I never meant to cause you any sorrow
I never meant to cause you any pain
I only wanted to one time to see you laughing
I only wanted to see you
Laughing in the purple rain
- Prince (from the song "Purple Rain")
For many, rain is depressing, not unlike the news of Prince Rogers
Nelson's passing earlier this year. Prince was a proud native
of Minnesota, which cannot seem to shake a much different kind
of sadness lately: the reality of losing so many key players so
early in a season in which it had Super Bowl aspirations.
As entertaining and enjoyable as fantasy football can be, it
can also be an extremely sobering hobby as well. While many of
the players' off-field indiscretions can be at times mindboggling,
I am referring only to what seems to happen at least once every
year on the field. Almost without fail, the injury epidemic spreads
like wildfire throughout the league without warning, often forcing
owners to go into scramble mode before they really even know what
kind of team they have. The epidemic does not concern itself with
a player's age, position or status; the only guarantee seems to
be is that it will strike at least once and leave teams - real
and fantasy - in its wake to pick up the pieces.
Last week was one of those kind of weeks in the NFL.
Using my last updated PPR Big Board that I built for my drafts
with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football, already nearly a quarter of the
players in the top 20 percent (10 of my first 41 players) have
yet to play, left last week due to injury or already out for the
season. Much of the carnage came this past weekend: Adrian
Peterson, Brandon
Marshall (although he missed relatively little time in Week
2 with what looked to be a devastating injury at first), Sammy
Watkins (aggravation of his foot injury?), Donte
Moncrief, Doug
Martin and Danny
Woodhead. Extending past my top 41, other highly drafted players
to suffer injuries of varying significance in Week 2 included
the likes of Thomas
Rawls, Arian
Foster, Jonathan
Stewart, Rashad
Jennings, Ameer
Abdullah, Doug
Baldwin and Tyler
Lockett.
Many skeptics and/or critics will suggest this wave of injuries
happens every year. (They're right, thus the introduction…)
However, observing a problem and figuring out how to survive or
even thrive in the aftermath are two very different things.
As a result, this week's column will take on a bit of a waiver-wire
column theme, simply because two weeks into a season is rarely
enough time to convince owners - especially those in some highly
competitive or high-stakes leagues - to seriously begin trade
talks. (As always, it depends on the league. For example, September
trades are very rare in the bulk of my leagues.) The difference
is going to be I will go into a bit more detail (shocker) and
predict how these injuries will affect other playmakers on the
team as well. I'm going to focus primarily on the ones I believe
will have some kind of impact going forward, meaning players such
as Jimmy
Garoppolo (Tom
Brady will return in Week 5), Doug
Baldwin and Tyler
Lockett (both are expected to play Week 3) will not make the
cut. We already knew Watkins' foot could be an issue when Buffalo
eased him along as long as it did in the preseason. He is expected
to play through his soreness, however, so I have elected to leave
him out of the discussion as well.
The ripple effect of Adrian Peterson's
knee injury could lead to RB2 value for Jerick McKinnon.
Moving forward: Although I can't
imagine too many people were hoping Peterson's potential final
season in Minnesota would end this way, there are plenty of folks
who have been patiently waiting for McKinnon to take on a more
substantial role. They're going to get that chance now, even if
Asiata receives a few more touches than anyone outside of the
Minnesota coaching staff wants to see him get. As we saw in Week
2, the Vikings are prepared to take on a more balanced approach
if necessary as opposed to the run-heavy attack we saw in 2015.
Peterson's absence means defenses are probably going to play the
Vikings more straight-up for now, meaning Stefon
Diggs can probably expect more safety help than he has seen
in his brief NFL career. The loss of LT Matt Kalil - although
he has not played well for some time - further increases the possibility
that opponents will attempt to take away Diggs first and foremost.
Minnesota's most likely counter to Kalil's departure will be to
utilize TE Kyle
Rudolph more as a blocker, especially given QB Sam
Bradford's durability issues
As such, I fully expect Norv Turner to eventually shift to more
of a quick-hitting, short-passing game in which slot receiver
Adam Thielen, McKinnon and Asiata see plenty of opportunities.
