Straight from the man who created fantasy football's version of
the Midsummer Classic, The Scott Fish Bowl is "the premier
fantasy tournament in the fantasy football industry." It
brings together nearly every fantasy football analyst in the industry,
celebrities, former professional athletes and thousands of fans.
There are live drafts all over the country and in several different
countries as well.
Fish is arguably the most charitable person in the fantasy industry.
Along with plenty of help from many others (including but not
limited to Ryan McDowell, John Bosch and Bob Gilchrist), he spends
countless hours during the late winter and most of the spring
organizing this charitable event, which expects to go over 4,000
entries this year.
The Scott Fish Bowl is the main fundraising event for Fantasy
Cares - a foundation that has raised hundreds of thousands
of dollars for charity. The majority of the funds raised are used
to buy toys for kids at Christmas, but Fantasy Cares has also
supported dog rescues, hurricane relief efforts, food shelves,
the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence and many other
worthy causes.
That is not the only unique feature of this league. Fish makes
it his mission each year to tweak the scoring system, which adds
another challenging layer of competition to a league where managers
are trying to beat more than 3,000 other competitors.
Speaking of the unusual setup and scoring system, let's look
at what SFB14 has to offer this season:
SCORING/LINEUP
Roster Size: 22 players (11 starters) Draft: Snake, third-round reversal (1.12 will
pick at 2.01 and 3.01)
Passing:
6 point passing TD
1 point for 50 yards passing (.02/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
Rushing:
6 point rushing TD
1 point for 10 yards rushing (.1/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
0.5 points per first down
.25 points per carry
Receiving:
6 point receiving TD
1 point for 10 yards receiving (.1/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
0.5 points per first down
Receptions:
QB/K/RB 0.5 PPR
WR 1 PPR
TE 1.5 PPR
Bonus:
Extra point per first down for TEs
Kicking:
3.3 points for a made extra point
Decimal scoring bonus for FG (37 yarder = 3.7 points, 24 yarder
= 2.4 points)
Special Teams:
10 points for any return TD
1 point for five yards per return
6 points if your player recovers a ball in the end zone for a
TD (fumble recovery TD on Sleeper)
****************
SFB14 is a superflex and tight end-premium league at its core,
but it is more than that. It is also points per carry (0.1), points
per reception and points for first down (0.5 for non-tight ends,
1.5 for tight ends) league. While all TDs are worth six points,
"pocket" quarterbacks are significantly minimized by
the fact that it takes 50 yards passing to score one point, so
athletic quarterbacks are the way to go at that position - for
the most part. Very good and elite tight ends can make or break
your season. Kickers - especially the Justin Tuckers of the world
- are very viable as flex options. To the surprise of virtually
no one, high-volume running backs rule the day over their less-involved
position mates.
Before we get into the heart of the article, let's look at how
position groups fared (with this exact scoring setup) over the
last two seasons:
2023
Top 25 (overall points): 8 QBs, 7 RBs, 6 WRs, 4 TEs
Top 25 (average - at least eight games): 8 QBs, 8 RBs, 7 WRs,
2 TEs
Top 50 (overall points): 14 QBs, 13 RBs, 14 WRs, 6 TEs, 3 PKs
Top 50 (average - at least eight games): 14 QBs, 18 RBs, 13 WRs,
5 TEs
Top 100 (overall points): 18 QBs, 28 RBs, 31 WRs, 9 TEs, 14 PKs
Top 100 (average - at least eight games): 21 QBs, 31 RBs, 29 WRs,
12 TEs, 7 PKs
2022
Top 25 (overall points): 8 QBs, 9 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
Top 25 (average - at least eight games): 9 QBs, 9 RBs, 6 WRs,
1 TE
Top 50 (overall points): 13 QBs, 22 RBs, 11 WRs, 3 TEs, 1 PK
Top 50 (average - at least eight games): 14 QBs, 21 RBs, 11 WRs,
4 TEs
Top 100 (overall points): 19 QBs, 30 RBs, 30 WRs, 8 TEs, 13 PKs
Top 100 (average - at least eight games): 23 QBs, 32 RBs, 31 WRs,
9 TEs, 5 PKs
Now that we know how the positions have fared in this specific
scoring system, let's add some context for more perspective:
- Somewhat interestingly, 64 players scored at least 250 fantasy
points last season (if we round up on DeVonta Smith's 249.6).
In 2022, only 52 cleared that bar (if we round up on Christian Kirk's 249.8).
- Eight quarterbacks, eight running backs, eight receivers and
four tight ends topped 20 points per game in 2023. Nine quarterbacks,
nine running backs, six receivers and one tight end cleared that
bar in 2022.
- Nine players (three quarterbacks, two running backs, three
receivers and one tight end) scored at least 20 fantasy points
in 10 games last season. In 2022, 11 players (four quarterbacks,
five running backs, one receiver and one tight end) accomplished
the feat.
