So, who is taking two steps forward and one step (at least) back?

Mariota: Fantasy owners searching for this year's Blake Bortles should look to the Titans' signal caller.

QUARTERBACKS:

Springing forward: Marcus Mariota, TEN

Week 13 of last season was a good glimpse into what the future may look like for second-year quarterback, Marcus Mariota. Mariota ran for 112 yards as the Titans allowed him for the first time all season to make plays with his legs. He also threw for three touchdowns, which marked the fourth time he tossed three or more scores in a game. The Titans acquired DeMarco Murray in the off-season and also drafted Derrick Henry, so it could be assumed a run-first and run-often game plan is in the works. The problem with that theory is you need to be in competitive football games in order to run the ball a lot. The Titans offer little on the defensive side of the ball, so assuming they will be in such scenarios often is fallacy at best.

Enter Mariota who can score fantasy points playing from behind in bunches ala Blake Bortles in 2015. Although it’s true that Mariota doesn’t have an elite receiving corps, he does have an emergent threat in Dorial Green-Beckham to go along with his security blanket from last season, Delanie Walker (94 receptions). Second-year quarterbacks always enter into their sophomore seasons with more awareness of what’s expected of them…and usually that entry includes a longer leash from coaches. Mariota is set to become a top-12 choice at quarterback and thus a borderline fantasy starter. His arrow is definitely pointing up.

Falling back: Carson Palmer, ARI

Don’t take this lack of endorsement for Palmer as a sign that he’s going to flop this season as a real-world NFL quarterback or even as a fantasy option. But, he’s not likely to repeat last year’s numbers based on several key factors. One, David Johnson has emerged as the Cardinals’ best weapon. Johnson showed during the second half of last season that he has special/elite level talent and Arizona will no doubt seek to build the offense around his skill set. Second, Palmer’s TD totals from last season (35) represented a career high and were equal to what he had done in the previous two seasons combined. Palmer turns 37 this season and while he still has the luxury of one of the leagues’ better receiving corps, one of those catchers is an aging Larry Fitzgerald. The tight end position is void of substance which leaves Fitzgerald to man underneath routes while John Brown and Michael Floyd try to stretch the field. They’ll do that effectively no doubt, but with Arizona’s defense, the Cardinals will spend a lot of employing a conservative approach after halftime, chewing up clock late in games. Statistically, we’ll likely call Palmer’s 2015 season his “career year”. I’m high on the Cardinals in 2016; but logic suggests Palmer will regress.

RUNNING BACKS:

Springing forward: Mark Ingram, NO

Initially, Ingram was considered a disappointment in fantasy football after winning the Heisman Trophy his final year of college. He averaged less than 4 yards per carry his first two seasons in the NFL and was not involved in the Saints’ passing game. Beyond the first two years, things improved in terms of yards-per-carry and overall production, but Ingram has missed 18 games in his five-year career and has never topped 1,000 rushing yards for a season nor scored double-digit touchdowns. So, despite an improved fantasy reputation, Ingram has been nothing more than a solid, but unspectacular RB2 even during his best moments.

That changes this season. Ingram finally has the backfield to himself and could see extended time on third downs as his reception totals exploded in 2015 to 50 in just 12 games. He’s only logged 748 carries in his career to date; a reasonably low number compared to another sixth-year running back who has amassed well north of 1,000 attempts (DeMarco Murray - 1128). Ingram will be a wise investment in 2016 as everything suggests he’s ready to vault into the top ten at his position, with health being the biggest concern for fantasy owners. Tim Hightower is a great story, but hardly a threat to Ingram and there’s no guarantee C.J. Spiller will even make the team.

