As I have for the past seven-plus years, I will share my thoughts
on my NFL.com
Playoff Challenge entry and playoff money leagues with Fuzzy's
Fantasy Football as we head into the third week of our postseason
odyssey. Last year, I combined the latter with DraftKings to provide
an even more comprehensive NFL Playoff resource. Let’s get
right to it:
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules & Prizing”
link on the NFL.com
entry page. Much of the content immediately below is included
on the “How to Play” page, although the information
I provide below should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K
and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field
performance during their game, and if your player's team wins,
you will have the option to carry that player over to the next
round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to his score
(which will be referred to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example, if you pick Aaron
Rodgers in the Wild Card round and the Packers win, you can
carry him over to the Divisional Round, and earn two times (2x)
the points he earns in his divisional round game. If Green Bay
wins again, you can carry Rodgers into the Conference Championship
round for 3x the points and, if the Packers make the Super Bowl,
you can earn 4x the points. In addition, a user can select a player/defense
in the Wild Card round even if their team has a bye into the Divisional
Round. In this case, the user would not earn any points for the
Wild Card round, but be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional
round, since the player was on the team’s roster for two weekly
scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would also apply
as long as that player’s team continues to advance in the NFL
Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the rules
and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs are worth
four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here than
in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2) all
field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which means
we are more concerned about volume of field goals than distance
– unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from
50-plus (DraftKings does not use kickers); 3) this is a non-PPR
format, which obviously favors the big-play threats (both Fuzzy's
and DraftKings are PPR); and 4) team wins are worth five points,
so picking a “winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown
prior to factoring in the modifiers.
Let's get the No. 1 rule of this game out of the way right now:
if you have a good feeling about which
two teams will meet in the Super Bowl, build your lineup exclusively
from players from those two teams. Most previous playoff
challenge champions' lineups are made up entirely of Super Bowl
participants. (In other words, it is important to project the
Super Bowl entrants first and figure out what players from those
teams to use second.) The multipliers are everything in this contest,
so playing the week-to-week matchups is nearly meaningless. Think
about it this way: if I told you that your regular-season fantasy
team's scoring would double in Week 2, triple in Week 3 and quadruple
in Week 4 if you simply left it the same, would it affect your
draft strategy? Of course it would. The big week your team might
post in the first week of this challenge - in the somewhat unlikely
event you played the matchups to a tee - is going to seem rather
insignificant in early February when every passing touchdown is
worth 16 points and every other TD is worth 24 and the top teams
in this competition are scoring 200-300 (or perhaps more) points
per week.
Three out of the four teams I predicted to make it this far two
weeks ago are still alive, including my two Super Bowl picks.
While there is one player pick in particular I might end up regretting,
I'm still not entirely sure I didn't get it right. Anyway, I think
that mystery player will become obvious soon enough, but I was
not so swayed by what I saw from the player I may have whiffed
on last weekend that I am going to change my lineup and risk losing
out on a complete 4x lineup in the Super Bowl.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady/Ben Roethlisberger/Matt Ryan/Aaron Rodgers
The call: Matt
Ryan (x3).Soon enough, Ryan will be
considered among the best quarterbacks in the league. (Hopefully
sooner, especially if OC Kyle Shanahan bolts for the 49ers head-coaching
job in a week or so.) Until then, Ryan goes from tearing up an
Earl Thomas-less secondary last week to one this week which does
not have a cornerback who graded higher than 45th in the league,
according to Pro Football Focus (converted nickel CB Micah Hyde).
Green Bay has no defender with anything close to the size/speed
combination necessary to stop Julio Jones, nor does it have a
player capable of running with Taylor Gabriel consistently. Heck,
it's even questionable if the Packers have linebackers capable
of tracking Devonta Freeman and/or Tevin Coleman.
In short, the Atlanta offense versus the Green Bay defense is
a huge mismatch almost across the board, and Shanahan knows it
will be in his best interest to put as many touchdowns on the
board as possible to provide the Falcons' defense a bit of cushion
against Rodgers & Co. As you will see in the DK/Fuzzy's section,
it will be a huge upset (in my opinion) if Ryan doesn't post at
least 300 yards and three scores this weekend. Rodgers is probably
the only other option that will need to approach that kind of
production, but I'm not sure he's going to get there without Jordy
Nelson AND with Davante Adams nursing injuries to both ankles.
Freeman's dual-threat ability makes him
a no-brainer.
