A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks last year.
Below are five reader questions (submitted via Twitter
or the FFT
forum) and my answers. PPR scoring should be assumed unless
otherwise noted. Any other special scoring rules will also appear
in the question or immediately thereafter.
gridirongoofs: (10-teamer, four flex spots, only need to start
one WR.)
Current lineup is Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery,
D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Trey McBride and Saints DST. I am putting
in a claim for Matthew Stafford in case C.J. Stroud does not play.
Jordan Love, Derek Carr and Kyler Murray are other options.
Also, Zack Moss (vs. PIT) or DeAndre Hopkins (vs. HOU) this week?
With Justin Herbert out for the season, I would be less than
thrilled about my investment in the Chargers. With that said,
Ekeler should have enough volume moving forward to somewhat offset
the touchdown upside he loses with Herbert on the shelf. Allen
can be at least a WR2, but we will have to wait at least a week
to see how he meshes with new starter Easton Stick.
Overall, this is a good lineup to be taking into the fantasy
playoffs. It is a lineup that would likely be buoyed by starting
Stafford regardless of whether Stroud (concussion) plays this
week. We are beginning to see evidence that the Rams' key contributors
probably were never healthy at the same time over the first 10
or so weeks. Stafford has thrown for 10 touchdowns over the last
three games, including three apiece against two of the better
secondaries in the league (Browns and Ravens). The Commanders
have not been great in any aspect on the defensive side of the
ball, but their pass defense has been atrocious for most of the
season. Four straight quarterbacks - and eight of the last nine
- have thrown for at least two touchdowns. For the season, five
passers have thrown for three or more scores.
My next choice after Stafford would be Love. Love at least gets
the beatable Tampa Bay pass defense at home in Week 15. The Bucs'
pass defense has been mostly awful in seven road games, surrendering
an average of 313 passing yards and 2.3 total touchdowns to the
quarterback position. In six home contests, Tampa Bay has allowed
an average of 245 passing yards and 1.1 total touchdowns. I started
Ridder in a pinch last week and was rewarded with 25.4 fantasy
points. Love's dud against the Giants would give me pause, but
he could enjoy a similar performance to the one Ridder just enjoyed.
Carr has been underwhelming all season long and is set to face
a Giants' defense that just bottled up Love a few days ago. From
purely an on-paper perspective, Murray's matchup against the 49ers
is not THAT daunting, as four of the last seven quarterbacks to
face San Francisco have scored at least 19 fantasy points. The
problem with taking Murray here is that we need to count on him
to produce in garbage time - which is usually a bad thing to depend
on - because Arizona's defense is unlikely to have many answers
for the 49ers' offense.
Most fantasy managers probably remember Moss most for his first
four games (and rightfully so). The problem with that is he has
not been the same runner after Week 5, as he has topped 3.7 yards
per carry since then. Perhaps some of that was the result of a
bit of a letdown on his part knowing that Jonathan Taylor would
be getting his job back in the near future. For the season, Moss
has been credited with only three broken tackles and is averaging
a mere 1.6 yards after contact (both per Pro Football Reference).
Given how poorly Pittsburgh's offense has played of late, there
is a chance Moss will see enough volume to post his first double-digit
fantasy effort since Week 8. I am not sure it is worth the risk.
It took a bit longer than fantasy managers would have liked,
but the Will Levis-to-DeAndre Hopkins connection appears to be
a thing. Hopkins has earned 12 targets in consecutive weeks, which
is good for a 33.8 percent target share. Even in an offense that
wants to run the ball as much as the Titans do, that kind of volume
will always have a place in our fantasy lineups. While I do not
see a ceiling game from Hopkins this week, the Texans will be
hard-pressed to keep him from drawing another 10 or so targets.
Interestingly, six receivers have recorded at least 10 targets
against Houston in 2023. None of them has scored fewer than 13.6
fantasy points. (The average point total of that group is 17.2.)
Garrett Wilson gashed the Texans for 20.1 last week with Zach Wilson throwing him the ball. Furthermore, Houston could be extremely
shorthanded on offense this week, which could put Tennessee in
favorable field position several times. It would not be surprising
if one of those possessions ended with Hopkins scoring against
his former team. Give me Hopkins over Moss this week.
Chickie: Superflex league, 12 teams. I have Tua Tagovailoa (vs.
NYJ), Justin Fields (@ CLE), Jordan Love (vs. TB) and Joe Flacco
(vs. CHI). I am contemplating the latter two. My opponent has
both Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Flacco, aside from having a
better matchup than both Tagovailoa and Fields, can also serve
as a partial mitigator against both Cooper and Njoku. If Tyreek
Hill (ankle) is hobbled that would diminish Tua’s passing
game. Thoughts?
Tagovailoa is an easy player to bench this week, in my opinion.
The Jets have allowed only four quarterbacks (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott) to score as many as two
total touchdowns. Each of them either rushed for at least 40 yards
or brought a serious running threat to the table. Tagovailoa faced
this same defense on Black Friday just over three weeks ago and
was picked off twice. That was with a healthy Hill and against
a Jets' team that was on a short week after Buffalo dismantled
it. This time around, there is a real chance Hill may not play.