Falling back: Chris Ivory, JAX

In this day and age, nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs as a running back will make you a top ten performer at the position. Those were Ivory’s totals last season, but instead of getting an opportunity to build upon his success in New York, Ivory is now a Jaguar and shares a backfield with second-year running back T.J. Yeldon. The Jags are a pass-happy, play from behind sort of team and despite catching 30 passes last season, that’s never been Ivory’s game. It would be easy to examine Ivory’s 2015 numbers and assume something similar is possible, but he appears to back in a fantasy no-man’s-land similar to his time in New Orleans. Ivory remains a talented running back and will be an asset to the Jaguars in many ways including in short-yardage and goaline work but it’s difficult to envision him receiving the same volume that made him a fantasy asset last season.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Springing forward: Mike Evans, TB

As a high-profile member of the tremendous wide receiver class of 2014, Evans was supposed to take another step forward last year as a sophomore and become one of the best half-dozen wide receivers in the league. In some ways he did, adding six receptions and 157 receiving yards to his 2014 total. However, he also recorded nine fewer touchdowns (12-to-3) and was among the league leaders in drops (11). So, what will become the anomaly moving forward? Based on Evans’ size, the developing chemistry with QB Jameis Winston, and the propensity for red zone proficiency in his rookie season, I am willing to bet on his 3 TDs from last season being the anomaly. A reasonable expectation of 8-10 TDs plus a modest bump in yardage totals would move Evans into the top eight at the position and thus worthy of an early-to-mid second round pick in redraft leagues. In Evans third trip around the gridiron, the conditions are right for him to improve upon his low-end WR2 value from last season.

Falling back: Doug Baldwin, SEA

Along with QB Russell Wilson, and Redskins TE Jordan Reed, Baldwin was one of the darlings of the fantasy world last November and December, amassing an incredible 10 TDs between Weeks 12 and 15. Was this the beginning of Baldwin’s residency amongst the game’s truly elite pass catchers? In the prior four seasons in Seattle, Baldwin had averaged less than 4 TDs despite missing only two games. His spike in production had a lot to do with injuries to Jimmy Graham and Marshawn Lynch and while Graham remains a longshot to open the season with a clean bill of health, Baldwin will face competition for targets from rising star Tyler Lockett as well as veterans Jermaine Kearse and Luke Willson. Touchdowns are difficult to predict year-to-year especially for receivers that don’t possess typical size/weight measurements to be a factor in the redzone. Baldwin will likely remain a low-end WR2 which is good, but a far cry from when we last saw him crossing the goaline every time we blinked on his way to a top-ten finish.

TIGHT ENDS:

Springing forward: Coby Fleener, NO

The starting tight end for the New Orleans Saints, whoever he may be, always has a seat at the table when discussing top fantasy tight ends. This we know. However, the best news for Coby Fleener isn’t just his change of scenery in 2016, it’s the fact that Dwayne Allen did not accompany him to the Big Easy. Out from under Allen’s shadow and with Drew Brees throwing him darts, Fleener will look to improve upon his career best reception totals from last year (54) and his best yardage and TD totals (774, 8) from 2014. Ben Watson came from virtually nowhere at age 35 to be a top ten tight end in New Orleans posting the best numbers of his career (74-825-6). Fleener is in his prime and could push for 900 yards and 8-10 TDs in the Saints offense. That’s springing forward by anyone’s definition.

Falling back: Greg Olsen, CAR

Much like Palmer, Olsen’s inclusion on this list is not about a bust expectation. Olsen has been one of football’s most consistent players at his position since becoming a Panther back in 2011. Last year he was thrust into special duty courtesy of a season-ending injury to Kelvin Benjamin in the preseason. Benjamin is returning and as such, Olsen is going to compete for targets in the red zone with a wide receiver very capable of making smaller cornerbacks miserable in their efforts to stop him. Without anyone of significance on the other side of Benjamin, Olsen will still get his targets, red zone or otherwise, but the change in dynamic makes him a top candidate to fall back into the 6-8 range at the position as opposed to remaining in the top three with Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed. Olsen’s not falling apart anytime soon, but falling backwards is a reasonable expectation.