The call: LeGarrette
Blount (x3) and Devonta
Freeman (x3). There were reports during the regular
season New England was saving Lewis for the playoffs; it sure
looked to be the case against the Houston Texans in the Divisional
Round. While folks will be tempted to ride that wave in this challenge
as well in DFS, I'm not entirely sure we've seen the last of high-end
production from Blount this postseason. I wish I knew how much
more weight I am supposed to put Lewis' "promotion"
than Blount's poorly timed illness last week, but I don't. Lewis
has undoubtedly earned at least an even split of the carries going
forward (and then some), but running backs who rushed for a franchise-record
18 touchdowns during the regular season usually don't get shelved
for a potential Super Bowl run. Owners who have stuck with Blount
to this point should go ahead and stay the course not only because
the upside remains so high, but also because the Patriots are
probably going to want to rely on a more physical running game
the rest of the way in order to "ground" the high-scoring
offenses they will face will face each of the next two games (assuming
they get by Pittsburgh).
Prior to the start of the postseason, I seriously debated whether
I should pick Coleman over Freeman in order to be contrarian.
I also considered playing both Falcons' backs as a way to double-down
on my Atlanta pick to make the Super Bowl. The reason had nothing
to do with Freeman's talent or production, but because Coleman
is a better bet to break a huge scoring run, which can make a
huge difference in this non-PPR format. In the end, it is simply
too hard to go against Freeman's consistent workload and dual-threat
ability, which makes him the play yet again here. A consistent
bet for at least 18 touches every week, Freeman already posted
a serviceable 17.8 fantasy-point total against the Packers in
Week 8 in this scoring format on 11 carries and four catches.
Atlanta's defense has played at a much higher level over the second
half of the season, so a larger workload could be in his future
this time around. The Falcons are one of the few teams capable
of trading offensive blows with Green Bay for 60 minutes and should
find the red zone at least a handful of times Sunday. It's a good
bet one (if not two or more) of those trips will end with Freeman
converting from a few yards out.
The call: Julian
Edelman (x3) and Julio
Jones (x3). Pittsburgh slot CB William Gay graded
out as PFF's 10th-best corner this season, so Edelman may have
to work harder than his fellow receivers to live up to his usual
standards. Nevertheless, Edelman is the one constant in the Patriots'
passing game with Rob Gronkowski on the shelf and the only New
England player who can be counted on for at least 10 targets.
Despite this infrequency in which he scores touchdowns, the slot
machine has been targeted fewer than 11 times only once since
Week 10, while his YPC has been over 10 in every game since Week
12 (seven single-digit YPC efforts prior to then). With that kind
of yardage production from Edelman, scoring touchdowns is a bonus,
even in a standard scoring format such as this one.
Jones' toe injury is a bit of a concern, but he's going to get
his shot at the same defense that had no prayer stopping Dez Bryant
last week. Let's not forget Jones has more viable threats surrounding
him then Bryant and is one of the few receivers in this league
who has an edge on the Cowboys' wideout in terms of talent. Barring
a complete sellout by the Packers to keep him in check (something
Green Bay can't afford to do with all of Atlanta's weapons), there
isn't a likely game script this week that doesn't favor Jones
in some way. Ladarius Gunter has shadowed both Odell Beckham Jr.
and Bryant thus far in the playoffs, so it'd be an upset if he
doesn't do the same with Julio. (OBJ could have easily had a big
game if it wasn't for drops, while Bryant exploded.) A 100-yard
day should be considered Jones' floor (assuming the Falcons' running
game doesn't dominate), while his ceiling is sky-high - even a
15-catch game would not surprise me.
Tight Ends
Martellus Bennett/Jared Cook
The call: Martellus
Bennett (x3). Bennett has been nearly impossible
to use for most of this season because he hasn't been healthy.
Having said that, all the multipliers in the world aren't going
to help owners in this challenge if he can't provide more than
one catch for four yards. Cook's big day last weekend alone may
have given him more fantasy points than Bennett will score over
the remainder of the postseason. Still, the promise of a 3x and
4x from Bennett makes it hard to change now, as a touchdown this
week is worth 18 points to me, while a score in two weeks will
be worth 24.
Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski/Chris Boswell/Matt Bryant/Mason Crosby
The call: Matt
Bryant (x3). No change here either. Pittsburgh's
red zone struggles against the Chiefs make Boswell an appealing
option against another good scoring defense this weekend. Gostkowski's
status as a heavy favorite to make the Super Bowl is alluring.
