Writing such a piece (supporting the notion that receivers are
wise early investments) even a few years ago might have been blasphemy
for me, but today's fantasy football is not the same game most
of us played 20, 10 or even five years ago. While I haven't finalized
work on my Big Boards for this season, I can say with about 99.5
percent certainty a receiver (and probably more than one) will
sit atop my rankings for the first time. The zero-WR strategy
has received a lot of pub in recent years - especially this year
- but I still believe it is as fundamentally unsound now as I
always have (outside of the FFPC and TFC high-stakes leagues,
in which it is often the right approach given the format and rules).
However, I am willing to acknowledge receivers - the right ones
- are more stable fantasy properties than running backs, so it
is about time that shift in thinking is reflected in my rankings
going forward. With that said, it is important to understand just
how unusual the 2015 season was at the running back position.
Let's take a quick look:
2015: RB1s (RB1-RB12) averaged
262 touches for 1,336 total yards and 9.3 touchdowns (229.6 PPR
fantasy points) 2010-14: RB1s averaged 310 touches
for 1,620 total yards and 10.6 TDs (270.6)
2015: RB2s (RB13-RB24) averaged
217.2 touches for 1,084 total yards and 5.1 touchdowns (176.2) 2010-14: RB2s averaged 241.6 touches
for 1,139 total yards and 7.1 touchdowns (189.4)
RB1s averaged 218.4 carries last season and RB2s checked in at
176. Meanwhile, the worst single-season marks in the previous
five seasons were 249.9 and 183.7, respectively. The drop for
the RB1s was so dramatic that it is hard to believe running backs
won't experience a significant rebound this year, especially in
light of all the information I collected for this little study
going back to 2002. Three of the top 12 finishers (total PPR points)
last year played 13 or fewer games and three of the top 12 totaled
165 or fewer rush attempts, which should be an indication as to
how low the bar was set in 2015. Injuries to proven 300-touch
fantasy stalwarts like Le'Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles contributed
to the declines across the board, but what stuck out to me last
year is the complete lack of job security about 75-85 percent
of starting running backs have nowadays.
Lesson learned.
Fantasy owners don't get to choose how the intended and unintended
consequences of coaching-philosophy or rules changes affect our
game, but it is our job to react quickly and intelligently to
them if we want to win consistently. Running backs aren’t
less important in fantasy than they used to be (the right ones
are arguably worth more now), there just aren't near enough with
the job security or requisite workload to build our teams with
anymore, so it is pointless to force it when receivers seemingly
have incredible job security and are seeing as many targets as
ever at a less physically demanding position. When you consider
receivers like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are seeing nearly
as many opportunities as some low-end RB1s are getting carries
and remember the former is usually getting the ball in their hands
at least 10 yards down the field, it is no wonder wideouts are
taking over the fantasy landscape. Add to that the fact receivers
suffer far less punishment, and it is no wonder they have emerged
as the safer investments.
Class is dismissed for this week.
Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each
of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC West. I have color-coded
the matchups for the full season. I think it is essential for
owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half
of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they
select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule
analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player
on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific
attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those
attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make
their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. It's not
as complex as it sounds and, after working out the kinks last
year, I think it will lead to the best set of Big Boards yet.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
reasonable in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than league-average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t get much better
than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for
said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this
matchup could produce special numbers.
Other important notes:
- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a
road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of
the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by
each player will be that player’s age as of September 1,
2016.
- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change.
In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words,
don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are
different from the ones you see here.
Key to the table below:
PAvg - Points per
game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth
six points. NAvg - Points per game in non-PPR
leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points. PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
Here we go again? Last year, I seem to recall Anderson losing weight
in the offseason and entering training camp as the likely bell-cow
back behind a reshuffled offensive line. Meanwhile, Hillman drew
praise for his work in practice. Most of us remember how that worked
out. This year, Anderson again dropped weight in the offseason and
enters camp as the likely bell-cow behind a reshuffled offensive
line. Meanwhile, Booker is excelling as a blocker (same thing was
said about Hillman) and a receiver out of the backfield. The one
big difference this time around is Denver matched a four-year, $18
M offer sheet from Miami, so the team has a bit more invested in
him this year than last. HC Gary Kubiak even suggested Anderson
is "ready
to be an every-down back", but is he going to be one? Thankfully,
his current fourth-round ADP (as opposed to the first round last
year) makes it much palatable for owners to take the risk. While
he has occasionally used 1A/1B runners like he did in 2015, Kubiak
has never been one to assign specialty roles to his backs, so at
least history is on Anderson's side. With that said, I am finding
it hard to get behind the former undrafted free agent this year.
