Ravens at Broncos - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Ravens and Patriots will match up in the playoffs for the third time in recent years. While the Patriots have a 12-3 record in home playoff games in the Brady/Belichick era, the Ravens account for two of those Patriot losses. Joe Flacco’s seven road playoff wins are more than any other quarterback in NFL history, and he and the Ravens will come into this game with some confidence after taking care of the division rival Steelers at Heinz Field last week. Flacco has outplayed the legendary Tom Brady in all playoff matchups between the two teams, and only a dropped Lee Evans pass in the endzone has kept Flacco from being a perfect 3-0 against Brady in Foxboro. Flacco finished the regular season with respectable numbers, completing 62 percent of his passes for 3,986 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and threw for 259 yards with two touchdowns in last week’s wildcard game. Veteran Steve Smith caught 5 balls last week for 105 yards to follow up his resurgent regular season, where he finished with a 79-1,065-6 stat-line. Torrey Smith had a quiet game against Pittsburgh but scored 11 touchdowns during the regular season. He has the speed to get behind the Patriots defense, especially if he ends up being matched up with Brandon Browner. Unlike last week where the Ravens were looking at getting into a potential shootout with the Steelers, this week may be more of a defensive battle, especially if the Ravens can consistently get pressure on Brady. Flacco’s playoff experience will help keep the team confident should the game remain close into the fourth quarter. The Ravens would love to establish a running game and use play action to take occasional shots downfield against a tough Patriots secondary. Tight end Owen Daniels has clearly lost a step in his age 32 season but could be a key factor this week getting open in the short and immediate zones of attack, as he was able to do last week in Pittsburgh. Flacco will need to find his check-down options whenever the Smiths are locked down by Darrelle Revis and Browner, and the veteran Daniels plays that role well.

Torrey Smith’s speed and Steve Smith’s strength and quickness could cause problems for the Patriots, despite their competent secondary led by their upper- level cornerback tandem, Revis and Browner. Revis is still one of the top corners in the league, but Steve Smith should be able to outmuscle him at times even in tight coverage, and still has enough speed to make Revis’ job difficult. Browner is expected to be mostly matched up with Torrey Smith. He will likely try to play physical, jamming him off the line in order to throw the receiver off his game. If Torrey Smith can stay focused and beat Browner off the line, his speed should put him in position to make some big plays. During the regular season, the Patriots allowed 239.8 passing yards per game and 24 touchdown passes while grabbing 16 interceptions. The Ravens like to use their running game to force opposing safeties up toward the line of scrimmage so they can use the play- action game to take their shots downfield. If Baltimore is able to get this working, this game could get interesting.

Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett started off hot last week but had a quiet second half after losing a fumble that could have been costly. Forsett showed he was finally healthy after an ankle sprain plagued him late in the season, finishing with 119 rushing yards in his Week 17 contest. He averaged 6.8 yards per carry during the first half of last week’s game before being bottled up in the second half, and he should bounce back this week. At 29 years old, Forsett shattered his career season high marks in 2014, finishing with 1,266 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. Forsett is only 5’8” and 197 pounds, but he runs with surprising power, is quick through the hole and shifty enough to get past initial defenders. The Ravens feature an above- average offensive line, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s version of the zone blocking scheme, which is a good fit for Forsett’s skill set and could help offset the size in the middle of New England’s defense. The Ravens will need to be able to get Forsett going this week, after he gained only 36 yards last week, if they want to ruin the fans’ hope of one last late season Tom Brady/Peyton Manning playoff matchup.

