Team Fit: Were it not for a slow 40 time (4.61),
the likelihood is that 6-3 and 213-pound Florida State product
would have gone within the first 20 or so picks. There just are
not a lot of receivers who can block, possess his size with 32-plus
inch arms and the ability to post a 38-inch vertical jump. Consider
him the new-and-improved Gabe Davis. Coleman's age (21 in May)
also gives him a theoretical upside that not many other receivers
in this class have. Along with his poor time in the 40, another
knock on his profile might have been his lack of success on contested
catches in 2023 (10-for-30), although that may have been an indictment
on QB Jordan Travis since Coleman was very good in two years at
Michigan State (12-for-18) before his transfer. In Buffalo, he
probably only needs to beat out Mack Hollins and Justin Shorter
to be featured in three-wide sets with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel. The likelihood is that OC Joe Brady anticipates Coleman
to assume the same kind of role that Gabe Davis had in 2023. Along
with TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, Coleman should eventually
emerge as a favorite target of Josh Allen's in the red zone and
the team's primary vertical threat.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? It
is hard to imagine Coleman enjoying more relevancy as a rookie
than a four-year veteran like Davis did last year. Considering
it is not a given that he beats out Hollins to be a Week 1 starter
(especially on early downs since Hollins is a good blocker himself),
Coleman should be considered a late-round, high-upside stash at
best.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
In superflex leagues, Coleman will probably come off the board
in the middle part of the second round. In one-quarterback leagues,
he may be selected within the top 15 picks.
Team Fit: McConkey's biggest crime may be that he looks like
an average-sized receiver at 6-0 and 186 pounds. It is a shame
because he plays the receiver position about as well as one could
hope for from a college receiver. His selection suggests new HC
Jim Harbaugh will likely be content heading into the 2024 season
with a three-wide set of Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer on the
outside and McConkey in the slot. The question becomes whether
Johnston and Palmer are valuable enough as blockers to keep McConkey
off the field on early downs. If one of them is not up to the
task in the run game (Johnston would be the most likely candidate
to fall short there), then McConkey will probably serve as Justin Herbert's favorite target right away.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Preseason reports about
any improvement Johnston has made figure to have the biggest effect
on McConkey's immediate fantasy viability. He should be considered
the favorite to lead the team in catches as a rookie, but what
that means in this overhauled run-heavy offense is another story.
Consider him a decent WR4 option in early drafts.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? It would
be a bit much to suggest McConkey will be Herbert's new Keenan Allen, but the possibility does exist. McConkey warrants a late
first-round pick in superflex leagues and deserves consideration
as high as the 1.08 in one-quarterback leagues.
2.05 - WR Ja'Lynn Polk, Patriots
Team Fit: Polk is the kind of receiver that most teams need,
as he is a tough and strong player who can block and will sacrifice
his body to make the play downfield. He tracks the ball exceedingly
well and makes the quarterback look good with his full-extension
adjustments to the ball in flight despite his "average"
athletic profile. In other words, it is not a surprise he was
appealing to New England. However, the Patriots' receiving corps
desperately needs a player who could one day emerge as Drake Maye's
clear top option and Polk is highly unlikely to be that guy, if
only because he lacks a special quality. The Patriots likely view
Polk initially as a third or fourth receiver whose value will
lie in the ability to play all three receiver spots.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? It will be difficult
for any New England wideout not named Kendrick Bourne or Demario Douglas to be relevant in fantasy this year, and even that might
be expecting too much. Polk can be avoided in most redraft leagues.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Draft capital
(oh, how I despise the term) will likely make Polk a player who
is selected in the first three rounds of superflex or one-quarterback
leagues. In a better situation, that might be a decent play since
Polk could be a solid complementary receiver. With Jacoby Brissett
likely starting most of this year and Maye expected to take some
lumps for a rebuilding team in 2025, Polk is probably not worth
waiting on outside of the deepest formats.
