This past weekend, we had football! And, not just one game…but
sixteen. Granted, it was the first time out of the garage in six
months and yes, some teams sat the majority of their players who
will be impactful come September…but that’s not to say
we didn’t learn a thing or two (or ten) that might be utilized
in formulating fantasy football draft strategies. And, even if you’ve
already drafted, this look back at the weekend could be beneficial
for you as well. So, getting back to that car/garage analogy…
1. The Rookie Quarterbacks Were Given the Keys to the
Car
By far, the most fascinating part of Week 1 this preseason was
seeing all five first-round draft picks at QB get significant
playing time. Mac
Jones was efficient for New England, completing nearly 70%
of his throws, but he also averaged less than 7 yards per completion.
Trevor Lawrence
was sacked and fumbled on his first snap from scrimmage, but then
settled into a rhythm that included several short connections
with Laviska
Shenault and a 35-yard dart to Marvin
Jones. Zach
Wilson led the Jets to a field goal on his/their opening drive
and demonstrated an ability to move the chains on third down.
Trey Lance
flashed his big-play potential with an 80-yard touchdown pass
against Kansas City. And last, but not at all least, Justin
Fields lit up Miami in the second half of that game with a
TD passing and rushing. Fields demonstrated why it will difficult
for Chicago to keep him off the field even if much of his damage
came against second-string defenders. In the end, Fields earned
a definite bump in redraft rankings and Lance in dynasty rankings.
The rest held their own giving managers no reason to value them
less than they did prior to the weekend.
2. We Have a Front-Runner in Broncos Starting QB Race
We can almost all agree that no fantasy managers are losing sleep
at night wondering who will be the quarterback in Week 1 for the
Broncos. That said, it isn’t an insignificant battle as Denver
has excellent skill position players who will benefit from one
of the QBs emerging with momentum. As of this window in time,
that QB with momentum is definitely Drew
Lock. Whereas Teddy
Bridgewater isn’t going to lose games, he rarely has the skill
set to go out and win games either. This weekend, Lock looked
the part of a QB who can win games with his arm and while he only
completed 5 passes vs. Minnesota, the average length of each completed
pass was over 30 yards! Like I said, reports out of Bronco camp
already have Jerry
Jeudy as nearly un-coverable. Imagine if he actually had a
QB that could get him the ball downfield. Again, it was only one
game, but it’s advantage Lock for now and that is encouraging
for managers who possess Jeudy, Courtland
Sutton, and/or Noah
Fant.
3. Two Panther Rookies are Worth Keeping an Eye On…
and a Charger, too
We had to wait until Sunday afternoon to see the final two teams
competing in Week 1 of the preseason and while little was gained
by watching the Colts operate on offense, a couple of rookies
stood tall for Carolina in limited action. First and foremost,
Terrace
Marshall Jr. was electric at the WR position hauling in three
of his five targets for 88 yards. Marshall has been a forgotten
man in redrafts and dynasty drafts alike as guys like Ja’Marr
Chase and DeVonta
Smith steal the spotlight. But, one doesn’t have to go back
far to remember another LSU wide receiver who was a bit off the
radar last August. I’m not saying Marshall is going to explode
like Justin
Jefferson did, but the Panthers aren’t committed to Robby
Anderson beyond 2021 and D.J.
Moore may be better suited as a high-end WR2 than a lead guy.
As such, Marshall is an excellent dynasty pick-up and a decent
redraft pick in later rounds. Elsewhere, Chuba
Hubbard ran decisively and powerfully en route to 80 yards
only 7 carries. Hubbard will not be a factor in 2021 as long as
Christian
McCaffrey is healthy, but after Sunday, he’s almost certainly
needing to be considered a must-handcuff. Finally, another rookie
RB is looking to seize the backup job in Charger-land and Larry
Rountree took a step towards that with 63 yards on only 8 carries.
Rountree III could easily supplant Justin
Jackson as Austin
Ekeler’s primary complement and with Los Angeles not wanting
to overwork Ekeler in general, Rountree’s role may take on a life
of its own as the season wears on. Keep an eye on these three
guys.
4. The Saints Offense is a Work in Progress… to
Put it Nicely
Those drafting Saint players based on past years may be in for
a rude awakening. Yes, there were always going to be growing pains
in the post-Drew
Brees era, but SIX turnovers is sloppy, even for Week 1 of
the preseason. With Michael
Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out, New Orleans is utilizing a
patchwork receiving corps right now. And apparently, their veteran
backs not named Kamara can’t hold onto the football as both Latavius
Murray and Devonta
Freeman were guilty of lost fumbles. The Saints do have a
good defense and as such may employ a fairly conservative game
plan this season to give themselves the best shot at winning games.
Just don’t think for a second that will translate to fantasy relevancy
because outside of Alvin
Kamara, it won’t. Let’s see what Week 2 looks like for this
discombobulated bunch.
5. The Pecking Order at Wide Receiver is Still Up in the
Air for Several Teams
In May, June, and July, fantasy prognosticators proclaim that
the WR pecking order for NFL teams had been figured out. In truth,
that’s not accurate. Take Jacksonville for example. New coach.
No pre-conceived notions about what role each WR should play.
