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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Big Boards - Version 2.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/21/12

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Change is inevitable. Since it is a fact of life, it is only fair that it should apply to fantasy football player rankings. So it probably goes without saying that in just one week, my Big Boards have changed drastically. And when next week’s Big Board is published, there’s a good chance that board will look nothing like the one I submitted just last week.

Fantasy football veterans understand the volatility of the market in mid-August, which goes a long way in explaining why so many adjustments need to be made in such a short amount of time. Sometimes, however, my Big Board will change simply because I have taken another week to collect information to strengthen my case for one set of players. In other situations, I saw what I needed to see from a player in the preseason or simply had a change of heart about his situation that allowed me to support him. But more than anything, taking another seven days to reassess the fantasy landscape sometimes is enough to lead to a makeover of the Big Board.

In an effort to make sure I am not affected by last week’s rankings, I start from scratch the next week once I finish a Big Board (only referring to the “old” one when I refer to how much a player’s stock has increased/decreased). And don’t think for a second that my Big Boards stay the same once I have submitted the third and final one. Breaking news and other information obtained in the minutes and hours prior to a draft – and sometimes even during a draft – can lead to a shift in thinking. While some may feel that statement is a bit extreme, the truth is that owners cannot always take a day to collect their thoughts about how they feel about a season-ending injury, change in job status, trade or free agent pickup that decides to occur as your league is having its draft.

Because I will submit one final Big Board next week, I will continue to treat Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace as players who will report to their teams soon. If their situation remains unchanged at this time next week, they should be considered extreme risks. There’s a very good chance that I will not draft either player this season anyway, but missing the entirety of the preseason and the installation of new offenses – not to mention that neither player can be in “football shape” – will probably push them into RB3 and WR4 status in my rankings.

As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. It is understanding the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week 1 starting lineup needs to be filled that often separates the great drafters from the very good ones. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big Board" in an attempt to earn both the respect and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2012.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each of my readers about a few key points:

1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on consistency and matchups, not on overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) I would like to direct your attention to one other significant change from seasons past. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – your will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying how many players are relatively decent bets to frustrate you at some point this season.

Note: At least for this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 175 players. Next week – my third and final installment of The Big Boards – will feature 200 players and a few tweaks I am looking forward to sharing with you.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White– Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below

***In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, two-WR league with a flex spot, which allows me to essentially compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is based on the 36th player at the position. Unlike last year, I make no assumptions about what position owners would prefer at their flex spot. One last note to mention regarding the values – numbers that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left side.)

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format (the non-PPR board below will use the same scoring minus the full-point point-per-reception):

Because change is the theme of this week, I will focus mainly the biggest risers and fallers from last week.

 PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Tm Risk Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster HOU   26 9.58 23.4 351.5
2 2 RB Ray Rice BAL 25 8.45 21.8 327.5
3 3 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 24 8.10 21.3 320.0
4 4 RB Chris Johnson TEN 26 6.80 19.5 292.5
5 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 28 7.66 30.7 460.6
6 2 QB Tom Brady NE 35 7.26 30.1 452.0
7 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 26 5.68 20.9 313.0
8 1 TE Jimmy Graham NO 25 6.67 20.3 304.5
9 3 QB Drew Brees NO 33 5.36 27.4 411.7
10 5 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 24 6.37 18.9 264.5
11 6 RB Darren Sproles NO 29 4.42 16.1 242.0
12 7 RB Darren McFadden OAK 25 6.59 19.2 230.5
13 8 RB Steven Jackson STL 29 3.81 15.3 229.0
14 9 RB Matt Forte CHI 26 4.32 16.0 240.0
15 10 RB Jamaal Charles KC 25 3.73 15.2 227.5
16 4 QB Cam Newton CAR 23 3.65 25.0 375.4
17 11 RB Ryan Mathews SD 24 6.72 19.4 252.0
18 2 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 23 4.03 16.6 248.5
19 2 WR Victor Cruz NYG 25 3.63 18.0 269.5
20 12 RB Doug Martin TB 23 3.45 14.8 221.5
21 13 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 26 3.12 14.3 214.5
22 3 WR Roddy White ATL 30 3.02 17.1 256.5
23 4 WR Julio Jones ATL 23 3.00 17.1 239.0
24 5 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 29 2.95 17.0 255.0
25 6 WR A.J. Green CIN 24 2.90 16.9 254.0
26 5 QB Matthew Stafford DET 24 3.20 24.4 366.0
27 14 RB M. Jones-Drew JAC 27 4.02 15.6 233.5
28 7 WR Andre Johnson HOU 31 3.73 18.1 235.5
29 8 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 24 3.68 18.0 252.5
30 15 RB Trent Richardson CLE 22 2.94 14.0 196.5
31 9 WR Brandon Marshall CHI 28 2.64 16.6 248.5
32 16 RB Fred Jackson BUF 31 3.64 15.0 225.5
33 17 RB Reggie Bush MIA 27 4.00 15.5 202.0
34 3 TE Aaron Hernandez NE 22 3.28 15.5 217.0
35 10 WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 24 2.52 16.4 246.0
36 6 QB Matt Ryan ATL 27 2.17 22.9 344.1
37 11 WR Eric Decker DEN 25 2.97 17.0 255.5
38 12 WR Marques Colston NO 29 3.02 17.1 256.5
39 18 RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 26 4.38 16.1 209.0
40 13 WR Dez Bryant DAL 23 2.83 16.8 252.5
41 14 WR Wes Welker NE 31 1.79 15.4 230.5
42 15 WR Percy Harvin MIN 24 2.52 16.4 246.0
43 16 WR D. Thomas DEN 24 2.46 16.3 212.0
44 7 QB Michael Vick PHI 32 2.82 23.9 310.2
45 4 TE Antonio Gates SD 32 2.98 15.1 181.0
46 17 WR Steve Smith CAR 33 1.58 15.1 226.0
47 18 WR Jordy Nelson GB 27 1.30 14.7 220.0
48 19 WR Brandon Lloyd NE 32 1.30 14.7 220.0
49 18 RB Willis McGahee DEN 30 2.09 12.8 192.5
50 19 RB Peyton Hillis KC 26 1.83 12.5 187.0
51 20 RB Michael Turner ATL 30 0.86 11.1 166.5
52 20 WR Greg Jennings GB 28 2.43 16.3 244.0
53 21 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 27 0.69 10.9 152.0
54 5 TE Vernon Davis SF 28 2.00 13.7 205.5
55 22 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 25 2.09 12.8 192.5
56 23 RB Kevin Smith DET 25 3.51 14.8 193.0
57 21 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 27 1.93 15.6 233.5
58 22 WR Steve Johnson BUF 26 1.60 15.1 226.5
59 24 RB Frank Gore SF 29 0.00 9.9 128.5
60 25 RB Pierre Thomas NO 27 0.81 11.0 165.5
61 8 QB Tony Romo DAL 32 2.35 23.2 348.0
62 23 WR Miles Austin DAL 28 2.29 16.1 241.0
63 24 WR Vincent Jackson TB 29 1.63 15.1 227.0
64 6 TE Jermichael Finley GB 25 1.86 13.5 202.5
65 9 QB Eli Manning NYG 31 0.86 21.1 316.4
66 10 QB Peyton Manning DEN 36 0.61 20.7 311.1
67 11 QB Philip Rivers SD 30 0.44 20.5 307.4
68 25 WR Antonio Brown PIT 24 0.38 13.4 200.5
69 26 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 25 0.37 13.4 187.0
70 27 WR Mike Wallace PIT 26 0.68 13.8 207.0
71 28 WR Nate Washington TEN 29 0.40 13.4 201.0
72 26 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 25 0.77 11.0 164.5
73 29 WR Torrey Smith BAL 23 0.00 12.8 192.5
74 12 QB Jay Cutler CHI 29 0.08 20.0 299.8
75 7 TE Jason Witten DAL 30 1.86 13.5 202.5
76 13 QB Robert Griffin III WAS 22 0.00 19.9 278.2
77 27 RB Donald Brown IND 25 0.11 10.0 130.5
78 30 WR D. Heyward-Bey OAK 25 0.09 13.0 181.5
79 28 RB B. Green-Ellis CIN 27 0.01 9.9 148.0
80 29 RB Shonn Greene NYJ 27 1.22 11.6 162.5
81 30 RB Ryan Williams ARI 22 0.45 9.3 129.5
82 31 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 26 0.71 11.8 177.5
83 31 RB Mark Ingram NO 22 0.68 8.9 116.0
84 32 WR Reggie Wayne IND 33 0.19 12.6 188.5
85 8 TE Tony Gonzalez ATL 36 0.94 12.2 183.0
86 9 TE Brandon Pettigrew DET 27 0.49 11.6 173.5
87 33 WR Titus Young DET 23 0.33 12.4 185.5
88 34 WR Greg Little CLE 23 0.02 12.8 192.0
89 10 TE Fred Davis WAS 26 0.16 10.6 159.5
90 11 TE Jermaine Gresham CIN 24 0.99 12.3 184.0
91 32 RB Michael Bush CHI 28 0.79 8.8 131.5
92 33 RB Rashad Jennings JAC 27 1.01 8.5 110.0
93 34 RB Stevan Ridley NE 23 0.61 10.8 150.5
94 35 RB Beanie Wells ARI 24 0.65 9.0 116.5
95 36 RB Ben Tate HOU 24 1.40 7.9 118.5
96 14 QB Josh Freeman TB 24 0.01 19.9 297.8
97 15 QB Andrew Luck IND 22 0.40 19.3 289.6
98 16 QB Jake Locker TEN 24 0.04 19.8 297.2
99 35 WR Michael Crabtree SF 24 0.73 11.8 177.0
100 36 WR Robert Meachem SD 27 0.21 13.1 197.0
101 12 TE Jacob Tamme DEN 27 0.21 10.6 158.5
102 37 WR Denarius Moore OAK 23 0.31 13.3 172.5
103 37 RB Isaac Redman PIT 27 0.01 9.9 148.5
104 38 WR Kenny Britt TEN 23 1.43 10.8 86.5
105 38 RB Evan Royster WAS 24 0.56 10.7 149.5
106 39 WR Mike Williams TB 25 0.09 12.7 190.5
107 40 WR Justin Blackmon JAC 22 1.77 10.3 155.0
108 41 WR Kendall Wright TEN 22 1.38 10.9 141.5
109 13 TE Greg Olsen CAR 27 0.16 10.6 159.5
110 39 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 29 1.17 8.2 123.5
111 40 RB Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 23 1.29 8.1 121.0
112 13 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 22 0.49 10.2 152.5
113 14 TE Brent Celek PHI 27 0.45 10.2 153.5
114 41 RB Kendall Hunter SF 23 0.88 8.6 129.5
115 42 RB David Wilson NYG 21 2.06 7.0 97.5
116 43 RB Toby Gerhart MIN 25 1.14 8.3 124.0
117 44 RB James Starks GB 26 2.77 13.8 179.5
118 45 RB Roy Helu WAS 23 2.73 13.8 165.0
119 15 TE Jared Cook TEN 25 0.00 10.9 163.0
120 46 RB Vick Ballard IND 22 0.98 8.5 127.5
121 17 QB Joe Flacco BAL 27 1.41 17.9 268.2
122 18 QB B. Roethlisberger PIT 30 2.07 16.9 254.1
123 47 RB Daniel Thomas MIA 24 0.23 10.2 143.0
124 48 RB Shane Vereen NE 23 0.38 9.3 121.5
125 49 RB Ronnie Hillman DEN 20 0.86 8.7 130.0
126 50 RB Mike Goodson OAK 26 3.12 5.5 82.0
127 42 WR Anquan Boldin BAL 31 0.03 12.8 179.0
128 43 WR Austin Collie IND 26 0.69 11.9 166.0
129 44 WR Santonio Holmes NYJ 28 0.73 11.8 177.0
130 45 WR Danny Amendola STL 26 1.23 11.1 166.5
131 46 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 22 3.21 8.3 124.5
132 19 QB Matt Schaub HOU 31 2.12 16.9 253.0
133 51 RB LeGarrette Blount TB 25 1.79 7.3 95.5
134 47 WR Jonathan Baldwin KC 23 2.64 9.1 136.5
135 16 TE Owen Daniels HOU 29 1.27 9.1 136.0
136 17 TE Coby Fleener IND 23 0.78 9.8 146.5
137 48 WR Malcom Floyd SD 30 0.71 11.8 142.0
138 49 WR Sidney Rice SEA 26 2.06 9.9 129.0
139 52 RB Alex Green GB 24 2.44 6.4 96.5
140 53 RB Cedric Benson GB 29
141 20 QB Carson Palmer OAK 32 2.86 15.8 237.3
142 21 QB Alex Smith SF 28 1.31 18.0 270.3
143 54 RB R. Mendenhall PIT 25 1.86 7.3 87.0
144 55 RB Isaiah Pead STL 22 2.30 6.6 99.5
145 56 RB Mikel Leshoure DET 22 1.51 7.8 77.5
146 50 WR Brandon LaFell CAR 25 2.88 8.8 131.5
147 51 WR Davone Bess MIA 26 3.18 8.3 125.0
148 52 WR Randall Cobb GB 22 3.25 8.2 123.5
149 22 QB Christian Ponder MIN 24 0.90 18.6 223.1
150 23 QB Andy Dalton CIN 24 1.78 17.4 260.4
151 18 TE Dustin Keller NYJ 27 0.66 9.9 149.0
152 53 WR Laurent Robinson JAC 27 0.86 11.6 151.0
153 54 WR Eddie Royal SD 26 1.13 11.2 146.0
154 55 WR Randy Moss SF 35 2.05 9.9 149.0
155 24 QB Sam Bradford STL 24 2.05 17.0 254.6
156 56 WR Santana Moss WAS 33 1.25 11.1 155.0
157 25 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 29 2.50 16.3 245.0
158 57 WR David Nelson BUF 25 1.34 10.9 164.0
159 58 WR Lance Moore NO 29 1.70 10.4 146.0
160 59 WR Steve Smith STL 27 1.93 10.1 151.5
161 60 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 23 2.47 9.3 140.0
162 57 RB Montario Hardesty CLE 25 3.66 4.7 56.5
163 58 RB Jahvid Best DET 23 0.91 11.2 67.0
164 26 QB Matt Cassel KC 30 2.31 16.6 232.4
165 58 RB Mike Tolbert CAR 26 1.36 8.0 103.5
166 59 RB Bernard Scott CIN 29 1.71 7.5 104.5
167 61 WR Jerome Simpson MIN 26 2.36 9.5 114.0
168 62 WR Brian Quick STL 23 2.92 8.7 130.5
169 19 TE Tony Moeaki KC 25 0.36 10.4 114.0
170 20 TE Kellen Davis CHI 26 0.90 9.6 144.0
171 21 TE Heath Miller PIT 29 1.04 9.4 141.0
172 63 WR Nate Burleson DET 31 3.16 8.4 125.5
173 64 WR Harry Douglas ATL 27 3.58 7.8 116.5
174 65 WR L. Hankerson WAS 23 4.08 7.1 106.0
175 22 TE Lance Kendricks STL 24 8.96 8.3 125.0

