One of the more underutilized free tools available to the fantasy
public is Next Gen Stats.
While I certainly have some ideas in terms of adding to the usefulness
and scope of the information it does track, it can nonetheless answer
some of the more advanced questions we have about our players …
and that is always a good thing. Combined with other metrics sites
such as Pro Football Focus, we can certainly get a better sense
of what is happening without actually having to study and analyze
every snap from every game.
The focus of this week's column will be utilizing the metrics
Next Gen Stats provides for the running back position and using
PFF to fill in some gaps when necessary. Whether this becomes
a regular feature or not will ultimately depend on how well it
is received, but most of the questions owners have from week to
week tend to be about running backs. The position is often heavily
affected by game script, except for those players who are either
well-established as their team's three-down workhorse or play
for a team whose defense simply keeps the game script neutral
or positive most of the time. At the very least, it is interesting
information. Ideally, it will help readers understand why a back
may be overachieving or underachieving.
Key for the table below:
(definitions as provided by Next Gen Stats)
Efficiency (Eff) - Rushing efficiency is calculated
by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays
as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards)
per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a
north-south runner.
8+ - Percentage of snaps there were eight or
more defenders in the box when the ball is snapped.
TLOS - Average time behind the line of scrimmage;
the amount of time a ball carrier spends (measured to the tenth
of a second) before crossing the line of scrimmage. TLOS is the
average time behind the line on all rushing plays where the player
is the rusher.
Next Gen
Stats' Running Back Metrics (through two games)
Phillip Lindsay is tied with Isaiah Crowell for first place among
all qualified backs in terms of efficiency at 2.72. To put that
number into some perspective, Alvin Kamara's 3.23 led the league
last season (Dion Lewis was second at 3.3). And since Next Gen
Stats began releasing their data in 2016, DeAndre Washington's
3.14 in 2016 is the best full-season mark. Efficiency - at least
the way Next Gen stats defines it - should be very much tied in
with TLOS since north-south runners typically don't dance or spend
a lot of time behind the line of scrimmage. While I would not
have guessed Crowell to be at the top, he is a player who will
generally make his living between the tackles. Both players broke
off huge runs in Week 1, which obviously skews the data in their
favor.
At 5-8 and 190 pounds, it's fair to wonder if the success Lindsay
has experienced thus far can continue if he is used in the same
way he has been up to this point (mostly
between the tackles). As we know, lack of size doesn't necessarily
mean a player can't hold up to a heavy workload or run inside
on occasion. It is also apparent he has very good balance, vision
and quickness, so he has the proper profile to succeed inside.
However, lack of size can become a problem if he is asked to continually
run inside (all but four of his 29 runs have been charted as in
between the tackles). And let's not forget about his competition.
Up to this point, he has faced the Seahawks and the Raiders at
home. Denver will face Baltimore, the New York Jets and the Rams
over three of the next four games, so does that mean his carries
will go down and his work in the passing game will go up? I don't
think we know that for sure yet.
Additionally, as someone who played their college ball at elevation,
Lindsay inherently had a bit of an advantage over the opposition,
especially given the warm temperatures for both of their games
thus far. Two of those upcoming games I just referenced will be
on the road. I'm not exactly recommending selling high or holding,
because I believe he will ultimately settle into the same kind
of role the Chargers have for Austin Ekeler, who interestingly
ranks fifth in efficiency at 3.06. The Broncos seem committed
to a committee approach, as Lindsey (76 snaps) has only a moderate
edge in playing time over Devontae Booker (59) and Royce Freeman
(45). When we consider Booker has only touched the ball on 11.8
percent of the snaps (compared to 42.1 for Lindsay and 51.1 for
Freeman), it's fair to wonder if Booker won't simply get phased
out in one or two more weeks. For what it's worth, Freeman has
seen eight men in the box on 56.5 percent of his carries, which
should be a clear message to OC Bill Musgrave that Freeman needs
to run more than 7.5 routes per game (per PFF). Then again, Lindsey
is only averaging 8.5 routes despite averaging 15.5 more snaps
per game.
Sinner or Saint?
One of the more interesting early trends among backs belongs
to Alvin Kamara, whose efficiency per Next Gen Stats (4.06) is
way down from last year (league-best 3.23). There appears to be
a simple reason for this, however. Only Alex Collins (62.5) is
facing eight men in the box more often than Kamara (57.1), who
is being used more in the passing game as a result. Kamara is
on pace for 144 targets and 120 receptions - usage that would
shatter last year's production in those categories. It's probably
not a surprise he's picked up the pace in TLOS (2.8 last year
to 2.6 this year) given how often he's facing a stacked box. Kamara
was always going to struggle to meet his rushing efficiency last
year (3.6 YPC, down from 6.1 as a rookie), but there is also no
denying his talent. Kamara's usage in the passing game so far
is not only a clear reflection of HC Sean Payton realizing how
defenses are playing him but also a reminder that good coaches
will get the ball to special players almost regardless of what
the defense is doing.