Forsett will be tested at Gillette Stadium against a strong Patriots run defense that only allowed 104.3 rushing yards per game and 6 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. The Steelers were able to hold Forsett to 36 yards last week. Belichick will study the second half of that game, where Forsett finished with negative rushing yards, as he works to implement a scheme for this week’s game.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 5 rush yd
Bernard Pierce: 15 rush yds, 1 TD
Justin Forsett: 85 rush yds, 35 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 45 rec yds,
Owen Daniels: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The blueprint for beating the Patriots is well established, and the Baltimore Ravens’ execution of it has been a problem for the Patriots in their matchups. When opposing teams are able to get pressure up the middle, knocking him around and forcing him to get rid of the ball quickly, Tom Brady doesn’t look like the Hall of Famer that he is. With Haloti Ngata in the mix, the Ravens are able to generate a push up the middle and make life miserable for Brady. Of course just having the blueprint obviously doesn’t make following the plan easy, since we are after all talking about a future Hall of Famer. Brady is a surgeon that can pick apart a defense and has mastered a system which puts his targets in the perfect spot to beat their opponent. And those targets are all among the best at what they do. Julian Edelman has seamlessly replaced Wes Welker as the “slot machine” in this offense and has the trust of his veteran signal caller, to the point that Brady stood on the table demanding that the team re-sign him when he was a free agent this past offseason. The former Kent State quarterback caught 92 balls this season after catching 105 the season before. He helps keep the chains moving and opens up the field for one of the best weapons in the league, tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk was unanimously named to the All-Pro team this year after putting up a 82-1,124-12 stat-line, despite getting off to a slow start this season due to offseason ACL surgery. Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare due to his size, speed and athleticism. While the offense still lacks a true deep speed receiver to stretch the defense, former Panthers underachiever Brandon LaFell has done a fine job this season on the outside, adding 74 receptions for 953 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Patriots will be well- prepared to attack a secondary that has struggled this season, but it will all start with the five guys lined up in from of Tom Terrific.

If the Ravens are unable to put pressure on Brady and throw him off his game, the team could be in serious trouble, as their secondary has not played well. The Baltimore pass defense finished the regular season ranked 24th in the league, allowing 248.7 yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns allowed. On a positive note, especially for this matchup, the Ravens totaled 49 sacks this year, the second highest total in team history. Elvis Dumervil led the way with 17 sacks and could be a thorn in Brady’s side. The Ravens are hoping so at least.

Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots’ rushing attack shouldn’t be a major player in this matchup, as they will run into a brick wall of a defense and lack any dynamic runners. Shane Vereen can be an explosive player but only rushed for 391 yards on the season, as the Patriots prefer to use him as a pass catcher. Outside of Vereen, the Patriots will trot out too similar hard charging power backs in veteran LeGarrette Blount and first- year player Jonas Gray. Gray famously burst onto the scene with a 201- yard, 4- touchdown effort against Indianapolis in Week 11 but was benched the following week for being late to a practice and has only gained 80 yards in the four games since his benching. Blount was acquired after he was released by Pittsburgh and has performed well but has only seen one game where he exceeded 13 carries. He was the star of last season’s playoff game throttling the Indianapolis defense, but this will be a much tougher task this week.

Ngata's return from a four-game suspension in time for the wildcard round of the playoffs further strengthened a Ravens front that is as tough as anyone in the running game. Baltimore allowed 88.3 rushing yards per game this season (fourth fewest in the NFL) and hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 27 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Bill Belichick and his staff are famous for looking to exploit the opposing team’s biggest weakness. This isn’t it.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 275 pass yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs., 5 rush yds
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Shane Vereen: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 70 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 90 rec yds, 2 TDs

Prediction: Ravens 31, Patriots 27 ^ Top

Panthers @ Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: A disastrous start to the 2014 season nearly cost Cam Newton and the Panthers a chance to be in the playoffs, but clutch performances down the stretch certainly have to give fantasy owners some shred of confidence heading into what will likely be the toughest matchup the young quarterback faces all season. Nagging injuries likely caused much of the problems that the Panthers passing game suffered through early in the year, especially in the running game. The quarterback, who had been one of the most active runners in the league since being drafted by the Panthers in 2011, exceeded 50 rushing yards just once in the Panthers’ first 12 games while rushing for only two touchdowns over that span. But in his final three starts, Newton turned it on, rushing for a touchdown and exceeding that 50-yard mark on the ground in each contest. There’s little question that the loss of Steve Smith in the off-season did a number on the Panthers’ offense, but tight end Greg Olsen enjoyed the best season of his professional career, setting career-best marks in receptions (84) and yards (1,008) while rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin stepped up to lead the team with nine touchdown receptions while also cracking the 1,000 yard mark himself. Both Olsen and Benjamin were quiet on Wild Card weekend as the duo made a total of just seven catches for 70 yards and no scores, but Newton was able to spread the ball to a number of targets to remain fantasy relevant himself with a 198-yard, two-touchdown and one interception day through the air.