- If we give Murray one more game to meet the minimum games played
requirement above, exactly nine quarterbacks have averaged at
least 20 points in both seasons. (Six of the nine have done so
in both seasons: Hurts, Allen, Lamar
Jackson, Fields, Dak
Prescott and Murray.) Murray's 20.1 point-per-game average
was only three-tenths of a point behind Kirk
Cousins, who was second in the league in passing yards and
first in passing scores before going down with a season-ending
Achilles injury in Week 8.
- Anthony
Richardson averaged 25.5 points over his first three games
(he got hurt early in his fourth, which was the last time he played).
That average would have been good for QB3 honors in 2023 and QB4
honors in 2022. It was also higher than all but one running back
(Christian
McCaffrey) and two receivers (Hill and CeeDee
Lamb) in 2023 and all but one running back (Josh
Jacobs) and one tight end (Kelce) in 2022.
- The gap between QB1 (Hurts) and QB12 (Joshua Dobbs!!!) last
year was just over eight points per game. In 2022, the gap between
QB1 and QB12 was nearly 12 points per game.
- Kyren Williams
was the only running back within seven points (per game) of McCaffrey
in 2023. McCaffrey finished third among running backs in 2022,
although his average increased from 22.7 in six games with the
Panthers that season to 26.1 in 11 games with the 49ers. In his
last 21 non-Week 18 games with San Francisco, CMC has amassed
629.35 fantasy points in this format - an average of 29.97 points.
- If we remove Williams from consideration, no other running
back finished within 7.6 points per game of McCaffrey. That is
less than the gap between QB1 (Hurts) and QB13 (Mahomes), WR1
(Hill) and WR13 (Mike Evans) and TE1 (Kelce) and TE12 (Jake Ferguson)
last season.
- Of the 11 running backs to average at least 20 points per game
(rounding up from 19.5) in 2023, six missed at least one game.
The group of six combined for 22 absences for an average of 3.6
missed games. In 2022, 13 backs averaged at least 19.5 points.
Of that group, seven missed at least one game - four of them missed
only one. The other three combined for 16 absences for an average
of 5.3 missed games.
- Three receivers (Lamb, Hill and Amon-Ra
St. Brown) finished among the top eight scorers in 2023. Only
Justin Jefferson
did so in 2022.
- How important is the individual kickoff/punt return scoring
this year (Part 1)? Rashid Shaheed was the 27th-highest scorer
across all positions in this format last year! Through four
weeks in 2023, he was the second-highest scorer. How is that possible?
Over that time, he totaled 371 return yards (74.2 fantasy points)
for one touchdown (10) and added 12 catches (12) for 185 yards
(18.5) and another score (six). He added nine first downs (4.5)
and three carries (0.75).
In 2022, DeAndre
Carter was the surprise all-star boosted by his return-game
contributions. Despite finishing with 46 catches for 538 yards
and three touchdowns and two carries for -15 yards, Carter was
the 36th-highest scorer across all positions because he added
836 yards on returns.
- How important is the individual kickoff/punt return scoring
this year (Part 2)? In Week 14 against the Browns, Dameon Pierce
ran three times (0.75 fantasy points) for six yards (0.6) and
caught one pass (0.5) for 10 yards (1.0) and a first down (0.5).
However, he amassed 174 kickoff return yards (34.8) and ran one
back for a touchdown (10), allowing him to score 48.15 fantasy
points that week.
- Do not discount kickers. In each of the last two seasons, multiple
kickers have placed inside the top 60 overall. Last year, five
made the cut (Brandon Aubrey, Jason Sanders, Justin Tucker, Jake Moody and Jake Elliott). In 2022, it was Brett Maher and Tyler Bass. Interestingly, the Cowboys' kicker in both seasons (Aubrey
in 2023 and Maher in 2022) has finished as the top-scoring kicker.
*************
While it may be an exercise in futility, I wanted to take a look
at what managers should expect from each of their picks on a round-by-round
basis, especially since what Fish strives for is balance across
positions. I arrived at each average by taking the top 12 scorers
across all positions and assuming they went in the first round.
I did the same thing with players finishing 13th through 24th
serving as the second round and so on. Knowing how many fantasy
points we should expect from each draft pick makes it a lot easier
to guide our decisions during the draft.
SFB14 Expected Production
Rd
2022
2023
1 (1-12)
408.1
378.2
2 (13-24)
325.6
318.3
3 (25-36)
293.5
294.8
4 (37-48)
269.3
276.5
5 (49-60)
249.3
265.1
6 (61-72)
240.4
247.5
7 (73-84)
228.5
237.2
8 (85-96)
217.8
225.7
9 (97-108)
206.7
217.5
10 (109-120)
197.1
206.2
Perhaps it helps to look at it in graph form ...
