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Weekly Fantasy Finishes - Tight Ends



By Doug Orth | 11/18/21 |

About this time every year, I like to shine a light on each position and focus on how they fared among their peers on a weekly basis. While I am very much a believer that fantasy football is a weekly game and play the matchups as much as anything when it comes to fringe starters, there is something to be said for the handful of players who stack one top 10 or top 20 finish upon another. Among other things, it suggests that defenses have not found an answer to slowing him down (or that the offensive play-caller consistently puts him in positions to succeed).

Knowing how each player ranked among his position group each week is a handy little tool - whether you want a quick reference guide in your redraft leagues to help set expectations for a certain player or need an idea on the range of a player's performances to help break a tie between two or three options in your DFS lineups.

For the sake of time and space (not to mention my sanity), not every player that has scored a fantasy point appears below. The first cutoff was the player had at least five non-zero games, which should theoretically remove non-regular players and minimize any fluky occurrences. The last qualification was for the receiver to post an average rank of at least 24 (the worst finish for a TE2).

Key to the table below:

AR - Average weekly finish
Max - Best weekly fantasy finish
Min - Worst weekly fantasy finish
TE1 - How often he finished among the top 12 at his position
TE2 - How often he finished between 13th and 24th at his position
TE1% - Percentage of TE1 finishes
TE2% - Percentage of TE2 finishes

QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs
 Weekly Ranks for TEs
Rk Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 G AR Max Min TE1 TE2 TE% TE2%
1 Travis Kelce 4 1 4 26 6 3 7 24 3 1 10 7.9 1 26 8 1 80.0% 10.0%
2 Mike Gesicki 20 3 7 17 2 3 12 15 8 9.9 2 20 5 3 62.5% 37.5%
3 Darren Waller 2 9 13 10 15 12 B 4 20 8 10.6 2 20 5 3 62.5% 37.5%
4 George Kittle 9 26 5 21 B 2 5 6 11.3 2 26 4 1 66.7% 16.7%
5 Mark Andrews 33 11 6 13 1 4 18 B 15 3 9 11.6 1 33 5 3 55.6% 33.3%
6 T.J. Hockenson 3 2 36 20 34 7 11 1 B 8 14.3 1 36 5 1 62.5% 12.5%
7 Dawson Knox 21 12 9 2 4 26 B 35 7 15.6 2 35 4 1 57.1% 14.3%
8 Hunter Henry 26 24 19 11 5 14 14 30 13 2 10 15.8 2 30 3 5 30.0% 50.0%
9 Kyle Pitts 23 8 24 18 3 B 2 35 18 12 9 15.9 2 35 4 4 44.4% 44.4%
10 Noah Fant 7 7 31 8 28 1 17 39 10 9 16.4 1 39 5 1 55.6% 11.1%
11 Dallas Goedert 6 28 19 8 30 8 4 21 26 9 16.7 4 30 4 2 44.4% 22.2%
12 Tyler Conklin 21 32 2 27 31 16 B 8 14 4 9 17.2 2 32 3 3 33.3% 33.3%
13 Dalton Schultz 15 30 1 5 7 8 B 38 15 39 9 17.6 1 39 4 2 44.4% 22.2%
14 Tyler Higbee 9 48 8 22 12 20 15 25 11 9 10 17.9 8 48 5 3 50.0% 30.0%
15 Evan Engram 35 23 11 29 13 9 9 B 7 18.4 9 35 3 2 42.9% 28.6%
16 Ricky Seals-Jones 15 35 14 6 10 37 B 23 7 20.0 6 37 2 3 28.6% 42.9%
17 Dan Arnold 44 17 29 29 10 32 B 2 12 7 9 20.2 2 44 4 1 44.4% 11.1%
18 Pat Freiermuth 37 18 11 43 46 10 B 3 1 17 9 20.7 1 46 4 2 44.4% 22.2%
19 C.J. Uzomah 29 43 1 41 14 1 17 25 B 8 21.4 1 43 2 2 25.0% 25.0%
20 Jared Cook 13 25 28 4 37 11 B 29 10 42 9 22.1 4 42 3 1 33.3% 11.1%
21 Zach Ertz 30 54 7 12 54 8 6 15 28 13 10 22.7 6 54 4 2 40.0% 20.0%
22 David Njoku 13 30 6 2 48 31 18 19 41 9 23.1 2 48 2 3 22.2% 33.3%
23 Juwan Johnson 5 34 15 B 39 24 5 23.4 5 39 1 2 20.0% 40.0%
24 Donald Parham 37 16 9 37 B 7 35 6 23.5 7 37 2 1 33.3% 16.7%
25 MyCole Pruitt 19 44 32 16 12 31 16 7 24.3 12 44 1 3 14.3% 42.9%
26 Mo Alie-Cox 41 33 3 19 17 9 32 43 8 24.6 3 43 2 2 25.0% 25.0%

