DraftKings

Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player, followed by his projected point total. I will not spend a great deal of time explaining each projection here - only some of the more notable ones. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.

Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends:
P Yds - Passing Yards
P TD - Passing Touchdowns
INT - Interceptions
Ru Yds - Rushing Yards
Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns
Rec Yds - Receiving Yards
Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns
Rec - Receptions

2023 Divisional Round - 26-of-39 for 186 yards, one TD, no INTs; 12 carries for 72 yards and two TDs

2021 Divisional Round - 27-of-37 for 329 yards, four TDs, no INTs; 11 carries for 68 yards

2020 Divisional Round - 28-of-48 for 287 yards, two TDs and one INT; seven carries for 88 yards

What is abundantly clear is that Allen has been very successful as a runner against Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo, which is not overly surprising since the latter is known for blitzing. Spagnuolo's defenses also utilize man coverage more often than most teams and this year's unit is no exception. As most football-savvy people already know, mobile quarterbacks often do some of their best work against man defense because the majority of defenders have their eyes on their coverage assignment and not the quarterback. The regular-season victory over Kansas City in mid-November also marked the three-time Pro Bowler's season-high in rush attempts (12 for 55 yards). When we consider that Allen's season high in pass attempts in a game this season (40) also came against the Chiefs, it should come as no surprise if Bills OC Joe Brady runs James Cook into anticipated zone looks all day and rides Allen hard when Kansas City is expected to play man.

Jayden Daniels - Washington has not lost since its debacle against the Cowboys in Week 12. During the Commanders' seven-game winning streak, Daniels is averaging 65.8 yards rushing and 247.3 yards passing to go along with a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio in the six games he started and finished. The signature game of his rookie season came in a wild 36-33 comeback victory versus the Eagles in which he totaled 339 yards (258 passing) and threw for five touchdowns. The two parts of that game that some forget are how quickly Jalen Hurts was knocked out (he left for good with about 9 1/2 minutes left in the first quarter) and the Commanders' ability to overcome five turnovers.

One of the more difficult things to comprehend from that game was how much it was out of character for the Eagles' defense. Following a rough start to the season that saw Philadelphia give up at least 385 total yards three times in four pre-bye games, the Eagles have surrendered more than 300 yards only five times while winning 14 of 15. One important takeaway from Daniels' two playoff games is that he has led the team in rush attempts both times but done relatively little with those opportunities. The Eagles gave up 81 yards on the ground to Daniels in the wild Week 16 affair but allowed more than 20 yards rushing to one other quarterback all season (Lamar Jackson, 79). Philadelphia has utilized zone coverage about 74 percent of the time this season and will probably ramp that number up this weekend, making it less likely Daniels will have another banner day on the ground. Also working against another big rushing day for Daniels is the loss of RG Samuel Cosmi, who was lost for the season last week after tearing his ACL. Cosmi has easily been the team's best offensive lineman for most of his four-year professional career.

Patrick Mahomes - As I did earlier with Allen, let's consider what Mahomes has done against the Bills in their three playoff games - all wins - since 2020:

2023 Divisional Round - 17-of-23 for 215 yards, two TDs, no INTs; six carries for 19 yards

2021 Divisional Round - 33-of-44 for 378 yards, three TDs, no INTs; seven carries for 69 yards and one TD

2020 Divisional Round - 29-of-38 for 325 yards, three TDs and one INT; five carries for five yards

Much like Buffalo with Allen this year, Kansas City has not asked Mahomes to be Superman. In the Week 11 loss to the Bills, Mahomes did not register a single rush attempt for the first time since Week 5 of the 2023 season, which was par for the course for quarterbacks facing Buffalo this season. (The Bills tied the Dolphins for the third-fewest rush attempts by quarterbacks during the regular season.) It is also par for the course for most defenses in which HC Sean McDermott has a say in the matter, as his defenses typically are zone-heavy units with disciplined pass rushers.