If he does, it will not be at anything close to 100 percent. Tagovailoa
would be the last of the four players listed above that I would
start.
There is a case to be made for Fields. As good as Cleveland's
defense, it has yielded three touchdowns in each of the last two
weeks to Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence. Russell Wilson
accounted for two scores in Week 12. My working theory on how
this happened to one of the best defenses in the game is that
it coincides with stud CB Denzel Ward missing all three games
with a shoulder injury. Ward is getting close to a return after
practicing all of last week on a limited tag, but he did not play
in Week 14 despite being listed as questionable on the final injury
report. Another missed game by Ward would make me feel much better
about playing Fields over either Love or Flacco.
I discussed Love at some length in the previous question. I would
feel some trepidation about him coming off his performance and
likely being without Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks, but
I believe strongly enough in the Bucs' inability to hold up against
the pass that I would be willing to believe in Love. (Yes, that
was intentional.)
While it may be a bit hyperbolic to say the Bears have been a
shutdown pass defense over the last month or so, the truth of
the matter is they have not allowed a quarterback to throw for
more than 236 yards or two touchdowns since acquiring Montez Sweat
right before the trade deadline. There are certainly other factors
that have led to its resurgence, but Chicago is no longer a defense
we can or should target for fantasy purposes. One feather in Flacco's
hat is that he has attempted 44 and 45 passes in his two starts,
which means volume should be in his favor yet again with Jerome Ford (hand) hurting and Kareem Hunt doing next to nothing on the
ground outside of scoring touchdowns.
I went into this question expecting to say I would start Love
and Flacco, but I think I would rather take my chances on pairing
Love with Fields' upside.
Craigp94: Sam Howell (@ LAR) or Matthew Stafford (vs. WAS);
six points per TD, one point per comp after 20.
Largely because football is (usually) only played once a week,
I tend to ignore a player being on a "hot streak." My
quick answer to this question is Stafford, for all the reasons
I detailed in the first question. However, I owe it to my loyal
readers to at least discuss why Howell is worthy of consideration.
Volume is king at just about every position in fantasy football,
which is a big reason why Howell ranks fourth in Craigp94's scoring.
He has 22 more pass attempts (509) than second-place Patrick Mahomes
and nine more completions (335-326). Stafford is 80 attempts and
82 completions behind Howell, although it is important to note
the former missed a game due to injury. The reason why I feel
the answer is clearly Stafford does not have to do with his floor.
(Howell has scored at least 19 fantasy points in six straight
weeks in more traditional four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues
that do not award bonuses for completions.) The question is upside,
and it would seem as though Stafford has it (with a healthy group
of receivers and 10 touchdowns in his last three games).
Howell does not have as much upside with one passing TD in his
last three games (four rushing scores, however). This is because
the few big fantasy efforts the Rams have surrendered to quarterbacks
this season have been to the best of the best or elite run threats
(or both) - a group that includes Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson,
Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. Howell does not lack mobility,
but he is not in the upper echelon of quarterbacks just because
he has volume working in his favor.
DrG: Easton Stick (@ LV) or Drew Lock (vs. PHI) for QB2 (superflex)?
Terry McLaurin (@ LAR) or Jakobi Meyers (vs. LAC) for WR3?
It is these kinds of questions (the first) that make me dislike
the superflex format, but that is a discussion for another day.
With that said, Lock is an easy pick for me this week - assuming
Geno Smith (groin) has to miss another game. While the matchup
against the Eagles is not a guaranteed 20-point performance for
whatever quarterback they are facing, only four of the 13 quarterbacks
to draw a start against Philadelphia this season have failed to
score at least 18.9 fantasy points. Nine quarterbacks have thrown
for at least two scores and four have accounted for four TDs!
While I believe Stick is capable of being a long-term NFL backup,
I have no faith in him on a short week against an improving defense
with a beat-up supporting cast. Keenan Allen (heel) has already
been ruled out. Joshua Palmer (knee) is expected to play since
Week 8 on Thursday Night Football, but he is highly unlikely to
see his usual allotment of snaps. Quentin Johnston may be showing
signs of progress, but it would be a huge stretch to say he is
deserving of more than five or six targets. Even if the Chargers
lean heavily on Austin Ekeler this week, they may struggle to
score more than 14 points. Never mind the fact the Raiders have
allowed 20-plus fantasy points to only four quarterbacks this
season.
Through nine weeks, McLaurin was the WR17 in total fantasy points
and the WR19 in fantasy points per game (among receivers who had
played every one of their team's games up to that point). Somewhat
interestingly, McLaurin is averaging 17 PPR fantasy points against
the Eagles this season and 9.8 against everyone else. He is on
roughly the same pace as he was in 2020 (134) and 2021 (130).
His recent demise is not the product of a lack of targets either.