If the Panthers thought the Cardinals defense was a tough nut to crack, they’ll be in for a rude awakening here in the divisional round when they head to Seattle to play against the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Seahawks allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including an unbelievable stretch to end the season where they allowed a total of just two passing touchdowns over their final seven games. Also during that stretch, the Seahawks conceded an average of just 153 passing yards per game. Needless to say, this defense has kicked it into gear as they head into their first playoff game and after having a week to rest, this unit could be better than ever. Expect cornerback Richard Sherman to blanket Kelvin Benjamin all day, effectively taking away the young receiver from the Panthers passing game. It will have to be Olsen who steps up in this contest if the Panthers are to have any hope of passing the ball. Seattle has been incredible against the pass all year, but their 11 receiving touchdowns given up to opposing tight ends this season placed them tied for third-worst in the league.

Running Game Thoughts: Don’t look now, but the resurrection of Jonathan Stewart’s career might just be happening before our very eyes. The once-forgotten former fantasy star has battled a number of injuries over the past few seasons and really hasn’t looked great even when he’s been healthy, but there is no question that his recent performances should be giving fantasy owners something to think about here in the playoffs and as we look forward to next season. Prior to Week 13, Stewart has not rushed for more than 80 yards in a game since Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season. Yes, it’s been that long. But over his past six contests, Stewart has not only exceeded 80 rushing yards four times, but he has averaged almost 100 yards per game over that stretch. His usage in the passing game remains minimal, but a healthy Stewart has reminded us that there is still something left in the tank and if the Panthers are going to have any sort of chance of going into Seattle and getting a win, they’re going to need to put a lot of trust in their running back.

With Seattle being the top pass defense in the league, the “soft” spot, if you can call it that, is their run defense. Of course, that’s not to say this is a favorable matchup as the Seahawks have crunched down on opposing running backs as we head into the playoffs. The unit has conceded just one rushing touchdown since Week 12 and have held opposing teams’ running backs to an average of just over 50 yards per game during that stretch. It doesn’t come much tougher than this as far as matchups go, but Stewart’s recent hot streak and Carolina’s willingness to give him carries (20.6 carries per game over his past five games) does make him one of Carolina’s best weapons in this game, at least when it comes to slowing down the talented Seattle pass rush. The Panthers did allow DeAngelo Williams back onto the field for the first time since Week 13, but don’t expect him to be much of a factor in this contest. It will be Stewart as the primary ball carrier with the duo of Williams and Fozzy Whittaker serving in relief roles.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 165 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 50 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 50 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s incredible to think that there was a quarterback who finished the season as a top three player at the position, yet did not have a single wide receiver finish in the top 40 at his position, but that’s exactly what happened for Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson in 2014. The young passer showed incredible poise once again this season, leading his team to the top seed in the NFC yet again. His 3,475 passing yards and 20 touchdowns don’t sound like the work of a top fantasy quarterback, but the fact that he threw just seven interceptions on the season certainly helped get him there. Most importantly, however, was the versatility that Wilson showed. He led all quarterbacks with a ridiculous 849 rushing yards -- over 200 more than any other QB -- and he also led all quarterbacks with six rushing touchdowns. In fact, Wilson’s rushing yardage was so good that he would’ve been 16th at running back, had he been playing that position. These numbers helped make Wilson one of the most consistently high-end quarterbacks in the league. Even on days when he struggled to pass the ball, his rushing totals were typically good enough to make him a viable starter. Unfortunately, as mentioned above, Wilson’s receivers did not enjoy anywhere near that kind of consistency. The team shipped off top wide receiver Percy Harvin to the Jets midway through the season. Doug Baldwin stepped up and became the team’s de facto WR1 from that point on, as he would lead the team with 66 receptions for 825 yards. That didn’t translate to great fantasy numbers, however, as he was only able to catch three touchdowns on the year. Wilson spread the ball out to a wide number of targets this season, throwing touchdown passes to 10 different receivers.