Cardinal confessional
Speaking of special players, most fans understand David Johnson
has been a victim of his circumstances thus far. What is particularly
disturbing is that defenses aren't going out of their way to stop
him. Johnson has faced eight defenders only 18.2 percent of the
time (tied for 10th fewest and includes the three qualified backs
who have yet to see a stacked box). His efficiency (3.7) and TLOS
(2.9) are roughly on par with his breakout 2016 campaign (3.87,
2.7). This means we are most likely looking at unimaginative play-calling
(20 of his 22 rush attempts have been charted in between the tackles)
and poor offensive line play (per PFF, only two offensive linemen
have a run blocking grade over 60 - which is not particularly
good - and both are tackles). Facing the Rams' stacked defensive
line last week certainly didn't help matters, although his rushing
average in Week 2 (3.7 YPC) wasn't all that bad considering the
opposition. Of course, Johnson lacks two key things that Kamara
has, namely a capable offensive line and a play-caller who won't
run his back into a wall when they are just as capable in the
passing game (and in space) as they are in between the tackles.
So are things going to change for Johnson soon? To his credit,
HC Steve Wilks cited the need to get him more involved in the
passing game earlier this week. We shall see if the first-time
coach is someone who can get his assistants to understand his
message the first time or not. The creativity and volume are going
to have to pick up in the coming weeks, however, as he faces Chicago,
Seattle (which surprisingly stuffed the run despite being shorthanded
on Monday night), San Francisco, Minnesota and Denver over the
next five games. Johnson is a smart buy-low, but I'm not entirely
sure he's hit rock-bottom yet. I'm of the belief it is going to
get better, but it might take a while - especially if the current
regime in Arizona doesn't look back at the tape and utilize some
of the plays/packages/concepts that former HC Bruce Arians did.
Gold Rush
While there is no perfect formula to build the NFL's leading
rusher after two weeks, a good recipe for one is can get north-south
quickly, doesn't face stacked boxes, doesn't spend much time behind
the line of scrimmage and has some explosion to his game. Matt Breida ranks fourth in efficiency (2.99), is tied with David Johnson
for 10th in terms of lowest percentage of eight men in the box
(18.2) and is hitting the line of scrimmage in less than three
seconds (2.83). What makes his numbers more special is that unlike
a back like Crowell or Lindsay, he's reaching those first and
third metrics despite running outside
a lot more than they are. Only four of his runs have been
charted as "middle," while his other 18 have been outside
the guards or near the sideline. Although I didn't use this data
when I said it this summer, I thought a comparison to Tevin Coleman
was appropriate for Breida on multiple levels. Although we still
need a few more weeks of proof, I think a look at Coleman's
running chart and Breida's suggests that is how HC Kyle Shanahan
sees him as well.
Sub-four club
There's lots of good information in the table above, but my mind
was blown by three entries in the same column: Jordan Howard (4.0
YPC), LeSean McCoy (3.8) and Rashaad Penny (2.2) have not faced
a single stacked box in their combined 62 rushing attempts, yet
none of them are averaging more than four yards per carry. So
why was my mind blown? I didn't think it was possible for defenses
to go two full games without putting eight men in the box at least
once, even by accident. Given the quality of the offensive lines
in Buffalo and Seattle, it is not overly surprising Penny and
McCoy find themselves struggling to hit the league average YPC
mark, although poor line play is far from the only reason both
have struggled.
The stunner of the group, however, was Howard. By comparison,
Howard saw eight men in the box 43.1 percent of the time in 2017.
Some credit needs to go to Chicago's new and improved supporting
cast for striking some fear into defensive coordinators, but even
more credit needs to go to new HC Matt Nagy for opening things
up, especially considering how much more development Mitch Trubisky
needs. Howard deserves the benefit of the doubt in regards to
his slow start given his track record, although his involvement
in the passing game has helped him from being a disappointment
for his fantasy owners. Chicago doesn't have a viable alternative
to him if things don't change (so he's not in danger of losing
his job), but a league-average YPC behind a good line for a runner
with the vision and patience of Howard isn't good enough. Perhaps
a visit to Arizona in Week 3 (and more volume, as Nagy hinted
this week) is just what he needs.