Throw in veterans Tavon
Austin and Laquon
Treadwell. 6 targets combined for the two veterans resulted
in 6 receptions and in Austin’s case, a TD. Sure, Marvin
Jones and Laviska
Shenault are the favorites to get touches, but it’s hardly
a lock. How about Houston? Again, new coach and a WR1 (Brandin
Cooks) that is often injured. Who’s to say that journeyman,
Chris Conley,
won’t end up leading the team in catches. Finally, just because
Las Vegas drafted Henry
Ruggs III highly a year ago doesn’t mean he’ll develop into
a WR1…or even a starting caliber WR. The most productive WRs this
weekend for the Raiders were Keelan
Doss, D.J. Turner, and veteran Zay
Jones. The trio combined for 16 grabs on 17 targets. It’s
a depth chart with little clarity and that warrants taking and
maintaining a deeper look at what’s actually there beyond the
assumed.
6. Where There is No Moss, Singletary Hath Shone
The general consensus has been that if Buffalo is going to take
the next step and get to a Super Bowl, they have to become a more
balanced offense. That means more rushing attempts this season
and ultimately more yards. It has been assumed that Zack
Moss would move into the primary RB role while Devin
Singletary and perhaps Matt
Breida fought for what was left at the table. In reality,
Moss has missed time with a hamstring injury and Singletary looked
the part on Friday night of a guy who may be able to elevate his
game in Moss’s absence. Not only did Singletary score in the red
zone on a pass play, he also averaged 5+ yards a tote on 8 carries
looking quick and decisive as a runner. Years ago, it took Tiki
Barber a couple of years to gain his footing for the Giants who
brought in Ron Dayne to supposedly reduce Barber’s role. In the
end, Barber became a fantasy stand-out while Dayne’s role was
pedestrian. I’m not predicting that, per se, but Singletary is
being undervalued in redrafts and might be worth a much stronger
look a couple rounds sooner than his current ADP.
7. DeSean Jackson 2.0 is a Man Named Quez
The Eagles were fairly excited last summer about the prospects
of Quez Watkins in terms of stretching the field and thus taking
on the traditional DeSean Jackson role in Philly. As it turned
out, Watkins never got off the ground (no pun intended) due to
injuries and thus comes into this season with almost no hype,
fantasy or otherwise. On Thursday night, Watkins found himself
the recipient of a 79-yard TD from Joe Flacco that was easily
the Eagles’ biggest play of the night. With Jalen Reagor
performing unevenly last season and DeVonta Smith just as green
as Watkins, there exists an opportunity in Philadelphia for someone
other than Reagor and Smith to be consistently fantasy relevant.
Watkins may not be that guy in PPR leagues as his receptions don’t
figure to be mind-blowing, but he is someone to watch and possibly
target in the later rounds of a draft with deep rosters.
8. Miami’s Backfield is a Mess
On Saturday, many eyebrows were raised when Brian Flores, Miami’s
outstanding relatively young coach, decided to start Malcolm Brown
over Myles Gaskin at running back. With Gaskin playing later in
the game, it had nothing to do with Gaskin just getting the night
off. Brown ended up impressing no one with 8 yards on 9 carries,
leading some to wonder if his fit in the offense too closely mirrors
that of former Dolphin, Jordan Howard. And so, Gaskin entered
the game after Brown and garnered a respectable 19 yards on four
carries. Case closed, right? Not so much. After the game, Flores
indicated that he envisions the backfield as being a rotation
of three with Salvon Ahmed (who ran for nearly 7 yards a carry)
also in the mix alongside Gaskin and Brown. Yuck. I like Myles Gaskin as a player, but just like I think Devin Singletary is
being undervalued in fantasy circles right now, Gaskin is almost
certainly being overvalued. And, while I don’t think Brown
will ultimately pass him on the depth chart, the whole situation
is cringe-worthy. Remember, Brian Flores worked under Bill Belichick.
Enough said.
9. The Rumors About Sony Michel Being Expendable are Going to
Grow Louder
Speaking of the Patriots and the running back position, it was
hard not to notice the performance of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson
last Thursday night. Yes, the 12.7 yards per carry that Stevenson
gained on 10 totes were compiled against less than Washington’s
best, but it still signaled that the Patriots drafted him for
a purpose. With Damien Harris emerging last season as New England’s
primary early-down back and James White’s role remaining
unabated, Stevenson is best suited to replace whatever Sony Michel
has been reduced to. Michel is a talented enough runner to find
a home with another NFL team should the Patriots let him go in
the coming weeks. The writing on the wall just seems a little
more distinct after Week 1. Stevenson is definitely the better
late-round pick in a redraft for now.
10. The Forgotten Opt Out May be Back in Play
Finally, yet another team without an established WR2 is the Green
Bay Packers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard took turns
last season trying to fulfill that role, but in the end neither
seized it despite having the league’s MVP throwing them
the football. In Saturday’s game, the Packers’ lone
bright spot in otherwise dismal performance was the play of Devin Funchess. Once thought of a as a fantasy up-and-comer, Funchess
opted out in 2020 due to Covid-19 and many thought he might struggle
to make the 53-man roster. While that is still a possibility,
Funchess’s night (6 receptions, 70 yards) Saturday demonstrated
his ability to separate from defenders and present himself in
the passing game. Imagine what he could do in a real game with
Davante Adams drawing double coverage and Rodgers under center.
Again, as with all things preseason, his performance this weekend
has to be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, we leave no
stone unturned in the preseason here and his is a stone of interest
to be sure.
We’ll be back next Monday for a look at Preseason Week 2.