I'm probably one of the few who believe McKinnon could eventually
get a shot at taking over as the featured back, but his success
will have to come quick and extend over multiple weeks because
the Vikings trust and like Asiata. While some want to compare
this situation to the one Minnesota encountered during Peterson's
suspension in 2014, McKinnon is no longer a rookie making the
transition from FCS option quarterback and has proven himself
to be a viable threat in this league, certainly as a receiver
anyway. Starting out, a 60/40 or 65/35 timeshare seems like a
reasonable expectation. This time around, however, if McKinnon
thrives and Asiata does not, I don't think the Vikings will hesitate
to expand McKinnon's duties and leave Asiata to function as nothing
more than a goal-line back who will eventually fight for non-red
zone scraps with Hillman. McKinnon has low-end RB2 upside assuming
Turner is willing to bend his vertical passing game a bit as I
suggested earlier. His floor is probably a matchup-based flex
if Minnesota remains stubborn with a committee approach. As if
it wasn’t clear from above, I expect Rudolph to take the
biggest hit in fantasy value, followed by Diggs and then Bradford.
The good news here is Diggs should see a slight bump in overall
targets if Rudolph stays in to block more often, so he could still
very well keep moving towards cementing his WR2 status.
Moving forward: Given how strongly
Gordon has come out of the gates, he is going to be given every
chance to carry the load, or at least as much as San Diego will
allow it to happen. The Chargers haven't had a true feature back
in the Woodhead era and their signing of McCluster earlier this
week suggests they like the idea of having a "space" back remain
a big part of their offense. Still, 20 touches for Gordon going
forward should become the norm. McCluster, who is already quite
familiar with OC Ken Whisenhunt from their days together in Tennessee,
makes sense as the player most likely to pick up part of Woodhead's
receiving slack, although I highly doubt he will be see more than
a handful of snaps inside the red zone - unlike his predecessor.
Farrow is an interesting stash in dynasty leagues and a candidate
to make McCluster somewhat irrelevant down the road, but it is
unlikely he comes into redraft value this year barring an injury
to Gordon. Then again, given San Diego's recent luck with injuries,
that may be enough reason to pick up Farrow now. Losing Woodhead
puts even more onus on Travis
Benjamin, Antonio
Gates and Tyrell
Williams to carry the passing game, while rookie Hunter
Henry will probably be fast-tracked into the offensive game
plan over the next couple of weeks.
Moving forward: Much like McKinnon, owners have been waiting
for a while to see what Sims could do in a more expansive role.
The good news is Tampa Bay doesn't have to change its offense.
Also working in Sims' favor is that he is an all-purpose back
and the best runner and receiver of the remaining healthy bodies
in the backfield. The bad news is Tampa Bay faces the Rams, Broncos
and Panthers before the bye, after which time Martin is expected
to return. With that said, a hamstring "strain" that
carries a three-week period of recovery with it is a pretty significant
strain, so this may not be the only time Martin is going to be
sidelined by either this injury or one in which he hurts himself
trying to compensate for it. HC Dirk Koetter let it be known in
the offseason he believes Sims can be a featured back and it seems
likely he'll get his chance to operate in that fashion since Rodgers
hasn't proven to be anything more than a league-average complementary
back, although he did play for Koetter in Atlanta. To that end,
Rodgers told ESPN's Jenna Laine on Wednesday (Sept. 21): "All
I know is, when Chuck gets tired, that's when I'm gonna go in.
So if he (doesn't) get tired, I probably won't go in." While
Laine noted Rodgers laughed after the first part of the statement,
it's a good bet he's not far off from telling the truth. Whereas
McKinnon is a bit of a dice roll as a RB2 at the moment, Sims
was already on that borderline in PPR leagues prior to Martin's
injury. Given the level of competition he'll face over the next
few weeks, his short-term battlefield promotion probably won't
do much to spike his fantasy value. Thankfully, Sims is as adept
as a receiver as he is as a runner, so a handful of dump-offs
plus 40-50 yards rushing is probably all he will need to be a
solid every-week starter until Martin returns. That kind of weekly
expectation was the norm for him in a part-time role towards the
end of last season, so it is perfectly reasonable to expect a
repeat of that now.
