Over the past few weeks, we've discussed rookies,
the most recent free agent
class, the rumor
mill, analyzed how players
performed inside the 20, 10 and 5, and dissected target
shares. It is now time to begin the process of doing something
with that information. While some of it will come into play more
when the Big Boards are released in about a month, I am definitely
looking forward to getting a better idea where I stand on a number
of players this year.
Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each
of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC East. I have color-coded
the matchups for the full season. I think it is essential for
owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half
of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they
select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule
analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player
on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific
attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those
attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make
their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. It's not
as complex as it sounds and, after working out the kinks last
year, I think it will lead to the best set of Big Boards yet.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
reasonable in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than league-average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.
For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors
I consider, take a look below at the Miami Dolphins’ projections.
Jarvis
Landry does not have a single “red” on his schedule because:
1) players like the New York Jets’ Darrelle
Revis and Arizona Cardinals' Patrick
Peterson rarely move into the slot. Although Landry's slot
usage figures to go down this year, he still figures to see plenty
of snaps there. While I do think highly of corners who will play
the slot on a regular basis (like the San Diego Chargers' Casey
Hayward), I'm not sure I'm willing to bet on any of them shutting
him down. As much as he figures to move around the formation (and
everything I'm saying about Landry goes for DeVante
Parker as well), it would misleading to suggest any corner
is going to see Landry (or Parker) line across from him all day
long. As such, he gets a yellow and not a red. In other cases
(which I will discuss as we move along with these projections),
players like Seattle Seahawks CB Richard
Sherman play on only one side of the ball while virtually
every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the
formation. In still other cases, the quality of the quarterback
(Geno
Smith, for example) can take a potential green matchup and
turn into a neutral one. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes
into the color-coding system.
Other important notes:
- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a
road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of
the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by
each player will be that player’s age as of September 1,
2016.
- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change.
In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words,
don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are
different from the ones you see here.
Key to the table below:
PAvg - Points per
game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth
six points. NAvg - Points per game in non-PPR
leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points. PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
The Bills' backfield is a mess off the field (Karlos Williams has
already been suspended and Jonathan Williams may not be far behind),
so much could change above between now and Opening Day. As it stands
at the moment, McCoy is poised for a huge early-season workload
and may need it, especially if doesn't visit the end zone more than
the five times he did a season ago. Game flow could easily work
against the running game in each of his team's first four games
as well, as each defense should be among the most stout in the NFL
and each offense has the potential to jump out to an early lead.
I hesitate to say the rest of the schedule opens up for McCoy after
the first month, but New England and Seattle (Weeks 8-9) are the
only defenses after Week 4 that would give me some pause. St. Louis
(Week 5) has the defense to bottle him up, but its offense isn't
going to force Buffalo to go hurry-up for most of the second half
in all likelihood. Pittsburgh (Week 14) has the offense to make
the Bills scramble, but that is a contest I think McCoy will need
to do some damage in the passing game anyway.
If Watkins is healthy down the stretch and Taylor is as willing
to feed him the ball as he was in the second half last year, then
fantasy owners are probably going to want to invest. On the surface,
it doesn't seem as though the Bills' duo should enjoy such a strong
finish, but Pittsburgh could struggle to field one cornerback
that will play at a league-average level, while Cleveland CB Joe
Haden really hasn't lived up to the reputation he established
about three years ago due mostly to injury. In fact, the best
cornerbacks Watkins (or Woods, for that matter) might face in
the fantasy playoffs could be Miami CBs Byron Maxwell, who hasn't
proven much outside of Seattle's Cover 3, and rookie Xavien Howard.
The New York Jets (Week 2), Arizona (Week 3), Cincinnati (Week
11) and, you guessed it, Oakland (Week 13) probably would scare
me the most if I own Taylor and/or Watkins, with New England (Weeks
4 and 8) also likely to slow down both players. I was initially
high on Clay as a high-end TE2, but I'm not so sure after this.
The fact he does so much of his damage within 10 yards of the
line of scrimmage should allow him to get his targets when Taylor
needs to unload the ball quickly, but Buffalo's run-oriented approach
puts a hard cap on his ability to push 60 catches (unless, of
course, Taylor and/or OC Greg Roman put a higher priority on him
than they did last year).
