A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks.
Below are five reader questions (submitted via X or the FFT forum)
and my answers. Any special scoring rules will also appear in
the question or immediately thereafter.
jrokh: (Half PPR) Need two out of these four receivers: Malik
Nabers (vs. BAL), Jordan Addison (vs. CHI), Adam Thielen (vs.
DAL) and Calvin Ridley (@CIN).
The short answer: Addison and Thielen.
My rationale: Despite everything that has transpired
in New York this season, Nabers has established a 10-point floor
in half-PPR. His biggest problem - besides the occasional injury
scare - is that Daniel Jones is no longer around to force-feed
him the ball and the combination of Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito
cannot extend drives long enough to put Nabers in position to
take over in the red zone. Nabers has not scored a touchdown since
Week 3 and has only been targeted inside the 20 once since late
September. He is by no means an easy sit in fantasy, but he is
not a must-start either. Regarding his matchup this week, the
Ravens decided to have S Kyle Hamilton play more of a free safety
role after Ja'Marr Chase burned them badly for the second time
this year in Week 10. They have fared much better against receivers
since.
Previous matchups probably do not tell fantasy managers as much
as many believe, but it is at least notable that Addison posted
26.2 half-PPR fantasy points in a Week 12 meeting against the
Bears. The rematch will be played in a dome, so weather will not
be a factor. Jaylon Johnson will line up across Justin Jefferson
on the majority of snaps, which means we can probably expect Jefferson
to have a below-average outing by his standards. That leaves T.J. Hockenson going up a defense that has yielded only three touchdowns
to tight ends this season and Addison running most of his routes
against Tyrique Stevenson. That setup obviously worked out well
for Addison in the first matchup. Does it mean the Bears will
stick with the same defensive philosophy three weeks later? Of
course not. Then again, former HC Matt Eberflus was the defensive
play-caller until he was fired shortly after the Thanksgiving
Day loss to Detroit. We see how well that worked out for Chicago
in its first game with DC Eric Washington in charge (38-13 loss
to the 49ers last week). In short, I would not expect the Bears'
defense to change much from Week 12. While a repeat of Addison's
8-162-1 showing in the first meeting is unlikely, he should have
the best matchup of any Minnesota pass-catcher for most of the
day.
Since returning to a full-time role following his two-month IR
stint in Week 13, the 34-year-old Thielen has earned a 26.3-percent
target share and caught 81 percent of his 21 targets. Of the four
receivers being discussed here, he probably has the second-best
quarterback situation, which would have been unthinkable at the
time he suffered his hamstring injury in Week 3. While his 8-99-1
showing in Week 13 could have been passed off as a fluke given
how forgiving the Tampa Bay defense has been against receivers
this season, his 9-102-0 effort versus the Eagles last week tells
us he is probably a must-start for the rest of the season. Given
all the injuries in Dallas, the strongest part of its defense
now is probably the secondary. With that said, Carolina's path
to win this week (and for the rest of the year) will be relying
heavily on Chuba Hubbard on the ground and Thielen through the
air.
Ridley has been a serviceable - yet highly volatile - WR3 since
the DeAndre Hopkins trade, but last week's usage concerns me.
The 12 targets and 37.5-percent target share were not what was
worrisome (those are the numbers fantasy managers love from their
receivers), but a run-heavy game plan against a weak secondary
and a 6.1 aDOT is not what his managers signed up for or expected.
The good news this week is that Tennessee may not have a choice
but to air it out against the Bengals. Will HC Brian Callahan
go back to using Ridley on more vertical routes? It seems likely,
but it is enough of a question mark to make me wonder: will we
see the version of Ridley that shredded the Lions, Patriots and
Chargers for 20 catches, 300 yards and two touchdowns over a three-week
stretch in Weeks 8-10 again this season?
weepaws: (Non-PPR) I am currently starting Brian Thomas Jr.
(vs. NYJ) and Jakobi Meyers (vs. ATL). Do I need to replace one
or both with Jayden Reed (@SEA), DK Metcalf (vs. GB) or Adam Thielen
(vs. DAL)?
The short answer: Meyers and Thielen.
My rationale: Since Reed led the Packers' wideouts in fantasy
points in four of the first five weeks of the season, it has been
a complete toss-up which Green Bay receiver is worth a start in
fantasy. Beginning in Week 6, the highest-scoring fantasy wideout
in Green Bay has been as follows (in order): Doubs-Wicks-Doubs-Reed-Watson-Heath-Reed-Watson.
Outside of the issue of selecting the right Packer receiver, Reed's
16.7-point explosion in non-PPR in Week 13 marked only the second
time in about two months that a Green Bay receiver scored more
than 11.3 fantasy points. Seattle is also playing good enough
defense lately to convince me to sit Reed.