Denver's defense probably isn't going to be quite as good as it
was a season ago, opponents figure to make Mark
Sanchez or Trevor
Siemian earn their respect and Booker seems to be coming on
awfully strong for a player that will handle the ball five times
a game. Furthermore, I'm not crazy about the schedule either. I'm
not particularly optimistic about any of the Broncos' first four
opponents or four of their five foes after the bye, which leaves
the Anderson's sweet spot between Weeks 5-10. Denver's vow to run
the ball more often should help him be more consistent, but owners
need to remember Broncos' backs carried the ball average of 23.6
times last year, so it wasn't as if volume was the issue. The front
five is, at best, only marginally better than it was in 2015 as
well. My projection assumes Anderson will have 70 carries through
four games, so I feel confident what you see above will be his ceiling
after four games. With so much unsettled around him and uncertainty
at quarterback, he's a RB2 at best in my opinion.
By just about every meaningful passing-game stat or metric available,
Denver rated near the bottom or at the bottom of the league last
year. And let's be honest about something else, Kubiak has rarely
ever had a "franchise quarterback" (or at least a signal-caller
play like one). In spite of this, he coaxed several great seasons
out of Andre Johnson in Houston and a 100-catch season from Thomas
last year, not to mention another 1,100-yard season out of Sanders.
Is Sanchez and/or Siemian going to commit their fair share of
unforgivable interceptions? Yes, I'm sure they will. But for all
of the mistakes they are going to make, it is hard to believe
either one will do worse than Peyton Manning did in the first
half of 2015. In no way am I stumping for Siemian or Sanchez as
anything more than a bye-week fill-in this season, but Kubiak's
history of getting solid production out of his "X" receiver
(Thomas) is pretty compelling. For a receiver who finished as
WR11 during a season in which he was admittedly not focused and
received poor quarterback play, I find it hard to believe Thomas
is the 17th receiver coming off the board, per Fantasy Football
Calculator. The case for Sanders is even stronger than Thomas'.
Sanders was a more efficient receiver than Thomas almost across
the board last season and has actually been a better red-zone
receiver than DT over the last two seasons. Sanders has finished
fifth and 19th in PPR scoring during his two years in Denver while
playing with a declining Manning, so now he's going to fall all
the way down to 31st? While I acknowledge most of the yellow on
both players' schedules reflects the below-average quarterbacking
I think they will receive, a Kubiak-led offense has not ranked
lower than 18th in passing yards since the David Carr-led Texans
finished 27th in 2006. I would fully expect both players' overall
numbers to fall from their previous lofty totals given how much
I'm sure Denver wants to protect its quarterback, but 225 passing
yards/game - which would be about a 10 percent drop from last
year - isn't really a big ask in this day and age with the target
shares Thomas and Sanders are likely to have or against this kind
of schedule. It also wouldn't surprise me at all if Sanders outperforms
Thomas after the bye. The Broncos expect big things from Heuerman
and, once again, Kubiak's offenses tend to get production out
of that position. Last year, the less-than-impressive trio of
Owen Daniels, Vernon Davis and Virgil Green combined for 78 catches
and 891 yards, so it's not unthinkable Heuerman could be a TE2
in 12-team leagues. Daniels was the TE21 last year, so a top-15
finish isn't unrealistic for the Ohio State product.