However, I'll stick with a home kicker for a potent offense in
a dome over the other alternatives just about every time.
Defense/Special Teams
Patriots/Steelers/Falcons
The call: Patriots
(x3). New England isn't likely to shoot itself in
the foot this week after last week's surprising turnover-filled
performance. The Patriots rarely be themselves and are a good
bet to score 30-plus points again this week, so there aren't many
ways the Steelers are going to score fantasy points. Similarly,
there is no reason to believe Green Bay will suddenly commit a
ton of mistakes with Rodgers playing some of the best football
in his life. The Falcons may get a few sacks on him, but that
might be about it. Similarly, the Packers' defense is not an option
against the best and most well-rounded offense in the league.
Roethlisberger's penchant for throwing interceptions and playing
poorly on the road is probably the one hope owners have for a
decent D/ST option this week, so the Patriots should remain the
obvious choice.
Since the pick-your-studs competition with Fuzzy's and the salary
cap game of DraftKings essentially use the same PPR scoring (six
points for passing touchdowns with Fuzzy's versus four fantasy
points with DraftKings; three bonus points for 300 yards passing
or 100 yards rushing/receiving versus no such bonus with Fuzzy's
being the biggest differences), I'm going to essentially combine
the two again this postseason. I think by projecting each remaining
team one week at a time, I will be able to kill two birds with
one stone in this regard.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. The
players I have highlighted in red are ones I feel should be roster
staples. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar value
to each player I have projected, followed by their projected point
total in that format (DraftKings and then Fuzzy's). Because I
went into some detail above, I won't spend a great deal of time
explaining each projection here - only some of the more notable
ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point
total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
As much as Big Ben looks like a potential value play here, he's
not. Over his last 26 regular-season games, Roethlisberger has thrown
29 interceptions. If you include his four playoff games over the
last two years, he's thrown 32 in 30 games. Of those 32 picks, 17
have come on the road. This season, Big Ben is averaging 238 yards
passing on the road. His only two elite road fantasy efforts this
season came in Week 1 against the Washington Redskins and in Week
12 versus a shorthanded Indianapolis Colts defense. I could easily
go much deeper than this to make a point, but I won't. There is
virtually no evidence to suggest this will be a blowup spot for
Roethlisberger.
I'm fairly certain Brady will have a high ownership based on
his price point, but he is the one quarterback of this bunch who
will most likely not need to air it out 40-plus times. When you
consider the likelihood Ryan and Rodgers may be in a race to see
what team can score 40 points first, that alone means it is worth
paying up for either quarterback in DFS this week. I believe the
line between the two NFC signal-callers is thin, with the main
differences being the Packers' woefully thin defense working in
Ryan's favor and a number of receiver injuries in Green Bay working
against Rodgers. Ryan and Rodgers will serve as my quarterbacks
in probably 75 percent of my DFS leagues this weekend, with Ryan
leading a few more lineups than Rodgers.
It goes without saying if Bell is going to come with a $10,300 price
tag, he needs to hit big (and probably score at least two touchdowns)
in order to be worth starting in DFS. Last week, that did not happen.
New England did not give up multiple touchdowns to any running back
this season and allowed seven scores to the position all season
long, which is probably enough reason to shy away from Bell in DFS
this week. Obviously, he remains a top-two play in PPR formats regardless,
as the Steelers seem to have no problem feeding him the ball 30
times. The player of this group most likely to exceed expectations
is Freeman, who scored twice in the Week 8 meeting (albeit with
Coleman out due to injury). Atlanta's rushing attack is in synch
more now than it was then, and it seems a pretty good bet Freeman
will surpass the 58 total yards he amassed against the Packers more
than two months ago.
Montgomery played 51 snaps last week, suggesting he has a pretty
good grasp on the lead-back role in Green Bay. The problem with
that, however, is he has exactly 11 carries in each of his two
playoff games and exceeded that threshold only once during the
regular season. As such, he is a bit of a knockoff version of
Freeman in that he usually makes up for it in the passing game
but lacks the same big-play ability. Nevertheless, $5,600 is a
nice price for someone with 20-point upside. As noted above, I'm
skeptical of Lewis' "promotion" (RBBC has long been
the hallmark of Patriots' offenses). New England knew it had little
reason to be frightened by the Texans' offense and probably had
no desire to slug it out - if it didn't have to - with the league's
top defense, so letting Lewis dominate snaps made sense last week.