Moving forward: Much like McKinnon and Asiata, Riddick and Washington
figure to have fantasy value now for the remainder of the year.
Unfortunately for Detroit fantasy owners, Riddick is a much less
talented version of McKinnon and Washington hasn't been around
long enough to prove he is worthy of the same kind of trust Asiata
has earned, even if he is a better overall player. In short, this
is one of those rare situations in which a committee approach
is not only a good solution, but also the right solution. There
will be those that tell you that Riddick is the new No. 1 runner
for the Lions, but I can easily see Washington absorbing Abdullah's
role sooner than later while also keeping his goal-line responsibilities.
In the short term, Riddick is the player of the two to own and
Detroit's offense will almost certainly be even more pass-heavy
than it has been already (80:47 pass-to-run ratio) in order to
cater to Riddick's strengths as well as its solid receiving corps.
Golden Tate has pretty much been an extension of the running game
for most of his time with the Lions, so he could see a slight
bump in targets. The same could be said for Anquan Boldin as well.
Looking down the road (and assuming Abdullah is done for the season),
I would fully expect Washington to lead the team in carries and
serve as a mini-LeGarrette Blount while Riddick moves into the
same kind of Dion Lewis role of sorts. (Need I remind you Detroit's
new general manager - Bob Quinn - came over from New England?)
Moving forward: Nearly seven days after one of the scariest "sprained
knee" injuries most of us have ever seen, we still don't
really have an official diagnosis on Brandon Marshall. HC Todd
Bowles refuted reports his top receiver has a sprained MCL early
this week, but the Jets placed him on Wednesday's injury list
with a knee and foot injury. He has yet to practice, but that
isn't all that uncommon for a veteran player of Marshall's status
who could use some time to heal. A DNP on Thursday (Sept. 22)
would be the first real sign Bowles thinks he will be a game-time
decision. For the sake of looking ahead, let's assume he misses
the trip to Kansas City in order to give him roughly 2 1/2 weeks
to recover. In such a scenario, it would be reasonable to believe
Decker would be a near-lock for 10 targets and the same probably
goes for Enunwa. Given Matt Forte's workload through two weeks,
he's unlikely to see more touches, so Bilal Powell could play
more of a role than he has so far.
Moving forward: Dorsett would seem to be the biggest beneficiary
here, but I'm not sure he takes all that big of a leap given that
he is a bit of a T.Y. Hilton clone. Hilton, who is already averaging
11.5 targets thus far, is already Andrew Luck's most trusted weapon
and could see that number swell to 13 or 14 on a fairly regular
basis. Moncrief's absence leaves a huge void for a big and physical
receiver - something Dorsett, Bray and Rogers cannot fill - so
Luck could focus his attention even more on TEs Dwayne Allen and
Jack Doyle. Why is that a big deal? Indianapolis ranks near the
bottom of the league in three-wide sets so far, which means the
Colts have already been giving significant playing time to Allen
AND Doyle at the same time. Moncrief's injury should not only
lock both players into even more snaps, but their presence will
be even more necessary now in order to move the ball over the
middle of the field. Both players figure to benefit in fantasy
as a result, and it wouldn't be terribly surprising if Frank Gore
sees more action in the short term, especially considering the
questionable defenses of San Diego, Jacksonville and Chicago are
next up on the Colts' schedule.
Moving forward: Remember the good
'ole days when Ajayi was going to be one of the few feature backs
in the league? Yeah, that's not going to happen, even if Foster
sits out this week versus the Browns. Somewhat surprisingly, it
was Ajayi who starred as a receiver last week, while Drake ran
it in for a score from 7 yards out. The Dolphins have attempted
only 36 runs as a team thus far, 11 of which belong to QB Ryan
Tannehill. In other words, an investment in the Miami backfield
requires a belief the team will do something it has not yet done
yet (commit to the run) with personnel ill-suited to do it (C
Mike Pouncey may not play Week 3, while a college tackle and former
NFL tackle are manning the fort at guard) with a player it doesn't
seem to trust (Ajayi) and another that can't seem to stay healthy
(Drake). For what it is worth, Drake probably has the highest
floor of the two simply because the Dolphins can be expected to
throw all day against the Browns, and the rookie was taken in
the third round primarily because of his abilities to make plays
in the passing game. If/when Foster is sidelined again for more
than a week, don't be surprised if Williams or Isaiah
Pead begin to emerge as a low-end flex option.
