Byes – Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Miami, Minnesota

Truths

“I don’t want any yes-men around me. I want everybody to tell me the truth even if it costs them their jobs.” – Samuel Goldwyn

1) Part of the reason we are disappointed with Bijan Robinson’s production is he is lacking in the passing game.

True. He’s seen just nine targets over the past three games. After a target share of 22% in game one and 17% in game two, he’s seen 7%, 12% and 6% the past three games. Robinson (ranks 23rd at 13.5FPts/G) has yet to score through the air after reaching the end zone four times in 2023. He has received 17 touches per game in 2024, just one better than last season when we thought he wasn’t being used enough. Did OC Arthur Smith sneak back to Atlanta while we weren’t looking? It’s possible the rise of Darnell Mooney (40 targets) and Ray-Ray McCloud’s usage (31) have come at the expense of Robinson. If this assumption is correct, then Robinson’s expectations must be permanently lowered.

2) I’m buying in on Chase Brown.

Brown has seen his percentage of the run game increase each weekend from 25% the first two games to 50% and 57% the past two weeks. He’s been a much more productive runner than starter Zack Moss (5.6 ypc to 3.7 ypc) and Moss’ ankle is a bit iffy after an injury in the fourth quarter against the Ravens. He might still be available at a reasonable price.

3) “Scary Terry” McLaurin finally has his guy.

I was concerned early on this season when Daniels was running more than passing. But over the past three games, he’s not only looked to McLaurin (24 targets), but he’s looked for him on deep routes, not just the short throws from the first two games (2-17-0 and 6-22-0). McLaurin is averaging 17.9 FPts/G since Week 3 and have Baltimore (29th in opposing WR points allowed) and Carolina (23rd) up next on the schedule.

4) Jordan Mason should be good for another month before his value drops.

I hear all the noise about Christian McCaffrey returning “soon” but I think CMC doesn’t see the field until Week 10 after the 49ers Week 9 bye. He hasn’t practiced in forever and can’t be in game shape. Even when he returns the 49ers aren’t going to overload him, particularly with how well Mason has played. Mason saw his lowest RB share this Sunday (74%), but I blame part of that on the extreme heat in California over the weekend. Keep Mason in your starting lineup for the next few weeks and then trade him the McCaffrey owner.

5) Much of the medical devastation has been to elite fantasy receivers.

True. Look below and you can clearly see five of the top-six fantasy receivers have missed time. Even at that, the list doesn’t include Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. Both Eagles wideouts are expected back after Philadelphia had a bye in Week 5 and Malik Nabers could return in Week 6. Kupp should return after the Rams bye this week, but Nacua is still likely a month away and Rice isn’t going to be around for a long while, if at all, this season. I expect Collins to miss two weeks even after reports the hamstring issue was just mild.

Lies

“I was not lying. I said things that later seemed to be untrue.” – Richard Nixon

1) Baker Mayfield has finally made us all believers.

False. He’s only rostered in 76% of all Yahoo leagues. On another major site I checked he was only started in 52% of all leagues this weekend. How is that possible? He’s ranked fourth at his position, producing 25 FPts/G. He’s second in touchdown passes with 11, one behind Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold. The schedule gets a little tougher for Mayfield with three of the next four opponents ranked in the top half of “QB fantasy points allowed,” but at this point unless he’s a backup to Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels or maybe Burrow what are you doing? He’s a better fantasy option than Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray among many others.

2) Those starting Chuba Hubbard should be concerned that Jonathon Brooks is eligible to come off the IR soon.

Nope. In case you haven’t been paying attention, Hubbard has put together three solid game in a row. He’s averaged 23.2 FPts/G since quarterback Andy Dalton took over the reins of the Carolina offense. The Panthers have yet to open the 21-day window for Brooks and frankly the way Hubbard is running they probably aren’t in a hurry to do so. You should have at least another month as the workhorse back, but if you are really worried then “sell high” now before they play there next four games against three top-12 opponents against the run (Atlanta, Denver and New Orleans).

3) In Rico Dowdle, the Cowboys have found their man.

I liked what I saw from Dowdle against the Steelers (19.4 points), tough inside running and involvement in the passing game, but I’m not sold that he is Dallas’ future at the position. He is for this season (11.0 FPts/G), however, because the other choices; Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Luepke and possible Dalvin Cook are toast, but dynasty owners should consider selling high later in the season.

4) High target volume is a guarantee of fantasy production.

Unfortunately, not always. Look at Amari Cooper and Courtland Sutton and you will see they are not lacking in targets, but they production is outside the top-45. Cooper has 47 targets, but only caught 20 of them for 10.6 FPts/G. I’m hoping a switch at quarterback in Cleveland or a trade to another team might be the answer for Cooper. Sutton has seen 41 targets and caught just 17 for 9.1 FPts/G and the team is not going to change from rookie Bo Nix anytime soon. He’s managed two fantasy-worthy weeks, but we hope Nix gets more accurate (61.2%). He certainly was at Oregon (74.9% from 2022-23).

5) Travis Kelce’s reign at tight end is over.

Not so fast my friend. Since the Rashee Rice knee injury, Kelce has produced 15.9 and 16 fantasy points. He’s caught 16-of-19 targets. And he still hasn’t scored yet. He averaged 8.7 touchdowns from 2018-2023, so I’m not giving up on him.