A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.
Below are four reader questions (submitted via X or the
FFT forum) and my answers. Any special scoring rules will also
appear in the question or immediately thereafter.
Before we get started, Week 17 usually brings surprises, but
some of the decisions fantasy managers have to make this week
are among the most challenging I can remember for a fantasy championship
week. How do you replace CeeDee
Lamb and Jalen
Hurts now? Will Rhamondre
Stevenson be benched (again)? Congrats, Kenneth
Walker managers … hope you enjoyed the one week you got him
back. How many Arizona running backs must managers add to their
roster to play one of them? Will it be J.K.
Dobbins, Kimani
Vidal or Hassan
Haskins in the Chargers' backfield this week? Will Tyrone
Tracy Jr., Drake
London, Malik
Nabers, A.J.
Brown or David
Njoku play? Every one of the seven teams I have playing for
a championship this week has been affected by this massive wave
of injuries and/or early rule-outs. It almost seems like this
week is what most managers in leagues with Week 18 championship
games go through every season …
Lake209: (Half PPR) I must flex either Breece Hall (@BUF, vs.
MIA) or Marvin Harrison Jr. (@LAR, vs. SF); championship game
is aggregate - point totals of active roster for both this week
and next - so start/sit recommendations for the two players are
needed in W17 and W18.
The short answer: Hall (both weeks).
My rationale: It is not so much this is an easy
question to answer as much as it is that OC Drew Petzing and Kyler Murray are not giving us much of a reason to consider Harrison.
Target volume has not been a problem for the rookie over the last
month, as he has managed at least eight in three of his last four
outings (high of 12). The problem now is the same one that has
existed most of the year: not many receivers succeed with a 51
percent catch rate.
Thanks to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the reason for this
bad "connection" becomes easier to understand. The route
that Harrison runs the most is the "go," which accounts
for almost 21 percent of his total routes (89). His Average Separation
Score on that route (-0.124) is easily the lowest of all the routes
he has run. Among the other routes he has run at least 50 times
is the post (0.180) and corner (-0.019). All told, at least 45
percent of Harrison's routes are deep routes. Murray owns a passer
rating of 68.9 on deep (20-plus yards) throws, which ranks 18th
among quarterbacks who have made at least 12 starts. Furthermore,
Murray has attempted only 45 deep passes and completed 15. The
reason this is such a big problem is that while Harrison can stretch
the field, he profiles as more of a Larry Fitzgerald kind of player,
which means the majority of his routes should emphasize his ability
to run routes smoothly and be in the intermediate (10-19 yards)
area of the field. Arizona has used him on slightly more short
and intermediate routes over the last four weeks, but it is not
a huge difference.
The other major thing working against Harrison over the next
two weeks is the competition. The 49ers rank as the most difficult
matchup for receivers this season. The Rams appear to be a much
easier matchup on paper, especially when we consider the rookie
torched them for four catches, 130 yards and a touchdown in Week
2. However, Los Angeles has improved significantly on defense
over the last two months. Furthermore, the Cardinals just placed
both of their Week 1 starting offensive tackles on IR this week,
likely limiting how much time Murray will likely have in the pocket.
Hall is far from a lineup lock himself with no more than 12.1
HPPR fantasy points over his last three and the state of the New
York offense in general, but his fantasy managers can be encouraged
by the fact he handled 19 touches last week. His matchups over
the next two weeks are also better than Harrison's. The Bills'
defense is designed to limit big passing plays, which makes sense
given how high-powered their offense is. Opponents can only stick
with the running game for so long when Josh
Allen & Co. are consistently able to build an early two-score
lead. Fortunately, Hall has remained involved enough in the passing
game this season that he can be expected to contribute whether
the Jets are in positive or negative game script. Assuming the
game remains close - which Bills-Jets usually does - Buffalo can
be beaten on the ground. The Dolphins are more of a middling matchup
for running backs, but we can be confident that New York will
have success after Isaiah
Davis and Braelon
Allen combined for 28 touches, 148 total yards and a touchdown
against Miami in Week 14.
weepaws: (PPR) Ameer Abdullah (@NO) or Brian Robinson Jr. (vs.
