This is my second year reviewing the July Mock. With every year
of experience playing this game that we love, I learn more. I
learn new things; new concepts; new ideas. I learn some things
I didn’t even know were there to learn. But one thing that’s remained
constant over the years is the value and purpose of mock drafts.
I wrote the following two paragraphs last
year as an intro - here they are again to get your mind focused
on the information to come.
I once had a friend ask me what the point of a mock draft is.
Much of the excitement and enjoyment of a draft is eyeing that
player you want and actually being able to draft and root for
him all season. A mock is not real. You don’t actually own any
of those players. And it’s not like your actual drafts will mimic
your mock drafts. This attitude made me realize that many people
do not understand the underlying purpose of mocks – to educate
you.
This article is going to discuss one mock conducted in July, roughly
six weeks before the heart of draft season. A lot is going to
change between now and then. Player perception will change. Player
value will change. ADPs will rise and fall. Players will get injured.
Your actual draft will look much different than this mock that
I am about to discuss. So what’s the point of discussing it at
all? This may be repetitive to some, if not most of you, but it’s
important to be reminded why we conduct mock drafts. When reviewing
this particular mock and reading this article, remember to focus
on the concepts; focus on the why, not the what, or the who. Let’s
get to it.
1. I noticed 14 WRs were drafted in the
first two rounds (15 pass catchers if you count Rob Gronkowski).
That is an unprecedented number of receivers going in the top
two rounds. Five teams went WR-WR. Meanwhile, just one team went
RB-RB. This early round logic comports with the continued wide
receiver takeover in fantasy football. For years, running backs
dominated this game but that is not the case anymore. Wide receivers
are perceived as safer picks with lower bust rates (Although Steve
Schwarz’s article from July 15 begs to differ). This is a
trend unlikely to change between now and when we draft for real
in late August/early September. With the incredible depth at the
WR position, if you want an edge over your competitors early,
you need two top guys.
2. I noticed that the rookie love
affair stemming from the incredible 2014 class is all but over.
After Ezekiel
Elliott went 14th overall, the next rookie, Corey
Coleman, came off the board 67 picks later as the 9th selection
in the 7th round. To put things in perspective, the July 2015
Mock saw six rookies selected in the first 67 picks. It took a
year, but people are beginning to remember that 2014 was the exception,
not the rule. Historically, rookies do not perform well. There
were only 11 rookies drafted in total and other than Zeke, none
of them were done with any expectation of high level production.
While I don’t think the ceilings of Coleman and Sterling
Shepard (the No.2 and No.3 rookies selected) are very high
in 2016, if they finish the year as top 36 WRs, then the owners
that drafted them got a positive return on their investment. That
is the attitude more people need to take towards rookies and it
was showcased quite well in this mock.
QB Early? No thanks. There's no doubt fantasy
owners are embracing the wait-on-a-QB approach.
3. I noticed the continued
devaluation of the QB position.
Cam
Newton was the first quarterback off the board at No.33 overall.
Last year, Andrew
Luck was going in the first round. In the July 2015 Mock, every
team had their starting QB by the end of the 8th round. This year,
only eight teams took a quarterback by the same point. Most telling
about this year is how many viable starting quarterbacks there are
in the double digit rounds. I see a clear top 5, in no particular
order: Cam
Newton, Aaron
Rodgers, Russell
Wilson, Andrew
Luck, and Ben
Roethlisberger (Tom
Brady would make six if he wasn’t missing 25% of the season).
After these guys, I don’t see much separation between the rest.
You could rank the next 10-12 guys in any order and I’d be okay
with it. That philosophy was illustrated in this mock by the number
of quarterbacks taken in the rounds 10-13. This year more than ever,
wait on a QB.
4. I noticed
that Jscott essentially went “Zero-WR” and it backfired.
I know Gronk performs like a WR1, but he is not a WR, he is a TE.
Jscott did not draft his first wide receiver until the 4th round.
I am actually quite high on Jordan
Matthews this year, but not as anyone’s No.1 WR. Even if we
assume JMatt performs well, his next two wide receivers are rookies
(Coleman and Kevin
White, who is in his second year but is a de facto rookie by
virtue of not playing the entire 2015 season). He is relying on
a lot of unknowns to carry his team. While I do not endorse a Zero-WR
approach, I also don’t like the execution of the strategy. If you
are going to ignore WR early, you need to draft two elite running
backs. Instead, Jscott went with Devonta
Freeman, who likely just had his career best season and Latavius
Murray. Murray is another player I am higher on than most, but
doesn’t provide a high enough ceiling for an RB2 under this strategy.
Given the amount of question marks, it is equally surprising that
the bench is so weak. Drafting a second TE when you own Gronk is
unwise. Drafting Jameis
Winston to backup Newton is unnecessary. I hate to single out
Jscott – I’m sure he’s a nice guy – but this draft was downright
awful (hey, that’s why we practice right?).
