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Inside the Matchup
Wildcard Weekend
1/1/15

By: Sal Marcoccio | Brian Thorne | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith




ARI @ CAR | BAL @ PIT | CIN @ IND | DET @ DAL

 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Caron 47 17 73.4
2 Marcoccio 46 18 71.9
3 Smith 45 19 70.3
4 Thorne 37 27 57.8

Cardinals @ Panthers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Congratulations to Arizona Cardinals quarterback Ryan Lindley, who finally threw his first touchdown pass in the NFL this past week against the San Francisco 49ers, although the Cardinals fell in the game and are now limping into the playoffs as a wild card team as opposed to being the No. 1 seed with a bye. Lindley still holds the NFL record for most pass attempts without throwing a touchdown pass, but his 316 yards and two touchdown passes against a good 49ers defense should give Cardinals fans some hope heading into this weekend’s game against the Panthers. Not only did Lindley have his best game as a pro, but wide receiver Michael Floyd had by far his biggest fantasy day of the season as he caught eight passes for 153 yards and both of Lindley’s touchdowns. Unfortunately, Lindley also threw three interceptions, which helped lead to the Cardinals losing the game. Now with Lindley and the Cardinals heading to Carolina, fantasy owners will be wondering if he is worthy of being in lineups in daily leagues?

While the Panthers started the season off extremely poorly against opposing quarterbacks, it’s worth noting that they have been significantly stingier against the position as the season has gone on. In fact, their two best games of the season have come over the past two weeks as they held the Browns duo of Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer as well as Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to a total of 15 fantasy points. Perhaps worse yet, the Panthers have allowed a total of just 10 touchdown passes against them over their past nine games. That includes two games against both Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. This sudden emergence of the Panthers defense, combined with the questionable quarterbacking of Ryan Lindley, makes it very tough to trust anyone in this passing game. With Larry Fitzgerald still seemingly feeling the effects of a sprained MCL and no other player regularly getting into the end zone, the only player who fantasy owners should have much interest in here is Floyd. Even then, he’s a risky play given the up-and-down nature of his season.

Running Game Thoughts: The Arizona running game just isn’t quite the same without Andre Ellington. The duo of Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor simply do not have the same explosion and playmaking ability that Ellington possesses. Combine that with the fact that the team is trotting Ryan Lindley onto the field this Saturday (unless Drew Stanton has a miraculous recovery), it just doesn’t appear likely that Williams nor Taylor will be in line for a huge game here on Wild Card Weekend. If Arizona wins this weekend in Carolina, it will likely be due to their defense stepping up and making big plays, or possibly even scoring for them. Because of that, it’s going to be very tough to justify finding a place for Williams or Taylor on fantasy rosters for the playoffs. Sure, Williams had 17 touches in Week 17, but the previous game against Seattle saw him touch the ball twice all day. Meanwhile, Taylor’s usage has been a bit more consistent with him having rushed seven times in Week 17 and 11 times against the Seahawks in Week 16. Still, neither player is particularly exciting as they go up a Panthers defense that has been excellent against the run down the stretch.

Carolina has not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 10. While they haven’t exactly played against the world’s most talented group of running backs during that stretch, the current Arizona backfield falls in line with the worst groups in the league. The Panthers defense has averaged just over 73 rushing yards per game against them over their past seven games, so there’s not likely to be much to go around for this unit. Fantasy owners would be wise to stay away from this group.