Pick up the pace, buddy
A running back spending an average of more than three seconds
behind the line of scrimmage is not necessarily a problem per
se, but here are the backs who are at that mark or below through
two games: Saquon Barkley (3.02), Carlos Hyde (3.02), Bilal Powell
(3.04), Kenyan Drake (3.04), Todd Gurley (3.05), Adrian Peterson
(3.11), McCoy (3.15) and Ezekiel Elliott (3.19). All but two -
Barkley (4.6) and Elliott (4.6) are averaging at or below four
yards per carry, and Barkley's mark was obviously aided by the
fact he broke loose for a 68-yard score late in Week 1 - a single
run which accounts for 50.8 percent of his total rushing yards
thus far. All of the aforementioned backs are seeing eight defenders
in the box at least 20 percent of the time, with Powell surprisingly
leading the group at 35.29 percent and Peterson close behind at
35.14.
Just in case owners needed some more statistical proof as to
why Chris Carson should be playing more often than Penny right
now, here is some: Penny's efficiency (or lack thereof) is at
7.68. For some perspective, Derrick Henry's 6.05 mark would be
the worst in the three-year Next Gen Stats era. In case readers
are wondering what Carson's efficiency is, so is the rest of the
world. Carson's 13 carries aren't enough to qualify for the list.
Per PFF, Carson has avoided five tackles on 16 touches, while
Penny has avoided one in 21. Considering one of Penny's strengths
coming out of college was his ability to break tackles, this is
troubling - even only two games into his NFL career. And remember
how Seattle claimed this was going to be the year it got back
to running the ball? The Seahawks have 38 rushing attempts through
two games, including only five from Russell Wilson. While former
OC Darrell Bevell was not a play-calling genius by any stretch
of the imagination, new OC Brian Schottenheimer has made this
offense noticeably worse so far. Maybe he deserves a bit of a
pass because he really hasn't had Doug Baldwin at his disposal,
but Wilson isn't running and there is no commitment to the ground
game.
Resistance is not always futile
For reasons beyond my comprehension, defenses are stacking the
box 31.43 percent of the time on Peyton Barber. He's averaging
2.6 YPC. Tevin Coleman is facing a stacked box 36 percent of the
time and averaging five yards per carry. A mistake most owners
make (and most coaches seem to, for that matter) is not understanding
that certain types of runs - and the situations in which they
are executed - are naturally going to net more yards than others.
I have never believed in the concept of "hot hands"
in the backfield, but anyone (coaches included) who uses yards
per carry as proof of this phenomenon is akin to a realtor who
wants to sell a house without showing off the inside. (In other
words, there is so much more to analyzing running back performance,
but I digress.) Coleman's game chart is a clear reflection of
a play-caller who understands what he is. I think the same can
be said for Barber. The difference? Atlanta blocks better, Coleman
is more explosive and runs outside more often to accentuate his
explosiveness. As a result, he is less likely to get tracked down
by a defensive lineman who is moving parallel to the line of scrimmage
because he isn't going to be able to keep up. Barber is almost
exclusively running
between the tackles (all but six of his attempts have been
charted inside the hashes) and doing so with a less-talented line.
Of course, I'd rather have Coleman, but the point is that it is
much more difficult to break off the long runs that boost YPC
if a back is always running inside. Defenses track these tendencies
as well, so backs like Barber are running against defenses and
usually have a good idea where he will run to on any given play.
(AFC/NFC) Northern exposure
One more interesting comparison is between Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray in the Minnesota backfield. While it's no secret Cook (5.34,
fifth-lowest among qualified backs) is the more elusive of the
two, Murray (3.54 eight-highest) has been substantially more efficient
per Next Gen Stats' metric. Cook (11.54 percent) has seen eight
in the box less than half as much as Murray (26.67), although
there is plenty of reason to believe defenses aren't stacking
the box against Cook because they know how dangerous he is as
a receiver.
Let's wrap this up with a comparison which I'm sure will go over
well: 2018 James Conner versus 2017 Le'Veon Bell.
Conner has been a more north-south runner (3.9 for Conner, 4.17
for Bell), although that is hardly a surprise given Bell's trademark
patience. Conner has seen eight men in the box 46.15 percent of
the time, while Bell ran against a stacked front 19.94 percent
of the time. Conner has also been faster to the line of scrimmage
(2.93 versus 3.11), which goes pretty much hand-in-hand with what
I said two sentences earlier.
*************
Two games do not a season make, so treat this information for
what it is: some early trends. This is data I plan on revisiting
sometime over the next month when we have more of a sample size.
In the meantime, I would advise everyone to bookmark Next
Gen Stats and visit the site at least once a week.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.