for public consumption back in 2008, it was a noble concept that needed more information than I had available at the time. As more and more sites have found their way into the public consciousness and established certain metrics that help break down the game, my ability to deliver a finer product has also increased. In the beginning, it was enough to consider a team like Baltimore or Pittsburgh to be bad news for every fantasy player they faced. Now, my PMAs consider factors such as the likelihood of how often a certain receiver will play in the slot against how often he may square off against the defense’s best corner – and how he matches up against him physically. While it is a long and tedious process, it is a worthwhile exercise.

It is this kind of painstaking detail that I believe sets “Preseason Matchup Analysis” apart from any other projection method in the business. While last year’s ranks and numbers are considered when predicting game-by-game totals, consistently successful prognosticators and fantasy owners typically “see the future” better than their counterparts. No method is foolproof or all-encompassing; for every breakout player I get right, you can bet there is at least one player that goes from third- or fourth-string on their team’s depth chart (if not a street free agent) to fantasy stardom.

Also, every set of projections has some bias attached to them; the trick is running the bias through enough filters in order to minimize the impact of it, which I believe this method does. One of the main tenets of my method is based on the notion that elite players will be elite about 75% of the time or more regardless of the matchup. But elite fantasy players are simply the foundation of your team. In order to consistently make the playoffs and succeed in the fantasy postseason, “little things” such as potential matchups play a vital role in determining which good players will perform at an elite level in that week. This method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the playoffs – a time where there is usually very little separating each of the remaining teams.

Quite often, the best businesses (and their practices) in the real world are the ones that are the most transparent and adaptable to change. It’s hard to be more transparent than I am each year with my game-to-game projections. As for the ability to change, one preseason injury to a key offensive player can cause a ripple effect to the entire team’s projections while an injury to a key defensive player can do the same to each of their opponents. While it sounds like a lot of work – and it is – it is necessary because those “ripple effects” are felt on the field as well. (Art imitating reality…what a wonderful concept!)

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the New York Giants’ projections. Victor Cruz does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) there is a lack of quality cornerbacks on his schedule and 2) players like Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson do not typically move into the slot when a player like Cruz slides inside. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Sherman play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. And really, that is just the tip of the iceberg when I hammer out these projections. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2014.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC East

Matchup analysis: Outside of Watkins and Woods, it is unlikely that most fantasy owners will have much use for any other player in the passing game. Williams’ addition should effectively eliminate what value Chandler used to have as a primary red-zone option, but the ex-Buc isn’t going to see the field regularly until the Bills go to three-wide packages. Thanks to Manuel’s marginal accuracy (as well as the quality of defenses in the division now), Watkins and Woods’ road to fantasy success will be somewhat bumpier in 2014 than it might have been in another division (such as the other division I’ll talk about in a few minutes). The reason both will be somewhat relevant in fantasy this season is because Watkins is a rushing and receiving threat in the mold of a bigger Percy Harvin that can line up all over the field. For Woods, he’ll assume the old Steve Johnson role out of the slot in three-receiver sets, likely making him the first option for Manuel on the majority of passing downs. Both players will see plenty of time in the slot, so it makes it difficult to slap a red box on either one of them simply because players like Brent Grimes (Weeks 2 and 11), Brandon Flowers (Week 3) and Darrelle Revis (Week 6) are highly unlikely to follow either player inside. In regards to the rushing attack, the combined talents of Spiller, Jackson and Brown figures to compensate for the few times that volume doesn’t make at least two players in this running game usable in fantasy. A few of the yellow boxes for Spiller, Jackson and Brown will end up being red for many teams, but I’m fairly convinced that only the Patriots and Jets have the necessary manpower in the front seven to stop Buffalo consistently on the ground and depth to withstand the Bills’ tempo.

