During the preseason, I promised to deliver updated projections
each quarter in an effort to help fantasy owners plan for the
immediate and near future. Because I’m covering all 32 teams
this week and there is a lot to cover, I’m going to get
right to it.
At least this time around, I’ve chosen to identify a “buy”
or “sell” candidate as well as a potential breakout
player for each team over the next month. Depending on the feedback
I receive on this piece, I may do the same when I attempt to project
the third and fourth quarters of the season following Weeks 8
and 12.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
Buy: Forsett/Taliaferro. I’m not exactly sure how strong of
a “buy” recommendation I would give either player, but
I’m fairly certain Forsett’s start (prior to Week 4)
isn’t going to be the way he finishes. Similarly, Taliaferro
has been on the verge of becoming something more than a goal-line
back but can’t seem to stay healthy this season. If and when
that changes, it’s possible he could become more than a low-end
flex.
Sell: Smith. Perhaps last year’s second-half fade is still
on the mind, but I’d be tempted to deal the 36-year-old
once he returns from his back injury. Time usually does not favor
older receivers, so given how physical Smith is, it may be worth
it to get ahead of the curve.
Breakout player: Givens. The Ravens drafted Breshad Perriman
with the idea that he was going to stretch the field, but he is
out indefinitely. Don’t be surprised if the deep ball that
Givens was so proficient at tracking down as a rookie for the
Rams in 2012 becomes his thing in Baltimore while the team waits
on Perriman. Flacco has one of the biggest arms in the league.
Buy: Hill. This is a delayed “buy” recommendation. Obviously,
the time to deal for a player isn’t the week after he scores
three touchdowns. The time to trade for him might be after Week
8 since Cincinnati has a stretch of three difficult run defenses
to face in succession. I’m not going to buy Hill is in much
– if any - danger of losing a starting job simply because
OC Hue Jackson prefers a physical back. As I said the beginning
of the preseason, there’s more than enough volume in this
offense to support two highly-productive backs.
Sell: Bernard. Just like I wouldn’t go out and try to pursue
Hill this week, I wouldn’t necessarily rush to deal away
Bernard any quicker than I have to. The point to be made is that
I don’t think his value is going to get much higher. As
long as he can stay healthy, Bernard’s going to be a big
drain for those owners that were hoping that Hill could replicate
2014. Having said that, the upcoming three games may be a trying
time for all those happy Bernard owners in the first quarter of
the season.
Buy: Johnson. It’s always easy to say “buy” right
after a player has his big day, but I’m telling you that while
he probably won’t be all that consistent, it appears Cleveland
has figured out how it was to use its version of Giovani Bernard.
It’s a cautious “buy” recommendation for the simple
fact the Browns have not shown a great ability to pick one running
back and keep that player in a clear role for any length of time.
Sell: Crowell. There’s a fairly decent chance that Crowell
isn’t going to bring much back in a trade, but I’d
recommend dealing him now if you can get something decent in return.
Johnson already showed what he was capable of last week and Robert
Turbin is on his way, likely to steal early-down duties.
Breakout player: Turbin. Benjamin has already “broken out”,
especially considering he has back-to-back games of 10 targets.
I also hesitate to say Barnidge as well since he faces a brutal
stretch of defenses over the second quarter of the schedule that
can defend the tight end. Cleveland dropped pet project Terrelle
Pryor at the end of the preseason in order to pick up Turbin off
waivers, which should provide some sense of what the team feels
like he can bring. He’s been practicing in limited fashion
recently, so he should be able to make his debut in the next week
or two.
Buy: Brown. He’s not going to come cheap because any half-serious
owner knows what his situation is, but there is certain to be an
owner that cannot afford to have low-end WR1 production (or worse)
from a top-five pick over the next 2-4 weeks. Barring injury, his
value is not going to be any lower than it is right now for the
rest of the season.
Sell: Miller. “Old Reliable” is about the only Steeler
I would consider selling, but that assumes he has enough value
to move in a trade with Bryant back and Roethlisberger hurt. I
think Miller will land safely among the top TE2s when all said
and done. However, I tend to believe his first two games will
be the best he has to offer until Roethlisberger returns and,
even then, he’ll probably be just as much hit as miss.