ATL)?
The short answer: Abdullah.
My rationale: This should not be a legitimate question in December.
Yet it is. Robinson has the Washington backfield almost to himself
with Austin Ekeler (concussion) still on IR and should be the
easy answer. No one should have been surprised by his lack of
production last week given his matchup (the Eagles), but it was
what happened in Week 15 against the Saints that has me slightly
concerned. New Orleans has been pounded into submission by running
backs for most of the season, yet no Commander running back had
much success against the Saints. Furthermore, Robinson has been
something of a mixed bag since starting the season out with seven
straight strong fantasy efforts. Considering he has yet to catch
more than three passes in a game (he has the ability, Washington
just chooses not to use him much as a pass-catcher), his overall
fantasy upside is limited. Last but not least, the Falcons are
tied with the Chargers for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed
to running backs (four), which makes Robinson a touchdown-or-bust
option who is most likely to bust given the matchup.
Abdullah seems like an emergency option who has gotten lucky
over the last two weeks, but the reality is that he has been more
of an equal backfield partner than a mere backup in a win and
a loss. Las Vegas is one of the worst teams fantasy managers want
to count on - especially in fantasy championship week - and one
of the last things most of us want to do is invest in a committee
member in offenses such as the Raiders. However, Alexander Mattison
is so consistently unproductive and inefficient as a runner -
regardless of the matchup - that Abdullah is a near-lock to get
plenty of work on passing downs and long down-and-distance situations.
Abdullah may not see much more than 10 touches - but the good
news is that Abdullah has hit that mark in four of his last five
games and scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in three of them.
Touchdown luck has played a huge role in that, but it should be
noted he has also managed five catches in those same three games.
That speaks to his explosiveness and play-making ability, which
is no small thing when the matchup is as good as the one that
lies ahead of him.
In the end, the answer to this question comes down to how much
I value the floor and how much I value the ceiling. Robinson is
undeniably the safer play and possesses some theoretical upside.
Abdullah is extremely risky since his volume relies heavily on
Mattison's ineffectiveness and the likelihood Las Vegas will need
to go into catch-up mode at some point against a team that is
struggling to score. With that said, the answer to this question
needs to be the player I believe will score the most this week.
Abdullah should do more (and has a better chance to score) with
his 10-12 touches than Robinson will on his 16-18 touches (most
of which will likely be rush attempts).
Showboat: (TD-only league with bonus for 100 yards rushing/receiving);
Start two: JK Dobbins (@NE), Kendre Miller (vs. LV), Tyjae Spears
(@JAC), Malik Nabers (vs. IND), Sam LaPorta (@ SF), Rhamondre
Stevenson (vs. LAC).
The short answer: Dobbins and Spears (if Dobbins plays). Spears
and LaPorta (if Dobbins sits).
My rationale: Dobbins probably is a must-start if he suits up,
as Showboat suggested as part of his question in the forum. Fantasy
managers will likely find out about his true game status a few
hours after this column is published, but a limited-limited-full
practice schedule this week - along with a questionable tag -
puts Dobbins on track to come off IR and play against the Patriots.
The Chargers have talked up Kimani Vidal at various points throughout
the season but have to give him more than eight touches in a game
despite being without Dobbins and Gus Edwards at various times
this season. As such, I would expect Dobbins to return to a featured
role immediately.
Game script did not help Miller last week, but the harsh reality
is that New Orleans did him no favors with usage either. Jordan Mims played a total of 56 offensive snaps through Week 15 before
leading the backfield in playing time (25 snaps) in Week 16. What's
more is that Mims took over as the primary back on passing downs,
all of which flies in the face of the Saints wanting to see what
they have in Miller. While the Raiders are a much different animal
than the Packers, I will not place any level of trust in this
backfield with a fantasy title on the line. Giving Miller 20 touches
was such an obvious move last week and the Saints did not come
close.
Spears might as well be the rich man's version of Ameer Abdullah.
