Team Fit: Mond's biggest positives are his experience (47 games,
44 starts, 1,548 career dropbacks per Pro Football Focus) and
the fact he was coached by Jimbo Fisher, who is notoriously demanding
of his quarterbacks. His biggest drawback is that despite all
of his experience, Mond's career completion percentage is still
just a hair under 60 percent (although it did improve each year
and topped out at 63.3 percent in 2020). Even with that improvement,
it would be wrong to suggest he possesses anything more than average
accuracy. He makes up for it a bit with his ability to make plays
with his feet and throw on the run. To that end, he is one of
only three quarterbacks in SEC history to pass for at least 9,000
yards and run for 1,000. Where he struggles is the more nuanced
parts of the position - such as putting some air on his deep ball
(he does have a big arm though) - his accuracy throwing to the
intermediate part of the field and overall awareness of what the
defense is trying to do to him. His ability to move and throw
on the run should be a good fit in new OC Klint Kubiak's offense,
but he'll sit behind Kirk Cousins for the foreseeable future.
What does it mean in redraft? Almost nothing. Cousins is locked
into the starting job in Minnesota.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back next week.
3.03 - QB Davis Mills, Texans
Team Fit: Mills was the top-ranked quarterback recruit in the
country in 2017 (ahead of Tua Tagovailoa), but his college career
never got on track due to multiple knee injuries. Thus, he enters
the league after playing only 14 games in college (11 starts)
and has not played more than eight games in any season. Surprisingly,
he still does offer some mobility, but it's fair to say he isn't
the same player who rushed for 23 scores in high school. Relative
to how much he was actually on the field, the Atlanta native may
have as much experience under center and working out in a traditional
play-action passing attack as any Day 1 or Day 2 quarterback not
named Trey Lance. Mills' addition is probably a necessary evil
for a team that doesn't know where it stands with Deshaun Watson
or what his future is.
What does it mean in redraft? Very little. Even if Watson is
suspended for the season, Mills will almost certainly serve as
Tyrod Taylor's backup. In that scenario, there's an outside shot
he could see some snaps last in the season, but it wouldn’t
be worth much.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back next week.
3.14 - WR Josh Palmer, Chargers
Team Fit: The Chargers became dangerously thin at receiver near
the end of last season after Keenan Allen and Mike Williams got
hurt, but there's more to this pick than that. Williams is in
the final year of his contract and has struggled to live up to
his first-round draft stock because of injury. Palmer is quite
possibly his long-term replacement. The native of Ontario, Canada
is not unlike Williams in that he does most of his damage downfield
and in contested-catch situations. While Palmer never caught more
than 34 passes or topped 484 receiving yards, he did flash the
kind of potential that he could take over as a starter opposite
Allen as early as 2022. How so? Three of his four touchdown catches
this season came against high-end cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain,
Tyson Campbell and DJ Daniel. The quarterback play at Tennessee
was not particularly good, so he will benefit greatly from having
Justin Herbert slinging him the rock.
What does it mean in redraft? WR5 initially. Williams has not
able to stay healthy, so Palmer should be able to take over for
him if that continues. Until then, he figures to work along with
Williams on the perimeter while Allen mans the slot in three-wide
packages. Given the combination of his skill-set and Herbert's
talent, Palmer could move into the WR4 conversation later in the
season.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
3.18 - TE Hunter Long, Dolphins
Team Fit: Long is an interesting pick for a team that already
has Mike Gesicki in the fold, but the latter is entering the final
year of his rookie contract. The Boston College product is not
in the same class athletically as Gesicki (few are), but he was
still the featured receiver in the Eagles' passing attack. He
projects to be a dependable short and intermediate target in the
Austin Hooper mold. It's more likely than not he is a 20-30 snap
player as a rookie while the Dolphins decide on Gesicki.
What does it mean in redraft? TE3. Gesicki should be given every
chance to prove himself in 2021.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back next week.
3.19 - WR Dyami Brown, Football Team
Team Fit: Brown might have as well been Randy Moss against Virginia
last season, going off for 11 catches, 240 yards and three touchdowns.
That kind of production wasn't always the case for Brown, but
he is at his best when he can put his 4.44 speed to work vertically.
He is not merely a deep threat, although that is primarily how
North Carolina used him (18.4-yard average depth of target, per
Pro Football Focus). Perhaps one of the reasons why the Tar Heels
were reluctant to expand his route tree was due to the fact he
was credited with 15 drops over the last two seasons (although
only four came this year). It seems likely his initial role with
Washington will be the same as it was in Chapel Hill, and it will
be up to Brown to get a bit strong and sharpen his route-running
ability if he hopes to be anything more than that. He could emerge
as a starter down the road, but those issues are some of the issues
he will need to get corrected.