5.
I noticed that Ralphster, contrary to Jscott, went “Zero-RB.”
I am not an advocate of Zero-RB either, but I believe Ralphster
executed the strategy very well. His first four picks were WRs,
anchored by megastar Odell
Beckham Jr. I am not a fan of Jarvis
Landry in the second round or Golden
Tate in the third round, but that comes down to personal opinion
on players; they are not objectively bad picks. I do like Michael
Floyd in the fourth as I think he will finish the year as Arizona’s
top scoring wide receiver. Where Ralphster really flourished was
in his choice of running backs. Carlos
Hyde in the 5th round is an absolute steal. Hyde should be going
late-3rd/early-4th at the latest as he showcased his tremendous
talent last year and now is the centerpiece of Chip Kelly’s offense,
who for all his failings, loves to run the football. Hyde is on
a weak offense, but in a PPR format, the combination of volume and
ability could push RB1 value, even if the touchdown numbers aren’t
eye-popping. While Hyde fell into his lap, Ralphster made more excellent
selections in Matt
Jones (6th round), T.J.
Yeldon (8th round) and Derrick
Henry (11th round).
My opinions on these players aren’t what’s important. Instead, focus
on the type of players he targeted. Jones is currently slated to
be the primary ball carrier in Washington. Yeldon is on the wrong
end of a timeshare, but likely has standalone FLEX value and is
one Chris
Ivory injury (something quite common in his career) away from
being a rock solid RB2. Similarly, Henry is one DeMarco
Murray injury away from RB2 value. When going Zero-WR, you want
RBs that have a clear path to increased value. Giovani
Bernard, Charles
Sims, and Jordan
Howard are other prime examples of “one step away” RB2s.
6. I noticed four owners drafted
either a bench WR or RB before completing their starting lineup
(3 WRs, 2 RBs):
Iceman, Ralphster, Ray Lewis’ Limo Driver, and Robb. Iceman decided
to go with Danny
Woodhead as a bench RB before taking Marvin
Jones two rounds later to complete his starting WR corps. I
would say this decision worked out as he did not pass on anyone
leaps and bounds better than Jones to select Woodhead. The decision
made his team better. Ralphster, as we discussed, went Zero-RB,
and I think he made smart decisions. Ray Lewis’ Limo Driver, like
Iceman, drafted a third RB before a third WR. Unfortunately, I think
he waited too long to grab that third WR (Steve
Smith, 8th round). He drafted DeMarco
Murray in the 5th round, pacing up on more reliable, higher
upside players. I do not like Murray, but he wasn’t necessarily
the problem here. The problem occurred when RLLD passed on a third
WR in the 6th and 7th rounds. His team would look a lot better with
Allen
Hurns, Michael
Crabtree or perhaps John
Brown at the WR3 spot instead of the injured Tyler
Eifert at TE in the 6th round.
Finally, we have Robb who started out with Adrian
Peterson and then rattled off four consecutive wide receivers.
It appears Robb came into this draft with a plan: only draft guys
who are either really old or really young. His first two picks were
players over 30 (AP and Jordy
Nelson). Then he went with three wide receivers age 25 or younger
and then two sophomore RBs, which is the point at which he failed.
Given the timing of this mock in relation to the Dolphins signing
Arian
Foster, he was able to fix his Jay
Ajayi selection by taking Foster in round 12, but obviously
had Foster been signed before this mock began, he would’ve been
long gone. There were at least five RBs drafted after Melvin
Gordon (robb’s pick at 7.10) that I would’ve drafted (Jonathan
Stewart to name one). I don’t think Robb’s strategy failed,
but rather his execution. I don’t mind the fourth wide receiver
before the second running back, I simply would have selected different
RBs.
7. I noticed 8 Steelers
drafted, the most from any NFL team.
It’s no secret that the Steelers are the top NFL team in terms of
fantasy relevance. I can’t remember the last time (if ever?) one
team had both the No.1 ranked WR and No.1 ranked RB. Even with the
loss of Martavis
Bryant, the Steelers still saw the most players drafted in this
mock. In addition to Antonio
Brown and Le’Veon
Bell, the Steelers have a top 5 quarterback in Ben
Roethlisberger, a top 12 tight end in Ladarius
Green, an extremely capable and proven handcuff running back
in DeAngelo
Williams, and two wide receivers that each (but not both) could
find a way into WR3 value in Markus
Wheaton and Sammie
Coates. There is a lot to like about the Steelers offense this
year and it would behoove fantasy owners to get them a piece. (Note:
this mock occurred before news broke about Bell’s missed drug tests.
Williams’s ADP should jump now that he is starting the first four
weeks.)
8. I noticed three 49ers were drafted,
the least from any NFL team.
