| Dealing With The Deadline
 11/12/09
 
 Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy 
              owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes 
              hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat 
              man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against 
              a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense 
              brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes 
              the name of the game for the opposing team.
 In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure 
                to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to 
                the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a 
                conclusion about a player too quickly is much like trying to blitz 
                Peyton Manning – dangerous and painful. However, coming 
                to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than 
                your opponents is considered foresight. Fantasy owners can be 
                a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak 
                can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to 
                make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the 
                NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing 
                scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become 
                a smart blitzer, so to speak. As a writer, you become accustomed to deadlines. In fact, the ability 
              to meet them can often determine whether or not there will be another 
              article left to write. After a while, a writer can actually grow 
              to love deadlines, almost as if it serves as some artificial inspiration 
              or fills some sadistic need to see if we can use the clock as some 
              kind of motivation to pull one more quality work of art out of our 
              fingertips.
 As a fantasy football owner, I absolutely despise deadlines. 
                I despise the deadline which forces me to set my lineup five minutes 
                before the start of the early games on Sunday, in large part because 
                the joy of playing the right players each week doesn't come close 
                to matching the dread that comes with benching a player who decides 
                to boost your league-leading bench points total (isn't that right, 
                Greg Olsen?). But, for me, the saddest deadline as a fantasy owner comes once 
                a year - my leagues' trade deadline. When the trade deadline has 
                past, no longer does an owner have the ability to play the "market". 
                Instead, we are left with only hope - hope that the waiver wire 
                will provide our teams with the key component that our teams are 
                missing (Ladell Betts, 2006; Ryan Grant, 2007 come to mind) in 
                order to make that late push to lock up a playoff spot and, ultimately, 
                secure a shot at the league title. While the deadline can be stressful for both the writer and the 
                fantasy owner, the ability to deal with the deadline can be particularly 
                rewarding for the writer and/or owner who knows how to use it 
                to their advantage. For the writer, the energy surge you get as 
                time winds down can almost be exhilarating and can sometimes help 
                you focus all your creative energy into one application. The reward 
                is typically the confidence that comes from pounding out an article 
                with time to spare that combines creativity with coherency. For the fantasy owner, the rush can almost provide the same kind 
                of energy and the reward can come in the form of using the trade 
                deadline to squeeze your fellow panicky owner into adding one 
                more player in a trade that he/she doesn't want to part with - 
                but has to - in order to secure the player that he/she must have. 
                The reward can also be as simple as looking at your team as the 
                deadline passes and realizing that you have done everything in 
                your power to produce a winner. Just like a writer, a fantasy owner's ability to thrive at the 
                deadline can determine whether or not the holidays will be merry 
                in late December or something much less joyful. Granted, the loss 
                of one's writing job is more tragic than the downfall of one's 
                fantasy team, but doesn't the world just seem a little brighter 
                around the holidays when you know that all the eating and shopping 
                will be somewhat offset with a hefty league prize? It is with that in mind that I will divert a bit from my usual 
                workload/target analysis. Instead, this week I will provide my 
                rest-of-the-season rankings in an effort to give you some sense 
                of value as you wrap up your trade talks for the year.
 In what will be a reoccurring theme throughout this piece, take 
                advantage of New Orleans. I absolutely have no qualms with the 
                Saints' run towards 16-0. Whether or not they get there is debatable, 
                but there is no denying their remaining schedule is about as fantasy-friendly 
                as they come. In three upcoming games vs. the Rams and Bucs (twice, 
                including Week 16), Brees could legitimately throw for around 
                10-12 TD passes. Similarly, Brady gets the edge over Manning for 
                a slightly easier remaining schedule as well. Fantasy's current #1 QB (Rodgers) headlines the "injury 
                risk QBs" and drops all the way down to fourth because the 
                chances he will continue his stellar play lessen each week he 
                incurs five more sacks. Warner gets the nod over Schaub because 
                he has served his bye already and has a very nice fantasy playoff 
                schedule while Schaub has yet to play more than 11 games in a 
                single season as a Texan. I will continue to hold his recent injury 
                past against him until he actually makes it through an entire 
                16-game schedule. Favre will spend most of the second half of the season playing 
                under a roof and against eight-man fronts, so he doesn’t 
                figure to slow down anytime soon. Pittsburgh will likely be in 
                some cold-weather, windy games in December, so he falls a bit 
                because his yardage totals will probably take a hit. The risk 
                of running with Big Ben as your #1 QB late in the season is that 
                he'll post a low-yardage, 1-2 TD game because the weather and 
                the Steelers' dominant defense will often lead to a run-heavy 
                attack and/or short fields. The way Chicago's defense is playing right now, Cutler may have 
                little choice but to continue airing it out; as luck would have 
                it, the Bears' remaining schedule doesn't exactly lend itself 
                to rushing success either. Rivers is probably a top-five fantasy 
                QB and needs to start almost regardless of the matchup, but five 
                of his remaining seven games (for fantasy purposes) are against 
                defenses that aren't too shabby at defending the pass. He's a 
                pretty good bet for at least two TDs per game most weeks, but 
                his yardage totals may be erratic. After the Steelers in Week 10, Palmer and the Bengals should 
                be poised for big things in the passing game, but Cincy has been 
                content with beating opponents on the ground almost regardless 
                of the matchup, so predicting big numbers for Palmer seems a bit 
                foolish. However, his remaining schedule looks easy enough where 
                he should be able to post at least one or two more 3-plus TD games. 