This game will be one of the first times that the Chiefs will likely need to call on Mahomes to be something more than a game manager. It is also notable that Kansas City has a clear advantage in offensive weapons for the first time since these two teams became postseason rivals in 2020, especially when we include the return of Marquise Brown.

Jalen Hurts - There does not seem to be much doubt that Hurts will play this weekend. What is in some doubt is how limited he will be - especially as a runner - after suffering a knee injury in the Divisional Round win against the Rams. For that reason, I cannot imagine using him for DFS purposes - Mahomes is $500 cheaper and Daniels is only $500 more expensive. Even a slightly limited version of Hurts - again, as a runner - robs him of his "superpower" and makes him more of an average quarterback who has attempted more than 22 passes once in his last seven outings. As one might expect, the limited pass attempts have led to him throwing for less than 200 yards in those six run-heavy contests. When we also consider the likelihood that A.J. Brown (knee) is also probably playing at far less than 100 percent, Hurts has almost no chance of being a good fantasy play this weekend.

If Jalen Hurts shows any hint of mobility early in the game, Barkley will have a real chance to top what he did in the Eagles' first two meetings against Washington (26-146-2 in Week 11; 29-150-2 in Week 16). If Philadelphia makes it obvious early that it intends to limit how much Hurts will contribute as a runner, then the Commanders theoretically have a chance to hold him in check, relatively speaking. There within lies the rub, however. The Eagles have a huge and formidable offensive line, a bulldozer at quarterback and a home run threat in Barkley. Even if one of those things is not true this weekend (Hurts potentially being limited in this case), Philly could still be very effective pounding the rock. The big-play element might just be reduced a little.

One of the more interesting nuggets to come out of the Week 16 loss to the Commanders was that most of Barkley's rushing production came in the first quarter (109 yards on seven carries), when Washington likely still had reason to believe Hurts might have a chance to return to the game. With that said, Barkley is such a big part of what the Eagles do offensively that it would be an upset if he rushes for fewer than 120 yards.

James Cook - One common thread in the three games versus the Chiefs in which Cook has been Buffalo's bell-cow is that he has been heavily involved in the passing game, which has made his meager rushing contributions tolerable. In Week 11, he had five receptions. He had five and four, respectively, in the teams' two meetings last season. While Cook's history as a rusher versus the Chiefs has not been great, there are two reasons to believe he will top his personal best of 61 yards against them this week.

First and foremost, OC Joe Brady has entrusted Cook with two of his heaviest workloads of the season in the Bills' two playoff games (23 carries in the Wild Card Round, 17 in the Divisional Round) after capping that number at 15 over the final seven regular-season contests. The other major factor to consider is that Kansas City has given up an average of 175.5 rushing yards over its last two meaningful games. The Chiefs ended the regular season as the stingiest defense against running backs for fantasy purposes, but a big part of that stinginess was how dominant the run defense was over the first half of the season. If Buffalo remains committed to the run and can keep the game close enough for long enough (which it should), Cook should be able to justify his $6.900 price tag.

Austin Ekeler/Brian Robinson Jr. - The most common pivot from either Barkley or Cook this week will almost certainly be one of the two Washington running backs. With 87 yards rushing and a touchdown on 26 carries in two games against the Eagles this season, Robinson is unlikely to be a major consideration and will probably receive minimal attention from the Philly defense (at least compared to Jayden Daniels). Robinson is worth betting on if DFS players want to pull the contrarian card in hopes that the Commanders are working with a positive game script as much as they did last week against the Lions. The safer - and probably higher upside - play is Ekeler, who missed the Week 16 shootout. In the Week 11 affair, Ekeler as a receiver was one of the few sources of offense Washington had for long stretches. With the Eagles expected to be hyper-focused on containing Daniels as a runner and keeping him in the pocket as a passer, it would not be a shock if Ekeler receives plenty of work on swing routes and check-downs. If Philadelphia plays with the lead for most of the game as many expect, then Ekeler should also benefit as one of the main targets when Washington goes up-tempo.