Metcalf's targets since his return from a knee sprain in Week
11 do not look much different from what he had during the second
half of last season. The difference this year is that his touchdown
luck has dried up (one since Week 3). It is not helping his cause
that his only two red zone targets since his return came in the
same game and were both incomplete. (In fact, Geno Smith is 2-of-8
for 11 yards and no touchdowns when targeting Metcalf inside the
20 this year. Conversely, Smith is 6-of-12 for 59 yards and four
TDs when targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the same range.) Never
mind the fact the Packers have largely stifled perimeter receivers
this season. (The best effort any outside wideout has had against
Green Bay lately was Tyreek Hill on Thanksgiving night when he
caught a deflected pass intended for Jonnu Smith in the end zone
for a touchdown. Otherwise, we are looking at a long stretch of
time since a receiver topped 60 yards AND scored a touchdown.)
I would also be OK with sitting Metcalf given the other options
available.
Thomas is mildly interesting from the standpoint that Jacksonville
is making more of an effort recently to force-feed him. It is
also encouraging he has averaged six catches for 81 yards while
facing some stiff cornerback competition over the last two weeks
(Derek Stingley Jr. and Tennessee's underrated secondary). The
thing that scares me the most about starting Thomas right now
- outside of having to rely on Mac Jones - is WHEN he is seeing
most of his targets. Eleven of Thomas' 12 targets last week came
after halftime. His first catch did not come until the 4:30 mark
of the third quarter (when the Jags trailed 6-3). In Week 13,
eight of his 10 targets came after the break and 56 of his 76
yards came on what was something resembling two receivers setting
a moving screen for him. It feels as if Thomas' production is
built on a house of cards at times. The matchup this week - while
not as difficult as it appeared before the season - is against
a Jets defense that ranks as the fourth-stingiest matchup against
receivers. Can Thomas succeed in a matchup where Metcalf mostly
struggled two weeks earlier with a better quarterback? Especially
when we consider how much touchdown upside the Jacksonville offense
has right now, I would rather place my postseason fate somewhere
else.
Since I discussed Thielen earlier and already suggested he will
not be leaving my lineups during the fantasy playoffs, I will
briefly detail why Meyers is worth starting as well. While target
quality matters (something Meyers probably will not have moving
forward), he is seeing massive volume with at least 10 targets
in three straight and four of five. It is also hard to sit a player
with that kind of volume against a defense that ranks as the third-most
forgiving unit against receivers this season. Four receivers have
topped 100 receiving yards over the last five weeks against the
Falcons, who have also surrendered 10 scores to the position over
that stretch. Meyers might be the unlikeliest of the five receivers
in this question to score a touchdown considering the offense
he plays on, but he is probably the most likely to push for a
35-percent target share in a favorable matchup.
pipeman: (PPR) I am starting Chase Brown (@TEN) and Brian Robinson
Jr. (@NO) at running back, Puka Nacua (@SF) and Drake London (@LV)
at receiver and Rico Dowdle (@CAR) in the flex. Would you make
any changes with Jonathan Taylor (@DEN), Deebo Samuel (vs. LAR)
and Brian Thomas Jr. (vs. NYJ) on the pine?
Also, the Pittsburgh DST has served me well, but a bad playoff
stretch (@PHI, @BAL, vs. KC) has me searching. Drop them and stream,
or trust the process?
The short answer: Taylor over Dowdle. Keep everything else the
same. As for the DST, I would rather find another stable alternative
than stream. If that is not possible, keep the Steelers.
My rationale: My only question is at the flex spot. If any of
the other first four players mentioned above disappoint this week,
you can live with it as a fantasy manager. Thomas was discussed
earlier and Samuel has become a bit of an afterthought in the
49ers offense.
The decision between Dowdle and Taylor comes down to matchup
versus talent, in my opinion. The Panthers have surrendered league-high
marks in rush attempts (361), rushing yards (1,802) and rushing
touchdowns (15) to running backs this season (NFL-high 28.9 fantasy
points/game allowed per game). Denver ranks 18th (22.0). Taylor
has a significant edge in talent and a slight edge in projected
volume. Dowdle is more involved in the passing game, while Taylor
has a much better chance of breaking a long run.
There is a distinct possibility I am allowing myself to be swayed
by recency bias, but I was very impressed by the Panthers' ability
to hold Saquon Barkley to an average (for him) day in Week 14.
Carolina has given up four 100-yard rushers over the last five
weeks, but all of them received significant volume and do not
lack in terms of explosiveness (Alvin Kamara, Tyrone Tracy, Bucky Irving and Barkley). Dowdle is not on that level. Unlike at least
two of those other games, the Panthers could control the action
against the Cowboys. If Dallas had the offensive line it had for
most of the last 10 years, Dowdle would be an easy call because
he should push for 20 touches again. He only has one rushing touchdown,
further lowering his upside. While he has made up for that by
scoring three receiving touchdowns, those are hard to count on
at running back.
On the other side of the equation, Taylor's viability as a starter
this week boils down to how much we want to believe in his talent.
His offensive line is not nearly as good now as the one he ran
behind in Week 1. However, I cannot shake the idea that Taylor
will break off a long run against a defense that has faced top-tier
running backs very often. The last time it faced a true power
running back in Taylor's class was in Week 10 against Derrick Henry (23-106-2). No one should expect that level of production
from Taylor this week, but he should handle a similar workload.
If he gets that level of volume, I will take 23-25 touches from
Taylor over 18-20 from Dowdle.
Regarding the Steelers' defense, I had to make this decision
a few weeks ago (cutting the Steelers and trying to find a better
DST for the postseason. I made the switch to the Eagles where
I could. If you are happy with getting a few sacks each week and
maybe a turnover (in other words, a decent floor), then stick
with Pittsburgh. In the fantasy postseason, I usually favor chasing
at least average DSTs in matchups that I believe will result in
multiple turnovers. If the Eagles, Broncos or Vikings are not
available (which is likely), I would rather take a shot at the
upside of a team like the Ravens (@NYG). I would not drop the
Steelers for DST units such as the Bengals (@TEN) or Falcons (@LV)
just because they have juicy matchups, however.
Bills04: (PPR) Hunter Henry (vs. ARI), Dalton Kincaid (@DET)
or Juwan Johnson (vs. WAS)?
The short answer: Henry.
My rationale: I have this same dilemma in a league (Henry or
Kincaid). As noted by Bills04 in his original question in the
forum, Henry is the only consistently productive pass-catcher
New England has had this year. That is the reason why I will roll
with Henry. While the matchup has to be part of the equation when
answering questions such as this one, Kincaid draws the stingiest
defense against tight end this season. Maybe that fact does not
mean as much in what should be a shootout, but Kincaid is probably
the third or fourth option in the Buffalo offense now (as opposed
to the No. 1 option many projected him to be this summer). The
Lions have allowed 40-plus yards to a tight end three times this
season. Only two tight ends have found the end zone against them.
I don't like counting on players overcoming such significant odds
in the fantasy playoffs, so Kincaid is a sit for me.
Henry's matchup is not much easier than Kincaid's, but I can
at least make the case that Arizona has not faced many "name"
tight ends. We also know with very few exceptions that Henry will
be targeted at a decent clip and see some action in the red zone
when New England gets there. Johnson would be more interesting
to me if Derek Carr (hand) was available, but the latter is supposed
to miss the rest of the season after suffering a bad injury to
his hand in Week 14. Jake Haener is expected to draw the start
under center this week. While Haener may eventually prove to be
a serviceable backup in the league, I do not want to rely on a
middling quarterback talent making his first NFL start to make
my tight end productive - no matter how talented he might be.
polecatt: (Dynasty league; one point per 50 passing yards, one
point per 25 rushing yards, six points for all touchdowns, six-point
bonus for TDs over 40 yards and an additional three-point bonus
for TDs over 50 yards, six-point bonus for 300 yards passing)
Baker Mayfield (@LAC), C.J. Stroud (vs. MIA), Drake Maye (@ARI)
or Anthony Richardson (@DEN)?
The short answer: Mayfield.
My rationale: The scoring tells us we want to swing big. We want
to focus on touchdowns and big plays rather than if one quarterback
throws for 227 yards and runs for 31 versus another one who passes
for 191 and runs for 52. However, the math changes a little bit
if one of these quarterbacks can throw for 300 yards.
From a matchup perspective for these four quarterbacks, it is
a wash. Mayfield's matchup versus the Chargers is the easiest,
although I am not sure the Chargers are much different from the
stingiest matchup (the Dolphins) all things considered. Mayfield
has only thrown for 300-plus yards once since Chris Godwin was
lost for the season in Week 7. Conversely, the Chargers have allowed
only one 300-yard passer all year. Stroud's matchup is the worst
of the bunch, as Miami has yielded only 14 total touchdowns to
quarterbacks this season. Several quarterbacks have flirted with
300 yards passing against the Dolphins, but the lack of touchdown
upside combined with the middling Texans' offense is enough to
steer me away from him.
Maye has yet to hit 300 yards passing. He has also not accounted
for more than two scores since his first career start in Week
6. He has been a solid floor play in leagues with more traditional
scoring, but games with 30-40 yards rushing in this scoring setup
mean less than they do in most leagues. Richardson has almost
no shot of throwing for 300 and Denver has been very good at limiting
passing yardage outside of Jameis Winston's eruption on Monday
night in Week 13.
The odds any of these players will score a rushing touchdown
from 40-plus yards out is slim, so we move onto the possibility
one of them might throw for a score of that length. Mayfield has
two 40-yard touchdown throws (one of 50-plus), Stroud has one
(one of 50-plus), Maye has one (none over 50) and Richardson has
three (all over 50). While Richardson is the best bet of the bunch
to hit a big play, he is not doing it often enough to convince
me to go with him here.
Thus, we come back to the best bet of the bunch to score multiple
touchdowns and throw for 300 yards: Mayfield. Not only is it possible
that Tampa Bay will need to score 21-28 points to make up for
its defense, but the Chargers have also been a decent run-stopping
defense this season. It means he could throw 40-plus times. Mike Evans is usually a reasonable bet for a big play to boot. I'm
not overly thrilled about giving Mayfield the nod over Richardson
here, but he is a far better bet for multiple touchdowns and 300
yards passing than last year's No. 4 overall pick.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.