                Conversely, McNabb isn't about to catch a break anytime soon. 
                Because the offense is so pass-heavy and his offense is so loaded 
                with explosive weapons, he'll have his big games in the second 
                half, but he'll probably have a few clunkers in there as well. Much like Philly, Dallas isn't guaranteed much success through 
                the air either. Teams have already started to double Miles Austin 
                and most of the upcoming defenses on the Cowboys' schedule are 
                solid against the pass. Flacco may be the ultimate matchup QB 
                in the second half. He's not likely to have much success vs. the 
                Colts or the Steelers (twice, including Week 16), but he could 
                be in line for huge days vs. the Browns (Week 10), the Lions (Week 
                14) and Bears (Week 15). Hasselbeck's remaining slate of games 
                almost qualifies as ridiculously easy, but the offensive line 
                is enough of a concern that I wouldn't count on him making it 
                through the rest of the season unscathed. Second-Half Surprise: Alex 
                Smith, 49ers. It's fairly obvious that Niners’ coaching 
                staff must have seen something they liked a few weeks before they 
                decided to pull Shaun Hill halfway through their game vs. the 
                Texans a few weeks ago. In Hill's six starts to open the season, 
                the Niners attempted 32 passes in a game just one time. Since 
                Smith was promoted to the top of the depth chart two games ago, 
                San Fran has attempted at least that many passes in both contests, 
                including the Week 8 vs. the Colts in which the Niners led for 
                most of the game. Perhaps the switch of offensive philosophy has 
                to do more with the quick learning curve of Michael Crabtree, 
                but it does appear San Francisco is much more willing to throw 
                than it was earlier in the season.
 As we set the stage for next season, it appears likely there 
                will be four worthy candidates to go #1 overall in fantasy drafts 
                (Jones-Drew, Peterson, Chris Johnson and Rice). MJD and Peterson 
                are performing almost right in line of what I had predicted for 
                them entering the season (fantasy point-wise), but Johnson has 
                used three out-of-this-world performances to get himself into 
                the good graces of fantasy owners once again. If he continues 
                his 6.7 YPC pace, Johnson will need roughly 19.5 carries per game 
                over the remaining eight contests to become only the sixth player 
                in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark in a single season. 
                As it stands, his current YPC is the highest for a non-QB since 
                Lenny Moore averaged 7.0 YPC for the Baltimore Colts in 1961. 
                Just as impressively, Rice's 92-catch pace would make him just 
                the fifth RB in league history to log that many receptions in 
                a single season (Larry Centers, Eric Metcalf, LaDainian Tomlinson 
                and Johnny Morris are the others). Fantasy-wise, Thomas 
                Jones and Michael 
                Turner have been pretty much the same back in 2009. Going 
                forward, though, I would prefer Jones. While Turner gets to enjoy 
                the overmatched Bills' run defense in Week 16, his road to championship 
                week isn't quite as smooth at Jones'. When you also consider that 
                Jones will contribute more in the passing game than he did in 
                the first half (following the loss of Leon 
                Washington), his value in PPR leagues gets a slight boost. 
                Schedule and contributions in the passing game also give Gore 
                and DeAngelo 
                Williams a slight edge over Turner for the remainder of the 
                season. I love Gore's Week 16 matchup vs. Detroit whereas I still 
                don't like D-Will's shot at huge numbers during the fantasy playoffs 
                despite Carolina's renewed emphasis on the running game (or renewed 
                emphasis on making sure Jake Delhomme doesn’t beat his own team). 