Isiah Pacheco/Kareem Hunt - The Chiefs' running backs have been abysmal for over a month. Pacheco's lack of effectiveness is likely the result of his early-season leg injury. Hunt owned the backfield before Pacheco's return largely because he could be trusted not to fumble. The two players have been sharing rushing and receiving work for several weeks and neither one has topped 55 yards on the ground. Hunt has scored three times since Pacheco's Week 13 return, which does not create much enthusiasm that he will do it again despite a favorable matchup against the Bills. Buffalo did give up big games to some of the better running backs it faced during the regular season, but the Chiefs lack one with Pacheco not being 100 percent. Hunt will likely find some of my lineups in hopes he can find the end zone, but I am not optimistic about his upside. Pacheco has yet to top 61 total yards and failed to score since his return.

Marquise Brown continues to see his snaps increase by the game, but his bagel against Houston last week was discouraging if only because he had been so involved in the offense in his first two games as a Chief. While Buffalo's defense does a great job of keeping vertical receivers from getting over the top, Brown should be expected to be a full-time player this week (67 percent snap share versus the Texans) and bounce back as Kansas City uses him to attack the intermediate area of the field. Whereas Brown's snaps are increasing, Hopkins continues to see his playing time drop (31 percent against Houston). It would seem logical that Mahomes would want to use Hopkins' size against the Bills on one or two contested-catch opportunities, but it is hard to trust any receiver who is averaging about 10 routes over his last three outings - even one as accomplished as Hopkins.

Bills receivers - Although they are completely different receivers, Shakir is Buffalo's version of Worthy and the closest thing the Bills have to an alpha receiver. The Boise State product has been targeted at least six times in 12 straight and owns a ridiculous catch rate of 78 percent this season. While his sure hands are a key part of his success in that area, it helps that his aDOT is just five yards. Then again, part of the reason why he sees so many short targets is that he is one of the best in the league after the catch (597 yards). The primary reason why he could fail to repeat his 8-70-0 line from Week 11 is that he could be lining up across from Trent McDuffie in the slot more often than not.

If that ends up happening, it will likely fall upon the shoulders of Cooper, Coleman, Hollins or Samuel to pick up the slack. The problem with that is Samuel is the only one of the group with more than four targets or two catches during the playoffs. This week would seem like a great time for the Bills to unleash Cooper, but he - like Hopkins - is a well-established player who is playing about much less than one might expect. Over the last three games, he has logged about a third of the team's offensive snaps. He is still the best bet of the group to come up big in a big spot such as the AFC Championship, but it is very difficult to put much faith in a receiver who has earned more than three targets once since his team debut in Week 7.

Commanders receivers - McLaurin is obviously the headliner here, but he will probably need to score at least 20 fantasy points to justify his $6,700 salary this week. Why is that? The DraftKings funds will run low quickly for DFS players who drop $22,100 on Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce. Can McLaurin score 20? Without question. The problem is that only seven receivers have reached 20 fantasy points against the Eagles this year and only one has done so since Week 12 (Zaccheaus). Making matters worse, the loss of RG Samuel Cosmi makes it more likely that the pass rush will get to Jayden Daniels more often than it did in the first two meetings. Furthermore, McLaurin has surpassed 20 fantasy points only once in his last 10 games versus the Eagles. (He has scored a total of 19 fantasy points against Philly this season.)

Although Zaccheaus erupted for five catches, 70 yards and two TDs in the Week 16 thriller, he has predictably crawled back into the secondary role that he has been in for most of his career with five receptions on 10 targets for 70 yards and no TDs combined over his last three outings. DFS players can roll the dice on lightning striking twice with Zaccheaus, but the better bet is probably Brown. It is far too early to say he is breaking out, but it is clear Brown is playing with more confidence and has earned the trust of Daniels. Brown (11-187-1) has produced almost identical numbers to McLaurin (11-176-2) through two postseason games. Once considered merely a deep threat, the fourth-year pro is finally showing he is capable of more than just stretching the field.