Oh joy, another backfield circus! In all likelihood, the likely
starting running back no later than midseason just joined the roster
(Foster). Be that as it may, Miami's lead running back - whomever
it may be - is poised for a fair amount of success this year simply
because new HC Adam Gase is now in charge and figures to operate
one of the more up-tempo offenses in the league. While that obviously
bodes well for Tannehill & Co., it should also mean more volume
for the backs. Unfortunately, the Dolphins are in for some tough
sledding (and I'm projecting Buffalo to have only a slightly better
rush defense than it did last year, or else the slate would look
even more menacing). Even with what should be a much better offensive
line, I can't imagine Miami sustaining its running game against
any of its five "red opponents". Even if I'm only right
about two of Ajayi or Foster's four yellows, it still means either
one will be hard-pressed to be better than average in half of his
games. Further consider Foster is less than a year removed from
an injury (Achilles) that usually requires two years to fully heal
and known to limit explosiveness, Ajayi's knee was the main reason
he slid into the sixth round of the draft in 2015 and there are
plenty of red flags just with the two players most likely to start.
Drake may or may not steal half of the snaps on passing downs and
also has his own significant injury history. It's hard to imagine
a scenario in which any one of the three are worth the trouble in
fantasy.
It's easy to be skeptical about Miami. It has been well-documented
Tannehill is not a good deep-ball thrower and the team has consistently
underachieved throughout his four-year career. Fair enough. I'm
going to implore owners to take one more shot on him, however,
for two very important reasons: 1) Gase and 2) the reservoir of
talent at the receiver position. Let's review Gase's recent track
record: as a QB coach, Tim Tebow was a usable fantasy quarterback
and led Denver to the playoffs. Two years later, he was out of
the league. In his first year as the Broncos' play-caller, 37-year-old
Peyton Manning sets the NFL passing touchdown and yardage marks.
In his second season as OC, Manning throws for his second-highest
yardage total and third-highest TD total. The next season, Manning
is considered washed-up and retires. In Gase's only season as
the play-caller in Chicago, mistake-prone Jay Cutler throws only
11 interceptions while matching his career high in yards per attempt
and setting a personal best in passer rating. That is quite the
resume and I'd argue Tannehill has the most talent (obviously
considering when in their careers he worked with the aforementioned
players) and Miami has a ton of young talent in its receiving
corps. The schedule doesn't start or end particularly well for
any member of the Dolphins' passing game outside of Landry, although
the volume I mentioned earlier should offset some of that, as
should Gase's willingness to move all of his receivers around.
Without sounding too simplistic, either Landry or Parker (if not
both) will have the upper hand on their primary matchup in just
about every game, meaning Tannehill should be a relatively stable
investment. The defense is still a work in progress, so game flow
might also work in the favor of the passing game. Unlike previous
years, Miami should have the ability this year to throw just about
as many haymakers offensively as any team in the league.
In what is becoming a recurring theme in this division, picking
an AFC running back who doesn't generate at least a third of his
value in the passing game is asking for trouble. New England caught
a break from the league by getting three home games while Brady
is serving his suspension and should have a solid defense, so negative
game flow might only be a concern in one of the first four games
(Week 1 at Arizona). Negative game flow actually isn't a bad thing
for Lewis, however, as he's a key part of the passing game whether
the Patriots are trailing by 14 or leading by 21, so he should be
mostly immune to the inconsistency that figures to dog Blount and,
to a lesser extent, Brown. Working in Blount's favor - and all of
what follows assumes his hip will not be an issue by Opening Week,
a big if - will be New England's heavy use of two-tight sets and
the fact both Gronkowski and Bennett are very good blockers, so
the 29-year-old Oregon product has that going for him. If Blount
is a no-go, I fully expect an even split of backfield work between
Lewis and Brown. In such a case, I could easily see Brown emerging
as a more consistent RB3 than I think Blount can be. With that said,
the Patriots' backs aren't going to catch many breaks after the
bye and could conceivably air it out 70 percent of the time during
the fantasy playoffs.
There's not really much to discuss at quarterback, other than
I feel I've projected Garoppolo's ceiling (heavily influenced
by expected game flow and my judgement that New England will struggle
to run the ball during Brady's suspension, I might add). Until
there is reason to believe otherwise, I will no longer project
red matchups for Brady, who may have the best supporting cast
he's had in five years and will surely benefit from the Pats'
ability to play two tight ends the opposition will struggle to
contain. Based solely on last year's fantasy points allowed to
the tight end position, the Patriots' schedule is treacherous.
Of course, Gronk is not your average tight end and Bennett will
probably see less attention down the middle of the field than
he has since his breakout 2012 season, so I'm not projecting a
red matchup for him either. He should be on the field a ton and
will be one of Brady's top three targets in all likelihood, so
I would not hesitate considering him a low-end TE1 in 12-team
leagues. With two foot surgeries in less than a year, Edelman
is about as high-risk, high-reward as they come in PPR league.