Top 25: Aside from maybe Adrian Peterson, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more imposing physical specimen at the running back position than Steven Jackson. Additionally, given the sorry state of the Rams’ franchise for the majority of time he has been in St. Louis, Jackson could have easily become a distraction. Instead, he has consistently churned out 1,000-yard and 40-catch seasons in relative anonymity for most of his career, becoming a rather durable player (two total games missed in three years after missing four games in each of the two previous seasons) in the process. We all know the Rams aren’t challenging for the Lombardi Trophy this year, but would anyone really be surprised if Jackson posted 1,600+ total yards for the fourth time in his career and scored at least six touchdowns this season after doing so in each of the last two seasons for offenses much worse than this one should be? Skeptics will suggest that rookie Isaiah Pead will stop one – if not both – of those benchmarks from being reached, but in a year where so many RBs are injury risks or in committees, Jackson stands as one of the true feature backs in the game that can be had after the top five picks and he will likely be available well into the second round. And as far as draft strategy goes, I’d be thrilled to land Darren McFadden and Jackson at the 1-2 turn of a 12-team draft.

Up until two weeks ago, I was convinced that I would not be drafting Jamaal Charles. After all, how can anyone defend the selection of a player in the second round who relies on his incredible speed and quickness coming off an ACL injury who is also sharing carries with one of the most versatile power backs in the league? While I’m not seeing his trademark explosion – I don’t expect to see it at any point this season, for what it is worth – Charles is showing me more lateral agility than I expected him to have less than a year after the injury. That is a pretty big deal for a player like Charles since he cannot rely on running through tackles like his new teammate Peyton Hillis can. Since Kansas City has Charles and Hillis earmarked for roughly 500 touches (31.25 per game), opportunity should not be a problem. Factor in what projects to be one of the best run-blocking lines in the league and a schedule that should be very forgiving against the run and, all of the sudden, Charles is looking like a pretty good RB2 to own in 2012.

Two of my biggest risers from last week were players that I had no intention moving up: Marshawn Lynch and A.J. Green. In Lynch’s case, I simply took a little more time to analyze his situation and concluded that I cannot hold the “knucklehead factor” against him so much that I advise owners pass on him until the fourth round. He’s one of the few feature backs in fantasy and I saw him run with the same kind of vision and power this past weekend against Denver that made him a revelation last season. In Green’s case, it is clear that Andy Dalton will go to him regardless of the coverage and/or situation. It’s a fact I needed to be reminded of - and I was as I watched Dalton and Green connect repeatedly against the Falcons, including a touchdown against Asante Samuel. While I realize Samuel is not a shutdown corner, most quarterbacks will not target him repeatedly because he is so instinctual. The fact Dalton did speaks volumes about the trust he has in Green and a trend I expect to continue since the Bengals appear content to run a committee at receiver opposite Green.

