The middle week of the fantasy playoff trifecta has come and gone,
and just like last week, the landscape is littered with heroes,
goats, and everything in between. It’s another edition of
the Buzz, playoff-style…
The bounceback game for Brees (389-4) and
Brandin Cooks (7-186-2) had a huge impact in Week 15.
Second Round Fantasy Playoff
Heroes
Brees and Brandin’s Tidal Wave
in the Desert
It is highly possible that if you own Drew Brees, you were eliminated
from the playoffs last week as Brees continued his mini-slump by
way of a second straight no-touchdown performance. It appears, though,
that you can’t keep a great QB down for three weeks as Brees
shredded a typically tougher Arizona defense Sunday to the tune
of 389 yards and 4 TDs. Two of those scores went to Brandin Cooks,
who nearly reached 200 yards receiving and had by far the best day
of any wide receiver in action. Cooks has been a boom or bust guy
for most of the year, but when he “booms”, he can carry
fantasy teams on his back. Brees is known for that too, and in Week
15, these two stars were firing together on all cylinders. Here’s
hoping you caught at least half the wave. If you had both on your
team, you caught lightning in a bottle. And you’re probably
playing for your league championship next weekend.
Opponent Matters: The Devonta Freeman
Story
In other news from the NFC South, we bring you another case of
how one week’s trash turns into next week’s treasure.
That is not meant to disparage Devonta Freeman, who has had an
excellent season and justified his draft position for the most
part. It simply means that Freeman turned 18 yards from scrimmage
and no touchdowns (Week 14) into 155 yards and 3 touchdowns in
Week 15. How did this happen? Not to over-simplify, but matchups
in fantasy football continue to be bigger in scope than any individual
player (more on that later). Freeman went from facing a stout
Rams run defense to licking his chops against the Swiss cheese
that is San Francisco. The 49ers inability to stop the run has
become laughable, and Freeman took full advantage. As for who
faces the 49ers next, it’s the Rams, so maybe there’s
a pot of gold at the end of Todd Gurley’s rainbow this year.
As if any Gurley owners are still around to tell about it…
He’s a Hero, Yes…But
What Position Does He Play?
And, now we come to the very curious case of Ty Montgomery. Montgomery
is still listed as a WR on most management sites, but Mike McCarthy
has essentially declared him to be a RB. Montgomery averaged over
10 yards per carry vs. Chicago and ended up with 162 yards on
the ground to go with a couple of scores. In the world of flexible
lineups, Montgomery’s position may not matter much, but
his value as a stand-alone RB is huge right now given how thin
the position has become. If Montgomery found his way into your
lineup on Sunday, you’ll remember his presence there for
some time.
Shady, Zeke, and DJ - Sustaining
Excellence
Unlike the Jekyll and Hyde nature of Brees and Freeman, three
RBs just keep producing at a high level without pause. LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 357 yards and 3 TDs on
Sunday, likely leading many a fantasy team to a berth in their
league championship game. David Johnson, meanwhile, has now accounted
for 100-plus yards in EVERY game this season to go along with
averaging more than 1 TD per game. Along with Le’Veon Bell,
these three RBs belong in a “stud” category all their
own. They have re-instituted the running back position as relevant
again, quieting the Zero-RB strategists for now. Maybe times aren’t
changing so much as the top shelf talent at the position has returned.
Steady as She Goes…
Finally, a nod to those “heroes” who didn’t
enjoy explosive performances, but did perform exactly as their
owners hoped they would. At QB, we’ll submit to you Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, and Andrew Luck. At RB, kudos goes to Jordan Howard and Lamar Miller. And, at WR, Jordy Nelson did his usual
work while Jarvis Landry and the returning Alshon Jeffery put
together solid second half performances to give their teams a
boost. All of these players minus Landry and Jeffery have displayed
a recent consistency that makes them at least a “good”
play in whatever matchup they inherit.
Second Round Fantasy Playoff Head-Scratchers
This category is reserved for guys that would have been “heroes”
in Week 15…but very few if anyone probably had them in a starting
lineup. They are as follows:
Matt Moore/Matt Barkley
Aside from Brees, few quarterbacks had better Sundays than the
Matt’s of Miami and Chicago. Barkley's big day came at a price
as he also tossed three interceptions, but unless your league
counts off 3 or more points for INTs, you can probably live with
the 362 yards passing and 2 touchdowns that he produced. Too bad
no one likely had the guts to start Barkley despite his matchup
being a good one. Another QB who took full advantage of a solid
matchup was Matt
Moore in Miami, who tossed as many TDs as any QB for the week.