There are so many directions an owner can go with Charles this summer:
Hate him because he will turn 30 late in the season? Like him because
he's going in the second round of fantasy drafts for what seems
like only the second time since his breakout 2009 campaign? Hate
him because he is coming off his second ACL tear? Like him because
he's already proven he can bounce the following season from such
an injury? Hate him because the Chiefs have proven depth behind
him now? Like him because all he does is produce and is a model
of efficiency while doing so? The good news is that his fantasy
stock is highly unlikely to change over the next month as he likely
will see minimal work in the preseason, which just also happens
to be the bad news because we won't have a chance to see him with
our own eyes. However, I find myself wanting to trust him this year
and think he will represent incredible value in the middle of the
second round, even if he loses out on goal-line work to Ware as
expected. Even if we give all 15 of Charles' touchdowns from the
2- or 1-yard line over the last two-plus seasons to Ware, it leaves
him with 23 in that time. Assuming we carry that same percentage
(39.4) over to this season, it isn't unthinkable he could still
hit double figures (all but one of his scores last year came outside
the 5). With backs like Charles who generate so many of their fantasy
points in the passing game, I often tend to treat the yellows on
my chart more like white matchups. Thus, my only fear if I own Charles
this year will be injury; I'm not going to sweat what is otherwise
a difficult first quarter and second half of the season (look at
Ware and West's line for proof of that). Losing goal-line touches
and playing a pair of (projected) difficult run defenses in the
final two weeks of the season is a bit of a bummer, but all we have
to do is look back to how much actual production Knile Davis "stole"
from him in 2013 and 2014 - and I think those seasons turned out
just fine for JC.
Let's not spend too much time on Smith, who attempted only 153
passes when Kansas City was trailing last year and was a much
better quarterback on the road than at home. His rushing totals
(498 yards, two scores) accounted for roughly 20 percent of his
fantasy value and his 84 rushing attempts was a career high. I
guess the best thing most owners can say about Smith is that he
often presents a safe weekly floor, and the worst thing is that
his ceiling isn't much higher than the aforementioned floor, almost
regardless of matchup. As per usual, he is probably a serviceable
bye-week fill-in, but someone most owners will want to drop the
following week. Last year, business really picked up for Maclin
as the team's primary scoring threat after Charles went down.
This year, it is conceivable he has another big year, but for
an entirely different reason: How good can the defense really
be minus sack-master OLB Justin Houston (a candidate for short-term
IR) and CB Sean Smith (free agent departed for Oakland)? A slow
start will be almost impossible for Maclin to avoid with strong
odds he'll be drawing regular coverage from the likes of Jason
Verrett, Johnathan Joseph and Darrelle Revis in Weeks 1-3 as well
as Smith and Vontae Davis in Weeks 6 and 8, respectively. The
big key for him will be the same as it is with most receivers
- will he regularly see eight or more targets on a regular basis
regardless of the matchup? Smith's well-documented unwillingness
to go downfield - and the Chiefs' reliance on other options (Charles
and Maclin) as the primary receivers are among the several factors
keeping Kelce from seriously challenging Rob Gronkowski for top
honors at tight end. While the schedule doesn't lay out particularly
well for Maclin, it does more so for Charles, so another year
of mid-TE1 production is probably in the cards for "Zeus".
As somewhat referenced earlier, the Chiefs rarely trailed during
their winning streak last year, so Kansas City almost always had
a positive game script last year. Without Houston and Smith, that
could change in 2016, so Kelce owners can potentially cling to
that if they hope 2016 can be Kelce takes the next step. I would
also not characterize his slate as overly daunting; if Kansas
City really tries to make him more of a priority this season,
he's got a chance to be something special in the second half of
the season.
There has been some talk about the Raiders boasting one of the most
formidable offensive lines in the NFL this season. (Are they ever
going to need it.) With only an injured, ineffective (or both) Roy
Helu Jr. in reserve last year, Murray eclipsed 300 touches and finished
as the RB10 in PPR formats. The workload continued right through
the end of December as well, even though he averaged over four yards
per carry in only two of the team's final seven games. Enter Washington,
who GM Reggie McKenzie seems to love just a little more than most
general managers usually love their fifth-round picks. In other
words, it seems highly unlikely volume is going to be working in
Murray's favor again this season, and Oakland could be employ something
closer to a split backfield than most of his owners are willing
to admit. So even with an offensive line that could very well be
among the league's best, weekly consistency figures to be an issue
for Murray and Washington. The key reasons Murray emerged as a top-10
back last year were due to the 64.2 points he scored in the passing
game (41 catches, 232 yards) and the fact he was one of four players
with 300-plus touches in 2015. Look for Murray's reception numbers
to get cut nearly in half by Washington, who probably only needs
to prove he is an average blocker to steal a significant chunk of
third-down work. There's a good chance not all nine yellows on Murray
and Washington's lines will actually turn out to be borderline-bad
matchups, but I have a hard time believing I'll be wrong about more
than two of them. Playing against New Orleans (Week 1) and San Diego
(Week 5) early should help owners feel good about themselves early
on, but unless Oakland just runs roughshod through Tennessee and
Baltimore in Weeks 3 and 4, I would have a hard time not selling
Murray after the first Chargers' game. He accounted for 71.8 percent
of the backfield touches last year; short of an injury to Washington
in 2016, I'm not sure he tops 60 percent this time around. If we
take the simplistic measure of reducing Murray's PPR fantasy total
of 204.8 last year by the same 11.8 percent, he would drop from
RB10 to RB16. While I have yet to do any Big Board work, I would
say that ranking sounds about right for 2016.
Carr sported a 104.3 QB rating in the first half of last season
(including a 19:4 TD-to-INT ratio), then bottomed out with a 79.2
rating the rest of the way (13:9 TD-to-INT). The schedule got
a bit tougher, the running game failed to carry its weight and
Carr suffered nearly three times as many sacks in Week 9-17 (23)
as he did in Weeks 1-8 (eight). As much as I hate to say it, 2016
looks like it could play out the same way. The first-half schedule
features three of the Raiders' four NFC South foes, a Baltimore
secondary that may or may not have Jimmy Smith and a Kansas City
defense that could be without Justin Houston. With the weapons
he has at his disposal, Carr should tear up the first half of
the season. Oakland pays for it, however, by facing four straight
opponents in Weeks 9-13 who should be among the best pass defenses
in the league. And while it would seem to be a good thing all
of those games are at home, Carr was much better on the road last
season. If I didn't feel Cooper was going to become the focal
point of the offense this season, his schedule would be enough
to scare me away from him. I expect most of the teams that have
a corner capable of being an effective shadow (New Orleans, Atlanta,
San Diego x 2, Denver, Houston, Buffalo and Indianapolis) to do
so against Cooper since he is the Raiders' only proven big-play
threat at the moment. (I expect Walford to change that, however.)
As luck would have it, very few of those teams I just mentioned
have a solid pair of corners, meaning Crabtree could be a high-volume
target in at least half of his yellow matchups. Much like Carr
and Crabtree, I expect Walford to excel at the beginning and end
of this season. The true test of whether or not he's ready to
become a low-end TE1 this season will take place between their
contests with the Chiefs in Weeks 6 and 14. I don't expect him
to be of much use in fantasy in either one of those two weeks,
but it will be what he does in between that will ultimately define
his growth.
There's not a lot of love for Gordon out there and it is understandable
why. He had a poor rookie season and spends just about every passing
down or red-zone play on the sideline. Furthermore, he had microfracture
surgery in the offseason. Now, let's make a case as to why he struggled
last season. After running out of shotgun 31 times and out of two-back
sets 200 times in his final college season (343 carries), 147 of
his 184 carries last year came as the lone setback. The Chargers
used 24 different offensive combinations last year and defense wasn't
particularly good either, leading to a lot of negative game-script
scenarios. Yet, Gordon still touched the ball 215 times. San Diego
welcomed back OC Ken Whisenhunt this offseason to replace former
play-caller Frank Reich. All "Whiz" did in his first and only year
as the Chargers' OC in 2013 was help Ryan Mathews set a career high
with 1,255 yards in an offense that ran 486 times, 285 of which
went to the one-time Pro Bowler. (In case you were wondering, Woodhead
also set career highs with 106 carries and 182 total touches that
year.) The Chargers did not have a fullback per se last year; this
spring, they have two in camp, including sixth-round pick Derek
Watt. The team added third-round C Max Tuerk and has to believe
it will have better luck on the injury front this season, so it
seems unlikely Gordon can do any worse than his RB47 finish last
season (14 games). Woodhead is still the fantasy property to own
in this backfield, and the Chargers probably aren't going to be
much better on defense in 2016 than they were last year, so he is
in line for another big fantasy season if he maintains the same
high-leverage (and fantasy-friendly) roles he owned last year. Game
script (such as San Diego trailing or repeatedly getting forced
into third-and-long situations) means a whole lot more to Woodhead
than matchups, so an investment in him means you believe/hope the
Chargers will be in a number of shootouts or two-minute drill situations.