Projections:
Ryan Lindley: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Kerwynn Williams: 40 rush yds
Stepfan Taylor: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds
John Brown: 25 rec yds
Darren Fells: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: If the Cam Newton that showed up in his final three starts of the season was the same guy that showed up during the rest of the season, perhaps the Panthers wouldn’t have had to battle their way into the playoffs in Week 17 against a then 6-9 Atlanta Falcons team. But Newton showed his leadership abilities and rode a huge day from the Carolina defense to a solid fantasy day himself despite throwing for just 114 yards and a touchdown on the day. Newton showed up for his fantasy owners by adding an additional 51 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Newton has rushed for 246 yards and three touchdowns over his past four starts and is beginning to remind us why he was once considered the best dual-threat quarterback in the league. While Kelvin Benjamin’s Week 17 output of one reception for nine yards was his worst of the season and was obviously very disappointing, it was more of a product of the game flow than an actual lapse in success on the field. Benjamin still finished the season with a very solid rookie output of 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns. Tight end Greg Olsen has also been quiet over his past two games, but had previously come off of back-to-back 10 reception games against the Saints and Buccaneers, thus making him one of the premiere fantasy tight ends for the playoffs, perhaps only behind Rob Gronkowski.

This Carolina passing game now has the task of hosting an Arizona defense that, while still very good, has shown signs of beginning to break down over the past few weeks. The Cardinals have given up back-to-back two touchdown passing days to Seattle’s Russell Wilson and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick. Perhaps more importantly for those analyzing this game, however, is that the Cardinals have not done a good job in containing those mobile quarterbacks on the ground. Wilson rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown while Kaepernick added 63 rushing yards of his own. With Newton seemingly healthy and running the ball more than he had been earlier in the season, things are looking good for the possibility of Newton to put up some solid numbers through the air and potentially add a 50-plus yard day with a decent possibility of a rushing touchdown on the ground.

Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps sensing that his time in Carolina and as a starting NFL running back may soon be coming to an end, Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart has certainly been making a case to remain relevant to the team for 2015. Over his past five games, Stewart has averaged over 100 total yards. He did seem to struggle to find room against a bad Atlanta defense this past week as he ran for just 49 yards on 13 carries, but the Panthers also allowed other players like Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whittaker to get significant touches in the blowout victory, which certainly hurt Stewart’s chances to put up big numbers, especially late in the game. Some fans seem to be worried about the potential return of DeAngelo Williams to the lineup, but the coaching staff in Carolina has not shown any real commitment to getting Williams back onto the field in a significant role. Look for Stewart to remain the lead dog and be relied upon heavily this Saturday.

He won’t have an easy day, though, as Arizona finished 4th in fantasy points given up to opposing running backs on the season. The Cardinals held opposing backs to 10 or fewer points (standard scoring) in six games during the regular season. However, those looking for some optimism can point to some recent struggles that the team has had to control opposing running games. The Arizona defensive unit did not allow a single team’s running backs to rush for more than 100 yards in a game until Week 13. But from Week 13 on, they allowed four teams to do so in their final five contests. This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, but fantasy owners could do worse than Stewart here in the Wildcard round.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Olsen: 75 rec yds

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20 ^ Top

Ravens vs. Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Ravens and Steelers, one of the NFL’s best current rivalries, will matchup in the playoffs for the third time in the last seven seasons. The two teams have been evenly matched over the last five to six years, splitting their last fourteen meetings with seven wins apiece. Joe Flacco has had an inconsistent season, but finished strong in a playoff clinching Week 17 win over the Cleveland Browns. He finished the season with very respectable numbers, completing 62% of his passes for 3,986 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In his two matchups with Pittsburgh this season Flacco averaged 234.5 passing yards and totaled 4 touchdowns with only one interception. During the first half of the season it was old man Steve Smith leading the way in the receiving corps and the veteran finished the season with a 79-1065-6 stat-line after being left for dead following a miserable season in Carolina. While Steve Smith was red hot to start the season Torrey Smith was equally ice cold during the season’s first five weeks. However the younger Smith eventually came on strong scoring 10 of his 11 touchdowns during Weeks 6-17. Torrey has always excelled as a deep target and still doesn’t see many targets in the short or intermediate passing game despite improving his route tree during his first three seasons in the league. The Ravens may need to get into a shootout with the Steelers on Saturday Night with their porous pass defense likely not able to stop the Pittsburgh passing attack. Joe Flacco has shown evidence of being able to put up gaudy passing statistics, but it hasn’t necessarily been his strong suit. The Ravens are at their best when they can establish a running game, and take occasional shots downfield.

