For me, there are few times during the year
I look forward to more than my money league drafts. Being on the
cusp of building a championship team and outwitting your opponents
is a feeling hard to describe, but one worth experiencing for the
sheer excitement and exhilaration it can produce.
However, that feeling of adrenaline shooting through your veins
can come to a quick halt if you don't feel like the most prepared
owner in your league on draft day. Even though many fantasy owners
play just for bragging rights, the goal for money leaguers and non-money
leaguers alike is the same: win. In my experience, winning starts
in the offseason with preparation, continues at the draft when you
can calmly select value over need, which carries over nicely into
the season when it is time to make a trade or two. Ideally, all
of this lands you firmly in the playoffs with an above-average chance
to claim the league championship.
As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value"
in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but
for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on
the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present
my "Big Board" in an attempt to earn both the respect
and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2011.
Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each
of my readers about a couple of key points:
1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other
draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies
heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point
totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts"
get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all
my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as
the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's
about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances
along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly
decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither
should you.
2) I will push a player down my board if
feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide
below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals
or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player
down my board – despite a higher average or overall point
total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses
like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end
more fantasy championship dreams than they help.
Note: At least for
this first Big Board, I have chosen to stop at 175 players and let
you – the fantasy owner – decide at what point you should
select your kicker and defense. I have carried over the entire color-coding
system from my PSAs to the Big Boards in order to give you an easy
reference tool for the entire season.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t
expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade
that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them
to perform like an average player at his position.
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production from them in this matchup.
Grey – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player
with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take
advantage. Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players:
And now, the initial non-PPR Big Board…
Kickers are people, too…
And finally, the defense/special teams rankings…
Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks
Defense/Special
Teams |
Pos |
Player |
Avg |
Tot |
PA |
Sack |
TO |
TD |
Bon |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
DST |
Packers DST |
11.0 |
165 |
258 |
46 |
62 |
30 |
27 |
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DST |
Steelers DST |
9.9 |
148 |
236 |
47 |
52 |
18 |
31 |
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DST |
Eagles DST |
9.3 |
140 |
328 |
44 |
58 |
30 |
8 |
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DST |
Saints DST |
9.3 |
139 |
275 |
38 |
58 |
24 |
19 |
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DST |
Jets DST |
9.1 |
136 |
233 |
36 |
56 |
12 |
32 |
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DST |
Ravens DST |
9.1 |
136 |
260 |
36 |
48 |
30 |
22 |
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DST |
Giants DST |
9.0 |
135 |
299 |
46 |
54 |
24 |
11 |
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DST |
Bears DST |
8.9 |
133 |
280 |
40 |
52 |
24 |
17 |
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DST |
Patriots DST |
8.6 |
129 |
275 |
33 |
58 |
24 |
14 |
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DST |
Chargers DST |
8.4 |
126 |
307 |
40 |
44 |
30 |
12 |
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DST |
Falcons DST |
8.3 |
124 |
298 |
36 |
56 |
18 |
14 |
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DST |
Colts DST |
8.1 |
122 |
298 |
34 |
50 |
24 |
14 |
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DST |
Cardinals DST |
7.9 |
119 |
318 |
38 |
50 |
24 |
7 |
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DST |
Cowboys DST |
7.8 |
117 |
310 |
36 |
46 |
24 |
11 |
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DST |
Chiefs DST |
7.8 |
117 |
287 |
34 |
50 |
18 |
15 |
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DST |
Lions DST |
7.7 |
116 |
373 |
37 |
52 |
30 |
-3 |
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DST |
Rams DST |
7.3 |
110 |
310 |
35 |
48 |
18 |
9 |
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DST |
Dolphins DST |
6.9 |
104 |
338 |
34 |
40 |
24 |
6 |
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DST |
Texans DST |
6.9 |
103 |
321 |
32 |
44 |
18 |
9 |
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DST |
Bucs DST |
6.9 |
103 |
346 |
32 |
48 |
18 |
5 |
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DST |
Broncos DST |
6.7 |
101 |
347 |
35 |
46 |
18 |
2 |
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DST |
Raiders DST |
6.8 |
102 |
374 |
38 |
42 |
24 |
-2 |
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DST |
Vikings DST |
6.5 |
97 |
396 |
35 |
42 |
24 |
-4 |
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DST |
Seahawks DST |
6.1 |
91 |
360 |
32 |
44 |
12 |
3 |
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DST |
Redskins DST |
6.1 |
91 |
369 |
31 |
44 |
18 |
-2 |
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DST |
Bengals DST |
5.9 |
88 |
339 |
27 |
44 |
12 |
5 |
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DST |
Bills DST |
5.8 |
87 |
387 |
26 |
44 |
24 |
-7 |
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DST |
Panthers DST |
5.7 |
86 |
397 |
30 |
48 |
12 |
-4 |
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DST |
49ers DST |
5.6 |
84 |
358 |
29 |
40 |
12 |
3 |
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DST |
Browns DST |
5.5 |
82 |
372 |
28 |
42 |
12 |
0 |
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DST |
Titans DST |
5.2 |
78 |
415 |
26 |
38 |
18 |
-4 |
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DST |
Jaguars DST |
5.2 |
78 |
388 |
23 |
38 |
18 |
-1 |
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Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow
him on Twitter. |