During the preseason, I promised to deliver updated projections
each quarter in an effort to help fantasy owners plan for the
immediate and near future. Because I’m covering all 32 teams
this week and there is a lot to cover, I’m going to get
right to it.
At lWest this time around, I’ve chosen to identify a “buy”
or “sell” candidate as well as a potential breakout
player for each team over the next month. Depending on the feedback
I receive on this piece, I may do the same when I attempt to project
the third and fourth quarters of the season following Weeks 8
and 12.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at lWest one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
Buy: Anderson. It has become abundantly
clear Anderson is not going to meet preseason projections this season,
but that doesn’t shake my belief that he’s the best fit for the
offense HC Gary Kubiak wants to run. Kubiak and OC Rick Dennison
have proven time and time again they can develop solid or great
offensive lines, but the Broncos have to be able to avoid injuries
long enough up front to establish some continuity. There’s a very
good chance that won’t happen until the second half of the season.
Sell: Hillman. There’s no question Hillman has improved
from last year. However, I see him more as a temporary solution
to a much bigger problem, which is the Broncos’ inability
to create running lanes inside. Until that happens, Hillman gives
Denver its best shot at a running game simply because he has a
better chance than Anderson to cover up the mistakes the offensive
line is making. I don’t buy Hillman as a permanent solution
simply because he’s never shown enough durability to handle
the job on a long-term basis.
Breakout player: Fowler. I use the term “breakout”
loosely here simply because there isn’t going to be enough
volume in a Kubiak offense to feed Thomas, Sanders and another
receiver. It should be noted, however, that Fowler can get deep
and is emerging as the type of player Denver probably hoped Cody
Latimer was going to be the season. If Thomas or Sanders is forced
to miss time this season, I’d be willing to bet that Fowler
could be a serviceable WR3.
Buy: West. There is a 99 percent likelihood West is sitting on the
waiver wire in your league and probably a 50 percent chance most
of the owners in your league have never heard of him. With that
said, HC Andy Reid hinted that West has moved (at least temporarily)
ahead of Knile Davis on the depth chart. While it’s very possible
West and Davis would share carries if Charles got hurt, it’s
almost always better to snag the player that is the next man up
on the depth chart for fantasy purposes.
Sell: Maclin. This week or next may be the ideal time to trade
Maclin. For all the production he’s posted over the last
two weeks, it still doesn’t change the fact is no better
than third in line behind Charles and Kelce in the red zone. Much
like Green Bay in Week 3, the Chiefs spent most of the second
half against Cincinnati trailing by more than one score. I believe
we can safely say “garbage time” has accounted for
most of Maclin’s production this season.
Breakout player: Conley. This is another recommendation for the
dynasty crowd, if only because Kansas City’s passing attack
already struggles to make one receiver fantasy-relevant. However,
it does appear as if the rookie has passed Albert Wilson as the
second receiver in Kansas City.
Buy: Cooper. The No. 4 overall pick is about to embark on a very
difficult stretch of pass defenses, so there may be a window of
opportunity here. With that said, Cooper has already burned Jimmy
Smith for a touchdown and posted six catches on six targets for
87 yards in Joe Haden’s coverage in Week 3. Tracy Porter “held”
the rookie to three receptions on a targets for 23 yards in his
coverage last week, but it is important to note Cooper scored his
touchdown out of the slot and is already double teams. While no
one can be expected to repeat Odell Beckham Jr.’s magical
2014, Cooper is on pace for 96 catches, 1,356 yards and eight scores
– a pace he could easily maintain given the fact he has seen
no fewer than nine targets in any game this season.
Sell: I was tempted to put Crabtree here, but there should be
plenty of opportunity for the ex-49er to produce low-end WR3 numbers
given how much attention Cooper is drawing and how little the
tight ends are being utilized (injuries have contributed to tight
ends’ lack of involvement).
Breakout player: Roberts. Before getting shut out last week,
the West Alabama product made some noise with touchdown catches
in each of his previous two contests. At 6-2 and 195 pounds, Roberts
is getting some work out of the slot and taking advantage of his
opportunities. It’s also worth noting that Roberts has seen
162 snaps - only 31 fewer than Crabtree and 95 more than fourth
receiver Holmes.
Buy: Woodhead. To be honest, both Woodhead and Gordon are good buys
for very different reasons. Woodhead continues to be underrated
since he is considered little more than a change-of-pace back, yet
he has produced consistently enough to be the RB6 in PPR leagues.
Better yet, his role isn’t going to change anytime soon. Gordon
is a solid buy because his owners are likely getting frustrated
by the amount of time and high-leverage snaps Woodhead continues
to see. It seems reasonable by the second half of the season, however,
that the rookie will at least be splitting red-zone work with Woodhead
and become the preferred option at the goal line.