This is sad. The great San Francisco 49ers have fallen so far that
a mere three players from their team were deemed worthy of being
on fantasy rosters and only Carlos
Hyde was drafted as a starter. Torrey
Smith, is hoping to return to the boom or bust WR3 he was in
Baltimore and Bruce
Ellington is trying to carve out WR5 value. Quinton
Patton, Eric Rogers, and DeAndre
Smelter are nothing more than late-round dart throws. In the
backfield, Hyde does not have a clear handcuff and won’t be in a
timeshare making other 49er running backs unappealing. And for the
sake of the women and children who may be reading this, let’s not
talk about a quarterback situation that comes down to a battle between
Colin
Kaepernick and Blaine
Gabbert. The 49ers have the worst roster in the NFL and it shows.
Hyde is the only piece of this offense you should have any interest
in.
9. Everyone drafted a kicker.
Each owner was required to draft a kicker in this mock, but I wanted
to mention that forgoing the position in your draft is a very underrated
strategic move, especially for anyone that drafts before the third
preseason game. Kickers, as we know, are both unpredictable and
replaceable. The difference between the No.1 scoring kicker and
No.12 scoring kicker is less than 2 points per week. If you are
drafting early, why not throw one more dart at a WR or RB and pickup
a kicker after the preseason ends? On a similar note, the strategy
can be applied to drafting or not drafting a defense.
10.
I noticed the draft position of these four players…
Carlos
Hyde - It’s not without a bit if irony that Hyde was
also featured in this section last year, but under completely different
circumstances. I was all out on Hyde and thought he was being overdrafted.
This year, I’ve done a complete 180. I mentioned earlier my reasons
for liking Hyde, but I find it interesting that people will gladly
take Todd
Gurley in the first round despite his similarly awful situation,
but fear Hyde. Please do not take this as me comparing the talents
of Hyde to Gurley – yes, Gurley is better. However, is Gurley four
rounds better than Hyde? I don’t think so. I’d be willing to grab
Hyde as early as the middle of the third round. Remember, your goal
is to find players who will likely be drafted at a higher ADP in
2017. I expect Hyde to be a second round pick next year, which would
mean a positive return on investment for 2016.
Jeremy
Langford - Here are some things Langford does not do
well: run the football, catch the football, pass block. These things
are kind of important for an NFL running back. Langford was the
least elusive back in the league last year in terms of broken tackles,
somehow managing to only break seven all season. He was last in
the league in yards after contact. He had the highest drop rate
amongst running backs that qualify. He was also one of the worst
pass blocking backs in the league, which will lead to him being
taken off the field during passing situations. Jordan
Howard may not be the second coming of Adrian
Peterson, but he was drafted with a purpose and at worst, will
be the other half of a timeshare. When this is all said and done,
I think we’re looking at a 50-30-20 split between Howard-Langford-Carey.
With a 4th/5th round ADP, I want both a higher floor and a higher
ceiling than Langford.
Tyler
Lockett - This draft saw Lockett as the 76th player off
the board. I am hard pressed to believe there are 75 players better
than Lockett this season. I’ve been consistently seeing Lockett
go in the 6th/7th round range and I think that’s absolutely criminal.
I think Lockett surpasses Doug
Baldwin this year as Seattle’s top receiver and returns 3rd
round value. He played on 61 percent of Seattle’s snaps last season
and I expect that number to be above 70 percent this season. If
you can make Lockett your WR3 or Flex player, you will be very happy
with the outcome.
Russell
Wilson - I’ve made it clear that I’m a proponent of the
wait on a QB strategy, but I want to talk about Russell Wilson.
Wilson went in the early 5th round and was the third QB off the
board behind Newton and Rodgers. I would not take Wilson any earlier
than the 5th round, but I’m going to be a bit hypocritical here
and tell you why it’s not the worst idea. I think Wilson finishes
2016 as the No.1 fantasy quarterback. The reason I advocate waiting
on a quarterback is because there typically is no value to be had
by paying top dollar for a top of the line QB, even if you know
what you’re getting. Wilson is not being drafted that way. Credit
to Frozenbeernuts for making Wilson the third QB selected because
I’ve seen him go behind Luck and even Roethlisberger at times.
The draft value of QBs has an ebb and flow. One year you’ll see
a handful going in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The next year you won’t
see more than one QB go before round 5. I think next year, Wilson
will be one of, if not the only QB being talked about in rounds
two and three. That does not necessarily make him worth a pick over
a RB or WR that you expect a similar production from, but it’s something
to consider in the 5th/6th round if you’re not in love with anyone
at either position.
On a final note, remember that every mock is different. Take a look
at the June mock compared to this one and you’ll see how very
different they are. You can and should try different strategies
and approaches and decide what works for you. Even the failed strategies
or strategies you don’t agree with can be learning tools.
I hope reading this article helps you as much as writing it helped
me.