Breakout player: Bryant. This is kind of an easy call since he’s
missed the first four games due to suspension. Owners need to
keep in mind that he is a touchdown-dependent receiver that will
probably have to play up to four games with Vick before he can
start generating the value that owners hoped he would when they
used a middle-round selection on him this summer. When Big Ben
returns, however, he should be a high-end WR3 most weeks.
Buy: Jeffery. As is the case with the number of these “buys”,
owners that have the luxury of a lot a depth at receiver may be
willing to take a chance on injured player. It’s entirely
possible that Jeffrey needs until the Week 7 bye to get healthy,
but I do like his chances of performing at a high-end WR2 level
once that happens.
Sell: Bennett. This is a bit of a cautious “sell”
simply because there are so few tight ends that produce anywhere
close to the level that Bennett does. However, “The Black
Unicorn” has long been a strong producer in September and
seen his numbers fall off dramatically thereafter. But there’s
more to it than that: at some point, Jeffrey should get healthy
and Royal will be around to take away a lot of the short targets,
possibly leaving Bennett as a touchdown-dependent player.
Buy: Johnson. I know targets are not the end-all and be-all for
receivers, but Megatron has seen plenty of opportunity and certainly
is not to blame for the running-game woes. Perhaps at age 30 his
9.4 YPC is as much a function of his slowing down as it is Detroit’s
offense in general, but I sincerely doubt it. Johnson is averaging
nearly 14 targets since Week 2 and, sooner or later, his rough matchups
will become a thing of the past.
Sell: I would say Tate here, but most owners have already benched
him and some are probably on the verge of cutting him if they
haven’t done so already.
Breakout player: Riddick. Still flying under the radar somewhat
in PPR leagues, if there is one player that’s going to benefit
from the Lions’ lack of running game, it will be their speedy
third-down back. I’d argue that his role needs to be scaled
back because Abdullah can do the same thing he does, but the Lions
obviously do not see things the same way I do.
Buy: Lacy. We’ve seen this movie before; Lacy starts out slow
and finishes out the season like gangbusters. I’m not sure
I like to count on that trends happening year after year, but “Fat
Eddie” is on pace for 920 yards rushing and four touchdowns
to go along with 24 receptions and 232 receiving yards; I highly
doubt those are his final numbers.
Sell: Jones. This is another one of those delayed “sells”.
As long as Adams is healing from his high-ankle sprain, I suspect
Jones will continue producing at the high-end WR2 he has been
up to now. However, the lack of targets concern me, even in an
offense as efficient as this one. I think he’ll be a solid
WR3 all season long, but fantasy is about maximizing value and
knowing when to get in as well is when to get out.
Breakout player: Montgomery. As long as Aaron Rodgers has been
the quarterback in Green Bay, he’s generally been able to
make at least three receivers viable in fantasy. Just because
Adams is out, that doesn’t mean the passing game is all
about Cobb and Jones. The Packers are creating ways to get the
ball in the rookie’s hands and it is entirely possible that
he ends up overtaking (or at least sharing time with) Adams by
the time he gets back.
Buy: Wallace. This is not a strong “buy” recommendation,
first and foremost. I think Wallace is at best a WR3 the rest of
the season, yet there appeared to be a fairly strong connection
between him and Bridgewater in what should’ve been a unforgiving
matchup against Denver in Week 4. My best guess is that in this
Peterson-centric offense, Wallace will be at his best in fantasy
when “All Day” has a difficult matchup.
Sell: Johnson. Read Tate above.
Breakout player: Diggs. It’s not uncommon for a player
to complement another player at the same position he plays at,
but Wallace went above and beyond the call in Week 4. Diggs was
wildly impressive against Denver, likely fast-tracking Cordarrelle
Patterson’s exit out of Minnesota and possibly stealing
Wright’s job in the slot. The main reason Diggs wasn’t
a first- or second-day pick this spring was his inability to stay
healthy in college at Maryland. At the very least, dynasty leaguers
should take note.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.