Moving forward: An absence from one of the game's few true feature
backs seems like it should always be considered a big deal, but
that really isn't the case here. Volume is not a problem in Carolina,
as Panthers' RBs have totaled 57 touches, including 50 carries.
However, meaningful touches are a problem. When Cam Newton isn't
calling his own number at the goal line, he's feeding Kelvin Benjamin.
In other words, if Stewart isn't all that valuable with his workload,
it is extremely unlikely Artis-Payne and Whittaker will change
that splitting the workload. The Carolina offense should be expected
to remain exactly the same, except for the possibility that Newton
runs the ball slightly more often on read-option plays.
Moving forward: By all accounts, Rawls will play this week. That
is about the only thing working in his favor at the moment. Michael
is averaging five yards per carry, while the rest of the team's
backs have combined for 23 yards on 22 carries. Likewise, C-Mike
is averaging 2.32 yards after contact (fourth among 45 qualifying
players), while Thomas Rawls is averaging 0.21 (last). Although
Rawls hasn't come close to looking like his 2015 self, owners
need to cut him a bit of slack; the Central Michigan product missed
most of camp and the preseason and saw only two carries in the
final exhibition contest. Michael has been so good, however, that
Seattle should seriously consider letting Rawls continue working
his way back. There's a very good chance the Seahawks decide to
opt for a "hot-hand" approach at the position (the mere
typing of that phrase bothers me more than you will ever know),
but if I had to bet on one of the two right now, my money would
be on Michael. Regardless of how Seattle chooses to utilize playing
time in the backfield, it won't affect the other playmakers on
the team nearly as much as Russell Wilson's ankle or the quality
of the offensive line. As long as either one or both are in the
shape they are currently, the entire offense might be compromised.
Moving forward: Based on Week 2 usage, it appears new HC Ben
McAdoo is more confident about Vereen's ability to be a lead back
- at least over a short period of time in the event of injury
to Jennings - than he is in the player who supposedly won the
backup job in the preseason (Darkwa). As expected, Vereen mostly
disappointed with a hefty workload in what was supposed to be
a plus-matchup. Like many other teams across the league in recent
years, the Giants' run-blocking has been sub-par at best early
this season, especially considering the competition (Dallas and
New Orleans). Jennings is expected to play with his thumb/hand
wrapped this week against Washington, but upcoming games against
Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore and Los Angeles don't exactly
scream huge run-game production, so expect a heavy dose of Eli
Manning, Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz.
While Perkins has been inactive for the first two weeks and is
a longshot to produce this season, there are few players with
his talent that have relatively very little standing in their
way. Stashing Perkins is only for owners in the deepest of leagues
with deep benches at the moment, but it is a move that could pay
off in a big way come fantasy playoff time.
Moving forward: Cleveland has been called "The Factory of
Sadness" by some in the media and it is hard to argue with
that assessment even if the Browns have taken the novel approach
of turning over their roster in order to accelerate their rebuilding
project. Just over a week after facing the quarterback it could
have had at No. 2 had it chosen to stay at that spot in the draft
(Carson Wentz), Cleveland's actual first-round pick broke his
hand in practice. Coleman's outlook was already pretty grim for
the foreseeable future since rookie Cody Kessler doesn't possess
near the arm strength Josh McCown or even Robert Griffin III does,
robbing the rookie of his potential to create huge plays downfield.
While his status is up in the air at the moment, it seems logical
to believe Coleman is going to miss a few weeks, which creates
an opening for Pryor to take over as the lead receiver for two
games before presumably passing the baton over to Gordon. The
problem is all the players mentioned so far are better vertical
threats than possession receivers, which doesn't bode well for
their ability to produce with Kessler. Thus, it seems very likely
Hawkins and Duke Johnson can make the strongest cases to be somewhat
relevant in fantasy while McCown recovers from his shoulder injury.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.