Gordon's matchups obviously mean much more to him and facing the
AFC/NFC South should be a boost to his fantasy bottom line after
dealing with the AFC/NFC North a season ago. Unlike many of the
teams we've covered to this point, San Diego has the firepower to
engage in shootouts, so total abandonment of the running game doesn't
seem likely all that often. Gordon probably isn't going to be much
more than a flex option very often from Weeks 6-14, but he should
be of some use - perhaps low-end RB2 - over the first five weeks
of the season and late in the fantasy playoffs. With that said,
I wouldn't mind selling high on him if he starts out fast in September.
What's not to love about Rivers? He hasn't missed a start since
taking over for Drew Brees in 2006 and has consistently finished
with well over 4,000 yards and right around 30 touchdowns over the
last three years. (Imagine if he actually had a decent o-line and
healthy receivers over that same time.) Outside of Week 6 and 8
matchups versus Denver, I don't see a matchup this season that I
would necessarily avoid Rivers as long as he has his current supporting
cast. I'm not crazy about a Week 16 game in Cleveland, but I'm not
going to ignore a great matchup just because he might face brutal
weather in that game. Allen could see his production dip in October
- most notably Weeks 5-8 - but WR1 production in eight of the other
11 contests seems perfectly reasonable. And given how many high-scoring
affairs the Chargers could find themselves in this season, I'm confident
a sure-handed target like Allen is going to regularly see 10 targets.
People seem to want to put Benjamin into the same deep-threat only
box that Malcom Floyd lived in most of his career, but I think that
is completely underselling his upside. In an offense that will probably
throw for around 4,500 yards, I don't know why Benjamin can't be
a cheaper fantasy version of DeSean Jackson. Like Rivers, I don't
see a matchup outside of the two against the Broncos in which the
ex-Brown can't have a big day. Gates might be the only 36-year-old
non-quarterback for whom matchups probably don't matter. Rivers
trusts him implicitly in the red zone and Gates' footwork appears
so second-nature to him at this point that he doesn't struggle to
get open even when it looks like he's lumbering. Given his age,
I would strongly consider selling him after the first four games
of the season, however. Maybe he has another strong season or two
in him, but I wouldn't want to bet on him lasting a full season
again at this point of his career.
Now we arrive at the team that wants everyone to think it has a
committee situation when it probably really doesn't. Let's think
about this rationally. Despite managing only 54 offensive touches
through 11 games last season, David Johnson scored seven touchdowns.
Over that same time, Chris Johnson totaled three touchdowns on 202
touches. Obviously, touchdowns per touch doesn't singlehandedly
make one player automatically better than another, but I think it
begin to show how much more playmaking ability the younger Johnson
has. HC Bruce Arians has virtually no track record of splitting
carries between backs (most of his resume speaks to giving one back
about two-thirds of the carries while giving the second back just
less than a third) and one could easily question whether or not
Arians has had a back who could do it all like David Johnson. Yes,
Chris Johnson will be involved and I think he will have standalone
value in about 5-6 games, but only because Arizona is going to hold
a two-or three-score lead in the fourth quarter of some of their
games, making it rather pointless to open the second-year back up
to more punishment when Chris Johnson - a player OC Harold Goodwin
suggests is "even" with David as a runner - could finish out the
game. I have David Johnson projected to receive about 65 percent
of the backfield touches and can't imagine him handling less than
60 percent. Even with his aforementioned playmaking ability, David
Johnson is going to need all those touches to play like a top-five
back against a schedule that could have as many as four reds if
he were an average back (good luck getting him to perform like a
RB1 against the Jets, Seahawks and Panthers, respectively, in the
weeks leading up to the bye). Assuming Arians does a good job of
monitoring his touches prior to Week 9, the second-year back could
perform like a fantasy MVP over the second half of the season. The
one downside: no owner wants their players in Seattle in Week 16.
