If you follow the NFL’s pre-season, you know that Week 1 is the
most difficult week to gain perspective from. Nevertheless, it is
the first time we’ve seen players in action in seven months and
as such, it is not to be ignored. Some star players barely saw the
field this weekend but we aren’t looking solely at the stars…we
need sleeper information as well. So, let’s look at both ends of
the spectrum now that the first week of exhibition games is in the
books.
1. Mixon and Cook will Rise up Draft
Boards
It was nice to get to see both Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook play for
the first time in NFL gear and both demonstrated some encouraging
traits from a fantasy perspective. Cook wasn’t a big difference
maker running the ball, but his body of work did include 4 catches
for 30 yards. With Bishop Sankey now out for the season (torn ACL),
Cook will get little to no competition for work on third downs and
with Sam Bradford being known as a check-down quarterback, the possibility
of 60-90 receptions for Cook looks reasonable.
Meanwhile, Mixon showed burst on a 13-yard run and also factored
in the passing game. He has more competition for carries than Cook
does, but he also has teammates who can stretch the field to keep
opposing defenses honest. Bottom line: With Leonard Fournette nursing
an injury and looking fairly pedestrian this past weekend, Mixon
and Cook may end up being safer, more productive rookie options.
Kelvin Benjamin's impressive performance
should help push his average draft position into early Rd
5.
2. It’s All About the Benjamins
It was only one series, but it was against first-team defensive
players and Kelvin Benjamin was magnificent. While not known for
his speed, Benjamin is a huge target and knows how to use that size
to ward off defenders. Last year’s numbers (63-941-7) were
a slight dip from his promising rookie season, but he was also coming
off an injury that cost him the entire 2015 season. The three catches
(one for a TD) on his opening drive vs. Houston should serve as
a wake-up call. He’s being drafted too late (ADP 5.11). He
belongs with players like Davante Adams and Keenan Allen - not DeSean Jackson and Donte Moncrief.
As for the “other” Benjamin, Travis Benjamin showed
he’s still lightning fast hauling in a 74-yard TD vs. Seattle.
Travis is a poor man’s DeSean Jackson to be sure (few receptions,
high YPC), but he’s worth a look late in drafts in non-PPR
leagues.
3. Starting Quarterbacks Don’t Look
Sharp in Early August
Last season, we noted
that Matt
Ryan looked downright awful in his first action in six months.
He went on to win the NFL’s MVP Award. Likewise this season, a couple
veteran quarterbacks threw interceptions right off the bat this
past weekend - namely Matthew
Stafford and Andy
Dalton. Don’t panic. In fact, don’t adjust your rankings at
all. I’m not saying either guy is an ideal starter for your fantasy
team, but Stafford is certainly a borderline starter and a fantastic
backup at worst. Often times, quarterbacks are working with a host
of new receivers in pre-season and it’s not prudent to hold them
accountable for a small sample size of work. If both or other starting
QBs look sluggish in three consecutive weeks of action, we can begin
drawing conclusions.
4. But, Do Pay Attention to This…
I’m talking about fumbles. Samaje Perine put the ball on the
ground in his first ever pre-season game and that’s a no-no
when you’re trying to earn playing time. Other guys who couldn’t
hang on to the pigskin were Ty Montgomery (GB) and Robert Woods
(LAR). Too much is made of every little thing we see during the
pre-season to be sure, but coaches hate fumbles as much as anything.
Perine’s miscue is particularly alarming and while the trend
is to warm up to rookies as draft day approaches, I think expectations
for him should be tempered.
5. Backfield Questions Abound In Seattle
Why was Eddie Lacy brought to Seattle? Conventional wisdom initially
was he was brought to the northwest to be the Seahawks’ new
feature back. But, what if his primary purpose was to push Thomas Rawls? I’m not saying I know exactly what the Seattle brass
was thinking, but I know Thomas Rawls started the game for Seattle
this past weekend, not Lacy. Reports on Rawls suggest he is definitely
carving out a role as the season begins, but no one is certain how
big. Also, C.J. Prosise is the “man” on third downs
and Seattle’s offensive line is still one of the league’s
worst. Bottom line: Don’t over-spend on Lacy at your draft.