Moore is a career journeyman, but with the talent Miami has at
WR, he came through in a big way. Kudos to you if you rolled the
dice on him in a pinch.
Tyler Lockett/Ryan Mathews
While few started the Matt’s, some may have started Lockett
and Mathews. If that was the case, you were rewarded and then
some. Lockett was looked to early and often on Thursday night
in Seattle and Mathews was a star with both Darren Sproles and
Wendell Smallwood out of action. When both Lockett and Mathews
are included in the offensive gameplan, both have shown themselves
to be capable of games like this, particularly Mathews. But, both
have brutal matchups in Week 16, so expect Week 15 to be their
time in the spotlight for now. From the dynasty standpoint, though,
Lockett's star is back on the rise.
Second Round Fantasy Playoff Goats
Tom Brady & Aaron Rodgers
It feels wrong to place Brady and Rodgers in this category. After
all, Brady was up against a stingy Broncos defense this past weekend
and Aaron
Rodgers was nursing an injury. But, math is math and if you
started either Brady or Rodgers, you didn't get a single touchdown
pass from your starting QB - not a good thing on a fantasy playoff
weekend. A friend of mine texted me this week asking if he should
bench Brady due to his matchup and I expressed to him that he
should stick with the guy who got him there. And, therein lies
the dilemma during Weeks 14-16. How do you sit a Brady or a Rodgers?
You would have been better off with Matt
Moore or Matt
Barkley, but could that have been predicted...by anyone? Fantasy
football's rules of engagement are truly in the eye of the beholder.
AFC West Flame-Out
A lot of people were likely banking on the Chargers-Raiders game
as a gold mine for elite fantasy production from a number of players.
Tyrell
Williams and Dontrelle
Inman appeared poised to expose a weak Raiders secondary while
Amari
Cooper was slated to get back on track with Derek
Carr trying to keep up with Philip
Rivers. And, Kenneth
Farrow was in lineups everywhere as a sneaky good RB2 with
upside. In the end, Farrow fumbled twice, Cooper caught one pass,
and Tyrell Williams was held to less than 20 yards receiving.
In most scoring formats, in fact, the top overall scorer coming
out of this game was kicker, Sebastian
Janikowski. As we've said before, the forecast sometimes calls
for sunny skies, but rainfall breaks out instead. So it was in
San Diego to the chagrin of many a fantasy players. So it was.
Thursday Night Running Backs
Todd
Gurley was mentioned earlier and we'll include him in this
section along with Seattle RB, Thomas
Rawls. I'm not sure I've ever seen two running backs hit so
much behind the line of scrimmage in a single game. Rawls appeared
several weeks ago to be poised for a high-end playoff impact,
but he's been anything but the last two weeks and shouldn't be
a part of any Week 16 lineups from the Buzz's perspective. Gurley
and Rawls are likely to be included in most of the Busts lists
to come out over the next few weeks as pundits reflect on 2016.
In Week 15, they took on that persona perfectly.
Disappearing “Elite” Wide Receivers
The last two weeks has been dismal for some of fantasy football's
best wide receivers. Among those that have been held to single
digits in scoring (non-PPR) both weeks are: Antonio
Brown, Mike
Evans, Dez
Bryant, Larry
Fitzgerald, and the aforementioned Cooper. A.J.
Green and Julio
Jones have missed both weeks due to injury. Meanwhile, Week’s
14 and 15's top scoring WRs have included the likes of Tyreek
Hill, Taylor
Gabriel, Kenny
Stills, J.J.
Nelson, and Robby
Anderson. Based on that and other things noted this week already,
I would guess there have been some upsets in your league's playoffs.
In fact, I don't have to guess. I know that to be a widespread
reality.
So, what can we look for in Week 16 as owners seek to win championships?
How about more of the same and a few things out of left field.
Be sure to check out all of FFToday's predictive information this
week. As for the Buzz, we'll wrap up next Tuesday with season
awards and analysis. May you arrive at that day as a league champion!
Buzz out.