During the preseason, I promised to deliver updated projections
each quarter in an effort to help fantasy owners plan for the
immediate and near future. Because I’m covering all 32 teams
this week and there is a lot to cover, I’m going to get
right to it.
At least this time around, I’ve chosen to identify a “buy”
or “sell” candidate as well as a potential breakout
player for each team over the next month. Depending on the feedback
I receive on this piece, I may do the same when I attempt to project
the third and fourth quarters of the season following Weeks 8
and 12.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
Buy: Foster. Fantasy owners are an
impatient lot, so when a star returns and disappoints in his first
outing or two, the natural reaction is to panic. As far as I could
tell last week, Foster looked the same as he had in each of the
last few seasons. At worst, he’s a more injury-prone version
of Matt Forte. At best, he’s the Texans’ offensive centerpiece
with a remaining schedule that should be the envy of all fantasy
owners.
Sell: None.
Breakout player: Eventually, my
answer will be Strong, but he’s been a healthy inactive
most of the season. It’s quite likely with the pathetic
quarterback situation in Houston, no receiver will be overly useful
in fantasy this season other than Hopkins.
Buy: Gore. The overall production I have for Gore this quarter isn’t
overwhelming by any stretch of imagination, but it assumes that
Luck is healthy. If he’s not, Gore is going to see a significant
increase in workload, which might happen anyway. Assuming the 49ers’
all-time leading rusher can stop fumbling in the red zone, it seems
rather obvious the Colts should start putting more on his plate.
His remaining schedule isn’t overly daunting and it’s
important to note that Miami is the Colts’ Week 16 opponent.
Sell: Luck. Anyone who followed
my PMA series this preseason knew that Luck was in for a rough
start to the season, but there is obviously no way anyone could
predict he would be tied with Jameis Winston for the league lead
in interceptions and have the NFL’s worst quarterback rating.
However, my concern is not with a slow start so much as it is
my concern over his shoulder. I suffered a shoulder subluxation
during my athletic career and it affected me the rest of that
season. Combine that experience with the knowledge that Luck operates
behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and you
have a recipe for potential disaster.
Breakout player: Dorsett. I’m not going to pretend to understand
how Luck’s connection with Johnson was the story of the
summer in Indianapolis, but that’s another story for another
day. As long as it remains the case, there’s an opportunity
for a third receiver to step up and be fantasy-relevant –
a job that should go to a player that reminds many of Hilton.
If Luck is able to get his shoulder right at some point in the
next month, it seems reasonable he’ll be able to start taking
some deep shots. If that is in fact the case, Dorsett would have
some value as an end-of-bench option.
Buy: Thomas. I’m not overly crazy about investing in the Jaguars’
offense, but it seems reasonable that a player with top-10 ability
at his position is a reasonable “buy” option, especially
considering his ability to convert in the red zone. His true impact
probably won’t be felt until the second half of the season,
but I do like his chances of being a starting fantasy option before
Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye.
Sell: None.
Breakout player: Hurns has already
emerged and I don’t believe in Bortles yet the season, so
the two most likely candidates do not qualify for this honor,
in my opinion.
Buy: Wright. There are plenty of reports this summer to suggest
that Mariota had a “special connection” with Wright
and that has played out so far the season. Even though he has posted
two 20-plus PPR fantasy-point performances in three tries so far,
I get the sense Wright is still flying under the radar. Perhaps
even better yet, Tennessee’s already had its bye, so any owner
acquiring him will be able to snag a weekly WR3.
Sell: Mariota. This is yet another one that pains me, because
I believe in the talent. With that said, the coaches are torn
on letting the No. 2 overall pick use his natural athleticism
to accentuate his passing skills, thereby limiting the fantasy
quarterback he could be. Given that we are talking about HC Ken
Whisenhunt, I don’t think we can just assume he’s
going to make the right call here (or at least the one that fantasy
owners want).
Breakout player: Green-Beckham.
Including the criticism that I just gave Whisenhunt, I have reservations
about DGB having any kind of substantial impact in 2015. At some
point, however, it makes too much sense to use the rookie’s size
and incredible athleticism much in the same way Pittsburgh used
Martavis Bryant last year. Green-Beckham needs to be owned in
every league, but there’s no way of telling at this moment if
that’s going to be a wasted bench spot or not.