If the Ravens are forced to keep up with the Steelers red hot passing game, in their favor is the fact that the Steelers’ secondary has been amongst the worst in the league in 2014. Pittsburgh allowed 253.1 passing yards per game and yielded 30 passing touchdowns during the regular season. The defense can bring the heat at times, but when teams are able to protect their quarterback there will usually be an open man to get the ball to. Torrey Smith’s speed and Steve Smith’s strength and quickness could cause major problems for this beleaguered secondary – especially if the Ravens running game forces Troy Polamalu, who struggles in pass defense anyway and is struggling with a knee injury, up close to the line of scrimmage all night.

Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett appeared to be over his ankle injury in Week 17, after struggling through his prior two games, finishing with 119 rushing yards on 17 carries. At 29 years old, Forsett shattered his career season high marks in 2014, finishing with 1,266 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. Forsett started the season as only a third-down back, behind Bernard Pierce (and Ray Rice) on the depth chart, but quickly earned a bigger role after outperforming the struggling Pierce. The career journeyman is only 5’8” and 197 pounds but he runs with surprising power and is quick through the hole and shifty enough to get past an initial defender. The Ravens feature an above average offensive line, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s version of the zone blocking scheme and will need to be able to get Forsett going against a stout Pittsburgh run defense if they want to keep their season alive.

Forsett will be tested at Heinz Field against a strong Steelers’ run defense that is only allowing 100.3 yards per game on the ground. The Steelers like to move their safeties up into the box to shut down the run, which has left them susceptible in the passing game all season. The Steelers were able to hold Forsett under 100 yards combined in their two regular season games and will be game-planning to keep him in check once again, as they probably like their odds in an aerial battle between Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 285 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Bernard Pierce: 5 rush yds
Justin Forsett: 65 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Torrey Smith: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 65 rec yds, 2 TDs
Owen Daniels: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers are going to need Ben Roethlisberger to come through this week, especially in light of the strong possibility of Le’Veon Bell missing the game. The good news is that Big Ben set career highs with 4,952 passing yards and 32 passing touchdowns while only throwing 9 interceptions. After showing initially showing resistance to the offensive style of offensive coordinator Todd Haley, Big Ben has thrived with a shorter, quicker passing game since the middle of last season. With Antonio Brown’s incredible quickness making him nearly impossible to cover, the offense has become at times unstoppable. Brown finished with the second most receptions in NFL history with 129 for 1,698 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. The biggest lift to the Steelers passing game, however, was the insertion of rookie Martavis Bryant into a bigger role after second-year wide receiver Markus Wheaton failed to build any rapport with Roethlisberger during the first half of the season. Bryant has made a major impact with his size, speed and big play ability. He can get deep behind a defense for long gains or can take a short bubble screen and explode past defenders, as he did last week for a 21-yard touchdown. Ben also has dependable tight end Heath Miller at his disposal to act as his security blanket. Miller has a knack for finding a soft spot in a defense and while he’s not the athletic freak that is the rage for tight ends today, he moves well enough for his size that he can get yards after the catch. This is an offense that is clicking right now and may be the only offense in the AFC that can go into New England and beat the Patriots in the post-season this year. Of course they will first need to get past Baltimore this week and get Le’Veon Bell healthy.

This isn’t your older brother’s Pittsburgh-Baltimore matchup, as we could see an aerial display in Heinz Field rather than the smash mouth slugfest we were used to seeing when these two teams matched up in the recent past. Both teams have struggled to shut down opposing passing offenses all season long. The Baltimore pass defense finished 24th ranked in the league, allowing 248.7 yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns. Ben and his weapons should be able to keep their team in the game, despite the possibility to missing a major piece of the offense.

Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell is coming off a spectacular second season and has been a major factor for the Steelers’ offense both running the ball and as a receiver out of the backfield. Unfortunately, it seems highly unlikely that he will play this week after suffering a hyperextension of his knee in the Week 17 game against Cincinnati. The team just signed veteran free agent Ben Tate who was recently released by the Vikings further indicating that Bell is not expected to be able to suit up. Rookies Josh Harris and Dri Archer, who have combined for 56 yards rushing all season, will take Bell’s place in the backfield, which doesn’t bode well for the Steelers’ rushing attack. Harris did have a 59-yard touchdown run called back last week on a holding penalty so perhaps all hope is not lost. Harris was an undrafted free agent singing out of Wake Forest who spent much of the season on the practice squad after gaining 41 yards on 8 carries during the preseason. Archer is tiny at 5’8”, 173 pounds and while he could be effective on a handful of screen passes or outside runs, he’s likely to struggle in pass protection or if asked to carry too big of a load. It’s likely against a tough Ravens’ run defense that this becomes the Ben Roethlisberger show even more than ever.

Making matters worse for the inexperienced Harris and Archer is that they’ll be facing the league’s 4th ranked run defense. The Ravens allowed only 88.3 yards per game during the regular season. Making matters that much more worse is that the Ravens will get back mammoth lineman Haloti Ngata this week who returns from a four game suspension for taking Adderall.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 315 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT., 15 rush yds
Josh Harris: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Dri Archer: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 125 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Martavis Bryant: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Ravens 31, Steelers 30

Bengals at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck led the league with 40 touchdown throws and more than 4,700 passing yards, numbers that were just ahead of Aaron Rodgers, but Luck was beaten out by Rodgers as fantasy’s top point-earner due to the fact that Luck threw 16 interceptions and Rodgers just five. He’s a must-start this weekend, as is T.Y. Hilton, who is 10th at wide receiver in fantasy scoring. Coby Fleener should also get some consideration at tight end due to the position’s scarcity of impact players and the decent match-up he has with the Bengals.

Cincinnati was 20th in the NFL in pass defense and surrendered the third-fewest passing scores during the regular season. They were in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. However, they struggled at the end of the year, allowing 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in three of their final four contests.

Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson led the Colts in rushing this season, but that was only because Ahmad Bradshaw was sidelined with an injury in mid-November. Richardson ran for just over 500 yards with three scores while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. He’s a less effective back than Bradshaw’s replacement, Dan Herron, who should be in line as an RB2 this weekend against a Cincinnati team that allowed plenty of fantasy points to opposing running backs.

The Bengals ranked 20th in the league against the run and was 27th in rushing touchdowns permitted during the regular season. They allowed more receiving yards to running backs than all but one other team this season (NO) and more fantasy points to players at that position than all but five other squads.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 310 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Dan Herron: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 55 rec yds
Hakeem Nicks: 30 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Allen: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton had a middling season for any fantasy owner brazen enough to put him on their roster, throwing for just 19 touchdowns with 17 interceptions and ranking 18th in fantasy scoring at his position. Dalton has no place in fantasy lineups this weekend, but there are a pair of Bengals that do, though both are dealing with injuries. Wideout A.J. Green is dealing with a concussion, and as of this writing there was no word on his availability for this weekend’s game, but if he plays, he’s clearly a fantasy starter. The other is based mostly on match-up, and that’s tight end Jermaine Gresham. He’s got a back injury but is likely to play, which could be a good thing for fantasy owners. Gresham has three touchdowns since Week 14 and has an outstanding match-up against Indianapolis.

The Colts were 12th in the league against the pass and 20th in passing touchdowns given up during the regular season. They were slightly above average in terms of fantasy points surrendered to quarterbacks and allowed the fifth-fewest amount of points to wide receivers, but struggled against tight ends, with only three teams allowing more fantasy points to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill has established himself as the team’s top option as a runner, ending his rookie campaign with 1,100+ yards and nine scores on the ground. Giovani Bernard will still get some carries, but he’s more of a threat as a pass-catcher at this point, with Hill doing the heavy lifting via the run. Hill is a solid option this week against the Colts, who had their difficulties stopping opposing backs this year.