Eagles receivers - At the risk of losing my DFS analyst card, we have amazingly reached the point where "Swole Batman" and the "Slim Reaper" should probably be considered afterthoughts in lineups. Brown has caught only three of his 10 targets for 24 scoreless yards during the playoffs and has not looked right physically throughout. Unlike most of his time in Philly, Brown cannot make up for it with volume because the Eagles are passing about 20 times per game. Smith has caught all eight of his postseason targets, but it is hard for even the most dominant receivers to come through for DFS purposes on four targets per game. If one of the two miss time due to injury in this game, then the other could reward their believers. However, Jalen Hurts' own injury issues could undermine whatever owners are hoping for such a possibility.

For what it is worth, Kelce has feasted on Buffalo in the three postseason matchups, posting 5-75-2 (2023), 8-96-1 (2021) and 13-118-2 (200) lines in those meetings with the Bills. He did similar damage last week (7-117-1) versus the Texans. With Buffalo likely having issues at cornerback (Christian Benford is in concussion protocol, Rasul Douglas is having a down year and slot CB Taron Johnson has been average for the most part), the Bills likely will not have the luxury of giving their safeties or linebackers much help on Kelce. Even though he is priced at least $1,500 more than any other tight end, he is worth the extra coin in DFS this week.

Dallas Goedert - Goedert has played eight games with Hurts this season. He has accounted for 35 or fewer yards four times and produced at least 61 yards three times. Even with the lack of volume in the Eagles' passing attack, Goedert has at least been usable in his last three outings. If A.J. Brown continues to be a non-factor and/or Hurts is limited to mostly being a pocket passer, Goedert could end up being a primary target once again for the Eagles. A lack of volume limits his upside - he has not seen more than six targets in any game since his return from injury - but he has consistently proven he can do enough on catching three or four of those targets to make his presence felt. The Commanders have done a solid job of limiting tight end production for the season, but Goedert was one of the better ones they faced this year (5-61-0 in Week 11, DNP in Week 16). What it means is that if Philadelphia chooses to feature him for whatever reason, Washington probably will not be able to stop him. The low-volume passing attack limits his fantasy upside, but he has enough to be a respectable pivot from Kelce this week.

Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox - Kincaid was not available for the first meeting in Week 11, which led to Knox having one of his best games of the year (4-40-0). The second-year tight end earned seven targets in consecutive games upon his return from injury in Week 15. He has been a virtual ghost over the last three contests, drawing seven targets over that time (6-82-0). Kincaid has not scored in seven straight outings, nor has he topped four catches since Week 6. His high-water mark as a pass-catcher this season is 53 yards in Week 15. Even against a Kansas City defense that gave up a league-high 1,191 receiving yards to tight ends this year, there is little reason to believe either Bill can do enough with their limited targets to be a fantasy asset this weekend. (For what it is worth, Quintin Morris is the last Buffalo tight end to score a touchdown … in Week 9).

Zach Ertz - Ertz overcame the most difficult matchup for tight ends last week (5-28-1 against Detroit). This week, he gets the second-toughest matchup in the Eagles, who yielded a league-low 591 receiving yards to the position during the season. Ertz was fortunate enough to find the end zone in the Week 11 loss to Philadelphia (6-47-1) - almost all of his production came on Washington's final drive - but he was nearly blanked in the shootout win five weeks later (1-12-0). The 34-year-old has been Jayden Daniels' second-favorite target for most of the season and seems to be who the young quarterback relies on the most in the red zone.

The problem with Ertz - at least this week - is that he has the worst matchup by far of any of the options on the slate and offers very little after the catch. In other words, DFS players are betting on him scoring another touchdown against the best defense in the league and one that has effectively shut him down outside of a meaningless drive at the end of their first meeting. If there is one reason for hope, it might be that opponents have been able to attack Eagles safeties Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson with some success during the playoffs. (Tucker Kraft had five catches for 26 yards in the Wild Card Round, while Tyler Higbee managed seven catches for 54 yards and a score last week.)

Key for defense/special teams units:
PA - Points allowed
TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
TO - Total turnovers
PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings