Last year at about this same time, I discussed a social psychology paradigm called “effort justification” that asserts people have a tendency to attribute a greater value (greater than the objective value) to an outcome they had to put effort into acquiring or achieving. I think it is worth revisiting at least once a year because we often spend most of the spring and early summer singing the praises of one player while talking down another player. At some point, we have invested enough energy (or emotional cache, as I like to call it) into building our cases for one player’s breakout or decline that, whether we recognize it or not, we have passed the point of no return. In other words, the first people to take a stand for or against a player are often among the last to change their opinion of him.

While I have talked about many of the players that will find their way onto my Big Boards in a few weeks in some fashion over the last two months, I honestly do not know how I feel about their redraft value until I do these projections each July. Obviously, I enter this process higher on some players than others, but I am surprised during the course of these week-to-week projections at how often my initial impression doesn’t match up with the numbers I project for him – good or bad. For example, I entered this week’s projections under the assumption I was going to be a bit more optimistic about Ray Rice than most despite a possible multi-game suspension to begin the season. Perhaps my projection of Rice below reflects that, but a look at his matchup line quickly tells me his forecast is probably on the high end – especially if Bernard Pierce fares well in the early going. I think the fact that analyzing each matchup helps keep me honest is a good thing. In many drafts, avoiding the early busts is every bit as important as hitting on one or two late-round bargains; some of each can be “discovered” simply by looking at what defenses (and in some cases, individual defenders) a player has to face in the upcoming season.

Last week, I kicked off my sixth year of projecting each player on every team game-by-game, two divisions at a time. This week, I turn my attention to the North as we continue our march to the first Big Board of the season.

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Green Bay Packers’ projections. Randall Cobb does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) there is a lack of quality cornerbacks on his schedule and 2) cornerbacks like Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson do not typically move into the slot when a player like Cobb slides inside. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Sherman play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. And really, that is just the tip of the iceberg when I hammer out these projections. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2014.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Avg - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Avg - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC North

Matchup analysis: Once the schedule was released, Rice’s odds of coming back to his old feature-back role – assuming he is as healthy as is being reported – went up dramatically. If Pierce is healthy and Taliaferro’s legal matters are cleared up by September, they will square off against each of the other teams in the division – all of which should have a solid to very good run defense – and Carolina, which had one of the best run-stopping units in the league last year. But even with a healthy Rice, this schedule doesn’t present more than 1-2 matchups that are clearly in the Ravens’ favor. In short, owners hoping for a bounce-back season from Rice will probably have to hope he has a little better luck in the red zone and at least maintains the reception pace he had last year (3.9 per game). Of course, the running game would be more likely to take off if Kubiak can turn Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta into the East Coast version of Johnson and Daniels. Torrey Smith began to round out his short and intermediate game last year and will have the benefit of a healthy Pitta as well as a capable veteran playmaker in Steve Smith that will force defenses to play him honestly. Unlike his running back counterparts, Torrey Smith has a relatively smooth slate. The best two corners he figures to face before the bye may be Cleveland’s Joe Haden (Week 3) and Tampa Bay’s Alterraun Verner (Week 6), the latter of which is unlikely to serve as a “shadow”. He is much more likely to struggle after the bye, although only Miami’s Brent Grimes (Week 14) is a strong bet to follow him all over the field. As for Pitta, he is Flacco’s go-to receiver and should be a very strong PPR option after September. His last potential difficult matchup occurs in Week 13 as Miami, Jacksonville and Houston can all be expected to struggle against above-average tight ends this season.

Matchup analysis: No matter how much Jackson wants to establish the ground game, his offense may utilize Gruden’s approach early on. If I’m right about the Falcons’ free-agent additions making their run defense a top-12 unit this year, then the Bengals will face four teams over their first five games that should be pretty stout against the rush. The slate gets marginally easier in the middle before the last six games on the fantasy slate will probably test Jackson’s stubbornness with the rushing attack. Bernard is electric enough to push for 1,000 yards on the ground against this schedule with about 200 carries, but Hill will have to be every bit as powerful as he was when he was at his best in college. It is entirely possible that Green watches his lofty totals drop in 2014, although Jackson would be foolish to take targets away from his offense’s best player. Green really struggled against Haden (Week 10 and 15) and shouldn’t be expected to do all that much against New England’s Darrelle Revis or Denver’s Aqib Talib, which means owners may want to look at another option for their WR1 since Green faces two of three aforementioned corners during the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. By extension, Dalton should not be expected to be overly dominant late in the season either given his career-long woes against Pittsburgh and Green’s difficult matchups. With less volume and more difficult matchups than last season, Dalton has virtually no chance to finish among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks (much less the top three, like he did last season).