Palmer had roughly the same statistics Tom
Brady did last season despite attempting 86 fewer passes, so
someone needs to explain to me why his ADP is nearly a full round
below Brady's despite the fact Tom Terrific will miss 25 percent
of the season. Palmer will trade in the AFC/NFC North for the AFC/NFC
East this year and figures to have it a bit easier inside the division
as San Francisco will embrace pace (likely leading to one of the
league's worst defenses statistically) and Los Angeles, which should
take a step back on defense after losing key contributors on every
level of the defense this offseason. Each of Palmer's yellow matchups
are legit, but this is far from an intimidating slate overall when
you consider his trio of receivers and Arians' aggressive mentality.
Much like Hines Ward in his later years (in the slot as well with
Arians, no less), Fitzgerald figures to keep producing well past
the age he probably should. All of his yellows are what I consider
"scheme yellows" (defenses I feel owners should be concerned about
due to a coordinator or scheme advantage and/or enough quality corners
to effectively defend just about any formation the offense uses),
so his biggest issue may be whether or not David Johnson steals
his short and intermediate looks like he did at the end of last
season. I expect Floyd to draw the most defensive attention of the
two outside receivers and draw shadow coverage against the few teams
on the schedule that could use it. He's more than capable of posting
WR3 numbers - even against the likes of Richard
Sherman (Weeks 7 and 16) - although I wonder if Palmer simply
looks Brown's way more often in those contests. With Fitz going
off in the first half and Floyd dominating over most of the second
half, it's easy to forget Brown was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2015.
Arians told reporters in June that Brown "should
have 1,400 (yards) easy" and was a bad
game away from probably having 1,200. I think he hits the latter
number this year and begins to assert himself as the best receiver
of this group. He's arguably the best "third receiver" in the league
already and opponents must treat him as such with Floyd and Fitzgerald
around. I don't expect him to maintain the touchdown pace I have
him projected for through four games, but I anticipate I'm on target
with his catch and yardage totals. The only thing I see stopping
Brown is injury or a dramatic reduction of targets - the latter
of which I doubt happens. "Smokey" is a steal as the 34th receiver
off the board in the late sixth round.
The fantasy gods were kind enough last year to provide us a running
back who doesn't have to look over his shoulder every other down.
From Weeks 4-16, Gurley handled 80 percent of the team's carries,
rushed for 86.8 percent of the yards generated by Rams' running
backs and accounted for 41.7 percent of the position's catches.
With Tre Mason a complete unknown at this point and only Cunningham
in reserve, those numbers probably aren't going to go down much
- if at all - barring injury in 2016. At this point, I think it
safe to treat Gurley like we have Adrian Peterson for most of his
career, he's going to find a way to be special despite what appears
to be an unforgiving schedule (look at Cunningham's line for proof
of that). Given the likelihood the St. Louis defense falls down
a few pegs as most expect, I would even suggest Gurley might be
a candidate for 50-plus catches given the Rams' lack of proven playmakers
at receiver and the odds Goff will be instructed to play conservatively.
Chances are he's going to need it if owners want him to be a top-five
back this year. If Gurley and his owners can manage through the
first 10 weeks, the reward should be waiting for them on the other
side. Trips to New England (Week 13) and Seattle (Week 15) are far
from ideal, but his other four contests from Week 11 on may allow
owners to ride him to a fantasy championship.
Where do we even start with this passing game? With a No. 1 overall
pick (Goff) who was arguably the second-best player at his position
in the draft? (One who may not start Week 1 if we are to believe
Case
Keenum is the frontrunner.) With a receiver (Austin) that
had as many carries last year as receptions (52)? With another
receiver (Quick) who can't stay healthy and essentially rode the
bench in 2015 for a team that had a screaming need at the position?