Carolina finished about as middle-of-the-road as any team can be on defense as they checked in at 16th in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks this season. The unit struggled early in the year, giving up seven games of 15-or-more fantasy points (standard scoring) to the position over their first ten games. They did tighten up down the stretch as they held all six quarterbacks that they played against down the stretch to fewer than 15 fantasy points. That included two games against Matt Ryan and a game against Drew Brees. Wilson himself was held in check most of the day when he was matched up against the Panthers back in Week 8. In that contest, he threw for just 199 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Perhaps most importantly for Panthers fans, he was held to just 35 yards on the ground. The Carolina defense has only gotten better as the season has progressed, so look for a low-scoring contest here and while Wilson remains a good bet to produce decent enough fantasy numbers, his receivers are practically untouchable this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Another year in a Seahawks jersey, another season of monster fantasy numbers. It’s almost becoming boring at this point to see the consistency that Marshawn Lynch has given to the Seattle offense. If there has ever been a definition of a “work horse running back,” it’s certainly Lynch, who has touched the ball over 1,300 times over the past four seasons. There hasn’t been a more consistent back in the league over that stretch and with the numbers he has produced, it’s really no surprise why the Seahawks continue to feed him the rock every week. Lynch has been banged up this season and has looked the part at times down the stretch, but the team actually gave him a bit of a break over the final two weeks of the regular season. He still produced solid numbers in those games, however, as he rushed for 113 yards and two scores on just 10 carries against the Cardinals in Week 16 before rushing for 60 yards and a score on 14 carries against the Rams in Week 17. Now with a full week of rest under his belt, Lynch appears to be one of the most exciting fantasy options as we head into the divisional round of the playoffs.

Lynch will be up against a Carolina defense that struggled against the run early in the season, but really turned up when it counted. The Panthers gave up an average of 21.2 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to opposing running backs over their first 10 games of the season, but held strong over their final six games, giving up just 8.0 points per game to the position and zero rushing touchdowns. Lynch himself was held in check when these teams played earlier this season as he rushed for just 62 yards and no touchdowns, one of his worst fantasy performances of the season. Still, despite Carolina’s improved play and the struggles he had against them, Lynch remains one of the best fantasy options here in the divisional round. There are few other backs who have the potential to touch the ball 20 times and that alone makes him a threat to produce big numbers even in a tough matchup.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 45 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 50 rec yds

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Panthers 16 ^ Top

Cowboys at Packers - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Dallas arrives at Lambeau Field in the playoffs for the first time since The Ice Bowl and the 1966 postseason. The Cowboys are undefeated on the road and will test that perfect record in the outdoors where the high for Sunday is expected to be no more than 20 degrees. In three sub-freezing playoff games, Romo has been one of the worst quarterbacks with at least that many starts, but the Dallas team of 2014 barely resembles the teams of the past on which Romo struggled so mightily. This year the Cowboys have put forth one of the most balanced offenses in the league, and despite having a mediocre yardage total through the air, there are just three teams who have thrown for more touchdowns than Dallas. Nearly half of the team’s scores have been caught by WR Dez Bryant, and the resurgence of WR Terrance Williams gives the Cowboys two incredible weapons on the outside in addition to the reliable TE Jason Witten in the middle of the field. As long as the wind is relatively calm, as expected, Romo and the receiving corps will be an ever-present threat to the endzone.

History may be on the side of the Cowboys, who have won five straight playoff games over Green Bay, though not their contest in the 1966 season. Their unblemished road record will be put to the test against a Packers team that is undefeated at home. Just one other game in the Super Bowl area has featured such a matchup, with the undefeated road team beating the undefeated home team on their way to an eventual Championship. If Green Bay is going to win this game they’re going to need their defense to keep their opponent’s massive receivers out of the endzone. Though they rank in the top ten in yards allowed, the Packers are below average for touchdowns surrendered through the air; only two remaining playoff teams have given up more passing scores. With respect to pressure, Green Bay ranks in the top ten for both of interceptions forced and sacks recorded, making them one of only four teams who excel in both areas. The Cowboys have been better than most this year in protecting their quarterback and giving him time to make good decisions, but if the offensive line is unable to protect Romo, that could be the advantage the Packers need to make a statement on defense.

Running Game Thoughts: Though he is technically still nursing an injury, RB DeMarco Murray (hand) shows no signs of being limited when its game time. Many thought he was rushed back into action too soon, but with no fumbles or any apparent reduction in workload, the league’s leader in rushing yards and scores has been as reliable as possible for his fantasy owners this season. Though other ball carriers are rarely involved in the running game, Dallas still has a top five rushing attack in every major category. The expected cold temperatures figure to play into the hands of the ground game, and behind the most heralded offensive line of the season Murray could be in line for yet another workhorse performance. The success of Dallas has rested squarely with their ability to run the ball, and using that to keep the defense on balance so that Romo can exploit them through the air. In certain contests Murray and the o-line have been so dominant that the aerial attack seemed overpowered by the ground game, but only once this year what the passing game held out of the endzone. As long as Romo is under center the defense must respect his ability to involve the proven pass catchers he has at his disposal, and that in turn provides Murray with additional running lanes and rushing opportunities.

