Former head coach Jerry Glanville famously said nearly 30 years
ago the NFL stands for "Not for Long". Even though he
was talking to a referee about a questionable call and coach's
ability to hold on to his job under such circumstances when he
coined the phrase, "not for long" also sometimes applies
to the shelf life of fantasy projections made in July. We learned
that lesson again this past week when it became public Le'Veon
Bell will likely open the season serving a four-game suspension
and Josh Gordon was conditionally reinstated. The best part? Bell
is apparently
quite confident he will not miss any games, while Gordon knows
he won't suit up for a game that counts until Week 5. I can't
wait for more drama to unfold (he said sarcastically).
I guess it's a good thing we get more than one bite at the apple
(projecting stats) during the summer; it is also yet another reminder
why owners shouldn't put anything of consequence on the line when
drafting this early. Occurrences like this are just another reason
why I decided to stop doing full-season projections last year.
There's already too much uncertainty that affects our teams during
the season. The last thing any owner wants is to have a surefire
first-rounder, who played in only six games last year due to a
suspension and knee injury, sidelined for a quarter of the upcoming
fantasy season before he even hits training camp.
Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each
of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC North. I have color-coded
the matchups for the full season. I think it is essential for
owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half
of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they
select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule
analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player
on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific
attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those
attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make
their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. It's not
as complex as it sounds and, after working out the kinks last
year, I think it will lead to the best set of Big Boards yet.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
reasonable in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than league-average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t get much better
than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for
said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this
matchup could produce special numbers.
Other important notes:
- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a
road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of
the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by
each player will be that player’s age as of September 1,
2016.
- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change.
In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words,
don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are
different from the ones you see here.
Key to the table below:
PAvg - Points per
game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth
six points. NAvg - Points per game in non-PPR
leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points. PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
Forsett that will turn 31 during the season and is coming off a
year in which he missed the final six games of 2015 due to a broken
arm. Allen proved to be everything college reports that he was -
an average runner with above-average ability in the passing game
- while Dixon appears to be the future at the position, although
very few seem to think much will happen in that regard this season.
The natural assumption seems to be Forsett win the job because he
is the incumbent, but I think it becomes clear in camp that Dixon
is going to need to be heavily involved from the onset. Whoever
wins the job will have the benefit of having OC Marc Trestman's
history on his side - Trestman has had a 20-touch back in 58 percent
of his games over the last three seasons. Whichever back emerges
- assuming one does - has a relatively tame slate, with the Jets
(Week 7) and fast-improving Raiders (Week 4) likely serving as the
stiffest competition before the bye. The second half of the schedule
gets a bit more difficult, although Trestman's utilization of running
backs in the passing game should mitigate those concerns. The biggest
challenge for owners when it comes to Baltimore's backfield will
not be the schedule, but rather figuring out if Forsett can keep
the job or Dixon will steal it from him before midseason.
Flacco was well on pace for his first 4,000-yard season before
an ACL tear dashed those hopes. Trestman has already said he intends
on running the ball more this season, but injuries depleted the
team to the point in 2015 that Baltimore had no choice but to
throw all day. As will be a common occurrence throughout the remainder
of the column, there are no red matchups for Flacco and virtually
none for the Ravens in general. With that said, it's hard for
even the most extreme optimist to put much faith in the former
Super Bowl MVP when his top wideout is coming off an Achilles'
injury (Smith), the team's speediest receiver can't get on field
(Perriman) and the team's other deep threat is on his third team
in three years (Wallace). Like Flacco, the receivers' schedule
is mostly devoid of red and looks particularly favorable around
fantasy playoff time. Figuring out which receiver will benefit
the most from that, however, will be the main issue for owners.