While Travis Kelce has not provided the significant positional advantage he has in recent years, it is not as if he has been a bust. What he has been for his fantasy managers is a weekly TE1 in all but two games. As I discussed in July's Anatomy of a League Winner - TE piece (and several other spots since), managers were pushing their luck if they were hoping for another truly elite effort from a tight end during his age-32 season.

The bigger surprise here is probably Mike Gesicki, although his overall ranking (TE3) and even his spot in this analysis needs some context. The Dolphins have been one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league this season, which should not have come as much of a shock to anyone who remembers my offensive line piece from late June (The Big Uglies - AFC). What most people were not predicting was Miami playing without Will Fuller (missed all but two games, out since Week 4) and DeVante Parker (missed five games, out since Week 8) for so many games. Jaylen Waddle and Gesicki have been force-fed as a result. In short, Gesicki's volume (he is tied with Mark Andrews for third among tight ends with 69 targets) is going to leave him in a great position to continue racking up top 12 and top 24 finishes, although last week was a prime example of why I would struggle with him as my top option every week.

1) Tight end has not been the cesspool it often is in 2021. Nine players have finished inside the weekly TE1 ranks in half of their games, while another seven have done it 40 percent of the time. Even more encouraging, two players from that second group appear poised to join the first group. Dan Arnold and Pat Freiermuth have each registered two top-seven finishes in the last three weeks and are getting the kind of volume necessary to maintain their recent level of play.

2) There should never be a game in which T.J. Hockenson sees only one target, regardless of whether his quarterback only attempted 25 passes or not. HC Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties for the Iowa product's forgettable performance in Week 10, putting an inglorious end to Hockenson's three-game streak of TE1 finishes. His fantasy managers also experienced a stretch in Weeks 3-5 in which Detroit was slow to adjust to defenses adjusting to Hockenson. Like Gesicki, he will bust on occasion because of his quarterback and play-caller situation.

3) Pitts has been exceeded the hype in some ways and disappointed in others, but it would be completely inaccurate to say he has been a disappointment. We saw an example of his incredible future in Week 5 (9-119-1) and Week 7 (7-163-0). Since that game, Calvin Ridley has not been with the team due to a personal matter. In his last three outings (all without Ridley), the primary defenders on Pitts have been Stephon Gilmore, Marshon Lattimore and Trevon Diggs. In other words, he is not only being asked to be his team's primary receiver as a rookie, but Atlanta's opponents are also treating him as the primary receiver. As such, we have only seen one TE1 performance from him over that stretch. For his sake (as well as the Falcons' playoff hopes), fantasy managers can only hope Ridley is ready to return to the game soon.

3) Enjoy the Hunter Henry experience for as long as you can. Henry is the overall TE3 over the last five weeks despite not seeing more than four targets in any game. To say he is due for some major touchdown regression would be an understatement, if only because he is averaging a score every three catches since Week 3. Perhaps the most interesting part of Henry, however, is that last week's two-TD effort was his first TE1-level performance since Week 5. It is almost unfathomable that a tight end could score five touchdowns over a five-game period and finish as a TE1 only once.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.