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Championship Week Q&A



By Doug Orth | 12/27/24 |

A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.

Below are four reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum) and my answers. Any special scoring rules will also appear in the question or immediately thereafter.

Before we get started, Week 17 usually brings surprises, but some of the decisions fantasy managers have to make this week are among the most challenging I can remember for a fantasy championship week. How do you replace CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Hurts now? Will Rhamondre Stevenson be benched (again)? Congrats, Kenneth Walker managers … hope you enjoyed the one week you got him back. How many Arizona running backs must managers add to their roster to play one of them? Will it be J.K. Dobbins, Kimani Vidal or Hassan Haskins in the Chargers' backfield this week? Will Tyrone Tracy Jr., Drake London, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown or David Njoku play? Every one of the seven teams I have playing for a championship this week has been affected by this massive wave of injuries and/or early rule-outs. It almost seems like this week is what most managers in leagues with Week 18 championship games go through every season …

Lake209: (Half PPR) I must flex either Breece Hall (@BUF, vs. MIA) or Marvin Harrison Jr. (@LAR, vs. SF); championship game is aggregate - point totals of active roster for both this week and next - so start/sit recommendations for the two players are needed in W17 and W18.

The short answer: Hall (both weeks).

My rationale: It is not so much this is an easy question to answer as much as it is that OC Drew Petzing and Kyler Murray are not giving us much of a reason to consider Harrison. Target volume has not been a problem for the rookie over the last month, as he has managed at least eight in three of his last four outings (high of 12). The problem now is the same one that has existed most of the year: not many receivers succeed with a 51 percent catch rate.

Thanks to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the reason for this bad "connection" becomes easier to understand. The route that Harrison runs the most is the "go," which accounts for almost 21 percent of his total routes (89). His Average Separation Score on that route (-0.124) is easily the lowest of all the routes he has run. Among the other routes he has run at least 50 times is the post (0.180) and corner (-0.019). All told, at least 45 percent of Harrison's routes are deep routes. Murray owns a passer rating of 68.9 on deep (20-plus yards) throws, which ranks 18th among quarterbacks who have made at least 12 starts. Furthermore, Murray has attempted only 45 deep passes and completed 15. The reason this is such a big problem is that while Harrison can stretch the field, he profiles as more of a Larry Fitzgerald kind of player, which means the majority of his routes should emphasize his ability to run routes smoothly and be in the intermediate (10-19 yards) area of the field. Arizona has used him on slightly more short and intermediate routes over the last four weeks, but it is not a huge difference.

The other major thing working against Harrison over the next two weeks is the competition. The 49ers rank as the most difficult matchup for receivers this season. The Rams appear to be a much easier matchup on paper, especially when we consider the rookie torched them for four catches, 130 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. However, Los Angeles has improved significantly on defense over the last two months. Furthermore, the Cardinals just placed both of their Week 1 starting offensive tackles on IR this week, likely limiting how much time Murray will likely have in the pocket.

Hall is far from a lineup lock himself with no more than 12.1 HPPR fantasy points over his last three and the state of the New York offense in general, but his fantasy managers can be encouraged by the fact he handled 19 touches last week. His matchups over the next two weeks are also better than Harrison's. The Bills' defense is designed to limit big passing plays, which makes sense given how high-powered their offense is. Opponents can only stick with the running game for so long when Josh Allen & Co. are consistently able to build an early two-score lead. Fortunately, Hall has remained involved enough in the passing game this season that he can be expected to contribute whether the Jets are in positive or negative game script. Assuming the game remains close - which Bills-Jets usually does - Buffalo can be beaten on the ground. The Dolphins are more of a middling matchup for running backs, but we can be confident that New York will have success after Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen combined for 28 touches, 148 total yards and a touchdown against Miami in Week 14.

Ameer Abdullah

weepaws: (PPR) Ameer Abdullah (@NO) or Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. ATL)?

The short answer: Abdullah.

My rationale: This should not be a legitimate question in December. Yet it is. Robinson has the Washington backfield almost to himself with Austin Ekeler (concussion) still on IR and should be the easy answer. No one should have been surprised by his lack of production last week given his matchup (the Eagles), but it was what happened in Week 15 against the Saints that has me slightly concerned. New Orleans has been pounded into submission by running backs for most of the season, yet no Commander running back had much success against the Saints. Furthermore, Robinson has been something of a mixed bag since starting the season out with seven straight strong fantasy efforts. Considering he has yet to catch more than three passes in a game (he has the ability, Washington just chooses not to use him much as a pass-catcher), his overall fantasy upside is limited. Last but not least, the Falcons are tied with the Chargers for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (four), which makes Robinson a touchdown-or-bust option who is most likely to bust given the matchup.

Abdullah seems like an emergency option who has gotten lucky over the last two weeks, but the reality is that he has been more of an equal backfield partner than a mere backup in a win and a loss. Las Vegas is one of the worst teams fantasy managers want to count on - especially in fantasy championship week - and one of the last things most of us want to do is invest in a committee member in offenses such as the Raiders. However, Alexander Mattison is so consistently unproductive and inefficient as a runner - regardless of the matchup - that Abdullah is a near-lock to get plenty of work on passing downs and long down-and-distance situations. Abdullah may not see much more than 10 touches - but the good news is that Abdullah has hit that mark in four of his last five games and scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in three of them. Touchdown luck has played a huge role in that, but it should be noted he has also managed five catches in those same three games. That speaks to his explosiveness and play-making ability, which is no small thing when the matchup is as good as the one that lies ahead of him.