                The presence of Jonathan 
                Stewart keeps Williams fresh, but you just never know what 
                week the Panthers will decide Stewart should vulture Williams' 
                touchdowns. I see Mendenhall and Benson as the same back for fantasy purposes 
                for the remainder of the season. Neither player will set the PPR 
                world on fire but both players will see almost all of their team's 
                carries and have some pretty favorable matchups the rest of the 
                way. As Ronnie 
                Brown continues to make Chad Henne more and more irrelevant, 
                it's become clear that in Miami’s running game, Brown is the Dolphins' 
                Mr. Inside to Ricky 
                Williams' Mr. Outside. Almost all of Brown's 30 carries that 
                are labeled as wide left or wide right are the result of a slow-developing 
                play out of the "Wildcat" whereas most of Williams' 31 outside 
                plays are designed outside runs, such as a toss, sweep or even 
                an option pitch such as the one he scored on in Week 9. While 
                it makes sense from the standpoint that Williams is probably the 
                more explosive RB of the two, it befuddles me that a running offense 
                like Miami's would be that obvious with their attack. (To their 
                credit, they did a better job of switching that up in Week 9.) 
                While I feel I have a fairly discerning eye, I know I am not the 
                only person to pick up on this tendency. Outside blitzes in recent 
                weeks have made Williams less of a factor out of the "Wildcat", 
                which is why I believe the team has started to work rookie QB 
                Pat White into the mix more often. Either way, owners of either 
                Brown or Williams should be able to get some solid production 
                out of their backs over the next three weeks when Miami faces 
                the Bucs, Panthers and Bills in succession. But keep the inside/outside 
                approach in mind when the Fins’ schedule gets a bit more difficult 
                during the fantasy playoffs. Steven Jackson will continue to see his 25 touches/game in the 
                Rams' otherwise useless offense, which will make him a fine low-end 
                RB1 in PPR leagues and top-end RB2 in non-PPR. In a real NFL offense, 
                he'd be a great bet for 15-20 TDs this season, but St. Louis may 
                not give the opportunity to score more than five times in 2009. 
                Much like Brees above, Pierre Thomas has a schedule in which he 
                should be able to produce solid fantasy numbers. It's hard to 
                recall the last time two RBs who have produced such weak rushing 
                totals were still such solid players in fantasy, yet Joseph Addai 
                and Tim Hightower have used their gaudy totals in the passing 
                game to boost their anemic numbers on the ground (neither player 
                is averaging more than 3.6 YPC).  
                  McCoy: Second-half surprise? It's very difficult for me to put Ryan Grant in Matt Forte's 
                neighborhood, but it's becoming apparent that Chicago isn't going 
                to get it done on the ground this season. Forte will probably 
                never be the type of explosive RB who goes over 5.0 YPC, but he 
                isn't a sub-4.0 YPC ball carrier either. If we are to believe 
                his running splits, the problem is on the right side of the offensive 
                line. On plays in which Forte runs up the middle or to the right, 
                he is averaging a dismal 2.9 YPC. On runs to the left, it is a 
                much more respectable 4.4 - this is a problem the Bears will likely 
                have to address in the off-season. Grant gets the nod due to a 
                slightly softer schedule because it could be argued the Bears 
                face only one opponent (the Rams) in which Forte could dominate. 
                The Packers' slate of games isn't much more favorable, but at 
                least Grant has some hope during Weeks 14-16. Second-Half Surprise: LeSean 
                McCoy, Eagles. I'm really going to roll the dice on this one, 
                but Brian Westbrook is dealing with an ankle injury and has been 
                held out of the last two games due to a concussion (which, by 
                the way, is a smart approach by the Eagles' brass). Already known 
                as one of fantasy's most injury-prone RBs, Westbrook may need 
                to miss another couple two-week periods to deal with a future 
                injury if his history continues to rear its ugly head. Philly's 
                remaining schedule doesn't do the team many favors, but McCoy 
                could very well be that second-half darling that every fantasy 
                team wants on their roster as they make their championship push 
                if Westbrook must miss any more games because the Eagles’ 
                offense does a fine job of making their RBs almost matchup-proof 
                due to their heavy use in the passing game.