Matchup analysis: If there is one potential obstacle to Wallace enjoying a huge bounce-back season, it would be the number of teams on the Dolphins’ schedule that will be employing a lot of press-man coverage. Obviously, press coverage can be beaten, but there are a number of teams on the schedule that have the personnel to play it well now (New England comes to mind) while others have the personnel (Denver) or coaches (Minnesota, with longtime DC Mike Zimmer as the new coach) capable of making life difficult for receivers. Playing a string of press-man defenses may not be much of a concern for some offenses and/or bigger receivers, but Wallace and Hartline aren’t exactly the kind of receivers that typically thrive against in-your-face defensive strategy, which will make it all the more important that Wallace is moved around frequently. With that said, only Revis and the Broncos’ Aqib Talib figure to “shadow” Wallace anytime he is lined up on the outside of the formation, so it means Hartline will have his work cut out for him since he is the least likely to see snaps in the slot. Clay doesn’t have an easy road by any means either, but his schedule also isn’t one in which a little creativity from Lazor can’t handle. Lazor also figures to commit to the running game much more than ex-OC Mike Sherman did, meaning Miller will get his best shot yet at proving he is a capable NFL lead back (if not a feature back). Most of the imposing run defenses the Dolphins will face in 2014 are in their own division, so there is a significant chunk of the season in which Miller could be a very capable RB2 if he is able to relegate Moreno to a part-time passing-down back.

Matchup analysis: If the Patriots’ offense was considered “unpredictable” in previous years, wait until this season. New England has the luxury of being the only team in the division with a legitimate passing offense (Miami is a distant second) and will face a schedule that features the all-of-the-sudden offensively-charged NFC North and the AFC West, which should feature a very good defense in Denver but has a bunch of question marks on that side of the ball after the Broncos. In other words, Brady is poised to “bounce back” (if we can even call last year a disappointment) simply because there aren’t a lot of teams on the schedule that have capable slot corners to match up with Edelman and/or Amendola, a safety or nickel linebacker that has much of a chance consistently against Gronkowski and/or Vereen or an outside corner capable of shutting down a healthy Dobson. Teams like the Bills and Bengals had somewhat realistic shots to slow down the Patriots, but Buffalo lost perhaps its best all-purpose defender in LB Kiko Alonso to a season-ending offseason injury and Cincinnati cannot be expected to be as good defensively without Zimmer. About the only thing that should keep Brady from 4,000-plus AND 30-plus touchdowns is if Ridley really takes control of the running game. Speaking of the rushing attack, it is possible that New England’s only bumps in the road will be against the Jets (Weeks 7 and 16) and Denver (Week 9). Perhaps the Bengals and Bills (Weeks 5 and 6, respectively) can possess the ball with their running games; either way, even if those teams hold up well, there is a severe lack of stout defenses on New England’s slate this season. (There have been some reports suggesting LaFell will occupy the role left vacant since the release of Aaron Hernandez. While it seems unlikely anything will come of it, his projections above assume that role since he figures to be no better than the No. 5 or 6 receiver otherwise.)

Matchup analysis: The Jets could find themselves in the unenviable position of not being able to show off their two best features this season: running the ball and stopping the run. With its shortcomings in the secondary, New York could get exposed by an offense capable of scoring 30-plus points in every game from Week 2 to Week 7 and it isn’t a stretch to suggest that every opponent from Weeks 10-16 has a passing game (be it a dynamic quarterback, receiver or both) that could force the Jets to abandon the run. Brushing that gloom-and-doom outlook to the side for a bit, New York actually has a mostly favorable slate for Johnson and Ivory to execute “Ground-and-Pound” if I am severely underestimating the Jets’ ability to defend opposing passing games. It should be noted that a number of the pitiful 2013 run defenses on New York’s 2014 schedule are getting back important cogs to their units while others added significant talent (and in some cases, both apply). Decker’s owners probably aren’t going to be overly happy about half the time either; the ex-Bronco will see “shadow” corners Revis, Talib and Grimes four times during the fantasy season while Gilmore (twice) and the Chargers’ Brandon Flowers (who should bounce back in a big way after proving not to be a fit in Kansas City’s press-man system) could also enter the “shadow discussion” at some point this season. What it all means is that unless Smith enjoys a significant second-year leap, Hill decides 2014 is the year he delivers on his talent and/or Amaro makes the (unlikely) quick jump from oversized college slot receiver to movable chess piece in a West Coast offense, there is bound to be a lot of disappointing passing-game numbers coming out of New York.

NFC East