Team Fit: New HC Dave Canales must have seen what I saw on tape,
as one of my comps for Brooks was the running back he just coached
to a banner year (Rachaad White). The 20-year-old, who was one
of Bijan Robinson's backups at Texas, is a more complete back
than White. Not only does he possess the same kind of receiving
skills, but Brooks also offers more power and contact balance
than the Bucs' breakout running back. The second-team All-Big
12 selection would have likely been a first-round pick were it
not for the torn right ACL he suffered in November. The Panthers
will almost certainly start Brooks off in a committee with Chuba Hubbard, but the rookie - assuming he can fully trust his knee
around midseason - may not need much time before he takes over
the backfield. At worst, the two will split duties most of the
year before Brooks emerges as the clear lead back in 2025.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Brooks may end up being
the only rookie running back that has a real chance to be named
as a Week 1 starter, although the timing of his injury - and the
subsequent timeline for a return to form - casts much doubt on
that possibility. It also seems unlikely we will see the best
he has to offer until 2025 given the timing of his injury and
long recovery. Nevertheless, the Texas product should have RB2
upside as a rookie if he gets the expected volume and warrants
a selection in the fourth or fifth round of drafts as long as
his recovery stays on track.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? In superflex
leagues, Brooks should be considered the clear RB1 and is worthy
of a pick in the 1.06-1.10 range. In one-quarterback leagues,
he could come off the board as early as 1.04 if there is a team
in desperate need of help at running back.
Team Fit: The Colts do not mind taking risks in the draft, especially
if they possess elite traits. Mitchell has elite traits (4.34
speed, 39.5-inch vertical and 11' 4" broad jump at 6-2 and
205 pounds, which makes him one of the most athletic wide receiver
prospects in NFL Combine history). Not only does his selection
likely mean the beginning of the end for Alec Pierce, but it should
also loosen up the middle of the field for Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs AND allow Anthony Richardson to show
off his big arm. Mitchell has alpha receiver upside and showed
up in big games for Georgia and Texas, but he largely disappointed
with his few run-after-catch opportunities, did not do much in
contested-catch situations and was too much of a hit-or-miss producer
when the lights were not as bright. As a player who will only
be 21 years of age when the season starts, he will have plenty
of time to prove some of the red flags that came up over the last
couple of months (such as interviewing poorly with teams) and
his overall inconsistency were the result of circumstance and
not immaturity.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? As long as Mitchell
beats out Pierce as expected, the rookie should be considered
a high-celling, low-floor fantasy WR5 option.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? In superflex
leagues, Mitchell's athleticism alone probably warrants a selection
in the early second round - even though it will likely take some
time for fantasy managers to receive a consistent payoff for their
patience. In one-quarterback leagues, Mitchell will probably come
off the board late in the first.
2.21 - TE Ben Sinnott, Commanders
Team Fit: Adam Peters worked with the 49ers for seven years before
taking the general manager job in Washington this offseason. Over
that time, he saw how much value a Swiss Army knife like Kyle Juszczyk had on their offense. It is expected Sinnott will play
a similar role, although that kind of role has never truly existed
before in a Kliff Kingsbury-led offense. There is also a distinct
possibility Peters or Kingsbury simply believes Sinnott will as
the successor to Zach Ertz, who was added in free agency this
spring. The latter is a possibility as the Iowa native led all
tight ends at the NFL Scouting Combine in the three-cone, vertical
and broad jump.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? He will go undrafted
in most leagues. As long as Ertz does not completely fall off
a cliff in his age-33 season, Sinnott's pass-catching role will
probably be minimal in 2024.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? This is
where it gets a bit interesting. If he is the true successor to Ertz, then he could have significant value in 2025. If he is the
next Juszczyk, then he will not be worth much in fantasy. As such,
he probably is not worth considering until the fourth round of
superflex or one-quarterback leagues.
Round 3
3.01 - WR Malachi Corley, Jets
Team Fit: Corley may not be a prototypical receiver at 5-11 and
215 pounds, but that does not mean he lacks upside. "The
YAC King" lived up to his nickname by forcing a ridiculous
40 missed tackles en route to rewriting several parts of Western
Kentucky's record book. He spent the majority of his time in the
slot with the Hilltoppers and figures to do the same for at least
the 2024 season in New York with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams
handling the majority of perimeter work. It is just as well since
Corley played 91.6 percent of his college snaps from the slot
and was not asked to run anything close to a full route tree.