Will Smith find his 2015 form at any point this year? Will Wallace
be more like the 2014 version we saw in Miami or the 2015 model
that stagnated in Minnesota? Will Aiken and/or Perriman nudge
either one of them out of the lineup if the 30-somethings aren't
performing up to snuff? The Ravens' addition of Watson (and possible
return of Pitta) suggests to me this passing game may be defined
more by its balance than anything else, especially when you consider
four receivers are capable of starting. Watson will play and so
will Pitta if he's up to it, which means there is a strong possibility
of a lot of "12" personnel (one back, two tight ends
and two receivers). Balance - at least in this regard - is not
a word fantasy owners like to hear, and the schedule doesn’t
appear to be overly kind to the Baltimore tight ends either, especially
as the season went down. Between Byron Jones (Week 11), Jamie
Collins and Devin McCourty (Week 14) and Malcolm Jenkins (Week
15) spending a good chunk of their time on or around Watson and
Pitta, it's hard to find a reason to believe either one is going
to have much impact when it matters the most in fantasy.
Hill owners will need to practice patience in September in all likelihood,
as the early slate is very unfriendly to backs that generate most
of their fantasy value on the ground. Sure, the Jets (Week 1) lost
NT Damon "Snacks" Harrison and the Broncos (Week 3) lost
DE Malik Jackson as well as ILB Danny Trevathan, but both run defenses
figure to remain quite stout. After that, Hill should find the going
much easier, although the Giants (Week 10) could easily be enough
another yellow matchup to add to a second half of the schedule that
features the Steelers (Week 15) and the Texans (Week 16) at the
end of it. Although new OC Ken Zampese is expected to keep the same
offense in place that former play-caller Hue Jackson implemented,
there will always be new wrinkles involved when a coordinator change
takes place. The departure of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones should
have a positive effect on the fantasy value of Bernard, who also
stands to benefit just about anytime Hill struggles. Hill led the
team in PPR scoring seven times and Bernard nine times last season,
and a similar outcome could take place again in 2016. Bernard should
be considered the favorite anytime both backs have a yellow or red
matchup, making him the back owners are going to want at the beginning
and the end of the season. The absence of Eifert could change that,
however, since Cincinnati will be even more inclined to focus on
the power-running game.
There's an argument being made that Dalton will actually be better
this season than last because LaFell and Boyd represent a upgrade
over Jones and Sanu, which should be taken as a nod to Boyd and
a slap in the face to Jones. As Dalton's line indicates, he's
probably going to max out as a matchup-based fantasy starter.
Losing Jackson will hurt, and it is a safe bet Zampese will put
more of the burden on the running game to carry the offense early
while he learns what he has in LaFell and Boyd. The deck is stacked
against Dalton coming out of the gate on fire like he did last
season (especially without Eifert), so expect a heavy reliance
on Green - his pace stats per my projections would be 112 catches,
1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns on 168 targets, and that is taking
into consideration he'll matchup a lot against Darrelle Revis
(Week 1) and Aqib Talib or Chris Harris Jr. (Week 3) over that
time - when he does throw. Green should be an absolute monster
down the stretch, assuming the Bengals can don't depend so heavily
on Eifert in the red zone again this year. If LaFell somehow holds
on to the starting job all season long, it will mean he has at
least curbed his drop issues, although the reason I have him projected
to start slow is due to the difficult defenses he will face in
September. Eifert generated most of his fantasy value through
touchdowns last season, so he was already a strong candidate for
regression prior to his ankle surgery. However, the best time
for him to miss games (for the Bengals and for his owners) would
be early on, as Eifert has no worse than a neutral matchup after
Week 6.
The Browns may not be very good this year, but the odds are pretty
strong they will have enough volume in the backfield to make two
runners viable in fantasy more often than not. To get a sense about
the kind of volume I expect, I have Crowell projected for 60 touches
and Johnson for 55, which works out to just under 30 per game from
an offense many expect to be trailing 50 or 60 percent of the time.
Once again, the biggest question will be whether or not the "backup"
(Johnson) overtakes Crowell at any point and becomes the featured
back - leaving Crowell as the breather back - or if Johnson is the
breather back and maintains passing-down work. Like Giovani Bernard
and Jeremy Hill above, Johnson stands to benefit any time Crowell
struggles and/or Cleveland is trailing, so he figures to be the
much more consistent option regardless of whether or not Crowell
keeps the starting job. Volume is going to be important for Crowell
since the first 11 weeks do not offer up many cupcakes and touchdowns
will be hard to come by. During this time, Johnson should be averaging
at least five catches, as he will be no worse than the third man
on the passing-game totem pole. All hope is not lost for Crowell
- Cleveland has a pretty decent offensive line all things considered
- but owners need to realize he will be inconsistent at best and
isn't going to see the field a whole lot in the second half of games
if the Browns are as bad as we think they will be.