26-50: We are nearing the point of no return in regards to Maurice Jones-Drew’s fantasy stock. Assuming he does not report to camp this week – which looks like an extreme longshot at this point – owners need to move him down about two rounds and consider Rashad Jennings as the new feature back. In fact, I suspect MJD will probably be ranked as a fifth-round value on my final Big Board if there is no evidence the stalemate is over. Conversely, the dropping of his stock will lead to the likely meteoric rise of Jennings, who has done nothing but impress this summer. Already a candidate to rob MJD of some of his fantasy value before the preseason even started, Jennings can probably already be considered as the Jags’ lead back through the first five pre-bye games of the season right now. I have him in the eighth-round area right now and he’ll probably move up another 3-4 rounds in one more week if nothing changes with MJD.

Another big riser this week is Reggie Bush. While I would bet good money that he doesn’t come anywhere close to reaching his stated goal of leading the NFL in rushing this year, I tend to believe he will be a big part of whatever offense Miami mounts this season. I also have enough confidence in the Dolphins offensive braintrust (HC Joe Philbin and OC Mike Sherman) that Miami will not overexpose Bush and use him in the fashion that he should be used – a complementary runner that creates mismatches in the passing game. I still believe Daniel Thomas will be this team’s leading rusher – and possible goal-line back – by the end of the season, but in this full-point-per-reception format, I expect Bush to actually improve on his fantasy production from last season because he’ll finish with more receptions than he has in years.

51-100: Please tell me the RB position hasn’t gotten so thin that Kevin Smith is worth a fifth-round pick. Granted, I’m a little less frosty towards Smith’s injury history than most – particularly since he helped me win my big-money league last year – but some running back in Detroit is going to have value in PPR leagues this year. And given that the other realistic options haven’t practiced lately (Mikel LeShoure) or are being held out of practice with a good chance to start the season on the PUP list (Jahvid Best), Smith is almost the RB to own by default. Bear in mind that Smith has little chance of being featured in this offense – either because LeShoure or Keiland Williams will steal snaps – but as the most trusted and healthy passing-down back in this offense, Smith is bound to be on the receiving end of a lot of swing passes and check downs from Matthew Stafford.

One player that has impressed me mightily through two preseason games is Donald Brown. Sure, many of us remember the dump-off pass than turned into Andrew Luck’s first touchdown pass as a pro, but the explosion he is showing right now probably reminds the Colts of the back they thought they were getting in the first round of the 2009 draft out of UConn. More than that, however, is the toughness with which is he running. While my opinion has not changed in regards to rookie Vick Ballard eventually taking over lead-back duties, perhaps that torch does not get passed until next year. Given the fact Ballard himself has been impressive, I think a 50-35-15 (Brown-Ballard-Delone Carter/Mewelde Moore) split is probably a pretty good estimate on how the backfield touches will be divided. Bear in mind that 2011 was the first time in Brown’s three-year NFL career that he played more than 13 games (he still has not exceeded 150 touches in a season yet), so don’t go overboard on drafting him. And if you draft Brown, do yourself a favor and draft Ballard as well.

101-175: I’m going to apologize now for my current stance on Cedric Benson: I won’t have any idea how to project him until next week. Early reports out of Green Bay suggest the coaching staff thinks he’ll be a good fit in their zone-based running scheme and that he showed “fresh legs”. Both of those assessments make a ton of sense considering: 1) he just signed after everyone else had been in camp two-plus weeks and 2) that he just finished a four-year stint with the Bengals, who use a similar zone-blocking scheme. Here’s the problem: he has virtually no upside and I can’t convince myself that he’ll remain with the team for the entire season. Benson is a poor option at the goal line, offers next to nothing as a receiver in the passing game (in a passing offense, mind you) and probably is less capable of breaking a big play than Ryan Grant was last season. James Starks (turf toe) is still the best back the Packers – when healthy – while Alex Green has the best combination of receiving skills and upside. There’s a good chance Green will soon be the best Green Bay RB to own in PPR leagues, but I don’t think we can say the same about Benson.

If I had the slightest bit of faith that Malcom Floyd would stay healthy all season long, there’s a pretty good chance I would move him into the top 100, if not the top 75. Following Vincent Brown’s ankle injury (likely to keep him out eight weeks), the door is open again for Floyd to be the big-play receiver in this offense as Philip Rivers and Robert Meachem continue to struggle with their chemistry during the preseason. But at some point, Floyd’s supporters must face the fact that he has played just one 16-game season in his eight-year NFL career and never exceeded 45 catches. His 11 TDs over the past two seasons make him worthy of a roster spot in non-PPR leagues and while he has shown he can be a force when he plays, he simply cannot be counted on for any length of time. In my experience, that matches my description of a fantasy WR4, which is exactly why I have ranked as the last WR4 on my PPR board.