Obviously, if he is healthy, he isn't going to have much to worry
about in the Patriots' slot-centric, quick-hitting passing game.
Amendola is being projected as a half-outside receiver/half-slot
receiver above, but owners - especially those who draft Edelman
- should think long and hard about taking him late in hopes he
can be a midseason lottery ticket (assuming Hogan doesn't make
him expendable in camp first). Hogan is being projected above
as a pure outside receiver, although he has far fewer injury concerns
than the first two and offers rare size in the slot. It should
come as no surprise if he ends up being a key part of fantasy
championship teams, assuming neither Edelman nor Amendola can
last the season.
There's little doubt the absence of Ryan Fitzpatrick will have a
negative impact on the running game (which is reflected in my projections),
although I'm reasonably certain Forte will hold his own regardless.
His biggest roadblock to fantasy success could actually from his
own teammates, as Powell needs to be considered a real threat to
his upside as a receiver and Robinson a real threat to vulture touchdowns
inside the 5. Unlike the rest of the division, however, Forte's
most difficult matchups are not bunched together, so perhaps he
can maintain some degree of weekly consistency. Like Dion Lewis
above, negative game flow shouldn't affect him as much as most backs,
so he should produce like a RB2 at worst most weeks so long as he's
getting 15 touches. Seattle (Week 4) is the only truly scary matchup
for Forte, since games against Pittsburgh and Arizona (Weeks 5-6)
could end up being shootouts. Again, owners need to concern themselves
with the likelihood Powell and Robinson are going to make Forte
more of a glorified lead back than anything else; OC Chan Gailey's
offense will give him plenty of chances to score fantasy points
should he received 60 percent of the touches in this backfield.
Geno supporters - the few of them out there and assuming he is
the Week 1 starter - will have their loyalty tested early, as
the Jets will face four of the top seven defenses versus fantasy
quarterbacks from a season ago. He might catch a break in Week
3 if the Chiefs still don't have OLB Justin Houston at 100 percent
or miss CB Sean Smith (Oakland) more than most expect, but the
Bengals (Week 1), Seahawks (Week 4) and Cardinals (Week 6) should
all be very good once again. After Week 6, however, the schedule
lightens up considerably, so Fitzpatrick or Smith (yes, you're
reading that correctly) could easily emerge into a low-end weekly
starter in deeper leagues. Marshall and Decker project to be target
hogs once again and really don't have much in the way of competition
for those targets, outside of Forte and Powell. Both receivers
move around the formation enough - and are so central to the game
plan - that I've chosen to hand out only one red between them
(assuming the Cardinals ask CB Patrick Peterson to shadow Marshall
in Week 6). The outlook for both receivers should remain much
the same as last year if Amaro doesn't make a big impression in
camp. New York tight ends caught a whopping eight passes last
year, and that is unlikely to change much unless Amaro gets off
the roster bubble and has a strong preseason.
Much has been made about the Cowboys' offensive line and the team's
desire to return to the run-heavy attack that propelled Dallas into
the playoffs in 2014. Here are some facts: the 'Boys ranked eighth
in KC Joyner's good run-blocking (GRB) metric at 39.8 percent (GRB
is roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush
attempt) and sixth in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders
despite the fact they had a supposedly washed-up back in McFadden,
played three-quarters of the season without their "franchise
quarterback" and nearly half of the season without Bryant to
take defenders out of the box. The same line that achieved those
feats last year and 80 percent of the line that paved the way for
DeMarco Murray in 2014 is back this year. Make of that what you
will. The Giants have the personnel to become the best defense in
this division, but it is too much to ask it to come together in
Week 1. I don't expect Chicago, Green Bay or Philadelphia to have
poor run defenses either, but I don't think any of them can be expected
to contain all 20 of the carries I expect Elliott to average in
those games. Pittsburgh and Baltimore (Weeks 10-11) are the only
matchups that give me some pause, although I feel confident in his
ability to persevere in those contests since negative game flow
isn't as much of a concern for three-down backs like him. I fully
expect McFadden to steal a few snaps here and there so Dallas can
avoid running Elliott into the ground. Short of injury, however,
I don't see much of anything - particularly the schedule - keeping
Zeke for running for at least 1,200 yards (and that's a conservative
estimate).
Many are projecting the NFC East to be a high-scoring division
this season. While I believe each of the other three other teams
to have a chance to be good on defense at some point in 2016,
I don't believe any of them will be any better than average right
off the bat. As such, I see very little resistance for Romo or
Bryant all the way through. I don't expect new Washington CB Josh
Norman to shadow Bryant in either matchup (Weeks 2 and 12), and
there aren't really any other elite corners on the slate that
should give owners pause outside of perhaps Detroit CB Darius,
so each player's biggest hurdle this year is staying healthy.