Buy: Coleman. Perhaps I’m just being a contrarian here and,
yes, I realize players can lose their jobs due to injury. It’s
quite possible I’m reading too much into the situation, but
I do find it notable that two different staffs and regimes have
both felt as if Freeman wasn’t good enough to be a starter
out of training camp. Regardless, I would be stunned if this is
not a committee backfield before the end of the year.
Sell: Freeman. Can we realistically expect Freeman to continue
producing the level (or anywhere close to it) he has over the
last two weeks? Of course not. The good news is that given where
he was selected in most drafts, most of his owners can simply
enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts. The reality of the situation
is that he wasn’t able to win the job in camp with nearly
identical rushing numbers (minus his seven touchdowns) to the
ones he posted as a rookie last season. It’s obvious he’s
a fit in OC Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but I doubt Coleman
is relegated to bench duty the rest of the season either.
Breakout player: Hankerson has
already made his presence known, pretty much stealing the one
candidate for this honor. If injuries should strike Freeman and
Coleman, then Terron Ward would be my selection here.
Sell: Newton. The Panthers’ quarterback is on pace for
172 carries, which would shatter his previous career high by 45.
Moreover, Newton is the only quarterback (two instances) since
1972 with more than 125 rushing attempts in a season. While there’s
always the chance that a player built as well as Newton can withstand
the punishment, I’m not going to be the one that bets on
him playing all 16 games AND remain a semi-effective passer at
the same time.
Breakout player: Artis-Payne. Why
I have serious doubts about Newton’s ability to continue
running at the rate he has, I think it’s even more likely
Stewart will miss some time due to injury once again. The Auburn
product is nothing special in terms of talent, but should be able
to come reasonably close to matching the meager production Stewart
has managed in limited action so far this season.
Buy: Spiller/Robinson. It took a little
bit longer than most expected for Spiller to make his impact in
the passing game, but his game-winning 80-yard touchdown catch in
overtime in Week 4 is the type of play that tends to stick in the
mind of coaches. HC Sean Payton was already critical of himself
for not giving Spiller more snaps and it’s quite likely we saw the
beginning of the new and updated version of Darren Sproles in Payton’s
offense last week. I’ve chosen to include Robinson as well since
I believe he is a more-than-capable replacement for Ingram, who
has rarely ever made it through season without missing multiple
games.
Sell: Ingram. Congratulations if you knew that Ingram leads the
Saints in receptions (22). Now consider if he maintains that pace,
he will finish with 88 – 59 more than his previous career
high. While Ingram has improved as a runner, he’s only averaging
3.6 YPC. He’s also generating a ton of his value as a result
of his work in the passing game, which we can only hope is the
result of the Saints working Spiller in slowly. While I think
he will still contribute somewhat heavily in the passing game,
I think his value is about to take a tumble. Last but not least,
Ingram has played more than 13 games only once in his career.
Breakout player: Snead. This one’s been happening for a
couple weeks already. While Snead cannot be expected to score
many touchdowns, he appears to be getting open at will and has
become a trusted option for Brees.
Buy: Evans. This one’s pretty simple. Evans figures to be
highly inefficient while Winston is learning on the job, but it
seems like a pretty good bet he is going to see plenty of targets
as the season progresses. Owners should not expect his 17-target
Week 3 to become the norm, but the combination of Tampa Bay’s
defense and Winston putting the Bucs in the hole on a weekly basis
should allow for plenty of volume.
Sell: Martin. It’s good to see Martin running like he did
as a rookie again, so this recommendation is all about my belief
that the offensive line just doesn’t have the manpower to
get it done consistently this year.
Breakout player: Seferian-Jenkins. We already saw what ASJ could
do in Week 1 and his return is certain to help Winston. Considering
defenses will be spending the majority of their time trying to
figure out how to deal with the size Tampa Bay has at receiver,
it only makes sense that Seferian-Jenkins will get plenty of work
underneath and in the red zone.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.