After doing next to nothing for most of the fantasy regular season,
Spears has scored twice in consecutive games while Tony Pollard
has been nursing an ankle injury. Pollard should once again be
expected to play, but this week is the first time during his recent
surge that the Titans are playing an opponent on their level.
Will Tennessee need to rely on Spears in the passing game? (He
has offered almost nothing in the running game outside of the
three touchdown runs in the last two weeks.) The matchup does
not get much better than the Jaguars, who just gave up high-end
RB2/low-end RB1 production to the tag team of Alexander Mattison
and Abdullah last week. With this being a TD-only league with
a 100-yard bonus, Spears might be the most likely of the bunch
to do either one or both.
It is hard to fault the consistency of Nabers, who has been targeted
at least seven times in every game. Furthermore, he has been targeted
less than 10 times in only three games. Regardless of which sub-par
quarterback the Giants have trotted out in 2024, Nabers has been
good for at least 10 PPR fantasy points in all but one outing.
Unfortunately, that does not help Showboat out much here because
Nabers is a decent but not good bet for 100 yards receiving. The
quarterback play has zapped his touchdown upside. He belongs in
the maybe pile.
LaPorta has scored or topped 100 yards receiving in three of
the last four weeks (and four of the last six) and comes attached
to a dynamic offense, so he is easily one of the top candidates
in this group. His biggest problem this week is facing a 49ers
defense that has not yielded more than 66 receiving yards to a
tight end this year. Additionally, Tucker Kraft (Week 12) is the
only tight end to score against San Francisco since Week 5. Nonetheless,
the loss of David Montgomery leaves LaPorta as the second- or
third-best option in the red zone. The Lions' injury-ravaged defense
puts Detroit in a position where the Lions have to open things
up on offense. I don't feel great about LaPorta after San Francisco
held Jonnu Smith to six catches for 62 yards last week, but he
probably has the best chance of scoring a touchdown from this
group despite the matchup.
Stop me if you have heard this before: Stevenson might be benched.
The fumbles are a problem; I get it. They were also a problem
in 2022 and earlier this season. How much of a lesson can a coach
teach a player about ball security and threaten his playing time
when his team just extended his contract six months ago? In addition,
Antonio Gibson was not the answer before and he is not the answer
now. Benching Stevenson only hurt New England's chances of winning
and it is a good bet every one of his teammates knows it. With
that said, Stevenson's fantasy managers cannot afford him to lose
any more touches to Gibson than he already is. The Chargers also
are tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running
backs this season, which puts a cap on Stevenson's ceiling this
week in a game they will likely be trailing in after the first
quarter. He is an easy player for me to bench as well.
Mike FF Today: (Half PPR) Khalil Shakir (vs. NYJ) or Josh Downs
(@NYG)?
The short answer: Shakir.
My rationale: The half-PPR aspect of this question makes it a
slightly more difficult question to answer, but there are only
two major considerations necessary to arrive at the right conclusion,
in my opinion. Shakir is the beneficiary of having the potential
league MVP as his quarterback. Downs may be the more explosive
and talented option of the two, but his quarterback routinely
completes 12 or fewer passes in a game and is coming off a week
in which he attempted 11 (completing seven). The Giants seem highly
unlikely to make this game a shootout, which probably means we
can project a script in which the Colts run 40 times and attempt
15-18 passes (at most). Interestingly, Downs has not seen more
than five targets in any game in which Richardson played all the
way through and the Colts won. Indy should win handily this week.
Shakir has been more of a floor play recently and posted his
worst HPPR fantasy total of the season (2.9) in Buffalo's first
meeting with the Jets in Week 6. With that said, usual nickel
CB Michael Carter II is dealing with a back injury and has yet
to practice in full this week after not playing last week. Sauce
Gardner (hamstring) has yet to practice this week, which could
force Carter to move outside or take on additional responsibilities
on top of trying to check Shakir. Both outcomes favor Shakir.
All things considered, I would rather start the player who should
see more volume with a better quarterback than a player I hope
will find the end zone on one of his three or four targets.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.