In the end, the answer to this question comes down to how much I value the floor and how much I value the ceiling. Robinson is undeniably the safer play and possesses some theoretical upside. Abdullah is extremely risky since his volume relies heavily on Mattison's ineffectiveness and the likelihood Las Vegas will need to go into catch-up mode at some point against a team that is struggling to score. With that said, the answer to this question needs to be the player I believe will score the most this week. Abdullah should do more (and has a better chance to score) with his 10-12 touches than Robinson will on his 16-18 touches (most of which will likely be rush attempts).

Showboat: (TD-only league with bonus for 100 yards rushing/receiving); Start two: JK Dobbins (@NE), Kendre Miller (vs. LV), Tyjae Spears (@JAC), Malik Nabers (vs. IND), Sam LaPorta (@ SF), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. LAC).

The short answer: Dobbins and Spears (if Dobbins plays). Spears and LaPorta (if Dobbins sits).

My rationale: Dobbins probably is a must-start if he suits up, as Showboat suggested as part of his question in the forum. Fantasy managers will likely find out about his true game status a few hours after this column is published, but a limited-limited-full practice schedule this week - along with a questionable tag - puts Dobbins on track to come off IR and play against the Patriots. The Chargers have talked up Kimani Vidal at various points throughout the season but have to give him more than eight touches in a game despite being without Dobbins and Gus Edwards at various times this season. As such, I would expect Dobbins to return to a featured role immediately.

Game script did not help Miller last week, but the harsh reality is that New Orleans did him no favors with usage either. Jordan Mims played a total of 56 offensive snaps through Week 15 before leading the backfield in playing time (25 snaps) in Week 16. What's more is that Mims took over as the primary back on passing downs, all of which flies in the face of the Saints wanting to see what they have in Miller. While the Raiders are a much different animal than the Packers, I will not place any level of trust in this backfield with a fantasy title on the line. Giving Miller 20 touches was such an obvious move last week and the Saints did not come close.

Spears might as well be the rich man's version of Ameer Abdullah. After doing next to nothing for most of the fantasy regular season, Spears has scored twice in consecutive games while Tony Pollard has been nursing an ankle injury. Pollard should once again be expected to play, but this week is the first time during his recent surge that the Titans are playing an opponent on their level. Will Tennessee need to rely on Spears in the passing game? (He has offered almost nothing in the running game outside of the three touchdown runs in the last two weeks.) The matchup does not get much better than the Jaguars, who just gave up high-end RB2/low-end RB1 production to the tag team of Alexander Mattison and Abdullah last week. With this being a TD-only league with a 100-yard bonus, Spears might be the most likely of the bunch to do either one or both.

It is hard to fault the consistency of Nabers, who has been targeted at least seven times in every game. Furthermore, he has been targeted less than 10 times in only three games. Regardless of which sub-par quarterback the Giants have trotted out in 2024, Nabers has been good for at least 10 PPR fantasy points in all but one outing. Unfortunately, that does not help Showboat out much here because Nabers is a decent but not good bet for 100 yards receiving. The quarterback play has zapped his touchdown upside. He belongs in the maybe pile.

LaPorta has scored or topped 100 yards receiving in three of the last four weeks (and four of the last six) and comes attached to a dynamic offense, so he is easily one of the top candidates in this group. His biggest problem this week is facing a 49ers defense that has not yielded more than 66 receiving yards to a tight end this year. Additionally, Tucker Kraft (Week 12) is the only tight end to score against San Francisco since Week 5. Nonetheless, the loss of David Montgomery leaves LaPorta as the second- or third-best option in the red zone. The Lions' injury-ravaged defense puts Detroit in a position where the Lions have to open things up on offense. I don't feel great about LaPorta after San Francisco held Jonnu Smith to six catches for 62 yards last week, but he probably has the best chance of scoring a touchdown from this group despite the matchup.

Stop me if you have heard this before: Stevenson might be benched. The fumbles are a problem; I get it. They were also a problem in 2022 and earlier this season. How much of a lesson can a coach teach a player about ball security and threaten his playing time when his team just extended his contract six months ago? In addition, Antonio Gibson was not the answer before and he is not the answer now. Benching Stevenson only hurt New England's chances of winning and it is a good bet every one of his teammates knows it. With that said, Stevenson's fantasy managers cannot afford him to lose any more touches to Gibson than he already is. The Chargers also are tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs this season, which puts a cap on Stevenson's ceiling this week in a game they will likely be trailing in after the first quarter. He is an easy player for me to bench as well.

Mike FF Today: (Half PPR) Khalil Shakir (vs. NYJ) or Josh Downs (@NYG)?

The short answer: Shakir.

My rationale: The half-PPR aspect of this question makes it a slightly more difficult question to answer, but there are only two major considerations necessary to arrive at the right conclusion, in my opinion. Shakir is the beneficiary of having the potential league MVP as his quarterback. Downs may be the more explosive and talented option of the two, but his quarterback routinely completes 12 or fewer passes in a game and is coming off a week in which he attempted 11 (completing seven). The Giants seem highly unlikely to make this game a shootout, which probably means we can project a script in which the Colts run 40 times and attempt 15-18 passes (at most). Interestingly, Downs has not seen more than five targets in any game in which Richardson played all the way through and the Colts won. Indy should win handily this week.

Shakir has been more of a floor play recently and posted his worst HPPR fantasy total of the season (2.9) in Buffalo's first meeting with the Jets in Week 6. With that said, usual nickel CB Michael Carter II is dealing with a back injury and has yet to practice in full this week after not playing last week. Sauce Gardner (hamstring) has yet to practice this week, which could force Carter to move outside or take on additional responsibilities on top of trying to check Shakir. Both outcomes favor Shakir. All things considered, I would rather start the player who should see more volume with a better quarterback than a player I hope will find the end zone on one of his three or four targets.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.