Griffin isn't even assured the starting job, but it probably
won't matter much whether he holds off Josh McCown. Both quarterbacks
will need the rushing attack to be efficient in order to do their
job well and Coleman will need to hit the ground running in order
to stretch the defense a bit. Given how red and yellow most of
the season looks for Cleveland pass-catchers, I wouldn't bet on
that happening all that often. Volume - outside of late-game situations
against prevent defenses - will not be in RG3's favor and neither
will the matchups, which look treacherous for such a weak passing
game. Griffin has rarely held up well against pass-rush pressure
- something I would expect him to see on nearly 40 percent of
his drop-backs regardless of how well the line is playing - because
it is unlikely last year's sabbatical did him any favors in terms
of speeding up his decision-making or making him more capable
of absorbing punishment. Barring a seamless return by Josh Gordon
- hardly a given since he did not play at all last year - Coleman
is going to be forced to be the No. 1 option against a schedule
that will pit him up against Josh Norman (Week 4) and Darrelle
Revis (Week 8) as well as a host of above-average cornerbacks
from Cincinnati (Weeks 7 and 14), Buffalo (Week 15) and San Diego
(Week 16). No thanks. Barnidge's splits with and without McCown
last year are staggering, so last year's breakout star probably
goes from a mid-range TE1 capable of scoring a touchdown every
other week to a potential TE2. If RG3 isn't the reason he starts
slow, blame the schedule; four of the Browns' first five opponents
did a masterful job keeping tight ends in check last year. The
one that didn't (Washington) will have longtime CB DeAngelo Hall
playing free safety in 2016.
What is it with the Steelers' inability to get all of their offensive
weapons on the field at the same time? At the time of this article's
release (July 26), Bell is expected to serve a four-game suspension
for missing multiple drug tests. Working under that assumption,
we saw plenty of evidence last year Pittsburgh is willing to lean
on Williams just like it would Bell, so I made only minimal changes
as I swapped out Bell's projections for Williams'. It also seems
like a fairly safe bet the ex-Carolina Panther will maintain at
least a bit role when Bell returns, so he could easily end up being
an investment that keeps on providing positive returns again this
year. The combination of skill and the Steelers' offensive line
(as well as the team's willingness to use its backs in the passing
game) are the main reasons the matchup lines of Bell and Williams
do not contain any red. There are no shortage of good rush defenses
on the schedule, although there is a three-game stretch (Weeks 10-12)
in which Pittsburgh should have its way. Assuming at least one of
the two backs are healthy, however, the Steelers should provide
a weekly threat for 100 total yards and a touchdown in just about
every contest.
Even without Martavis Bryant, this passing still figures to be
as dynamic as any in the league, so let's not waste space extolling
the virtues of Roethlisberger and Brown. The four yellows that
appear next to Big Ben and three that follow Brown are legitimate,
but it should come as no surprise if the former targets the latter
well over 200 times this year (193 targets for Brown
in 2015). When any quarterback is eyeballing the best receiver
in the league that many times, matchups aren't going to matter
all that much for fantasy owners. The trek is much more difficult
for Wheaton, who should catch a break some of the time if he continues
to work out of the slot as much as he did last year (326 of 457
routes), and Coates, who is the heavy favorite to fill Bryant's
big-play outside role. Both players should be treated as WR4s
to begin the season, and the schedule probably isn't going to
help them too much to move up a tier before the bye. Much will
depend on whether or not Wheaton's second-half connection with
Big Ben last year carries over to this season and whether or not
Coates is effective after amassing a single reception during the
2015 regular season. If the pair has any kind of sustained success
in the first half, look out. Only the Bengals (Weeks 2 and 15)
have the kind of corner depth to go somewhat toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh's
receivers. Training camp will be critical for Green, who underwent
offseason ankle surgery and didn't participate in OTAs. If he
is cleared for camp and shows anything in the preseason, he could
emerge as the biggest winner of the post-Bryant sweepstakes. Green
is as good of a downfield threat at tight end as there is in the
game today, which just happens to be what Bryant also does well.