 
 I'm not going to spend much time with the top seven receivers 
                in either PPR or non-PPR. There is very little separation between 
                these WRs in terms of their fantasy-point potential. Fitzgerald 
                is arguably the most consistent weekly point producer at WR that 
                I can remember since I started playing fantasy football. In PPR 
                and non-PPR, it seems he is always posting at least 12-15 points, 
                which is worth an awful lot when you talk about the inconsistent 
                nature of the WR position. I'm a bigger fan of Marques Colston 
                and Vincent Jackson in non-PPR formats for the simple fact that 
                each has an elite QB in an elite passing offense throwing them 
                the ball, almost regardless of the coverage they are facing on 
                any given play. The next wave of WRs (Sims-Walker, Ochocinco, Ward, White, DeSean 
                Jackson, Austin, Rice, Driver, Hester and Marshall) all have the 
                ability to match the elite WRs above some - if not most - weeks, 
                but have at least one knock against them that keeps them from 
                being Fitzgerald-consistent or Moss-explosive. However, if I have 
                two strong RBs, I'd be more than happy to roll with two WRs from 
                this group. Dwayne 
                Bowe may be able to join the above group if the Chiefs follow 
                through with their plans to run a more up-tempo offense. Calvin 
                Johnson's owners have to be getting impatient but, unless 
                we receive some dooming news about his knee in the near future, 
                he is still the most physically-gifted WR in the league. As long 
                as he stays healthy, his numbers will improve dramatically. His 
                high-target, low-production Week 9 was to be expected after being 
                sidelined for as long as he was. I'll predict it gets a whole 
                lot better in Week 10 when he faces a Vikings' defense minus CB 
                Antoine Winfield. I see the Giants' Smith and Austin as WRs who have hit their 
                apex for the season, but that doesn't mean they won't deliver 
                consistent production for the rest of the season. But just like 
                the Eagles did in Week 9 with Austin, defenses have and will make 
                the necessary changes to make sure 200-yard, 2-TD games won't 
                become the norm. I'm interested to see if Boldin's week off will 
                allow him to reclaim his status as a high-volume pass catcher 
                once again. Part of me believes Kurt Warner only has eyes for 
                Fitzgerald at this point, even if his inability to throw the ball 
                downfield favors a run-after-catch wideout like Boldin. The high ranking of Crabtree figures to raise an eyebrow or two, 
                but the Niners are passing the ball much more effectively than 
                they were prior to Alex Smith being named the starting QB. Vernon 
                Davis has benefited the most, but Crabtree has completely blown 
                away his critics (and even his coaching staff) with his ability 
                to step right in and produce. Two of his next three games (Chicago 
                and Jacksonville) figure to be games in which the rookie should 
                light it up, something that can't be said about most of the players 
                ranked below him. Second-Half Surprises: Robert 
                Meachem, Saints AND Jacoby 
                Jones, Texans. Fantasy leaguers have been teased by Meachem’s 
                talent for so long, it almost seems ridiculous he is only in his 
                third year and just turned 25 in September. But just as Chris 
                Henry's injury in Cincinnati frees up Andre Caldwell and Laveranues 
                Coles for more snaps (and possible fantasy production), Lance 
                Moore's supposed high ankle sprain will allow Devery 
                Henderson and Meachem to contribute more. We have a pretty 
                good idea of what Henderson is all about, but Meachem has provided 
                us some recent glimpses of his tremendous potential. In Week 9, 
                he saw a career-high six targets and made them count. No one is 
                overtaking Colston as Drew Brees' #1 target, but I wouldn't be 
                totally surprised if Meachem is ready to assert himself as a viable 
                option behind Colston, Jeremy 
                Shockey and Reggie 
                Bush in the passing game. Three games against the Rams and 
                Bucs (twice) should give Meachem a handful of opportunities to 
                take advantage of what could be a lengthy absence for Moore. Jones has already flirted with some degree of fantasy relevance 
                by serving as a Meachem- or Henderson-like big-play influence 
                for the Texans prior to Owen Daniels’ injury. I believe 
                Week 9 was only the tip of the iceberg as it relates to Jones’ 
                ability to be more than just a deep threat. He will stand clearly 
                behind Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter in the pecking order for 
                targets among Houston WRs, but the nice thing about big-play WRs 
                like Jones is the fact they don’t require a lot of catches 
                to do a lot of damage. The Texans have a pretty favorable schedule 
                for the rest of the season, so you could do a lot worse in deeper 
                leagues than to make a play for Jones.
 With Owen 
                Daniels out for the season, Dallas 
                Clark and Vernon 
                Davis have emerged as the top options at the TE position. 
                At the rate both players are being targeted, don't expect their 
                production to slow down anytime soon. The next 5-6 TEs (Celek, 
                Gates, Gonzalez, Shockey, Heath Miller and Witten) are all in 
                the same neighborhood and could realistically be traded for each 
                other right now, which is a shocking revelation from what we "knew" 
                about 4-5 weeks ago. After that, it appears that Olsen and Shiancoe 
                are their individual QB's favorite target when they get in scoring 
                range. If Finley can get healthy anytime soon, I like him to break into 
                the second class of TEs above, but it seems that his recovery 
                time from a sprained knee could be measured with a sundial considering 
                he was a game-time decision two weeks ago. According to the Packers' 
                TE, he's ready to go, but the team is being overly cautious. Keller 
                has seen double-digit targets in two of his last three games, 
                so he could also move a few steps up over the next couple of weeks. 
                Winslow and Heap are both players who could be top-12 TEs on different 
                teams, but Winslow's fantasy potential for 2009 is going to be 
                rocky with rookie Josh Freeman throwing the ball. Ray Rice is 
                getting so much work now in the short passing game that Heap has 
                been rendered somewhat ineffective after a strong start to the 
                season. If Chris 
                Cooley could be ruled out for the season, Fred 
                Davis would be the only other player besides Brandon 
                Pettigrew who could move up substantially between now and 
                Week 16. Second-Half Surprise: Jermichael 
                Finley, Packers. The stage is set perfectly for him, so long 
                as he gets back on the field soon. Aaron Rodgers trusts him, Green 
                Bay has a multitude of receiving threats that should leave the 
                middle of the field open and the schedule doesn't look all that 
                menacing, at least for his ability to produce solid stat lines. 
                If healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if his second-half production 
                meets or exceeds that of the bigger TE names like Gates or Witten.
 
                 
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                              | Defense/Special 
                                Teams |   
                              | Rk | Player |   
                              | 1 | Saints DST |   
                              | 2 | Eagles DST |   
                              | 3 | Steelers DST |   
                              | 4 | Cowboys DST |   
                              | 5 | Vikings DST |   
                              | 6 | Chargers DST |   
                              | 7 | Jets DST |   
                              | 8 | Broncos DST |   
                              | 9 | Bengals DST |   
                              | 10 | Patriots DST |   
                              | 11 | Giants DST |   
                              | 12 | Cardinals DST |   
                              | 13 | Colts DST |   
                              | 14 | Titans DST |   
                              | 15 | Ravens DST |  |  |  There's seems to be a general belief that the Saints' defense 
                cannot continue their high-scoring pace. As an owner of their 
                defense in all three of my money leagues, believe me when I say 
                I expect more of the same. At least four of their games (Rams, 
                Week 10; Bucs, Week 11; Redskins, Week 13; and Bucs, Week 16) 
                are against offenses that either can't sustain offense or have 
                a rookie QB under center. For a high-scoring team whose defense 
                has obviously made it a point of turning over its opponents, more 
                defensive touchdowns and big plays should be in the offing. In 
                fantasy, it isn't always the best real defense that wins; it is 
                often the defense that makes the most happen that prevails. Quite 
                often, the “most” happens against the weakest opponents. Like the Saints, the Eagles, Cowboys and Steelers all blitz with 
                such effectiveness that each unit should be worth starting on 
                a weekly basis from here on out, even though their schedules suggest 
                that it won't all be smooth sailing. The Vikings should rejoin 
                the elite defenses once they get Winfield back while the Bengals 
                could benefit from a Saints-like stretch after Week 10's showdown 
                vs. Pittsburgh. It appears to me that Denver is an elite defense when DC Mike 
                Nolan can match up his personnel with the offense's down-by-down 
                substitutions. But over the past two weeks, Baltimore and Pittsburgh 
                have utilized an up-tempo attack that has, at times, completely 
                left Denver dazed and confused. Fortunately for the Broncos, not 
                a lot of their remaining opponents have the offensive structure 
                and/or personnel in place to run the no-huddle as effectively 
                as the Ravens and Steelers did. On a related but slightly different topic, here are some interesting 
                nuggets if you study the stats like I do: In the two full games 
                Saints DT Sedrick Ellis has missed, New Orleans has allowed 343 
                rushing yards (compared to 417 yards in the five full games he 
                played before his knee injury). Similarly, since the Titans returned CB Cortland 
                Finnegan to the lineup, Tennessee has permitted a total of 
                363 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and five interceptions 
                in two contests. In the three full games he missed, the Titans 
                surrendered 1,040 yards, 12 passing TDs and one interception. 
                Believe me when I tell you the Titans' revival has much more to 
                do with the defense (and the new conservative offensive gameplan 
                that complements the defense) than it does Vince Young. Although 
                Young is certainly doing his part, I think Kerry Collins would 
                have fared just as well over the last two weeks. Especially in light of Veterans’ Day, I’d like 
                to conclude this edition of the Blitz by thanking all military 
                personnel – past, present and future – for the work 
                that you do and the freedoms that each of you allow us to enjoy. 
                It is safe to say that however many times we thank our veterans 
                for all they do, it still isn’t enough. It takes a truly 
                special person to be willing to make the ultimate sacrifice for 
                his or her country. Your work is greatly appreciated! 
  e-mail me with any questions/comments.
 
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