Sell: Johnson. Unlike many of the “sells” I have
mentioned thus far, I don’t believe Johnson is going to
fall off the fantasy map. However, I do believe the return of
Gates will stunt his early-season production quite a bit and make
him a bit too inconsistent to count on as a weekly starter.
Breakout player: Inman makes for a nice one-week pickup in the
likely event that Johnson and Floyd miss Week 5, but he’s
unlikely to have much value after that. Green is going to see
a significant drop in value with the return of Gates, but I suspect
he’ll be more involved this year than he has been in previous
seasons.
Buy: Brown. It’s entirely possible that owners are a bit disappointed
in Brown considering he was the talk of Arizona camp for the second
straight offseason. With that said, it’s also entirely possible
that Fitzgerald’s incredible start will start leading to more
one-on-one opportunities for Brown down the field. And while Floyd
figures to get his share of those as well, it’s unlikely the
chemistry Brown has built with Palmer since his arrival will force
him to take a backseat to Floyd.
Sell: Fitzgerald. Much like Devonta Freeman, I’m not looking
to sell Fitzgerald because the odds are strong he was selected
to be a bench player for most fantasy teams, so getting WR1 production
from a WR3 doesn’t seem like such a bad deal. There’s
no reason to think that Fitzgerald can’t remain highly productive,
but the 120-catch, 1,728-yard and 20-touchdown pace he is currently
on is highly unlikely to be realized, especially for a 32-year-old
receiver.
Breakout player: David Johnson. The Northern Iowa rookie has
already flashed on multiple occasions this season, so this is
a reminder to keep him stashed even though HC Bruce Arians has
said his playing time will be reduced as a result of Ellington
returning from injury. Ellington is a poor bet to stay healthy
and the 30-year-old Chris Johnson probably shouldn’t be
expected to keep producing at the rate he has through four games.
Buy: Austin. Perhaps there are a few readers that recall how highly
I spoke of the former No. 8 overall pick during Big Board season.
Austin will struggle for weekly consistency in large part because
of the offense he plays in, but in an offense that commits to using
his many talents, he can be a “splash” fantasy asset
that occasionally wins a week for his team. He’s ideally suited
for a fantasy bench role at the moment, although it’s going
to be hard for the Rams not to use him more often when he can be
as productive as he was last week against a very good Arizona defense.
Sell: None.
Breakout player: Quick. The trade of Chris Givens to Baltimore
last week not only happened because the Ravens needed a deep threat,
but also because it freed up a roster spot for Quick. The reasons
behind his inactivity have been guarded by the Rams like a national
secret, but HC Jeff Fisher has made it clear his shoulder is no
longer an issue. Quick was insanely productive considering how
poor the St. Louis offense was last year, so a similar burst out
of the gate in 2015 can’t and shouldn’t be ruled out.
Buy: Hyde. It’s hard to believe that only three weeks ago,
Hyde’s value had reached such a point that it seemed feasible
he could finish as a top-10 fantasy back. While the last three weeks
haven’t changed him at all, many of San Francisco’s
weaknesses have been exposed – including the play of Kaepernick.
As a result, Hyde is probably little more than a flex option at
the moment. However, his prospects get a bit better after the Week
10 bye.
Buy: Baldwin. Someone forgot to send
Wilson the memo he was supposed to force-feed Graham the ball. Behind
what appears to be a very leaky front five that actually has little
relative experience playing on the offensive line, it makes plenty
of sense for this offense to be tight-end centric. That obviously
has not happened. Wilson’s ability to turn almost every pass
attempt into something you might see on the playground does tend
to allow receivers to shake free downfield, however, and Baldwin
has benefited the most from it thus far. Wilson is going to need
to continue to create for this offense to be successful, so there’s
no reason to believe Seattle will shy away from this formula anytime
soon.
Sell: Lynch. I may be torn on this pick more than any other I
have made up to this point. On one hand, Jackson’s high-ankle
sprain would seem to make Lynch a three-down back for the foreseeable
future. On the other hand, the multitude of injuries he’s
already had to deal with the season would seem to suggest the
cave is about to collapse. He appears to be a game-time decision
again this week, possibly leaving his owners with a fourth straight
week without double-digit fantasy points from their RB1.
Breakout player: Lockett. The rookie has been a popular breakout
pick for many ever since training camp, although a true breakout
is unlikely in this offense. Nevertheless, he played 37 of the
67 snaps against Detroit and would seem to be a logical pick to
steal even more snaps from Kearse as the season progresses. It’s
doubtful he’ll be anything more than WR5 in 2015, but he
could probably fill in seamlessly for Baldwin if the veteran were
to miss significant time.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.