Opinions about picking at the “turn” in a fantasy football
redraft have always ranged from being ecstatic to being downright
discouraged. It is such a long wait between picks, but if two players
you really like fall to you, it can feel like you’re in the
best spot imaginable.
Truth be told, the value of picking at the turn really depends on
the circumstances of a particular season. This article will take
a look at “both” turns as if you had the first or last pick in your
draft. For the sake of making our points, we’ll assume that you’re
part of a 12-team league as that is by far the most common league
size these days.
So, how does it shake out from the turn in 2017? Let’s explore
all the options:
The 1-2 Turn (Overall picks 12 &
No matter what scoring format you use, the top 3 RBs and top 3 WRs
will be gone by the time your pick comes. This season that means
you can cross David
Jones, and Odell
Beckham Jr. off your list. If any of those six were to somehow
slip to you, by all means grab one, but it isn’t likely to happen.
More likely, you’ll be selecting from the “second tier” of players
value-wise. This group includes four additional RBs and three-to-four
additional wide receivers. It used to also include Rob
Gronkowski, but I think his injury history makes him too risky
of a pick for the first turn.
WR-WR? Or one of each? Picking two from the same position will
leave you with a questionable No.1 player at the position you
ignore, so the recommendation here is a RB and WR combination.
Freeman would go well with one of Mike
Nelson. For some, Jordan
Howard or Michael
Thomas might be work a look, but my fear of sophomore slumps
eliminates them as options at this point in the draft. Regardless
of the player, having a true No.1 player at fantasy football’s
two most prominent positions makes the most sense.
The 2-3 Turn (Overall picks 24 & 25):
The return of the “stud” running backs this year likely means
you spent your first pick on David
Johnson or Le’Veon
Bell. Although, a case could certainly be made for Antonio
Brown, given his consistency over the past several seasons.
Assuming the former, there are numerous strategies here that make
sense. An elite QB or the previously mentioned Gronkowski are
options for one of your picks, but make little sense as a pair
as that would leave you ridiculously thin at the WR position.
With RB value being so similar beyond the first 8-10 players,
that’s probably a position you can wait on unless a Jay
Ajayi or DeMarco
Murray were to fall in your lap.
That narrows it down to two choices then: QB/TE-WR or WR-WR (unless
you opted for Antonio Brown in Round 1). Aaron
Rodgers is probably the only QB I would consider this soon,
but depending on your scoring system, a case could be made for
Brady or Drew
Brees as well. It all depends on how much you value the QB
position. If a WR run occurred just prior to the 24th overall
selection, I would suggest drafting a QB deserves some consideration.
But, if players like Amari
Baldwin, or DeAndre
Hopkins are still available, picking a duo from that group
would be a very good use of the turn. If a WR run is in full force,
Thomas and Brandin
Cooks are worth a look. However, if all of the names I just
mentioned have been selected 23 picks in, a RB has likely fallen
way too far and then pairing him with your favorite WR available
is the play. As for Gronkowski, if he falls all the way to the
2-3 turn, selecting him depends on your comfort level based on
an extensive injury history.
The 3-4 Turn (Overall picks 36 & 37):
Assuming you took my advice at the 1-2 turn and have a RB-WR combo,
you can now focus on the two best players available. After 35
picks, most of the top tier talent is gone, but you might be able
to grab players with high upside that will go well with your “safe”
initial picks. Examples would be Joe
Lynch, or Christian
McCaffrey at RB and/or Sammy
Hill, or Keenan
Allen at WR. It does not pay to play it safe with both picks,
so at least one of the two should have a high ceiling with respect
to possible production. If you’re a person who likes to swing
for the fences, two high-upside players isn’t out of the question
at the 3-4 turn.