Too much risk still exists.
6. If You Take Tom, You Should Take
Jimmy, Too
Tom Brady is typically either the second or third quarterback being
drafted in re-draft leagues. Some might even take him before Aaron Rodgers based on the new weapons (Brandin Cooks) at his disposal.
And, no one would fault you for drafting the guy many feel is the
game’s best quarterback of all-time. But, if you do draft
Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo is a must-draft as well. Garoppolo’s
22-28-235 stat line to go along with two touchdown passes once again
emphatically calls for his selection as a handcuff to Brady. Normally,
the word handcuff in fantasy circles is reserved for running backs,
but this is the exception. I guarantee you if Brady was to go down
in the regular season, you wouldn’t find anyone on the waiver
wire comparable to Garoppolo’s fantasy ceiling. If you’re
going to get one, get both.
7. Initial Signs Suggest The Texans
may be Able to Move the Ball
DeShaun Watson’s much anticipated debut for the Texans was
uneven, but he did throw for 179 yards and ran for a touchdown.
His 60% completion percentage on 25 throws wasn’t too bad
for a rookie considering he averaged 12 yards a completion. The
dual threat that Watson possesses makes him a great late stash in
drafts. If he were to win the job at some point, he would be able
to get you points in a variety of ways. As for his competition,
Tom Savage did complete 9-of-11 passes for 69 yards… Meh.
Bottom line is that Houston went for well over 400 yards of offense
including a promising game for D’Onta Freeman (9-76). Any
offensive improvements bode well for the prospects of Houston’s
two biggest assets - DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller. Keep an eye
on Week 2 of the pre-season and see if the Texans can continue to
inspire confidence.
8. Because there’s No One Else…
Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension has sent the world of fantasy
football in a frenzy as owners try to figure out where to draft
Elliott and Darren McFadden. On a much smaller scale, owners are
also trying to figure out how to value Robby Anderson of the Jets
with Quincy Enunwa (neck) now out for the season. Anderson showed
again this weekend that while the Jets offense is nothing to get
excited about (that’s an understatement), Anderson can indeed
stretch the field (3 catches, 71 yards). Anderson and Josh McCown
could become what Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson were two years
ago. That is, guys who pile up stats late in the game when their
team is far behind. Is Anderson worth drafting? Absolutely. Not
because he’s a great player, but because there’s almost
literally no one else in New York to catch the ball.
9. Yes, it’s a Small Sample Size, But…
Everybody who owned Todd Gurley last season is going to need to
see something positive from Gurley this pre-season before taking
the plunge again. Four carries for two yards doesn’t inspire
much confidence. Yes, four carries is four carries, but the Rams
offense simply cannot be trusted to produce anything fantasy-worthy.
Acquiring Sammy Watkins made sense in terms of stretching the field,
but if Jared Goff can’t get him the ball, what’s the
point? Again, I don’t want to bring down the house of pessimism
based on four touches of the ball, but I draft Gurley, he needs
to show he can still be the running back he was during his rookie
campaign in 2015.
10. Zach Zenner Awards: Week 1
As has been the case the last two seasons, we finish off our top
ten list by honoring guys with big pre-season performances the way
Zach
Zenner made famous in Detroit. Look no further than Corey
Grant in Jacksonville (120 yards rushing), Tommylee
Lewis in New Orleans (10 catches, 124 yards, 1 TD), and Kenny
Golladay for the Lions (2 receiving TDs). Of these three, Golladay
is most notable as he was a third round draft pick and could push
for playing time on a team without a real star at the wide receiver
position.
Finally, a shout-out to C.J. Beathard, the grandson of longtime
NFL exec Bobby Beathard. He threw two touchdown passes for the 49ers
this weekend and an inside source tells me he’s turning heads
in San Francisco. He might be a great stash for those of your in
dynasty leagues.
We’ll be back next week to review Pre-season Week 2…