The obvious difference is the former San Diego Charger will do
his work against safeties and linebackers, not cornerbacks. Owners
should expect a bit of inconsistency early with some difficult
matchups, but the second half should be smooth sailing outside
of a Week 10 showdown with Cowboys S Byron Jones.
Ask the casual fantasy fan and they'll tell you Langford was the
reason it was "easy" to let Matt Forte go. Ask the more
nuanced observer and they'll tell you there are solid reasons why
just about every outlet that covers Bears' football has said he'll
be in a committee with Howard and Carey: he doesn't get the tough
yards, commits too many drops and doesn't block very well. That's
a lot to overcome in one offseason and provides plenty of reason
as to why no Chicago back should be valued any higher than RB3.
Langford & Co. don't have any impossible matchups awaiting them
this season, but the combination of a committee attack (which seems
to be HC John Fox's M.O.) and a glut of yellow after Week 6 is enough
reason to steer clear from any of these backs. The most concerning
factor, however, is how often Chicago will face high-powered offenses
over the second half of the season. The Bears had a rusher post
at least 20 carries six times last year, five from Forte. I'd be
surprised if this year's squad gets half that many. Why? Chicago's
defense should able to keep them in the majority of games, but it
should become clear pretty quickly Jeffery and White will present
the team with its best opportunity to score from about any point
on the field. Furthermore, Howard is almost a lock to steal goal-line
carries from Langford. Between the schedule and the possibility
of a three-man rotation, there's just not much fantasy upside here.
The change from former play-caller Adam Gase to Dowell Loggains
will be felt most in the passing game, even though the latter
plans on sticking with the same offensive system. Gase has proven
he has a way with quarterbacks and was able to coax a career-low
interception total (at least in a season in which he played more
than 10 games) out of Cutler. Loggains has yet to show the ability
to forge that same connection with his passer in his time in the
league. White's presence should go a long way in helping Cutler
"get comfortable" with Loggains, but it seems hard to
believe a player that has yet to take a NFL snap - even one as
talented as White - can singlehandedly minimize the collective
losses of Gase, Martellus Bennett and Forte (all of whom are better
and/or more proven at their jobs than the men replacing them).
Cutler is set up to start fast, especially if Houston is minus
DE J.J. Watt, but it is hard to believe the enigmatic quarterback
will be of much use in fantasy after September. The real intrigue
in Chicago lies at the receiver position, where I fully expect
White to overtake Jeffery as the preferred option. At the very
least, I expect a 1A/1B setup as opposed to White playing second
fiddle. Both players have their fair share of yellows, but only
because I am more concerned about Cutler doing his part than I
am about either Jeffery or White winning their individual matchups,
so most of the yellows could be neutral matchups if you want to
believe "Good Jay" will show up this season. Miller
has the schedule to be the low-end TE1 he played like at times
near the end of last season, but his track record of durability
and the presence of White will probably rob him of most of the
touchdown opportunities he had after Bennett was lost for the
season. Even if Miller overcomes being the clear third option
in a Cutler-led passing attack, he'll be hard-pressed to deliver
in the fantasy playoffs.
As the best of both worlds (good inside runner with big-play ability
and adept receiver), Abdullah should be the clear No. 1
back in Detroit. However, that doesn't appear to be what the Lions
have in mind nor is it the way of the world anymore in today's NFL.
Abdullah averaged 5.3 YPC over the last five games of the season
when Detroit simplified some of its blocking schemes and the rookie
began to take better care of the ball. Even then, however, he topped
out at 13 carries over that stretch as Joique Bell stole more than
his fair share of early-down work while Riddick continued to dominate
the targets in the passing game. It seems hard to believe that approach
will change in 2016 since Zenner and/or Steven Ridley both would
seem to be more capable than Bell, and Abdullah missed the offseason
after undergoing shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum. As such,
it is difficult to put many greens in front of the running backs'
schedule since they may all have about a 12-carry ceiling. IF Detroit
can commit to Abdullah as the clear lead back on early downs, then
owners could be in for a treat down the stretch. The final four
weeks of the fantasy season feature some of the worst defenses versus
running backs last season and only the Giants (Week 15) have reason
to believe they'll be much better in 2016.