 Non-PPR Big Board
OVR PR Pos Player Tm Risk Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB Arian Foster HOU   26 7.58 19.0 285.5
2 2 RB Ray Rice BAL 25 6.45 17.4 261.5
3 3 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 24 6.38 17.3 260.0
4 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 28 7.58 30.7 460.6
5 2 QB Tom Brady NE 35 7.17 30.1 452.0
6 4 RB Chris Johnson TEN 26 5.84 16.6 248.5
7 3 QB Drew Brees NO 33 5.28 27.4 411.7
8 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 26 4.41 14.5 218.0
9 1 TE Jimmy Graham NO 25 4.90 13.7 205.5
10 5 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 24 5.26 15.8 220.5
11 6 RB Darren McFadden OAK 25 5.47 16.0 192.5
12 7 RB Steven Jackson STL 29 3.18 12.8 192.0
13 8 RB Jamaal Charles KC 25 2.73 12.2 182.5
14 9 RB Ryan Mathews SD 24 5.11 15.5 202.0
15 10 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 26 3.11 12.7 190.5
16 4 QB Cam Newton CAR 23 3.56 25.0 375.4
17 2 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 23 3.35 11.5 172.5
18 5 QB Matthew Stafford DET 24 3.12 24.4 366.0
19 11 RB Matt Forte CHI 26 2.94 12.5 187.0
20 12 RB Doug Martin TB 23 2.68 12.1 181.5
21 13 RB Trent Richardson CLE 22 2.38 11.7 163.5
22 2 WR Julio Jones ATL 23 2.72 12.1 170.0
23 3 WR A.J. Green CIN 24 2.52 11.9 178.0
24 4 WR Roddy White ATL 30 2.26 11.5 172.5
25 5 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 29 2.00 11.1 167.0
26 6 WR Victor Cruz NYG 25 2.36 11.6 174.5
27 7 WR Dez Bryant DAL 23 2.45 11.8 176.5
28 14 RB M. Jones-Drew JAC 27 3.29 13.0 194.5
29 15 RB Fred Jackson BUF 31 3.20 12.8 192.5
30 8 WR Andre Johnson HOU 31 2.75 12.2 158.5
31 9 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG 24 2.74 12.2 170.5
32 6 QB Matt Ryan ATL 27 2.09 22.9 344.1
33 16 RB Willis McGahee DEN 30 2.26 11.5 172.5
34 10 WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 24 2.05 11.2 168.0
35 11 WR Brandon Marshall CHI 28 1.79 10.8 162.5
36 7 QB Michael Vick PHI 32 2.74 23.9 310.2
37 3 TE Aaron Hernandez NE 22 2.29 10.0 140.0
38 4 TE Antonio Gates SD 32 2.29 10.0 120.0
39 17 RB Peyton Hillis KC 26 1.76 10.8 162.0
40 18 RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 26 3.10 12.7 165.0
41 12 WR Marques Colston NO 29 2.12 11.3 169.5
42 13 WR D. Thomas DEN 24 2.13 11.3 147.0
43 14 WR Eric Decker DEN 25 1.93 11.0 165.5
44 5 TE Vernon Davis SF 28 1.60 9.0 135.5
45 15 WR Brandon Lloyd NE 32 1.48 10.4 156.0
46 16 WR Jordy Nelson GB 27 1.39 10.3 154.0
47 17 WR Steve Smith CAR 33 1.39 10.3 154.0
48 19 RB Michael Turner ATL 30 1.46 10.4 155.5
49 20 RB Kevin Smith DET 25 2.28 11.5 150.0
50 21 RB Reggie Bush MIA 27 1.96 11.1 144.0
51 22 RB Darren Sproles NO 29 1.72 10.7 161.0
52 8 QB Tony Romo DAL 32 2.27 23.2 348.0
53 18 WR Greg Jennings GB 28 2.10 11.3 169.0
54 19 WR Percy Harvin MIN 24 1.86 10.9 164.0
55 20 WR Miles Austin DAL 28 1.63 10.6 159.0
56 23 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 27 0.84 9.5 133.0
57 24 RB Frank Gore SF 29 0.46 9.0 116.5
58 21 WR Vincent Jackson TB 29 1.63 10.6 159.0
59 22 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 27 1.23 10.0 150.5
60 23 WR Steve Johnson BUF 26 1.04 9.8 146.5
61 6 TE Jermichael Finley GB 25 1.56 9.0 134.5
62 24 WR Wes Welker NE 31 0.61 9.2 137.5
63 25 WR Nate Washington TEN 29 0.68 9.3 139.0
64 9 QB Eli Manning NYG 31 0.78 21.1 316.4
65 10 QB Peyton Manning DEN 36 0.53 20.7 311.1
66 26 WR Torrey Smith BAL 23 0.42 8.9 133.5
67 27 WR Antonio Brown PIT 24 0.19 8.6 128.5
68 7 TE Jason Witten DAL 30 1.08 8.3 124.5
69 28 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 25 0.90 9.6 134.0
70 25 RB Shonn Greene NYJ 27 1.32 10.2 142.5
71 26 RB B. Green-Ellis CIN 27 0.44 8.9 134.0
72 29 WR D. Heyward-Bey OAK 25 0.27 8.7 121.5
73 30 WR Mike Wallace PIT 26 0.92 9.6 144.0
74 27 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 25 1.08 9.8 147.5
75 11 QB Philip Rivers SD 30 0.36 20.5 307.4
76 12 QB Jay Cutler CHI 29 0.00 20.0 299.8
77 28 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 25 0.51 9.0 135.5
78 29 RB Mark Ingram NO 22 0.00 8.3 108.0
79 30 RB Donald Brown IND 25 0.19 8.0 104.5
80 8 TE Tony Gonzalez ATL 36 0.59 7.6 114.0
81 31 WR Reggie Wayne IND 33 0.24 8.0 119.5
82 31 RB Isaac Redman PIT 27 0.18 8.6 128.5
83 32 RB Beanie Wells ARI 24 0.08 8.4 109.5
84 32 WR Titus Young DET 23 0.00 8.3 124.5
85 33 RB Michael Bush CHI 28 0.71 7.3 109.5
86 13 QB Robert Griffin III WAS 22 0.08 19.9 278.2
87 34 RB Pierre Thomas NO 27 0.34 7.8 117.5
88 35 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 29 0.57 7.5 112.5
89 36 RB Ben Tate HOU 24 0.71 7.3 109.5
90 37 RB Rashad Jennings JAC 27 0.76 7.2 94.0
91 9 TE Jermaine Gresham CIN 24 0.78 7.9 118.0
92 14 QB Josh Freeman TB 24 0.09 19.9 297.8
93 15 QB Andrew Luck IND 22 0.48 19.3 289.6
94 16 QB Jake Locker TEN 24 0.12 19.8 297.2
95 38 RB Toby Gerhart MIN 25 1.44 6.3 94.0
96 39 RB James Starks GB 26 2.42 11.7 152.5
97 33 WR Robert Meachem SD 27 0.45 8.9 134.0
98 34 WR Greg Little CLE 23 0.21 8.0 120.0
99 35 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 26 0.28 7.9 118.5
100 10 TE Greg Olsen CAR 27 0.05 6.8 102.5
101 11 TE Brandon Pettigrew DET 27 0.00 6.8 101.5
102 12 TE Fred Davis WAS 26 0.19 6.5 97.5
103 39 RB Stevan Ridley NE 23 1.07 9.8 137.5
104 40 RB Ryan Williams ARI 22 0.80 7.2 100.5
105 41 RB LeGarrette Blount TB 25 0.95 7.0 90.5
106 36 WR Kendall Wright TEN 22 0.73 7.3 94.5
107 13 TE Jared Cook TEN 25 0.12 6.9 104.0
108 14 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 22 0.24 6.4 96.5
109 37 WR Denarius Moore OAK 23 0.63 9.2 119.5
110 42 RB Evan Royster WAS 24 0.51 9.0 126.5
111 43 RB Vick Ballard IND 22 0.38 7.8 116.5
112 44 RB Daniel Thomas MIA 24 0.54 9.1 127.0
113 45 RB Cedric Benson GB 29
114 46 RB Alex Green GB 24 2.50 4.8 71.5
115 38 WR Anquan Boldin BAL 31 0.16 8.1 113.0
116 39 WR Michael Crabtree SF 24 0.54 7.5 113.0
117 40 WR Justin Blackmon JAC 22 1.06 6.8 102.0
118 47 RB Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 23 1.87 5.7 85.0
119 48 RB David Wilson NYG 21 1.66 6.0 83.5
120 17 QB Joe Flacco BAL 27 1.49 17.9 268.2
121 18 QB B. Roethlisberger PIT 30 2.15 16.9 254.1
122 41 WR Mike Williams TB 25 0.00 8.3 124.5
123 42 WR Kenny Britt TEN 23 0.70 7.3 58.5
124 43 WR Laurent Robinson JAC 27 0.38 7.8 101.0
125 49 RB Mike Goodson OAK 26 2.95 4.1 62.0
126 50 RB Shane Vereen NE 23 0.90 7.0 91.5
127 51 RB Kendall Hunter SF 23 1.14 6.7 100.5
128 52 RB Mikel Leshoure DET 22 1.17 6.7 66.5
129 44 WR Santonio Holmes NYJ 28 0.59 7.5 112.0
130 45 WR Malcom Floyd SD 30 0.08 8.4 101.0
131 15 TE Coby Fleener IND 23 0.24 6.4 96.5
132 16 TE Brent Celek PHI 27 0.28 6.4 95.5
133 46 WR Sidney Rice SEA 26 1.08 6.8 88.0
134 53 RB R. Mendenhall PIT 25 1.46 6.3 75.0
135 47 WR Brandon LaFell CAR 25 1.74 5.8 87.5
136 48 WR Randall Cobb GB 22 1.89 5.6 84.5
137 49 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 22 1.84 5.7 85.5
138 50 WR Jonathan Baldwin KC 23 1.60 6.0 90.5
139 17 TE Owen Daniels HOU 29 1.01 5.3 80.0
140 18 TE Jacob Tamme DEN 27 0.38 6.2 93.5
141 19 TE Tony Moeaki KC 25 0.03 6.7 74.0
142 19 QB Matt Schaub HOU 31 2.21 16.9 253.0
143 54 RB Roy Helu WAS 23 1.67 10.7 128.0
144 55 RB Jahvid Best DET 23 0.69 7.3 44.0
145 20 QB Carson Palmer OAK 32 2.95 15.8 237.3
146 21 QB Alex Smith SF 28 1.39 18.0 270.3
147 51 WR Austin Collie IND 26 0.72 7.3 102.0
148 52 WR Randy Moss SF 35 1.06 6.8 102.0
149 53 WR Lance Moore NO 29 1.27 6.5 91.0
150 56 RB Ronnie Hillman DEN 20 1.96 5.5 83.0
151 57 RB Isaiah Pead STL 22 2.69 4.5 67.5
152 22 QB Christian Ponder MIN 24 0.99 18.6 223.1
153 23 QB Andy Dalton CIN 24 1.86 17.4 260.4
154 54 WR Jerome Simpson MIN 26 1.51 6.2 74.0
155 24 QB Sam Bradford STL 24 2.13 17.0 254.6
156 20 TE Dustin Keller NYJ 27 0.40 6.2 93.0
157 58 RB Ronnie Brown SD 30 3.92 2.8 41.5
158 59 RB Montario Hardesty CLE 25 2.84 4.3 51.5
159 60 RB Bernard Scott CIN 29 1.51 6.2 86.5
160 55 WR Danny Amendola STL 26 1.56 6.1 91.5
161 56 WR Brian Quick STL 23 1.56 6.1 91.5
162 25 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 29 2.58 16.3 245.0
163 61 RB D.J. Ware NYG 27 3.42 3.5 52.0
164 62 RB Mike Tolbert CAR 26 2.37 5.0 64.5
165 63 RB Bilal Powell NYJ 23 2.46 4.8 72.5
166 64 RB Marcel Reece OAK 27 1.61 6.0 90.5
167 65 RB Robert Turbin SEA 22 4.16 2.4 34.0
168 26 QB Matt Cassel KC 30 2.39 16.6 232.4
169 27 QB Blaine Gabbert JAC 22 3.28 15.3 230.2
170 21 TE Kellen Davis CHI 26 0.45 6.1 92.0
171 22 TE Ed Dickson BAL 25 1.10 5.2 73.0
172 23 TE Charles Clay MIA 23 1.11 5.2 78.0
173 24 TE Scott Chandler BUF 27 1.22 5.0 70.5
174 28 QB Matt Flynn SEA 27 4.19 14.1 210.9
175 25 TE Lance Kendricks STL 24 1.11 5.2 78.0