Indianapolis was 18th in the NFL versus the run and 21st in rushing scores allowed during the regular season. They gave up the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this year and the 11th-most fantasy points to players at the position.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Jeremy Hill: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 30 rush yds, 45 rec yds
A.J. Green: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 55 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Colts 28, Bengals 21 ^ Top

Lions at Cowboys - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Though he had a reasonably successful fantasy day, QB Matthew Stafford was unable to lead the Lions to a victory in Week 17 and thus they will play on the road for Wildcard weekend. In his career, Stafford is 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record, so leaving the comforts of Ford Field to play in the postseason doesn’t bode well for Detroit. Over the last half of the season the passing game has been underwhelming, with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games, including three contests where Stafford and the receiving corps were held out of the endzone. During that span the Lions have faced three playoff teams, each on the road, and have lost all three of those games. Against that trio Stafford has averaged just 221 yards per game and has thrown two interceptions with only three touchdowns. The return of WR Calvin Johnson to full health has provided a needed boost to the offense, though in his absences and limited performances WR Golden Tate stepped up quite well. For the season it is Tate who leads Detroit in yardage, but as expected Johnson does have the most touchdown receptions. For the season the Lions earned a top ten ranking in just one of the major passing categories, tied for the eighth fewest interceptions in the league; in every other area they show incredible inconsistencies, and on the road they’ve been at their worst.

Even teams that have struggled on the road have been able to find some semblance of stability when playing in Dallas, with the Cowboys losing two home games to teams that didn’t finish with a winning record (SF, WAS). Against the pass, Dallas ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in two categories, failing to create consistent pressure on the quarterback and surrendering 252 yards per game through the air. Despite that yardage, the Cowboys rank in the top quarter for both of touchdowns conceded and interceptions forced, so even when offenses have been able to move the ball down the field, more often than not the defense has been able to at least keep them out of the endzone. In closing the regular season on a four game winning streak, Dallas forced seven interceptions while allowing just four touchdowns. Though being much maligned for the majority of the season, the Cowboys have overcome injuries and criticism to put forth an impressive secondary, which has played an integral part in their aspirations for a championship season.

Running Game Thoughts: The last time Detroit won a playoff game the year was 1991 and Barry Sanders was the main man in their backfield. This season the Lions have been one of the five worst rushing teams in the NFL, averaging just 89 yards per game. On a per carry basis Detroit is even worse, with the fourth worst mark of 3.6 yards gained per attempt. The only player on the team who averages at least four yards per carry is a wide receiver, and unfortunately he’s only been given five attempts on the ground. Only three different players have recorded a rushing touchdown this season, with RB Joique Bell earning seven of the team’s total of 11 scores. Though RB Reggie Bush has been hurt or limited for a large portion of the season, he finally seems to be getting closer to full health in time for the playoffs. On the season Bell has carried the ball nearly three times as often as Bush, though as a receiver out of the backfield it has been Bush who has seen more targets and converted more receptions. With Stafford under center and both Johnson and Tate out wide, Detroit knows they don’t have to utilize their rushing attack to be successful. However with two healthy ball carriers available for this weekend it’s possible that they look to the running game more often than usual to provide better balance to the offense.