It's virtually impossible to give Goff or Keenum a green matchup
in what will be a low-volume passing game with league-average-or-worse
pass protection. HC Jeff Fisher suggested Austin could double
his catch total from a season ago in late May, but the only
way that happens is if the Rams made him a full-time slot and
used him like the Patriots have used Wes
Welker and Julian
Edelman. The problem with that is the slot figures to be Cooper's
best position as well, and the rookie could end up being the team's
second-best receiver this season. Austin's consistent rushing
contributions make him as matchup-proof as a fantasy WR3 can be
(an impressive feat on such a poor offense), but the quarterback
situation and conservative offensive philosophy makes it extremely
unlikely he rises above that. As one might expect, I'm not seeing
much room for even a WR5 candidate to emerge from the outside
receiver group of Britt, Quick or Mike
Thomas. Kendricks will likely be asked to fill the void left
behind by Jared
Cook and has typically been a sneaky bet for a red-zone touchdown
a handful of times for most of his career. Cook struggled for
fantasy relevancy throughout his Rams and I'm not sure Hendricks
has a realistic shot at reaching those same levels. I like the
red-zone potential and overall upside of fourth-round pick Tyler
Higbee, but he has enough obstacles (the passing game as a
whole, rookie tight ends rarely produce meaningful stats, off-field
history, etc.) to keep him from being a factor anytime soon.
Chip Kelly, offensive genius. If he hopes to reclaim that title,
though, he'll have to do so against perhaps the most difficult first-half
run schedule in the league and perhaps the most difficult run schedule
overall. With that said, I'll buy Hyde all day as a RB2 in the late
fourth round. Why? 1) He is the clear early-down workhorse in this
backfield, 2) His durability issues have already been accounted
for in his ADP and 2) I think when he hits in a given week, he's
REALLY going to hit. Now the major questions are: When will Hyde
actually be able to "hit" against this schedule and will Draughn
steal too much of the passing-game work in the 10 or so games San
Francisco figures to be trailing in this season? I'm not he's going
to be in a position to "hit" more than once or twice over the first
half of the season. Assuming he is still healthy going into the
bye and his owners make it out of the meat grinder that is the pre-bye
slate, I really like his chances of being a stud down the stretch.
As far as I am concerned, his fourth-round ADP is spot-on because
it takes into account his talent and the potential for 300-plus
carries in a Kelly offense with the likelihood he'll miss games
against a brutal schedule.
Let's take Chip at his word (it's more important for a quarterback
to be accurate in his system than mobile) and go with Gabbert over
Colin Kaepernick. Assuming this, it's not crazy to think Gabbert
could be a matchup-based fantasy starter this season (I know, I
can't believe I'm typing it either). The former No. 10 overall pick
in the 2011 draft is actually more athletic than he is given credit
for, although owners need to be very careful with "In Chip We Trust";
pace isn't always the answer and there really isn't a stretch of
games in which the matchups work out well for him. The best time
to trust Gabbert - if you can find it in your heart to do so - will
probably be Weeks 7-12 since he has three green matchups, while
Arizona and New England figure to make San Francisco play catch-up
most of the game. If the "Chip Kelly Effect" works as planned and
the Niners find themselves forced into throwing 40-50 times on a
regular basis, it only makes sense they'll probably have at least
two fantasy-relevant receivers. With Eric Rogers (ACL) done for
the year and Patton not impressing anyone, Smith and Ellington have
to be considered the most likely to benefit. DeSean Jackson - mostly
known as a deep threat - was remarkably consistent in his one year
as Kelly's top receiver in 2013 and Jordan Matthews - primarily
a slot receiver for Kelly - each fared quite well in this offense.