Top 25: : Let’s get one thing out of the way right away – I don’t believe in the “Madden Curse”. (In fact, I don’t like even mentioning it here since acknowledging it suggests that it is real.) Generally speaking, my take on the “Madden Curse” is the phenomenon that happens when a player essentially fails to improve on a career year – something that shouldn’t be expected to happen in the first place. Since they first started with the Madden franchise, EA Sports – or the fans more recently – has typically selected injury-prone players (Marshall Faulk and Michael Vick come immediately to mind) or players coming off huge workloads the season before (Shaun Alexander and Hillis, for example). This brings me back to this year’s cover boy, Calvin Johnson. After watching both of the Lions’ preseason games so far, I’m getting a bad feeling about Megatron and it has nothing to do with talent, supporting cast or the schedule; it has to do with the way he is being tackled. At 6-5 and about 235 pounds, Johnson is roughly about 40-50 pounds heavier than most of the defensive backs covering him. This leaves players that aren’t used to tackling such a large man – and have no means by which to improve that skill thanks to the new CBA – using any means necessary to bring him down. The reason I mention this is that in each of the two Detroit games I have watched so far, at least one defensive back tackling Johnson has tackled him at an awkward angle (usually grabbing him around the front of his shoulders and using their body weight to bring him down). I realize I cannot recommend owners drop him on their draft boards due to the way he is being tackled or my paranoia regarding it, but I will ask each of you to watch Detroit’s next preseason game and see if you feel my fears have any merit to them.

