Now that the calendar has turned the page to November, it’s time to take weather into account when making decisions. This week early weather reports says snow flurries in Green Bay. Not unusual except the Packers face Miami and the Dolphins may not be ready for it. Windy weather in Chicago and Cleveland might influence the passing games.

Fantasy owners mostly avoided serious season-ending injuries last weekend at the skill positions, but with bye weeks continuing, it’s still difficult to assemble lineups. In Week 10, Baltimore, Denver, Houston and Minnesota will take a seat.



Truths

“Truth is universal. Perception of truth is not.” – Anonymous

1) I was wrong when I thought Josh Gordon wouldn’t succeed in New England.

I thought the former Cleveland Browns wideout wouldn’t fit in with TB12 and the “Patriots’ Way” but apparently Tom Brady trusts him. On numerous occasions over the past three weeks I’ve seen Brady throw 50-50 balls to Gordon and that’s the ultimate sign of trust from a quarterback. He’s averaging eight targets per game, 4.5 receptions and has posted two 100-yard games in the past three contests. It doesn’t hurt that Rob Gronkowski has been a ghost lately. A dislocated finger suffered Sunday night shouldn’t keep Gordon off the field for Week 10. He’s no Michael Thomas or Odell Beckham Jr., but he’s playing at a solid WR2 level and that’s a lot better than what I thought would happen when I commented on him back in Week 7.

2) Streaming the New York Jets defense in Week 10 is a good idea.

The Jets are only owned in 41% of all Yahoo leagues making them a good chance to be available in your league. Why the Jets? Because they line up against the hapless Buffalo offense this Sunday. Defense/Special teams facing them have produced above their season average in seven of nine games. And even before they face the Bills, the Jets are averaging a solid 7.7 FPts/G good enough to rank seventh overall. The Bills have allowed a stunning 11.2 FPts/G to opposing D/ST this season.

3) Antonio Brown’s catch percentage is the worst in seven years.

Unfortunately true. Here are the facts. In 2018 he’s caught 51 of 81 targets (56.0%). From 2012-17 his catch percentages were; 62.3, 65.9, 71.3, 70.5, 68.8, 62.0. Luckily, he’s on pace for his second-highest target total (182) which helps compensate for his lower efficiency. Also, he’s averaging 1.125 touchdown catches per game which would be a personal-best 18 TD pace. Therefore, while his yardage is down he’s still producing more than 14 FPts/G.

4) Do not be afraid to start the league’s top fantasy quarterback Patrick Mahomes (31.9 FPts/G) against the league’s best defense against opposing quarterbacks.

The Arizona Cardinals have yielded the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (18.6 FPts/G). However, they haven’t exactly faced a “Murderer Row” of elite quarterbacks. Also, looking deeper into the numbers the Cardinals have allowed a very stingy 14.3 FPts/G at University of Phoenix Stadium and a much more generous 25.7 FPts/G on the road. This game is in Kansas City.

5) Kareem Hunt will be the top running back in Week 10.

One of the reasons the Cardinals are No.1 against opposing quarterbacks is that running backs slice through their defense like a hot knife through butter. They have allowed a league-high 26.6 FPts/G. Meanwhile, Hunt has produced a league-best 78.8 FPts over the past three games. He’s been involved in both the running game (151-683-7) and the passing game (21-312-6) all season, so the game situation shouldn’t make a difference … unless he’s sitting out the fourth quarter because of a 30-point lead.

Lies

“There's only two people in your life you should lie to... the police and your girlfriend.” - Jack Nicholson

1) “Football kickers are like taxi cabs. You can always go out and hire another one,” said former Eagles head coach Buddy Ryan.

Not if you want one you can actually rely on. Apparently finding a good, reliable kicker is a lot harder than Ryan thought. Just ask the Los Angeles Chargers. They went through five kickers in 2017 (Nick Novak, Younghoe Koo, Travis Coons, Nick Rose and Drew Kaser) and are on No. 2 this season after Caleb Sturgis was let go Monday following a disastrous Sunday in Seattle (he missed two extra points and a 42-yard field goal). Their “new” kicker, Mike Badgley, actually kicked for them in Weeks 6 and 7 and was perfect on 10 kicks. It’s a wonder they didn’t stay with him, but fantasy owners in need of a kicker during the bye weeks should consider Badgley as the Chargers would rank as a top-10 scoring offense with a proficient kicker.

2) Tyler Boyd should be a top-10 wideout if A.J. Green (toe) is sidelined as expected.

You would think so, but sometimes a No.2 doesn’t produce as well when the spotlight is on him … and so is the opposing team’s best cornerback. How did Adam Thielen do without Stefon Diggs to draw attention away from him last weekend? If Green is sitting for multiple games, as Adam Schefter has reported, defensive coordinators will be able to double team Boyd. A healthy John Ross might be the beneficiary of the Green injury, but we don’t yet know if he’s over his groin injury. This situation seems up in the air for now. If Ross isn’t ready then Boyd would be the only reliable option for Andy Dalton.

3) Adrian Peterson will be an RB1 in the second half of the season too.

False. Through the first eight games Peterson is averaging 13.4 FPts/G which ranks 12th among all backs, but all that is in the past. You can’t run if there is no hole to run through and the Washington OL is a mess. Actually, the line would have to improve to be a mess. Starting LT Trent Williams is out about a month with a thumb injury. Starting RG Brandon Scherff is out for the season with a torn pec muscle. Meanwhile. LG Shawn Lauvao was just placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL, ending his season. If you can trade AP, now is the time to do so before it become obvious to the rest of your league.

4) San Francisco quarterback du jour, Nick Mullens, should be picked up immediately after his performance last Thursday.

No. Sure he had a great week, throwing for three touchdowns and getting verified on Twitter last Thursday, but for fantasy owners he’s not a great play. Hey, he was playing against Oakland, a team that has obviously quit for the season. Mullens threw the ball just 22 times and you can’t reliably score enough fantasy points at that level. His next opponent, the New York Giants, while just 1-7, is ranked 10th against opposing quarterbacks yielding 20.7 FPts/G. They will have had a week to prepare and video to watch. The 49ers have a bye and in the fantasy playoffs he faces the tough Seahawks twice and Broncos once. Mullens is really only a viable play in Week 12 against Tampa Bay.

5) The Green Bay Packers are still searching for a replacement for Jordy Nelson.

Actually they have two receivers who have posted at least 10 points in each of the past four games – Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. With Geronimo Allison out indefinitely, MVS (10.9 FPts/G last four) is a solid complement to Adams and almost any starting wideout for Aaron Rodgers is fantasy worthy.