If one of the top 3 previously noted signal callers are available
here (Rodgers, Brady, Brees), they would be worth a look. Travis
Kelce also has a legitimate shot at being fantasy football’s
top TE this season, so give him a glance as well. Beyond those
four, it’s too early to consider any remaining players at the
QB and TE positions. If you are a drafting conservative and want
to play it safe with one of your two picks, players like Mark
Crabtree, or Davante
Adams will do. Just make sure you limit yourself to one “safe”
pick here or you’ll regret it as the season unfolds.
The 4-5 Turn (Overall picks 48 & 49):
By now, you’ve got one great player (David
Johnson) and at the very least, two additional players (Doug
Hopkins) you expect to produce a consistent amount of top
12 weekly finishes. It’s a wonderful position to be in. If you
took the RB-WR-WR route with your first three selections (my top
recommendation), you likely can find a very solid second RB here
with one of your next two picks. If you’re into slow and steady
wins the race kind of guys, Spencer
Ware and C.J.
Anderson should still be available. It’s also possible that
running backs like Mark Ingram or Carlos
Hyde fall this far based on various uncertainties. Or, if
you’re in the mood for rolling the dice on some guys with upside,
Cook would be a very good fit here to pair with Johnson, Bell,
or Elliott. I’m not going to recommend Eddie
Lacy here having been burned by him in the past, but some
may feel otherwise about his revamped potential in Seattle.
Once you’ve acquired your No.2 RB, all other options are on the
table for the second pick. If news regarding Andrew
Luck improves prior to your draft, he is worth consideration
here as are quarterbacks Matt
Ryan and Russell
Olsen is a good value at TE here as well. Beyond that it comes
down to value at the other positions. Has a WR you covet fallen
farther than you expected? Even though you’ve already got two
players at that position, it never hurts to add a “steal” and
give yourself additional options, particularly in a league in
which you start three wide receivers.
The 5-6 Turn (Overall picks 60 & 61):
First and foremost, if you haven’t addressed the QB or TE position
at this point, it’s a great time to look at those options first.
Waiting until pick No.84 to do so will likely leave you with a
marginal starter at best, particularly at tight end. Quarterback
is so deep this year that you could opt to wait until the next
turn, but it’s a risk. Players like Cam
Eifert, and Delanie
Walker fall into the mix here as good values. If Luck, Ryan,
or Wilson has fallen to this point, they’re obviously great choices
as well. I think Jimmy
Graham will be gone at this point, making him a poor target
for either turn, but if he slides, he’s a no-brainer given his
If you do decide to wait on QB or have addressed the position
already, you’re probably looking at No.3 RBs and WRs, meaning
players whose ranking at the position ranges from 25-36. If either
position has only one player on your roster come this turn, they
become a must for the pick. You can’t wait until the end of Round
7 to grab your second RB or WR. So, the mix of players after six
rounds would be: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE…or 1 QB/TE, 2/3 RBs,
and 2/3 WRs.
The 6-7 Turn (Overall picks 72 & 73):
Previous advice about quarterbacks and tight ends applies here.
You don’t want to grab your first guy at either position 96 picks
into the draft. So, if you’ve neglected both to this point, your
choice is simple. Remember, after you pick at the turn, two dozen
picks get made before you’re up again. You simply can’t afford
to neglect a main position beyond this point. If you have both,
it means you are painfully thin at RB, WR, or both and again,
the choice is simple. Just make sure when you come out of this
turn, you’ve got a minimum of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 TE assuming
TE is a required position in your league. If your first six picks
produce this combination, pick seven is about fortifying whichever
position RB/WR you feel you are weakest at moving forward.
Hopefully, this article has provided a foundation for what to
consider early in your draft as you endure the painful wait between
picks known as “the turn.” As the later rounds come and go, draft
position is less important as people are adding players they like
based on perceived need and value. Also, if you’re picking 2nd,
3rd, 10th, or 11th, most of these recommendations would apply
to you as well. Remember, you never need to be discouraged about
where it is you’re picking from in a redraft league. There are
many paths to a championship for those whose strategy is well-formed.