After suggesting most of the summer that Doug Martin had a great shot of being the best rookie runner in this class, I followed through this week. I recognize it is a bold move to rank him as highly as I currently have, but after watching the Bucs for a second time this preseason, I have little doubt Martin will be the lead back sooner than later. In no way am I suggesting LeGarrette Blount will be phased out at any point, but just like with Kansas City above, this backfield will enough touches to make two backs happy. The difference is that Martin should be more efficient as a runner than Blount AND receive the majority of passing-down work. Although Martin is a less explosive version of Ray Rice, the comparisons to the former pupil of HC Greg Schiano are apt. There’s no doubt Martin would be a late third-round fantasy option in most years, but as a healthy and talented RB in 2012 with a team committed to running the ball, Martin warrants second-round consideration and would be a steal in the third.

26-50: In light of making Dez Bryant as my No. 3 non-PPR receiver last week, I took a little time to re-evaluate the WR landscape. Ultimately, his “fall” from the initial Big Board has little to do with him and more to do with the obvious risk that comes along with his potential reward. It goes without saying that none of the six receivers ahead of him carry nearly as much risk as he does, so his drop is my admission that I ranked him too high before. While his potential off-field issues will continue to be a concern, his injury risk is less than the one that owners face with Andre Johnson and Hakeem Nicks, which makes his WR7 ranking much more palatable in my mind. If Bryant manages to play all 16 games this season, I believe this ranking will represent his fantasy floor.

Most of you know I have been recommending Brandon Lloyd for some time now. I mention him now as an example of just how deep the receiver position is now. I currently have Lloyd’s 15-game projection set at 960 yards and 10 touchdowns, putting him on pace for 1,024 yards and potentially 11 scores for the season. Yet, he is just my 15th-best receiver and the point could definitely be made that Jordy Nelson and Steve Smith belong in front of him, if not also Greg Jennings and Percy Harvin. Even with the explosive passing numbers in 2011, Lloyd’s 16-game projected fantasy point total of 168.4 would have put him in 11th place last season, which is a different way of saying that I expect the passing numbers to continue trending upward across the league. If you believe Lloyd can be a fantasy WR1 this year – as I do – it is just further confirmation that it is acceptable (and maybe even advisable) to wait until the 4th-5th round to grab your first receiver. If an owner can come out of the first three rounds with a solid RB-QB-RB trio, he/she should expect to land a pair of receivers like Lloyd, Smith, Demaryius Thomas or even Miles Austin – any two of which should keep owners very competitive at the position.

51-100: It probably goes without saying that Mike Wallace is to receivers what Jones-Drew is to running backs in the sense that we have a top 10 player at his position in contract limbo. Like MJD, there seems to be no concern about his conditioning should he report to camp in the near future. Unlike MJD, the likelihood that Wallace reports to camp soon appears to be much better. Still, until Wallace actually does make it to camp, I can’t justify ranking him ahead of Antonio Brown or the 28 other receivers I have in front of him. Unlike many fantasy owners, I do not buy into the notion that Brown is the receiver to own in Pittsburgh – especially in non-PPR leagues – based on the second half of last season. What I do know, however, is that between the time he has spent away from the offense (and the implementation of new OC Todd Haley’s schemes) and the Steelers’ early schedule, it is probably not a good idea to count on WR1 numbers from Wallace any time before October.

One of my favorite WR3 options before the season started, Denarius Moore is now on the verge of becoming a high-upside but injury-prone fantasy WR4. As often happens in the NFL, one man’s misfortune (in this case, Moore and his balky hamstring) leads to another man’s opportunity. While I highly doubt Moore will be losing his starting job at any point in the near future, his lack of a full preseason makes Darrius Heyward-Bey the clear top receiver in Oakland for now. Moore’s absence (as well as Jacoby Ford’s own injury) has also given impressive undrafted free agent Rod Streater and fifth-round rookie Juron Criner plenty of time to shine. Considering that Moore also had troubles staying healthy as a rookie, perhaps he needs to be viewed as a higher-upside version of Malcom Floyd for the time being.

101-175: If last weekend was any indication, Alshon Jeffery has a pretty fair shot of being the best rookie receiver in this class, along with Kendall Wright and maybe Justin Blackmon. In a balanced Bears’ offense where Jeffery is no better than the third option on most passing plays (behind Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte), I find it difficult to place him much higher on the list than I have him. Still, very few defenses will have a shot at defending him if he continues to use his big body the way he did against the Redskins. My best guess at this point is that Jeffery will be an inconsistent fantasy WR4 that will post 5-6 noteworthy games thanks to his likely red-zone contributions, but one look at his second-half schedule tells me that he could sneak into WR3 territory if has earned the trust of Jay Cutler by that point.

I’m not ready to push Austin Collie off either board quite yet, but his fourth concussion in 21 months raises serious concerns about his long-term health. Obviously, long-term health take priority over everything else, but issues such as Collie’s concussion history certainly affect fantasy projections as well. Maybe Collie returns in time for Week 1, but the lingering concern about yet another concussion makes him the same kind of risk that Sidney Rice and Kenny Britt are. It is his history with concussions that drops him exactly 50 spots and bumps Reggie Wayne up 14 spots from last week’s Big Board. On a related note, it seems pretty clear that Andrew Luck will allow two receivers to be relevant in fantasy right away, so if Collie – who appeared to be Luck’s favorite target – is unable to go, then it is time to consider Wayne a potential top 25 receiver once again and rookie LaVon Brazill as an interesting sleeper candidate with bigger-than-you’d-think upside.