Against a top tier run defense last week Murray still managed to gain 97 yards from scrimmage and find the endzone, and this weekend the Packers figure to be significantly less formidable than the previous opponent. For the season Green Bay has been a bottom ten run defense, but since LB Clay Matthews moved from outside to inside they have been significantly better, allowing 67 fewer rushing yards per game on average. Part of the defensive success of the team has come from their offense’s productivity, which forces opponents into more of a passing attack, thus leaving the ground game to be relatively unchallenged. In their four losses this season, Green Bay allowed no fewer than 113 rushing yards in any contest with an average of 157 conceded and better than a rushing score allowed per game. The chess match between the Dallas offense demanding balance and the Packers attack encouraging a shootout will go a long way to dictating the outcome of the game; the more the Cowboys are able to run the worse it should be for the Green Bay defense.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 265 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
DeMarco Murray: 70 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Joseph Randle: 5 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The last time Green Bay hosted the Cowboys in a playoff game, a legendary Packers quarterback scored in the final minute of The Ice Bowl and brought the team one step closer to a championship season. Building a legend of his own, QB Aaron Rodgers (calf) is one ring short of tying that historic great for Super Bowl wins. Even though the injury caused him to miss a portion of Week 17, Rodgers had last week to rest and has been taking it easy this week; he says he’ll go Sunday, but wouldn’t comment on the extent to which he will or won’t be limited. Expectations are that Rodgers will be close to 100%, but in below-freezing temperature his muscles may have other plans. Opening their playoff campaign at home bodes well for the Packers, who haven’t lost there all season. It’s also great for their quarterback, who hasn’t thrown an interception at home in his last 477 pass attempts. Rodgers has played 16 games in Green Bay since his last interception, throwing 38 touchdowns in that time. In addition to the man under center, the Packers boast two fantasy receivers in the top seven for their position. Both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have at least 90 receptions, 1275 yards, and 12 scores on the year; each has gained 71 first downs through the air. In the beginning of the year Nelson was more productive, partially at the expense of Cobb, but they each contributed approximately equally starting at the sixth game of the year. Heading into the playoffs with an extra week of rest, both of the mercurial pass catchers are poised to go off in a big way.

Due largely to Rodgers and his ability to protect the ball, Green Bay is tied for the fewest giveways this season and lead the league in turnover margin. For the year, the Cowboys are 2-4 when losing the turnover battle and are a perfect 11-0 otherwise. Since Rodgers isn’t likely to commit many, if any, interceptions, Dallas will be hard pressed to come out on the right side of the turnover tally. With more passing yards and scores, fewer interceptions, and an equal number of sacks allowed, the Packers are a more potent version of the passing attack which Dallas will bring to the contest. Thankfully for the visitors, their ability to keep teams out of the endzone is nearly as good as their own ability to score; only five teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Cowboys. Their ability to pressure the quarterback, however, is one of the worst. Rodgers is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL, ranking in the top ten for completion percentage and having the second best mark for yards gained per attempt. When he’s pressured he is even better comparatively, with more touchdowns thrown from outside of the pocket over the past five seasons than anyone else in the league. As long as his calf doesn’t limit his abilities as a scrambler or in evading pressure, Dallas is expected to have an incredibly difficult time affecting Rodgers at the line of scrimmage.

Running Game Thoughts: Much like their opponent, the Packers have benefited greatly from their ability to run the ball and from RB Eddie Lacy being involved in the passing game both as a blocker and as a productive receiver. Lacy finished the season with nine straight games of 100 or more yards gained from scrimmage, the second longest stretch over the last two seasons. Despite a disappointing start to the year, he finished the as the sixth ranked fantasy ball carrier, proving he was worthy of his draft position and rewarding those owners who refused to give up on him. The Packers rushing attack ranks just outside the top ten, and with contributions from Lacy, Rodgers, and backup RB James Starks, the team averages nearly 120 yards per game on the ground. Lacy accounts for far and away the most in each category and is second to only Rodgers in yards gained per rush. The balance achieved between the power of Lacy as a runner and the precision of Rodgers as a passer has given Green Bay the highest scoring offense in the league.