It is unclear if New York has any plans of developing him as a
receiver or likes the idea of using him solely for his run-after-catch
skills, but there is not a lot of room for opportunity for him
right away outside of manufactured touches with Wilson, Williams
and Breece Hall all more deserving of regular targets.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Corley does enough after
the catch that he could provide the occasional spike performance,
but his role figures to be too unpredictable from week to week
to be worthy of a roster spot in most leagues with 18-man rosters.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Since Williams
is on a one-year contract, Corley could theoretically emerge as
Wilson's long-term complement in 2025. That possibility is enough
to make him worth a selection in the middle part of the second
round in superflex leagues and the early part of the second in
one-quarterback leagues.
Team Fit: With James Conner entering the final year of his contract,
Arizona likely felt the need to either find his long-term replacement
or protect itself against another one of his injury-related absences.
Considering how glowingly Arizona talks about Conner, it is unclear
at this time what the team's plans are. At the very least, Benson
gives the team someone who can handle a few touches to give Conner
a breather from time to time without experiencing much of a drop-off.
One thing is for sure, however: Benson gives the offense more
big-play ability than Conner without sacrificing much power. What
is less clear is why the Florida State product handled 16 or more
carries in a game only seven times in 26 games with the Seminoles.
He also has much work to do in pass pro, which may be what limits
his role as a rookie.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Conner's durability
issues make his likely handcuff a potentially valuable asset,
and Benson should win that job this summer. While he is unlikely
to get enough work to be a flex option in 2024, he could easily
have RB1 upside if/when Conner is sidelined. That alone makes
him a solid upside pick in the later rounds of drafts.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? The uncertainty
of Conner's long-term status with the team (considering he could
sign a short extension) should allow Benson to come at a slight
discount. Expect Benson to be drafted in the early second round
of most superflex and one-quarterback leagues.
3.16 - WR Jermaine Burton, Bengals
Team Fit: The likelihood is that Tee
Higgins will be gone at the end of the 2024 season, if not
before. Cincinnati might already have his long-term replacement
ready in Andrei
Iosivas, but the void left behind by the departure of long-term
slot Tyler Boyd
opens another avenue to playing time - although Burton played
inside only about a quarter of his snaps at Georgia and Alabama.
It is also quite possible that the Bengals also just want to give
Burton and Iosivas a full year to prove one of them can emerge
as the field-stretching complement to Ja’Marr
Chase.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Assuming Higgins is
not traded, the only way Burton has value in 2024 is if he surprisingly
emerges as the primary slot. That seems unlikely.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? This feels
more like a high-upside pick by the Bengals and less like a player
they expect to take over eventually for Higgins. Burton will likely
come off the board in the third round at the earliest in most
superflex and one-quarterback leagues.
Team Fit: Los Angeles must have seen the same things on film
as I did since my high-end comp for Corum was Kyren Williams.
The Rams would probably like to avoid having Williams average
23-plus touches for a second straight season, so expect the Big
Ten Running Back of the Year to have a meaningful role in this
offense early in the season. Corum may not be an elite runner
despite his gaudy production at Michigan, but he runs with more
power than one would expect for a 205-pounder. That fact alone
could lead to the rookie emerging as the primary option at the
goal line. In a worst-case scenario for Williams, Corum could
turn this into a split backfield, although HC Sean McVay tends
to prefer riding one back. Williams did more than enough to earn
the right to keep last season's role, so Corum may have to settle
for a pure backup job to begin the year.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Corum should quickly
emerge as one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy in an
offense that proved it wanted to run the ball last year. As such,
Corum is worth considering as a RB3 and possesses low-end RB1
if Williams is sidelined for any length of time.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Corum probably
has a better chance to see regular playing time more quickly than
Trey Benson and plays in a better offense, so the case can be
made for Corum to be an early second-round pick in superflex.
In one-quarterback leagues, he could sneak into the bottom third
of the first round.