Matchup analysis: Tate, West and Crowell were already going to have their work cut out for them against their own division, but being a one-dimensional offense against the teams of the NFC South (Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay should all be able to put some points up) is going to make it difficult for owners to rely on any Browns’ running back, at least until one gets hurt. Making matters worse is that Cleveland will likely employ a two-man committee at the beginning of the season, which may grow into a three-man attack if Crowell makes the team and is able to be trusted. At any rate, much of Cleveland’s schedule is filled with teams capable of matching up with its receivers one-on-one while also stuffing eight men in the box. Volume figures to help Tate and West owners out, although it may not be a bad idea to deal either or both back(s) if they can fetch decent trade value around midseason. Hawkins should be a solid fit because he is able to uncover quickly, something that helped Hoyer build such quick chemistry with Cameron last year. With that said, Hoyer could easily play well and start 0-3, which would force the new coaching staff to consider handing the job to Manziel during the bye. Once the rookie has the keys to the car, I suspect whatever value the passing game had will pretty much disappear as defenses relentless press the Browns’ receivers and make Manziel beat them from the pocket. It’s a recipe that worked well for a couple of the more talented college defenses Manziel faced in 2013 and it is also fair to say that he doesn’t have a receiver as good as Mike Evans to bail him out of trouble in Cleveland.

Matchup analysis: The Steelers caught a bit of a break in 2013 when they faced the NFC North – a division that contained three of the 10 friendliest defenses against opposing running backs. Pittsburgh won’t be as lucky in 2014 as the NFC South was home to three of the 10 stingiest such defenses (none of which lost much in the way of personnel last season). Combined with five games during the fantasy season against the defensive-minded AFC North, the Steelers’ ground game could easily struggle out of the gate if Munchak isn’t able to get his troops to maximize their talent. Bell and Blount will be hard-pressed to deliver much in September as all four games are against opponents with strong front sevens. Things lighten up a bit after that and through Week 12, but none of the final four games look overly appealing since at least three of the four teams have enough offensive firepower to get Pittsburgh to abandon the run if the transitioning Steelers defense is anything like it was last year. Bell avoids the red box for most of his schedule, however, because he is a very adept receiver that is a good bet for at least 80-100 total yards against just about any defense. Brown mostly had his way with Haden last season, so don’t expect much of a drop-off from the Steelers’ top receiver since the Cleveland cornerback is the best one he is going to face in 2014. Obviously, if Brown figures to be as consistent as he was last year, Roethlisberger’s production will probably mirror that. With Brown a near-lock for at least five catches per game again, Miller still serving as his reliable short-area option and the team planning on utilizing more no-huddle, there is no reason Roethlisberger won’t be able to perform like a low-end QB1 in 2014.

NFC North

Matchup analysis: I don’t recall the last time a team spent all three fantasy playoff weeks (14-16) at home, but that is exactly what the Bears will do in 2014. While Chicago isn’t exactly the coziest place to play football in December, it is highly unlikely each game over that stretch will be a brutal, dead-of-winter game in which the wind is blowing 40 miles per hour either. Forte has no shortage of potentially difficult matchups, but owners shouldn’t spend much time worrying about it since nearly a third of his fantasy value comes as a receiver out of the backfield. Very few linebackers are capable of handling him as a runner – much less as a receiver – so only injury figures to keep him from being one of the three or four most consistent backs in fantasy. As for Marshall and Jeffery, both receivers could easily exceed 1,200 yards AND 10 touchdowns against a schedule that is ripe for the picking. New England (Week 8) is the only team with two corners that can realistically expect to match up with the Bears’ duo before the bye, while Tampa Bay (Week 12) and New Orleans (Week 15) probably own the best secondaries of any second-half opponent. IF (and it is a big if) Cutler can stay healthy, Chicago could set a number of franchise passing records this season.