Williams will have the occasional blow-up game he usually does,
but I see no reason why he will enjoy more sustained success this
year than he has before. My opinion about this team fielding one
fantasy-relevant receiver could change if Butler ends up getting
the nod at some point, but I have my doubts Dallas will be that
bold. Much like the rest of his teammates, the schedule doesn't
appear to be an issue for Witten either. With Bryant and Elliott
drawing so much attention, Witten's patented 5-to-10 yard out
or hook routes should be available as often as OC Scott Linehan
wants to call it. Another 70-catch season is definitely possible,
and he's probably going to find the end zone more than the three
times he did last year.
For a team hoping it will have a running game to go along with what
is expected to be a dynamic passing attack, the Giants couldn't
have asked for a much better way to start the season. Jennings ended
last season in much the same way he started 2014, but age (31) is
now working against him. A number of Big Apple-based media outlets
have Jennings pegged as the clear lead horse in this backfield,
but one has to wonder why the team added so many bodies (Perkins,
Bobby Rainey and Marshaun Coprich among them) if the goal was to
simply fill in the back of the depth chart. Assuming Jennings starts
Week 1 as expected, he could be a strong sell-high candidate after
the first month of the season is complete. His road hits a speedbump
right before the bye and doesn't ease up much after that, so November
could be about the time Perkins starts getting a long look. While
none of the second-half opponents figure to feature an impenetrable
run defense, I believe the combination of an average run-blocking
unit and HC Ben McAdoo's preference toward the passing game will
make Jennings hard to rely on as anything more than a RB3. Perkins
was one of the most elusive runners in the draft (Pro Football Focus
rated him first in rushing grade and elusive rating) and is very
adept as a receiver, which sounds just like the kind of back New
York should be plugging into an offense that will driving defenses
crazy defending Beckham and Shepard.
Relying on Manning was almost always a scary proposition under
former HC Tom Coughlin prior to McAdoo's arrival, mostly because
he strived for offensive balance. Under McAdoo, Eli has been a
pretty consistent QB1 week in and week out. There's no reason
to expect that to change with the former OC running the show,
the addition of a polished route-runner like Shepard and a running
game led by an aging Jennings. Volume is going to be working in
Manning's favor again this year too. Not only does New York luck
out and face Washington (most notably, CB Josh Norman) once during
the fantasy schedule, but Slay is also the only other corner I
feel has a shot to stick with Bryant. Minnesota (Week 4) and Cincinnati
(Week 10) each have the depth in the defensive backfield to slow
this offense down, but all that will likely do is lead to more
targets for Beckham. OBJ's jaw-dropping talent helps his explain
why his line is mostly the color of money, but the fact of the
matter is that he is nearly impossible to defend for more than
3-4 seconds. I'm going to take some more time before finalizing
the line for Shepard, who will probably be in the slot almost
as much as he is outside. While the lack of green now may surprise
some, he'll be one of the players I watch with a close eye during
the preseason. I have no doubt he'll do well, but there are some
minor details I want to see before I turn most of his neutral
matchups into green ones. Everything I just said about the rookie
could apply to Cruz as well, although for a much different reason.
Can he make it through camp and/or show any kind of explosiveness?
I have my doubts. If Cruz succumbs to injury once again, Davis
becomes an interesting flyer in very deep leagues if he can follow
up on his spring hype and bypass Harris. While I have Tye projected
to start off slow, I fully expect him to beat out Donnell and
be a dark-horse TE1 in 12-team-or-larger leagues. While I've accounted
for the possibility of a timeshare between the two (Donnell is
not a good blocker), it stands to reason only one tight end will
see the field on a regular basis since the Giants figure to utilize
a three-wide set as their base formation. Shepard's presence will
keep Tye from carrying over his second-half production from last
year, but 65 catches is not out of the realm of possibility in
this offense for a full-time tight end with Manning as his quarterback.
Fans and owners who got used to the pace and volume of a Chip Kelly
will have to rely on a return to form from the offensive line (going
back to Kelly's first year in Philly in 2013) and efficiency in
2016. It's not out of the question for it to happen, as LT Jason
Peters, C Jason Kelce and RT Lane Johnson are still around. RG Brandon
Brooks should be an upgrade as well, while Celek is also a good
blocker. With that said, it will be important for the defense to
play up to its potential because the passing game lacks the weapons
to go toe-to-toe with some of the top offenses it will see on the
schedule. Mathews' most immediate concern, however, should be Smallwood.