Moreover, Kelly loves utilizing jet-sweep action with a big-play
threat who is part undersized running back and part receiver, which
sounds a lot like Ellington. It would not surprise me at all - and
my color-coding reflects this - if Ellington ends up being a better
version (in fantasy) of 2015 Tavon Austin if he can simply stay
healthy. If I have him pegged right, he could be a monster in the
fantasy postseason. I can't imagine a realistic scenario in which
Smith doesn't average at least 10 targets. With his deep speed and
that much opportunity, I'm willing to ignore most of the yellows
and bet he'll be worth a fantasy start in at least 10 games. I'm
not crazy about trusting him against Darrelle Revis and Desmond
Trufant during the fantasy playoffs, but I'm willing to bet Kelly
manufactures some touches for him in the cases when the matchup
is far from ideal. McDonald seems the most likely candidate to play
the role of Zach Ertz in this offense, although I admit I have him
getting off to a slow start. The rest of the schedule doesn't appear
to favor him either, but keep in mind the run-action in this offense
tends to create huge openings down the middle of the field. As a
result, McDonald is a strong candidate to surprise a lot of folks
and push for 60 catches.
Garry Gilliam, Jahri Evans, Justin Britt, Germain Ifedi and J'Marcus
Webb. If you don't know more than two of these guys, you're not
alone. From left to right, they are the projected starters on the
offensive line for the Seahawks and the latest challenge to OL coach
Tom Cable's ability to mold any group of players into a league-average
front five or better. As what has seemingly become an annual rite
in the Pacific Northwest, not a single member of the offensive line
returns to the same position he played last year. It's also the
same group that will be charged with giving Rawls a few holes to
run through. Prosise is also a real threat to steal some early-down
work eventually. We haven't even touched upon Rawls' returning from
a serious ankle injury. All of this uncertainty makes what appears
to be a somewhat favorable run slate (at least when compared to
the rest of the division) difficult to predict. Fortunately, Rawls
& Co. has a solid opportunity to start out strong with four
(mostly) favorable matchups over the team's first five games. If
the line is able to gel earlier than it did last year, then Rawls
has a shot to live up to his 4.01 ADP. Game script should almost
always be in his favor as well since Seattle's defense should be
very good once again. I think it may be too tall of an order to
expect Rawls to become a top-10 fantasy back, however. Prosise is
going to get most of the love in the passing game, there are too
many question marks on the offensive line and most of the yellows
on Rawls' schedule are borderline-red matchups (especially for a
player that will generate so much of his fantasy production as a
runner), so owners need to cap their expectations at a high-end
RB2 level.
Some years ago, there was a running joke that went something
like this: Who is the only person who can stop Michael Jordan
from scoring 20 points/game? (Legendary North Carolina basketball
coach) Dean Smith, his college coach. I mention this because about
the only thing that had kept Wilson from becoming a superstar
fantasy quarterback prior to last season has been the Seahawks'
devotion to the running game. We got a taste of what a Wilson-centric
offense can do last year and it appears we might get more exposure
to it in 2016. While his schedule isn't exactly littered with
cupcakes, I can fully understand why some folks are ready to make
him the first quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts. Only
Arizona (Weeks 7 and 16) strikes me as a matchup that owners might
want to avoid, although Wilson fans can feel good about the latter
matchup being played in Seattle. While I'll be happy to invest
in Lockett as a high-upside WR3, his matchup line suggests he
better be every bit as good as the Seahawks' coaches are making
him sound. As an outside receiver who is likely to attract a better
corner more often than Kearse, Lockett and his owners could be
in for a long middle of the season if opposing coaches decide
to shadow him, which would include matchups with Darrelle Revis,
Desmond Trufant, Patrick Peterson, Delvin Breaux and Stephon Gilmore.
Baldwin is a much safer option and Wilson's more trusted target.
I can't imagine he'll come anywhere close to 14 touchdowns again,
but I think 7-8 is reasonable. I also expect him to fall short
of his ridiculous 75.7 catch rate from 2015, but I can easily
see him repeating or surpassing last year's catch and yardage
totals if Seattle chooses to stay with its quick-hitting offense.
Owners should expect a slow start - if not a slow season - for
Graham, and it should be noted I am treating him as a league-average
tight end above due to his injury (torn patellar tendon). Like
Victor Cruz before him, if that injury doesn't slow him down in
2016, he'll likely be sidelined with another injury due to overcompensating
for it. As the schedule analysis suggests, a good year for Graham
will be getting through it without a setback. And even if he somehow
rewrites the book in his recovery from such a devastating injury
before the start of the fantasy playoffs, the second half of his
slate is riddled with proven cover linebackers, top-notch safeties
or both.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