Against the run Dallas has been one of the best teams in the NFL this season, ranking in the top quarter for yards gained per game. A contributing factor to this success has been DT Henry Melton (knee) who will be unavailable for the remainder of the playoffs after being placed on Injured Reserve. Though he was not credited with a tackle in nine different contests this season, his presence in the middle of the defensive line allowed others in the front seven to be active in going after the ball carrier. The greatest weakness for the Cowboys run defense was their inability to keep teams out of the endzone, allowing the second most rushing touchdowns this season. Against Detroit this particular deficiency may not be fully exploited, as their 11 team rushing touchdowns is below average for the league. Furthermore the Lions don’t figure to run the ball frequently in scoring position since both Johnson and Tate are incredible targets in the redzone and the offensive line hasn’t had great success in creating running room. The absence of Melton may not make an incredible difference in the defensive stat lines, but for a front seven which lacked for depth for most of the season any disruption could help pave the way for an improved rushing attack from the Lions.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Joique Bell: 75 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Bush: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 65 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Though the yardage totals for the team are barely average for the league, the Cowboys have the second most passing touchdowns and the best mark for yards gained per attempt. At times, QB Tony Romo (back) has been limited but in the latter stages of the season he’s shown almost no signs of the injury which caused him to miss approximately five quarters in the middle of the year. The biggest beneficiary of his return to health has been WR Terrance Williams; as the Cowboys top deep threat his production has been most volatile in response to Romo and his ability to stretch the field with his arm. The leading pass catcher for the team, and the NFL leader in touchdown receptions, is WR Dez Bryant, who has been almost unaffected by the presence or absence of anyone else on offense. With 16 scores from 16 games and averaging over 82 yards per contest, Bryant is a top three fantasy receiver this year, and over the last half of the season he’s been even better. The final piece critical to the passing attack is TE Jason Witten, who after a slow start to the season worked his way into a top ten ranking for his position. With a highly efficient offense and a quarterback who has thrown fewer interceptions than three quarters of the league, the Cowboys have one of the best scoring offenses through the air which is complemented by an equally impressive rushing attack.

After a controversial play, a suspension which was unsurprising but also unexpected, and an appeal which led to the lifting of that suspension, DT Ndamukong Suh will be available for the Sunday showdown between these two silver and blue teams. For the year, few teams have been better at getting to the quarterback than the Lions, ranking in the top quarter of the league for sacks recorded. The strength of the Detroit defense is their front four, but with the pressure they’re able to create, the Lions are also highly rated in their secondary, tied in third place for interceptions forced and falling just outside of the top ten for passing touchdowns allowed. Against playoff teams in the second half of the season, Detroit has allowed two touchdowns through the air to each of those three opponents while surrendering an average of 296 yards per game. Though the Cowboys don’t figure to air it out to the same extent of those previous opponents, Romo and company will be even more of a threat to the endzone than the three teams which Detroit was unable to overcome during the regular season.

Running Game Thoughts: Even in a nearly-meaningless game in Week 17, RB DeMarco Murray was given a full workload. He turned 20 carries into 100 rushing yards and a touchdown, and another 21 yards through the air from three catches. That game became the 12th time this season Murray has gained at least 100 yards, and his score gave him 13 on the season which is the most in the league. Murray easily captured the rushing title for 2014, gaining nearly 36% more yards on the ground than another other ball carrier. Aside from him Dallas did very little else on the ground; no other running back received more than 51 carries, and in total volume no one else on the team was within 300 touches. When added together, the number of passes completed by the Cowboys and rushing attempts from the team is 836; the 449 total touches from Murray represents nearly 54% of the total plays executed by Dallas which did not result in an incomplete pass. The Cowboys are the second best rushing team in the league, and if someone with a star on their helmet is carrying the ball it’s almost guaranteed to be Murray; there was no more valuable player in fantasy football this season.

If there is one defense which can stop the Dallas rushing attack, that unit just may be the Lions and their dominant front seven. Against the run, no one has been better than Detroit; they surrender a miniscule 69 rushing yards per game; no other team allows fewer than 79. On a per carry basis the Lions are also best in the NFL, allowing 3.2 yards per attempt. Only two teams all season, and just one individual, have gained triple digit yardage with the ground attack, and only one of those contests resulted in a loss for Detroit. Though dominance of the run game doesn’t always lead to a victory for the Lions, it does allow the secondary to focus almost exclusively on the passing game rather than providing run support. Since Dallas has attempted the third most rushes in the NFL, the defensive front seven may have their work cut out for them, but if they can contain the rushing attack that will allow the secondary to key on the talented pass catchers who the Cowboys have relied on in the latter stages of the season.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 230 pass yds, 3 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Joseph Randle: 5 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Cowboys 34, Lions 17 ^ Top