Byes – None

Truths

“Truth will always be truth, regardless of lack of understanding, disbelief or ignorance.” – W. Clement Stone

1) I’m really old… I remember when Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy value was better than Drake Maye.

Funny and temporarily true. Since becoming a starter, Maye has averaged 25.8 FPts/G in his two starts against Houston and Jacksonville, while Mahomes has averaged 18.6 FPts/G this season. No, Maye is not better than Mahomes in real life, but in the fantasy world he has produced very well, so far. Unfortunately, those days are about to end. The Patriots next three opponents are the Jets, Titans and Bears who rank third, second and ninth, respectively, in QB fantasy points allowed. Sit Maye on your bench immediately.

2) What happened to Courtland Sutton last Thursday defies the odds.

True. Being healthy for an entire game and not seeing a single target is as amazing as it is horrifying to fantasy owners. Sutton had averaged 7.83 targets per game heading into the Thursday night game against New Orleans. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix was averaging 33 passing attempts per game. If we assume Sutton has a one-in-five chance of seeing a target (normally, five people are eligible to catch a pass from the quarterback on each play) then the chance he wouldn’t see a target on 26 passing attempts is 0.003022. Given that Sutton was the Broncos leading receiver in targets (47), receptions (21) and yards (277), the chances that this would happen is a lot smaller than 0.3022-percent. I bet Nix’s first pass in Week 8 goes to Sutton.

3) “That’s why I’m well compensated,” said Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin after replacing a 4-2 Justin Fields with Russell Wilson.

Fact. After a slow start, Wilson finished the Sunday night game with 27.5 fantasy points – third-best in Week 7 behind only Monday night quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. It was Wilson’s best fantasy total since Week 2 of 2023. Wilson will be “start-able” in three of the next four weeks, playing the New York Giants, then a bye followed by Washington and Baltimore. The Giants rank 22nd against opposing quarterbacks, while the Commanders rank 13th and Ravens 30th.

4) Speaking of Mayfield, his fantasy value, the best of his career, is in trouble due to injuries to his receiving corps Monday night.

One hundred-percent true. In just under 60 minutes, he went from having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as his starting wideouts to rookie Jalen McMillan and journeyman Sterling Shepard. Mayfield was No.2 among quarterbacks averaging 27.5 FPts/G, but he’ll be hard-pressed to be anywhere near that going forward. He might get Evans back in a month (severe hamstring), but Godwin is lost for the season (dislocated ankle). Mayfield will likely become a “dink and dunk” guy, using Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker as receivers in many instances. His production will plummet while the running backs could get a boost in value.

5) Play any quarterback, whoever it may be, against the Jacksonville defense.

Facts. The Jaguars’ pass defense is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (26.9 FPts/G). They have allowed the most passing touchdowns (16) and have the fewest interceptions (1 – tied with three other teams). Only one quarterback, Deshaun Watson has scored fewer than 22 fantasy points and we know how poorly Watson was performing in 2024 before his Achilles injury. He probably couldn’t have produced a good fantasy total against my Division III Susquehanna River Hawks defense.

Lies

“An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it.” – Mahatma Gandhi

1) Someone just called Christian McCaffrey the Mike Trout of the NFL.

Not quite. They are both great when they play and too often watching in street clothes, but CMC is quite a bit better than Trout. Since 2020, Trout has played in just 39.4 percent of all games (319 of 810 possible games). Since 2020, McCaffrey has played in 42 of 74 games or 56.7-percent and 32 games of a possible 34 (94.1%) the last two seasons. The objection fantasy owners should be making is why the 49ers organization kept this year’s injury quiet for so long, enticing so many fantasy owners to draft CMC first overall when he wasn’t ready to play football.

2) It will be impossible to find fantasy-worthy replacements for Evans, Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.

False, at least on a short-term basis it’s possible. If Jauan Jennings (44% rostered) returns he’s certainly viable along with just activated Ricky Pearsall (13%). In Tampa, McMillan (6%) should be the No.1 wide receiver and Cade Otton a useful tight end. Cedric Tillman (2%) led the Amari Cooper-less Browns in targets and rookie Keon Coleman (49%) might be worth a shot in Buffalo. Just to name a few who aren’t on many rosters.

3) We are still waiting to see the Drake London we wanted on Draft Day.

No, sorry, what you see is what you get. He’s certainly much better than he was with Desmond Ridder as the starting quarterback, but even with Kirk Cousins, he’s not Ja’Marr Chase. He’s had one really bad game (Week 1) and one really good game (Week 5) and four of the remaining five games produced between 17.4 and 19.4 fantasy points. He’s a solid No.9 overall averaging 17.6 FPts/G and that’s what you should expect the rest of the way as the Falcons also have Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson requiring targets too.

4) Jerry Jones… “We couldn’t afford Derrick Henry.”

Completely false. Had owner/GM Jones signed Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb at the going off-season rates last February instead of just before the season began, he’d have had plenty of money for Texas-native Henry. All Henry has done is run for a league-high eight touchdowns and 873 yards to produce 22.9 FPts/G. He even caught a touchdown pass Monday night. To be sure, he might not have been this good in Dallas without the Lamar Jackson threat, but he would surely be better than Rico Dowdle (11 FPts/G) and Ezekiel Elliott (4.5).

5) When Isiah Pacheco returns, Kareem Hunt will lose all his value – trade him right now.

Not so fast my friend. First off, although Pacheco is eligible to come of the IR in Week 8, it’s likely that he won’t return until Week 10. Second, given how well Hunt has played (averaging 75 rushing yards per game and one touchdown), I would expect a shared situation at that time at least for a couple of games and then perhaps a 70/30 split the rest of the way. Hunt has always been good around the goal line, so even with reduced opportunities, he can still score.