What does it mean in redraft? WR6. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel are locked in as starters, so Brown's most likely avenue
of playing time is beating out Cam Sims and/or Antonio Gandy-Golden
as a field-stretching specialist.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
3.20 - TE Tommy Tremble, Panthers
Team Fit: Tremble's primary responsibility in Carolina - much
as was the case at Notre Dame - will be to pulverize edge defenders
and linebackers in the running game. As long as he continues to
excel in that area as he did in college, he'll have a job in the
NFL. There is upside for more, however. Tremble had the misfortune
of playing behind two of the top tight end prospects (Cole Kmet
and Michael Mayer). The former three-star recruit is more athletic
than his blocking tight end reputation would suggest; his triangle
numbers (4.6 speed, 36-inch vertical and 122-inch broad jump)
and footwork suggest he could eventually emerge into a weapon
in the receiving game. Ian Thomas has not taken over the job as
expected, so there is an opening for Tremble to step in and serve
as a short-area option for Sam Darnold.
What does it mean in redraft? Very little. Carolina is once again
three deep with quality receivers following the selection of Terrace
Marshall Jr and figures to feed Christian McCaffrey another 100
or so looks again in 2021.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
3.22 - WR Amari Rodgers, Packers
Team Fit: Once upon a time, Aaron Rodgers was happy and had a
buddy in the slot named Randall Cobb. Amari Rodgers doesn’t
quite profile as the next Cobb, but he may be the most significant
addition at receiver the Packers have drafted since Davante Adams.
On the downside, the Clemson product may be limited to slot duties
at the next level. The Tennessee native plays like a running back
after the catch (17 broken tackles on 77 catches this year) and
is built like one to boot (5-10, 212). What he lacks in superior
athleticism, he makes up for with toughness and worth ethic (it
took him just over five months to return from ACL surgery in 2019).
In that way (and a few others), he's similar to Deebo Samuel.
What does it mean in redraft? WR5. Amari Rodgers won't have it
easy trying to steal slot snaps from Allen Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling,
but there's no question he brings the receiving corps a level
of toughness it doesn't have.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
3.25 - RB Trey Sermon, 49ers
Team Fit: Interesting, interesting, interesting. It took a while
for Sermon to get comfortable in the Ohio State offense following
his transfer from Oklahoma and an equally long time for the Buckeyes'
coaching staff to commit to him, but it was a beautiful thing
when they came together. Assuming the comfort levels of both sides
was the reason why he enjoyed a historic postseason run and that
version is the one NFL coaches can expect moving forward, Sermon
is almost certain to outperform his draft position. The former
four-star recruit forced 33 missed tackles on 116 rushing attempts
and could have shed even more tackles if he lowered his pad level
more often. He did a better job of this - and running with impressive
power - during the aforementioned run when he put up 524 yards
rushing (to go along with 65 receiving yards) in wins over Northwestern
in the Big Ten championship game and Clemson in the CFP semifinals.
Sermon fumbled only twice in 455 carries over his college career,
including zero on 170 attempts over his last two seasons. Sermon,
who comps favorably to James Robinson and Damien Harris, is no
stranger to running in a zone-blocking scheme and was handpicked
by a regime that doesn't tend to spend early picks at the position.
What does it mean in redraft? RB4, but with significant upside.
Sermon will likely begin the season behind Raheem Mostert and
Jeff Wilson, but the former is pushing 30 and the latter just
started to emerge late last season.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
3.26 - WR Nico Collins, Texans
Team Fit: In an offseason that Texans would just as soon forget,
Collins offers a glimmer of hope. Houston, which is not exactly
loaded with draft picks this year, gave up a total of three third-day
picks to make the move to get him. The Michigan product is a bit
of a size-speed-weight specimen (6-4, 215, 4.42-40, 34 1/8-inch
arms), but he wasn't able to turn that into much production. How
much of that was Michigan's offense? How much of it was due to
an inability to separate? In other words, he's a developmental
prospect with substantial upside and downside. The Texans don't
need Collins right away despite their personnel blunders over
the last two offseasons, but if he can develop like they hope,
he would give the offense a much-needed big body alongside Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee and Randall Cobb.
What does it mean in redraft? Very little. There's a chance he
will see immediate action as a red zone threat, but he's almost
certain to be limited to about 20 plays per game (at most) in
2021.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
3.28 - WR Anthony Schwartz, Browns
Team Fit: The addition of Schwartz is about one thing: getting
safeties to back up off Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. and
keep an eighth man out of the box. Schwartz boasts 4.26 speed,
which is the overwhelming reason why Cleveland was willing to
burn a third-round pick on him. Unfortunately, he needs development
in just about every other important aspect of being a receiver,
as his ball skills, route-running and ability to play through
contact are all below average.
What does it mean in redraft? Very little. He may hit once or
twice in 2021, but good luck trying to predict those spots.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
3.34 - TE Tre McKitty, Chargers
Team Fit: McKitty is the rare skill-position prospect who played
more games (seven) than he caught passes (six) last season, but
it's hard to hold that against him. Colleges consistently do a
poor job of incorporating tight ends into their offenses. With
the Chargers, McKitty will have a realistic shot of competing
with Donald Parham for the right to start in 2022 should Los Angeles
move on from Jared Cook after the season. Despite his lack of
production, McKitty was invited to the Senior Bowl and showed
well. He does not lack for athleticism and is a decent bet to
develop into a solid starting tight end down the road.
What does it mean in redraft? Almost nothing. Cook will serve
as the bridge for at least this season and maybe longer. As long
as he is around, McKitty is unlikely to see much time on the field
even if he beats out Parham.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive". Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.