3.20 - WR Roman Wilson, Steelers
Team Fit: Receivers with sub-4.4 speed, good hands and the ability
to change direction quickly without needing to slow down will
likely always be in demand in the league. One part of his game
that becomes clear almost immediately is his ability to find the
soft spot in zone coverage, which gives him a chance to be something
more than just another deep threat. These qualities should come
in handy for an offense that wants to run the ball as much as
the program Wilson is leaving (Michigan). He could not ask for
a better spot in terms of his hopes of finding immediate playing
time, since the Steelers’ best options at receiver after
George Pickens are Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins. Wilson may
not start Week 1, but it should not take him to change that.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Jefferson and Watkins
do not present much of a hurdle for Wilson, but the Steelers'
desire to add a veteran free-agent receiver could change that.
For now, Wilson should have some WR5 appeal simply because he
should be the second-most involved receiver in Pittsburgh.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Wilson should
be considered somewhere between the eighth- and 10th-best fantasy
receiver in this draft class, so he should begin receiving strong
consideration in the middle part of the second round in superflex
and one-quarterback leagues.
Team Fit: The value of Lloyd in the late third round was probably
too much for Green Bay to resist, but it could be a while before
the team finds a role for him after inking Josh Jacobs to a big
free-agent contract in March (four years, $48 million). Lloyd’s
arrival suggests this year will be the beginning of the end for
AJ Dillon, however. The problem with the fit is that the former
South Carolina and USC running back relies more on quickness and
speed, which means he is essentially a 220-pound scatback right
now playing behind a running back who is unlikely to come off
the field very often. Lloyd also never handled more than 129 touches
in any season and did not see much work in the passing game, making
him a poor complement to a player like Jacobs.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? There is a distinct
possibility Lloyd makes Dillon expendable. However, Jacobs was
paid very well to handle most of the work in Green Bay. Therefore,
Lloyd's fantasy appeal in 2024 figures to hinge on his ability
to win the backup job and serve as Jacobs' handcuff.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Lloyd probably
should not come off the board before the last part of the second
round in superflex leagues and the middle part of the second round
in one-quarterback leagues.
3.29 - WR Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers
Team Fit: While Tampa Bay is not the only team to do such a thing,
it makes little sense for the team to burn a third-round pick
at a position where it already has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and
Trey Palmer. This selection was likely made solely for depth purposes.
The most likely outcome is McMillan will play special teams and
share field-stretching duties with Palmer for the foreseeable
future. Considering how well Palmer played as a rookie in 2023,
McMillan may be limited to the former in his first pro season.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? As a likely fourth receiver
on an offense that struggled to support two at times in 2023 and
will be working under new OC Liam Coen in 2024, McMillan will
not be drafted in most leagues.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? McMillan
may have some appeal in rookie drafts that last more than three
rounds, but the odds are stacked against him being a major contributor
any time before 2026.
3.37 - WR Luke McCaffrey, Commanders
Team Fit: The Commanders have a screaming need for a slot receiver
and McCaffrey should be able to answer it. Better yet, new OC
Kliff Kingsbury has not been shy about using his slot throughout
most of his college and pro stops. McCaffrey possesses the athleticism
that one would expect with his family name (his 4.02-second short
shuttle and 6.70 three-cone both ranked top three among all participants
at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine) and immediately offers some
trick-play ability after spending the first three years of his
college career at quarterback. Not only does his arrival assure
Jahan Dotson will remain a starter, but it also gives new QB Jayden
Daniels a reliable target over the middle of the field.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Slot receivers have
typically been more involved - from a playing time perspective
- in Kingsbury's offenses than they are in most offenses, but
that does not always translate to more catches. That figures to
be the case here as well. It is uncertain if an injury to Terry McLaurin or Dotson would change much for him. As such, McCaffrey
will not be drafted in most leagues.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? McCaffrey
will likely be locked into slot duties for the foreseeable future
and is not a great bet to challenge McLaurin or Dotson for targets
very often. McCaffrey may have some appeal in rookie drafts that
last more than three rounds, but the odds are stacked against
him pushing for more than 50 catches anytime soon.
I did not discuss the following Day 2 prospect due to how
unlikely it is that he will be useful in fantasy at any point
in his early career:
3.18 TE Tip Reiman, Cardinals - The No. 82 overall
pick was one of the best blocking tight ends available in the
draft and will likely serve in the same role for Arizona.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive". Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.