After last year's bye week (Week 9) - when then-newly promoted
OC Jim Bob Cooter had a full two weeks to work with his new charges
- the Lions went 6-2 and Stafford really took off as Cooter emphasized
protecting the quarterback and the short passing game. Expect
a similar approach this year, as the retirement of Calvin Johnson
pretty much eliminates the "let-him-go-up-and-get-it"
element from this offense. Stafford targeted his running backs
29 percent of the time following Cooter's promotion, which should
shed some light on just how quick the ball was usually coming
out. Whereas some wideouts on other teams we have covered so far
may have received a pass on a difficult matchup due to their unique
talent, both Tate and Marvin Jones have a legitimately "easy"
schedule outside of Weeks 7-12. Volume should not be a problem
for either player (particularly Tate), so it wouldn't be terribly
surprising if Tate blows right past his previous career high in
targets (143) for his first 100-catch season and Jones doesn't
push 80 receptions. In this particular case, the same thing I
said about the receivers' schedule applies to Stafford - tough
in the middle and smooth on the edges. Ebron should be positioned
to have a huge year as well based on his projected matchups and
his new status as the only "matchup nightmare" in town;
he should become the new favorite red-zone target for Stafford.
Durability and drops have been his biggest bugaboos, so that will
have to change if he hopes to eventually live up to his draft
status as the No. 10 overall pick in 2014. A Week 16 matchup against
Dallas and S Byron Jones is a bummer, but a small price to pay
for a player that will be drafted as a TE2 most of the time this
summer and could finish as a top-10 tight end.
Lacy was supposed to be everything that was good about building
a fantasy team around a running back last summer. He ended being
the poster child of why it is increasingly difficult to do exactly
that. Everyone knows about the weight gain, but HC Mike McCarthy
was frustratingly evasive during the season when it came to his
status each week. Only one offensive lineman started all 16 games
and Nelson wasn't around to stretch the field, further complicating
matters. The league thought so much of Starks - a player who started
ahead of Lacy four times last year - that one team (the Patriots)
expressed a bit of interest before he returned to Green Bay. With
that as the backdrop, Lacy appears much lighter and more focused
in 2016, which could pay off handsomely for owners who weren't jilted
by last year's misadventure. Still, it is probably best to assume
touches will be split 55/35/10 (John Crockett and/or new FB Aaron
Ripkowski being the final 10 percent) until proven otherwise, which
makes giving Lacy the benefit of the doubt on his yellow matchups
difficult. At a second- or third-round cost, owners need to think
long and hard about the risk McCarthy will pull the plug on Lacy
whenever he gets off to a slow start in a game. As such, there is
substantial risk in Lacy within the first 30 or so picks simply
because we've already seen McCarthy doesn't care about what his
former Pro Bowl back did for him over his first two seasons. Lacy
and Starks should find their path to fantasy success much easier
in the middle (between Weeks 6-12) and particularly difficult at
the end, so one of the two - if not both - will probably need to
rely on their contributions in the passing game (or the occasional
goal-line plunge) in order to be consistently usable during the
fantasy postseason.
Aaron Rodgers might have suffered through the best "off-year"
by a quarterback in NFL history last season considering his 31:8
touchdown-to-interception ratio, although his struggles were easily
explainable: The aforementioned injuries to the front five along
with the injuries to Nelson and Adams. Cobb failing to step as
the new WR1. McCarthy's reluctance to use Janis until he had to.