Limiting possessions may take on more importance going forward,
however, as Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Green Bay are all legitimate
threats to keep pace with the Patriots on offense. For that reason,
I wouldn't blame owners if they want to fade Lewis in favor of
Blount this week. With that said, I plan on starting Lewis in
about a quarter of my DFS lineups to protect myself against the
whims of "The Hoodie". For the reasons I've already
mentioned earlier in this piece (and because of their price point),
there's a good chance I will start Coleman and Blount in as many
leagues as I do Bell.
The playoffs have been given me a bit of delayed gratification in
that my preseason faith in Cobb has been justified, albeit due to
a ton of injuries. He is not only shaping up to be the only reasonably
healthy receiver of Green Bay's top four wideouts, but he could
also potentially be the best play of the week at his position because
of it. I cannot bring myself to back off Jones despite his toe injury,
while I have a bad feeling the Patriots will keep Brown out of the
end zone. No matter, as Brown has posted lines of 9-133-1 and 7-106-0
against the Patriots over the last two meetings. His $8,800 price
tag makes him a better buy than usual, but Big Ben's road woes point
to him probably throwing no more than one touchdown this weekend.
Do you want to put all your chips on that score going to AB?
Edelman is probably the safest bet of this group for 20 PPR fantasy
points, but he doesn't find the end zone with enough frequency
to give owners much hope he'll take a good day and make it a great
one. As noted above, he may have the toughest matchup of all the
Patriot receivers in William Gay. He'll get his numbers like he
usually does, but this is probably not a blowup spot for him.
After Floyd nearly laid an egg last week in Mitchell's absence,
I think it is conceivable Tom Brady tries to rekindle the spark
he had with Mitchell late in the season. At $3,700, he could easily
turn out to be the best value play at the position. With Martellus Bennett hurt and Pittsburgh certain to pay attention to Dion Lewis,
I could easily see the rookie converting a score inside the 10.
ESPN's
Mike Clay tweeted Wednesday (Jan. 18) Green Bay allowed the
most fantasy football points to players who lined up on the right
side of the formation than any other team in the league this season.
That is the spot Gabriel runs roughly half of his routes. (Clay's
tweet also suggests owners should be as optimistic about Cobb
and pessimistic about Brown as I was in the above paragraph, albeit
for a slightly different but no less important reasons.)
There are only two other receivers I will consider using in DFS
given the injury information we have now: Allison and Sanu. Allison
is dealing with a hamstring injury as we speak, but he is poised
to be no worse than Aaron Rodgers' third option on Sunday, behind
only Cobb and Jared Cook. If Allison cannot go, I will probably
invest in a few shares of Jeff Janis just to see if playoff lightning
can strike twice. I'm less certain how I feel about Sanu, who
I projected to score before reconsidering. I think it is very
possible each of Atlanta's top three receivers score - leaving
Ryan with five for the day - but that's a tall order for any quarterback
in even the most ideal matchups. (Besides, I think 315 yards and
four touchdowns captures how I feel about Ryan's upside.)
The apocalypse may be upon us and hell might actually be freezing
over. When else in his career has Cook been the clear-cut top
play of the week at his position? (I have long been a Cook fan,
but it has been a while, no?) Atlanta hasn't been nearly the sieve
against tight ends it was early in the season, but it has still
showed some vulnerability against the position during its second-half
surge. With Nelson likely out again and Adams likely a bit hobbled
from dual ankle injuries, Cook may be asked to take on a bigger
role again. Hooper had a serviceable game (five catches, 41 yards)
in the Week 8 meeting and is probably my favorite non-Cook option
at the position. I would want some exposure to James and Bennett
this week just to protect myself against the fluke touchdown either
one might score, but I think I would cap my exposure to both players
at 10 percent.
Key for kickers and defense/special teams
units: XP - Extra point FG - Field goal PA - Points allowed TO - Total turnovers TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
With four strong offenses playing this weekend, there doesn't figure
to be much in the way of fantasy points from D/ST units. Unsurprisingly,
the best bet of the bunch is the Patriots, who will remain a threat
for a kick-return touchdown as long as Dion Lewis remains in that
role. Antonio Brown is obviously a playmaker and has been returning
punts for a while, but it appears to me he has been told to be very
"safe" doing so, as I don't get the sense he is looking
to score with the same zest as most returners. In short, pay up
for the Patriots D/ST in DFS this week when possible, but don't
stress the decision too long. As far as I'm concerned, New England
or Atlanta should see the highest ownership percentage this week,
and it really shouldn't be all that close.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