Considering new OC Brian Schottenheimer’s track record with Dustin Keller, owners need to give Lance Kendricks at least one more chance. Like many others, I fooled myself into believing that Kendricks would lead a receiver-starved Rams passing offense as a rookie last season and was burned for it. Fast forward to this season and most fantasy owners will undoubtedly hold 2011 against any and all Rams players. Admittedly, putting Kendricks at No. 175 on both lists hardly qualifies as a bold move, but much of the blame for St. Louis’ woes last season can be placed on Josh McDaniels’ insistence that St. Louis use seven-step drops behind a porous offensive line, instead of the three- and five-step drops that helped Sam Bradford excel in 2010. The change back to the “old” philosophy in 2012 should make Bradford more comfortable and, by extension, help Kendricks overcome his drop-filled rookie campaign.

As promised, let’s pay our respects to the kickers and defense/special teams units that help us decide our fantasy fates each and every season…once again, these are 15-game projections.

 Kickers
Rk Player Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts XP FG
1 Stephen Gostkowski NE 28 1.32 9.4 141 60 27
2 Mason Crosby GB 27 0.80 8.7 130 58 24
3 Matt Bryant ATL 37 0.47 8.2 123 48 25
4 David Akers SF 37 0.42 8.1 122 41 27
5 Randy Bullock HOU 22 0.38 8.1 121 43 26
6 Sebastian Janikowski OAK 34 0.38 8.1 121 37 28
7 Matt Prater DEN 28 0.33 8.0 120 45 25
8 Dan Bailey DAL 24 0.28 7.9 119 44 25
9 Alex Henery PHI 25 0.09 7.7 115 43 24
10 Garrett Hartley NO 26 0.09 7.7 115 55 20
11 Robbie Gould CHI 29 0.09 7.7 115 37 26
12 Lawrence Tynes NYG 34 0.00 7.5 113 38 25
13 Jason Hanson DET 42 0.00 7.5 113 38 25
14 Rob Bironas TEN 34 0.14 7.5 112 43 23
15 Nate Kaeding SD 30 0.14 7.5 112 43 23
16 Billy Cundiff BAL 32 0.24 7.3 110 35 25
17 Rian Lindell BUF 35 0.28 7.3 109 40 23
18 Ryan Succop KC 25 0.28 7.3 109 40 23
19 Olindo Mare CAR 39 0.28 7.3 109 46 21
20 Josh Brown NYJ 33 0.42 7.1 106 31 25
21 Mike Nugent CIN 30 0.57 6.9 103 31 24
22 Steve Hauschka SEA 27 0.61 6.8 102 30 24
23 Connor Barth TB 26 0.66 6.7 101 38 21
24 Adam Vinatieri IND 39 0.66 6.7 101 38 21
25 Dan Carpenter MIA 26 0.66 6.6 99 30 23
26 Josh Scobee JAC 30 0.19 6.5 97 31 22
27 Blair Walsh MIN 22 0.94 6.2 87 27 20
28 Jay Feely ARI 36 1.04 6.1 91 34 19
29 Phil Dawson CLE 37 1.08 6.0 90 21 23
30 Shaun Suisham PIT 30 1.18 5.9 88 28 20
31 Neil Rackers WAS 37 1.23 5.8 87 24 21
32 Greg Zuerlein STL 24 1.27 5.7 86 32 18

And now the defenses…

Bonus determined by the following benchmarks:
10 points for shutout or held to 2 points
7 points if held from 3-6 points
4 points if held from 7-12 points
2 points if held from 13-16 points
1 points if held from 17-20 points
0 points if held from 21-28 points
-1 point if give up 29-34 points
-3 points if give up 35+ points

 Defense/Special Teams
Rk Team Value FPts/G FPts PA Sks INT Fum TD Bonus 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 49ers 2.12 11.3 169 237 45 20 13 24 34
2 Texans 1.23 10.0 150 246 44 21 11 18 24
3 Falcons 0.75 9.3 140 307 38 25 8 24 12
4 Packers 0.66 9.2 138 389 44 25 8 30 -2
5 Eagles 0.66 9.2 138 345 48 18 12 24 6
6 Bears 0.66 9.2 138 327 38 16 11 36 10
7 Bills 0.52 9.0 135 315 44 18 11 24 13
8 Chiefs 0.38 8.8 132 279 34 20 8 24 18
9 Steelers 0.19 8.5 128 242 40 14 10 12 28
10 Broncos 0.05 8.3 125 350 40 16 12 24 5
11 Lions 0.05 8.3 125 408 44 17 12 30 -7
12 Patriots 0.00 8.3 124 348 36 19 11 24 4
13 Giants 0.09 8.1 122 370 44 17 14 18 -2
14 Seahawks 0.33 7.8 117 311 33 17 9 18 14
15 Chargers 0.33 7.8 117 322 40 13 9 24 9
16 Jets 0.38 7.7 116 338 39 17 12 12 7
17 Ravens 0.52 7.5 113 273 31 16 10 12 18
18 Redskins 0.90 7.0 105 348 41 13 11 12 4
19 Cardinals 1.18 6.6 99 377 41 12 9 18 -2
20 Jaguars 1.23 6.5 98 330 33 13 10 12 7
21 Rams 1.37 6.3 95 378 38 13 8 18 -3
22 Vikings 1.46 6.2 93 419 46 8 13 12 -7
23 Cowboys 1.46 6.2 93 368 40 12 11 6 1
24 Bengals 1.46 6.2 93 337 35 9 11 12 6
25 Raiders 1.51 6.1 92 419 37 11 11 18 -7
26 Titans 1.56 6.1 91 389 34 12 9 18 -3
27 Browns 1.70 5.9 88 379 29 15 10 12 -3
28 Panthers 1.89 5.6 84 398 33 12 11 12 -7
29 Colts 1.98 5.5 82 433 34 10 11 18 -12
30 Bucs 2.40 4.9 73 417 27 7 9 18 -4
31 Saints 2.50 4.7 71 429 30 11 8 12 -9
32 Dolphins 2.83 4.3 64 443 30 11 7 6 -8

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.