No hint of a consistent rushing attack or deep passing game. The
band appears to be back together and healthy now, however, so
perhaps Aaron Rodgers' return to the mountaintop at his position
isn't far behind. The back end of the Packers' schedule is unusually
difficult for all members of the passing game, so health will
be a key if Rodgers is going to help the receivers produce during
this difficult stretch. If there is any good news, it would be
that potentially none of the top cornerbacks the Packers will
face in the final weeks - specifically Josh Norman (Week 11),
Johnathan Joseph (Week 13) or Richard Sherman (Week 14) - may
be asked to shadow Nelson (Cobb will escape such treatment as
he tends to hang out in the slot). Richard Rodgers was probably
already due to lose some of last year's touchdowns after scoring
eight as a rookie, but the difficult late schedule and the addition
of Cook should pretty much seal it. I think both will tease owners
with the occasional big game during the first half of the schedule,
but I expect both to disappoint owners more often than not. The
third receiver in Green Bay is almost always worth a roster spot
in fantasy, and I am a big fan of Janis winning that job. Not
only would his speed and size give the Packers' two viable downfield
threats for a team that uses a lot of three-wide formations, but
it would open up the field for Lacy and Cobb. However, McCarthy
appears to be less thrilled about the idea than most owners. Adams
has bulked up this offseason and McCarthy likes his high-point
ability, meaning he'll probably be a red-zone staple regardless
of how everything shakes out. If McCarthy announces the winner
of the No. 3 competition during the preseason, owners should consider
him a high-ceiling WR4.
As sobering as it is for some of longtime fantasy fans, Peterson
has reached the age where we need to be legitimately concerned about
his workload (or at least the possibility that he may be entering
his last 300-plus carry season). The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported
last week the Vikings want to run
more plays out of shotgun this season, which may not sound like
a big deal until we consider there are pretty good reasons why Minnesota
hasn't made the transition already: AP doesn't like to run out of
the formation and has a career 3.8 YPC average on "gun runs".
The fact the Vikings are trying this for a second straight year
suggests they want to begin the process of transitioning from Peterson
to Bridgewater as the most important player on offense, which may
also signal a heavier use of McKinnon as well. Thus, it is possible
AP may be reliant on time, situation and the ability of Minnesota's
defense to let the offense play with the lead more than ever before.
The degree to which the Vikings embrace the shotgun this year and
the degree to which McKinnon steals Peterson's touches in 2016 figures
to have more of an effect on his fantasy bottom line than the schedule.
The three-time rushing champ faces as many difficult matchups in
five weeks before the bye as he does in the 10 games after it (three).
The four-game stretch to end the fantasy season looks particularly
promising, although every one of those games as shootout potential
if the Vikings' defense doesn't come to play.
It's entirely possible I was one year ahead of the Bridgewater
breakout - something that seems more likely now when the combination
of more shotgun plays (which is a good fit for the young signal-caller)
and the addition of Treadwell is factored into the equation. Still,
rolling the dice on that breakout seems like a bad bet considering
the Vikings probably aren't going to need to score all that many
points on a weekly basis with their defense likely to emerge as
one of the NFL's best. Like Peterson, Bridgewater will find his
stiffest competition before the bye and could become a matchup-based
starter during the second half of the season. Much of that optimism
is borne out of the likelihood the third-year quarterback has
his best (and perhaps healthiest) supporting cast yet. Diggs appears
set as the flanker and Treadwell the starting split end, but there
doesn't figure to be a lot more clarity than that (such as whether
or not Bridgewater will be more willing and better able to throw
downfield) until we see some preseason games. Thus, I have given
them identical matchup lines in all 15 games. Treadwell lacks
deep speed, but that hasn't been a necessary ingredient for OC
Norv Turner's best split ends over the years (Michael Irvin, Michael
Westbrook and Vincent Jackson among them), so owners might be
able to count on him being the primary deep threat in addition
to a potential red-zone maven. The matchups aren't particularly
favorable for any significant stretch of time for either receiver,
but Peterson's presence should ensure single coverage for both
players. More downfield throws would be good news for Rudolph
as well. Still only 26 (27 in November), the sixth-year pro should
be Bridgewater's favorite target in scoring territory, although
volume inside the 10 and 20 will be working against Rudolph as
long as Peterson is the centerpiece of the offense. Nevertheless,
Rudolph should be able to manage his usual TE2 numbers against
this schedule at the very least, and he could be poised for a
much bigger season if Treadwell and/or Diggs show well enough
to convince Turner and HC Mike Zimmer to open it up in 2016.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
