Based on what we saw from the Raiders last week against the 49ers
the team has already given up on the season with Jon Gruden making
a play at the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. If Nick
Mullens can throw for three touchdowns and look like the second
coming of Jimmy G, I feel confident that Philip Rivers can do
the same. Rivers has yet to throw for fewer than two touchdowns
in any game this season, and pairing him with Keenan Allen in
a cash stack should provide an excellent floor.
This is not a pick for the faint of heart. If you are risk averse
and prefer to play it safe with your quarterback play, then McCown
is not for you. But if you are looking for a $4,300 quarterback
play with the upside of a multi-touchdown game, McCown could be
the GPP play with home run potential. I understand that the Bills
defense ranks first in fewest points allowed to quarterbacks for
fantasy purposes and McCown has yet to throw a pass this season.
But McCown does have a history of big games at home in somewhat
surprising circumstances, like 303 passing yards and three touchdowns
against the Panthers last season.
All four of Drew Brees’ subpar fantasy performances came in road
matches away from the comfort of the Mercedes Benz Superdome.
Although the Bengals do allow the fourth-most points to opposing
quarterbacks, this game could be another Kamara and Mark Ingram
game, with Brees limited to a few touchdowns and less than 300
yards.
There are numerous cash game plays at the running back position
this week, including Alvin Kamara against the Bengals and Melvin
Gordon against the Raiders. The one that stands out to me above
all the rest is Kareem Hunt playing at home against the Arizona
Cardinals. Not only does Hunt have at least one touchdown in every
game dating back to Week 2, but he also reached the 30-point plateau
in three of his previous four games. It also doesn’t hurt to play
at home against a team that is tied for the league in most points
allowed to running backs. This could be a lopsided blowout by
the end of the first quarter, with Hunt a near lock for at least
one touchdown.
There will be more than a few players scared to play Jones based
on his costly fumble last week against the Patriots. But I anticipate
this will be a lopsided game and Mike McCarthy will use the second
half to give Jones close out carries in what could be a get-well
game for all Packers skill position players. This play carries
a high-risk/high-reward that is perfect for GPP slates, and Jones’
$5000 salary gives owners roster flexibility.
Cohen’s value has been realized in games in which the Bears are
forced to pass the ball at a high rate and in game scripts playing
against other high scoring offenses. With Khalil Mack returning
to the defense and the Lions struggling mightily on offense, this
game could turn out to be more of a Jordan Howard game than one
for Cohen. Although he is always a risk to break a screen pass
for a long touchdown, I prefer to play Cohen in more favorable
matchups.
Allen has been a disappointment for most of the season with only
two games over 20 fantasy points and only one touchdown in the
year. Not exactly the type of production many of us anticipated
after the way he finished last year and with the perceived spike
in volume after Hunter Henry went down. Despite his overall lackluster
play, Allen caught nine balls for 90 yards when the Chargers played
host to the Raiders earlier this season and should have a similar
floor this week in Oakland. One would assume that with just one
receiving touchdown on the year Allen would be a prime candidate
for some positive TD regression in the final quarter of the season,
and I would not be surprised if that starts this week versus an
Oakland team that has all but quit. Pair Allen with Rivers for
a solid cash stack this week.
Gordon’s ownership level in GPP formats may not be as high
as some anticipate with owners looking to avoid what could be
a tough matchup against a Titans defense that has been playing
well as of late. I understand the worry, but Gordon’s 6K
salary compared to the volume he receives from Tom Brady and his
threat to score a touchdown makes him a strong start in my book.
It sounds like Hill is going to play through a groin injury as
the Chiefs take on the Cardinals at home. Hill is always a threat
for a monster day, but this game seems like it could be a lopsided,
run-heavy contest that is all but decided by halftime. Sure, Hill
may beat the Cardinals deep for a score, but I doubt he will be
heavily featured in what should be a cakewalk for the Chiefs.
The Dolphins rank fifth in fantasy points allowed to tight ends
over the past five weeks after allowing five receiving touchdowns
to the position. This is precisely the type of matchup that Jimmy
Graham owners have been looking to exploit, and Graham has been
active as of late with 100 yards or a score in three of his last
four games. He may not possess the floor of elite tight ends like
Travis Kelce, but his $2,400 savings compared to Kelce gives Graham
owners options to pay up elsewhere.
Other options to consider - Jack
Doyle vs. Jacksonville and O.J.
Howard vs. Washington
Davis playing on the road against the Bucs is my favorite GPP
cheap tight end play of the week. Davis has been more productive
and explosive than Jordan Reed, and his volume of ten targets
over the past two weeks is higher than Jared Cook and the same
as Jimmy Graham. The Bucs allow the second-most points to opposing
tight ends, and this game has the looks over being a high-scoring
contest with Smith and Davis chasing points in the second half.
There are not many tight end plays that I have strong feelings
about fading so I will stick with Trey Burton with the Bears playing
in a similar situation as last week against the Bills. Burton
salvaged his low volume day with a receiving touchdown, but four
targets are not going to be enough for Burton to be a difference-making
player in DFS. Also, the Lions are pretty tough against tight
ends, and I anticipate Matt Nagy will use a run-heavy approach
with Jordan Howard.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost:
Chargers ($3,500) @ Raiders
Well Priced with Upside: Rams ($2,300)
vs. Seahawks