While Mathews is a good receiver out of the backfield, it would
be hard to understand why new HC Doug Pederson would use his more
than on early downs, especially when durability is already a concern.
Otherwise, why was Smallwood drafted and Sproles kept? I have Mathews
projected to receive 55.8 percent of the team's touches through
three weeks; if he can maintain that kind of workload all season,
he should be a fine RB3 option. Why is that? This offense figures
to be pretty conservative, but it can only stay that way as long
as the team doesn't fall behind quickly. (Thus, why it is key for
the defense to play well.) The Eagles don’t face any overly
daunting run defenses until the second half of the season, but most
of the yellows on the backs' schedules are teams that project to
have a decent run defense, an offense that can score enough points
to force Philly out of its comfort zone or both.
At first glance, the passing game chart above looks like it was
created by the same people that made the border for this jersey.
There's not a lot of reason to be excited about the point-scoring
potential of this offense, if only because Bradford cannot be
counted on to last a season and none of the receivers boast the
kind of run-after-catch ability that can make up for its conservative
and slow-paced nature. Bradford & Co. should be able to get
off to a decent start from an efficiency standpoint, but there
are no shortage of difficult matchups thereafter. Matthews is
the only receiver I'm going to give a chance to succeed, but much
of his potential upside depends on if he can adjust to becoming
a full-time outside receiver as opposed to the slot he was under
Kelly. (He's another one to watch in preseason.) The slate looks
much less challenging for Ertz and Celek, and that may end up
being where the fantasy value in this offense lies. Ertz may have
had the quietest 75-catch season by a tight end in recent memory
and has been labeled as a bit of a disappointment because he doesn't
find the end zone all that much. But is that really all his fault?
Perhaps Pederson will take the time he spent working with Travis
Kelce and put it to good use with Ertz. No, they aren't the same
type of tight end, but just like Kelce in Kansas City before Jeremy
Maclin arrived, Ertz is the best and biggest weapon the Eagles
have now (along with Celek).
It's not hard to understand why people aren't sure what to make
of Jones; he was supposed to take over the backfield after exploding
for 146 total yards and two touchdowns against the vaunted Rams'
defense in Week 2, except he didn't. Instead, the world got to learn
about his ball security issues the next week. He had another blow-up
game against the woeful Saints' defense two months later, but Washington
had already made the change from being a ball-control team to one
led by the upstart Cousins. Still, Jones has a clear path to early-down,
passing-down and goal-line work this year, which is more than can
be said about 20-25 other starting running backs around the league.
As such, the negative game script that could work against the rushing
attack in early games against Pittsburgh, Dallas or the New York
Giants (Weeks 1-3) isn't as big of a concern, and the same can really
be said for the majority of other yellow games on his schedule.
I'm not sure Jones is good enough (or HC Jay Gruden is committed
enough to getting his back regular touches) at this point to look
good in any of his red matchups, but owners aren't expecting him
to do that either by drafting him in the mid-fifth round. The run
up to the fantasy playoffs and the actual fantasy postseason isn't
going to be a particularly easy for Jones either, but this is where
it is important for him to hold off Thompson or Marshall and remain
on the field on passing downs. Jones' projections are inflated above
because the running game will have two of its best matchups in September,
but I think the schedule allows him to be a quality RB2 more often
than not.
The Redskins may not have an elite wide receiver, but they have
enough good ones to overwhelm most of their opponents this year,
which is obviously good news for Cousins. There are a handful
of yellow matchups that could be white and vice versa, but no
defense outside of Arizona (Week 13) should have enough personnel
to bottle up the passing game for four quarters. The first half
looks particularly appealing, although owners need to remember
Jackson and Reed are not the most durable players. The back end
of the schedule is slightly more challenging but hardly daunting.
Reed appears to have a great shot at starting fast, but the true
level of difficulty in his schedule is laid out in Paul's line,
so I'm giving Reed a pass in a number of matchups due to his talent.
Nevertheless, a healthy Reed should be able to rival his numbers
from last year. Jackson's slate nearly mirrors Cousins, which
means he should be good for another year of touchdown-dependent
WR3 production. Crowder's emergence as a slot weapon has essentially
made Garcon a non-factor in fantasy, so the run of difficult second-half
matchups plus Cousins' preference for Jackson and Reed make both
players WR5 options at best. If Doctson can beat out Garcon at
some point this season, he's got a realistic shot at fantasy relevancy
since he would seem to be the second-best red-zone threat on the
team after Reed. The reason no green appears on his slate is because
I'm not sure Washington really knows what it has in him yet, which
makes projecting him for anything more than a red-zone specialist
difficult to do.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