Forcing the Packers to be one-dimensional is a scary proposition, but if Dallas can somehow find a way to limit Rodgers through the air they may be willing to take their chances against Lacy and Starks on the ground. This scenario is altogether unlikely, barring unexpected extreme weather, as the Cowboys are poor against the pass and just marginally better against the run. They rank in the top quarter for yards allowed per game and on a per carry basis they’re still at, or slightly better than, average for the league. In the redzone is where Dallas is weakest, with the second most rushing scores allowed this season despite facing more rushing attempts than just five teams. The seemingly-impressive rankings are almost exclusively due to the reduced number of runs the defense has been asked to stop, mostly due to the propensity for their offense to score points and force opponents into more of a passing attack. Green Bay is best when Rodgers is throwing the ball, and when he’s throwing at home they’re almost unstoppable. The best chance for the Cowboys is to try to force the Packers into running the ball, and hopefully finding a way to prevent the explosive aerial attack from converting too many big plays.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 260 pass yds, 25 rush yds, 3 TDs
Eddie Lacy: 90 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
James Starks: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Richard Rodgers: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Packers 30 ^ Top

Colts at Broncos - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck threw for 376 yards and one touchdown last week in the Colts’ win over the Bengals. He threw 44 passes, 26 of which went to either T.Y. Hilton or Daniel Herron, with no other Colt getting more than three targets. If history is any indicator, Luck will be spreading the ball around more this week against the Broncos. When Indy and Denver met up in Week 1, Luck (who threw for 370 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in the game) targeted Reggie Wayne 13 times and the tight end duo of Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen a combined total of 13 times. Denver had some difficulty covering tight ends during the season, so fantasy owners should expect another heavy dose of Fleener and Allen this week, though Hilton should still be a factor against the Broncos.

Denver was ninth in the league against the pass during the regular season but 25th in passing scores surrendered. They allowed the ninth-most fantasy points in the NFL to quarterbacks and the seventh-most to tight ends, but only one squad gave up fewer fantasy points to wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson was suffering from an illness last week and though he suited up against the Bengals, failed to touch the ball. Meanwhile, Daniel Herron had 56 yards and a score on the ground to go with 85 receiving yards and Zurlon Tipton added another 40 rushing yards. Herron will again be the Colts runner that fantasy owners will want to have on their roster and he should continue to be productive against Denver.

The Broncos had the NFL’s second-best rush defense during the regular season and were eighth in rushing touchdowns given up. They also allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season despite permitting the third-most receiving yards and third-most receiving scores in the league to backs.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 345 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Dan Herron: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Zurlon Tipton: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 50 rec yds
Hakeem Nicks: 35 rec yds
Donte Moncrief: 30 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Allen: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning failed to throw a touchdown pass in his team’s Week 17 win over the Raiders, which was only the second time all season he didn’t throw a score. The other time was three weeks earlier against the Bills, a game played on December 7. That date is significant because it was Denver’s first contest of that month, with the Raiders game being their last of the month. In the two games in between, Manning threw just three scoring passes, making his three touchdown throws in December equal to or less than the number of scores he tossed in eight different games during the season. He also tossed six interceptions during that time, a downward trend that is disconcerting. He does have excellent weapons, though the one fantasy owners will want on their roster is Demaryius Thomas, who ended the season with 115 or more receiving yards in three straight games. Tight end Julius Thomas is intriguing, and he had over 100 yards and three scores in Week 1 against the Colts, but has dealt with an ankle injury for some time now and hasn’t scored since early November, making him a risky play despite a good match-up versus Indy.

An average to slightly above average team against the pass during the regular season, the Colts didn’t have a whole lot of trouble with the A.J. Green-less, Andy Dalton-led passing game of the Bengals last week. Indy also stayed true to form by holding down Cincinnati’s wideouts, but this week will be a much stiffer challenge.

Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson played in Week 1 against the Colts, but registered just four carries playing behind Montee Ball. Since then, Anderson has become the team’s lead back and has been of immense help to fantasy owners. Over Denver’s last eight games, he had 80+ rushing yards six times and scored a total of 10 touchdowns. Despite Ronnie Hillman’s return, Anderson should still be the guy fantasy owners count on against the Colts.

Indianapolis was a below average unit against the run during the regular season, but were solid against the Bengals last week, a task made easier with the Colts not having to worry about A.J. Green. While Cincinnati did average 5.2 yards per carry on 21 total carries, the team’s two main backs, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, managed only 53 yards on 16 carries (3.3 YPC).

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 320 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
C.J. Anderson: 80 rush yds, 2 TD, 25 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 55 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 34, Colts 31 ^ Top