As touches are to a running back, so are targets for a receiver.

It’s the opportunity to do something good for his team … and my fantasy lineup. Or to waste his chance to be noticed.

Now to figure out how to evaluate receivers based on targets. Not every receiver produces at the same level, so 100 targets for A.J. Green is not the same as 100 targets for Anquan Boldin. For that reason we have done a simple calculation comparing targets to fantasy points produced aptly named FPPT (fantasy-points-per-target). It’s so simple, yet revealing.

We took the information and evaluated the players at both ends of the spectrum. Then analyzed the receivers based on usage. For this analysis, I use six targets-per game to determine high volume. What remains are four categories: 1) high volume, high FPPT; 2) high volume, low FPPT; 3) low volume, high FPPT and 4) low volume, low FPPT.

1) High Volume, high FPPT

Most of these guys are already stars because they are producing and getting ample opportunities. Fantasy owners already know what to do here. The only thing I’ll add is that they are probably near their peak upside.

Beware of top FPPT receiver Doug Baldwin. He did most of his damage with Jimmy Graham sidelined by injury. Can he do it with Graham back, along with young Tyler Lockett and Jermaine Kearse demanding more targets too? The same goes for Ted Ginn Jr. because of the return of Kelvin Benjamin. The Jaguars’ pair of Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson should get better as their young quarterback, Blake Bortles, improves.

2) High Volume, low FPPT

If these receivers are young, or have an improving quarterback situation then they might still have a chance to improve their FPPT. However, the older the player the more likely he is to stay at this production level.

High Volume, Low FPPT WRs Name Team G Target Rec Rec yds TDs Ru Att Ru Yds Ru TDs FPts FPts/G FPPT Davante Adams GB 12 92 50 483 1 0 0 0 54.3 4.5 0.59 Dez Bryant DAL 9 72 31 401 3 0 0 0 58.1 6.5 0.80 Robert Woods BUF 14 80 47 552 3 1 0 0 73.2 5.2 0.91 Anquan Boldin FA 14 111 69 789 4 0 0 0 102.9 7.4 0.92 Demaryius Thomas DEN 16 177 105 1,304 6 0 0 0 166.4 10.4 0.94 Jarvis Landry MIA 16 167 111 1,159 4 17 111 1 157.0 9.8 0.94 Golden Tate DET 16 129 90 813 6 6 41 0 121.4 7.6 0.94 Nate Washington NEP 13 94 47 658 4 0 0 0 89.8 6.9 0.95 Mike Evans TB 14 145 74 1,208 3 0 0 0 138.8 9.9 0.95 Randall Cobb GB 16 129 79 829 6 13 50 0 123.9 7.7 0.96

Davante Adams was simply horrible in 2015 and will have to work to regain the confidence of his quarterback Aaron Rodgers as a No. 3 receiver. Meanwhile, I still believe in Randall Cobb and he’ll likely be more comfortable returning to his role as the No. 2 receiver with the return of Jordy Nelson.

Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans, who led the NFL in drops last season, is too talented to accept playing at his 2015 level and should be a quality WR1 in 2016 due to his improvement and the maturation of second year QB Jameis Winston.

At the other end of the state, Jarvis Landry needs to improve on his ability to turn catches into touchdowns. He’s already caught 195 balls over two seasons, but scored only nine times. He’s obviously got better value in PPR leagues, but he will have to share targets with a now healthy DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and TE Jordan Cameron.

Dez Bryant will be a stud when both he and his quarterback are healthy and on the field at the same time. That didn’t happen very often last season.

Those fantasy owners who had Demaryius Thomas know the troubles he had getting good quarterback play in 2015. Under the direction of Mark Sanchez and Paxton Lynch the passing offense doesn’t figure to be much better. However, Sanchez does have a tendency to lock in on one receiver so if you see during the exhibition season that his one receiver is Thomas, you have a chance to get decent production.

3) Low Volume, high FPPT

These guys know how to produce, they just haven’t seen enough chances (maximum five targets per game). Fantasy owners need to decide whether they will see more opportunities and if that’s the case then they are also the most likely to grow into sleeper status. However, if their targets are still limited, they aren’t likely to improve their fantasy production because they are already producing at a high level.

Wheaton has the best chance to become a top fantasy receiver from this group. He inherits a starting wideout spot after the year-long suspension of Martavis Bryant. Who wouldn’t want to have Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback and defenses keying on Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.

The problem with hoping for more targets for talented Tyler Lockett or Jermaine Kearse is that they have to also share with Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. That’s a great quartet for Russell Wilson owners, but a difficult problem for trying to figure out each week’s receiving distribution.
Oakland’s No. 3 wideout, Seth Roberts, should be a stash in case either Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree are injured, however, the big improvement is more likely to be Clive Walford at tight end.

4) Low Volume, low FPPT

This is not where you want to see your receiver listed. They aren’t getting opportunities and even when they are they aren’t producing. However, sometimes a rookie who is buried on the depth chart starts to “get it” in Year 2 and blows up. (Minimum 40 targets).

I can’t see any of this tier group becoming fantasy worthy, but if you forced me to choose one I’d go with the Eagles’ Nelson Agholor. The second year receiver was feeble as a rookie (23-283-1), but he had to deal with the Chip Kelly offense and a high ankle sprain which slowed him for a majority of the season. Agholor is probably on a short leash, however, because the Eagles added Rueben Randle in free agency and the former Giant could eventually become a starter after a solid 2015.