The targets have not changed much over the last four games (he
is averaging 10 over that stretch as opposed to 7.8 from Weeks
1-9), but his catch rate has fallen from 67 to 45 percent. Additionally,
his yards per catch have also dropped from 12.1 from Weeks 1-9
to 9.7 over the last four contests. It is almost incomprehensible
how such a route-running technician could go from one extreme
to the other so quickly. What has changed is that McLaurin has
posted three of his highest average depth of target (aDOT) marks
of the season in his last three outings, going from 11 in Week
11 to 13.5 and 17.3 before the bye. McLaurin had only three aDOT
marks higher than 11 over his first nine contests. The problem
is OC Eric Bieniemy's offense seems to prioritize spreading the
wealth over feeding its primary playmakers. McLaurin reportedly
expressed his frustrations with the coaching staff during the
bye week, for what it is worth.
Meyers' plight is not much different from McLaurin's, only his
struggles have lasted a bit longer. His Week 13 eruption (6-79-1)
was mostly the product of the Raiders targeting Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson, while his only other double-digit effort since Week 7
was greatly influenced by a 17-yard touchdown run. Since Week
7, Meyers has earned a mere 26 targets (4.3 per game), which greatly
overshadows the fact he has caught 20 of them (77 percent). Las
Vegas is coming off a shutout loss and may be on the verge of
benching Aidan O'Connell for Jimmy Garoppolo, which may not be
a bad thing at this point. Unfortunately, we cannot count on that
happening this week. The one caveat to keep in mind, however,
is that Davante Adams popped up on the injury report on Wednesday
(Dec. 13) with an illness and is listed as questionable. While
an illness is unlikely to keep Adams from playing, the Raiders
also do not have a lot to play for anymore. In short, I would
start Meyers over McLaurin if Adams ends up on the inactive list
on Thursday night. Otherwise, I will follow the volume and pray
Commanders-Rams turns into a bit more of a shootout than the matchup
says it should.
polecatt: I am in a league where we keep 8-12 players each year.
It is PPR, long-ball bonus, with big bonuses at 100/300 yds. Normally,
I like to keep eight and get a high draft pick. However, this
season I may struggle to narrow it down to 12. I have several
no-brainer keepers, such as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka
Nacua, Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, Sam LaPorta, C.J. Stroud,
Justin Herbert and Chris Olave. I have three spots left and a
few guys I am on the fence about: Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Warren,
Kyle Pitts and Anthony Richardson. Should I keep all, none or
some?
First of all, kudos on an incredible roster. Because the first
nine are no-brainers like polecatt said, I will focus on the final
four.
The answer to the question depends largely on the size of this
league and the number/quality of keepers you expect your league-mates
to keep. If most of the rest of the league is keeping roughly
10 players on average, you would theoretically be starting next
year's draft at around pick 100 in a 10-team league or 120 in
a 12-teamer. I do not think it is much of a reach to say that
at least three of the four "fence" guys will be taken
by pick 100 or 120 next summer. With that said, there are other
factors to consider here, such as the long-term value of the "fence"
players.
The decision to keep Kupp is almost entirely dependent on the
quality of player you expect to draft next summer. Kupp is the
clear WR5 from a keeper/dynasty perspective on this list, yet
it would not surprise me if he ends up being more productive than
Nacua and Olave for another year or two. If I knew I was getting
a solid RB2 with the pick I get for releasing Kupp back into the
player pool and had the depth you do at receiver, I would probably
let Kupp go. However, if a back like Warren is what you can expect
in return, then I would not.
Despite being heavy on quarterbacks and receivers and light on
running backs, I would feel comfortable parting with Warren. Najee Harris is stuck in Pittsburgh for at least another season and
will probably stick around another year after that (the team will
likely exercise his fifth-year team option). Assuming Harris'
option is picked up, it means the best we can realistically hope
for is that Warren hits the open market after his contract expires
following the end of the 2024 season (when he will be 26 years
old). That is a long wait for an older player who may never be
allowed to be anything more than a committee back in Pittsburgh.
This team may be the rare occasion I would be OK with letting
go of Pitts, although I am not sure I would. Most of us can acknowledge
Pitts' current circumstance has much less to do with his talent
and much more to do with how he is being used. (Imagine how much
his value would skyrocket if HC Arthur Smith is no longer in Atlanta
after this season or Pitts is traded.) Even with LaPorta on my
roster, I would think long and hard about keeping Pitts. Cornering
the young tight end market in a keeper/dynasty league not only
makes things easier from a long-term roster-building perspective,
but it also allows you to dictate the terms in trade talks since
tight end is such a hard position to fill.
The only easy keeper decision of the bunch is Richardson. I could
care less if I already have Herbert and Stroud on my roster. Richardson
could easily be a top-five quarterback as soon as next season
with better injury luck. This year's No. 4 overall pick may end
up being a more athletic version of Jalen Hurts in Shane Steichen's
offense, which is the kind of upside you are not going to find
very often.
In summary, I would definitely hold onto Richardson. Kupp and
Pitts are likely holds based on certain criteria. I do not have
much of an issue letting Warren go with what you already have
at running back.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.