In 2023, McCaffrey (476.3), Hurts (428.9), Allen (424.6), Lamb
(408.5), Hill (393.2) and Lamar Jackson (390.2) scored 390 points
and no one else scored more than 340.2. In 2022, five players
scored at least 422 points and 12 players topped 2022's average
(378.2). I think that accounts for the biggest difference in the
two seasons.
At the very least, the charts above should give SFB14 drafters
an idea of the point total they should expect (hope for) from
each of their first 10 selections. Seeing as how 200 points should
be the expectation for a 10th-round pick, it also makes a strong
case for taking the best kickers much earlier than they typically
go in SFB drafts.
STRATEGY
The beauty of the starting lineup setup in this league this season
is there should be no "perfect way" to draft a team.
Yes, securing two very good/elite quarterbacks and one stud tight
end early will help the cause, but the first few rounds will be
almost entirely about gaining a sizable positional advantage somewhere
(QB1, QB2, RB1, WR1 or TE1).
The superflex and tight end premium nature of this format will
probably result in quarterbacks and tight ends going much earlier
than we are accustomed to, but I am not entirely sure that should
be the case - at least not early in the first round. Taking two
quarterbacks early and grabbing a strong TE1 will be important
and probably should be done by the end of Round 5, however. The
(relative) success athletic quarterbacks such as Justin Fields
and Joshua Dobbs have enjoyed with the scoring setup suggests
that any fantasy team fortunate enough to land a strong anchor
- such as Hurts or maybe even Richardson - and Jayden Daniels
as its QB2 is probably going to enjoy a deep postseason run. Justin Herbert is another player that managers should be drafting as
a QB2, especially if we are confident he will run more in the
Chargers' new offense.
Projecting each team's return specialists will be a different
and very challenging wrinkle in SFB14. (More on that later.) One
other aspect that needs to be mentioned here is the starting lineup
requirements. In a league such as this one that features six flex
spots and requires only one starting running back, I am going
to be very tempted to pick a workhorse like McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson
or Breece Hall. After that, I will strive to get two quarterbacks,
a receiver and a tight end before I consider running back again.
I will also prioritize my stud's handcuff - probably two rounds
above SFB14 ADP - and roster no more than four or five high-upside
backs. The key to winning any large-scale tournament is hitting
on your picks (obviously) and doing everything in your power to
make sure your team is built for the long haul. That means avoiding
the position most likely to get hurt (running back) and loading
up on receivers, who are much more likely to make it through the
season. It makes even more sense to load up on receivers if more
of them are serving as returners.
Early draft plan for managers with a top-six selection
(1.01-1.06):
There appear to be five or six players that warrant legitimate
consideration for the top spot, which means managers should be
happy if they land a pick inside the top half of their drafts.
Each player comes with concerns, but that is par for the course
every year. Christian McCaffrey is 28 years old. Jalen Hurts is
coming off a down year and may see a slight reduction in "Brotherly
Shove" opportunities with Saquon Barkley now in town. He
is also running his third different offense in three years. Josh Allen may no longer have Stefon Diggs and must rely on a largely
unproven receiving corps. Travis Kelce will turn 35 years old
early in October and could continue to see his reps managed early
in the season. Lamar Jackson could lose some rushing production
with Derrick Henry now in the fold in Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes
was the No. 4 overall scorer as recently as 2022, but he needed
to throw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns to get there. Even
with an improved supporting cast, that is a high bar.
McCaffrey and his 30 points-per-game average over his last 21
games as a 49er (and, perhaps most notably, the 7.7-point advantage
he could easily enjoy over most of the rest of the field at running
back) may be the biggest advantage of them all. However, that
only matters if Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall fail to close the
gap in what should be much better offenses this season. The problem
with passing on CMC at No. 1 overall is if he continues to score
at the same astronomical rate he has for the last 1 1/4 seasons,
there may be only two more chances to land an all-purpose elite
RB1 (Robinson and Hall) before the 24th selection. The odds are
neither one will come close to making it back. If they do, there
is a distinct possibility you have secured two sizeable positional
advantages through two rounds (RB1 and the first non-superflex
flex spot).
The "safe" move is probably to roll with one of the four quarterbacks
above and let the rest of the draft fall into place. For example,
a Hurts-Hall-Jayden
Daniels-Kyle
Pitts start could easily begin the season with positional
advantage at what I believe are the four most important spots
in this setup (QB1, QB2, RB1 and TE1). The amount of rushing upside
at quarterback in a scoring system that so heavily favors running
quarterbacks likely means at least 75 percent of the league has
little chance of competing with you at either quarterback spot.
Using the chart above, we need our first- and second-round picks
to account for at least 700 points. There is a distinct possibility
a Hurts-Daniels start could push for 750 or even 780 points. There
is enough uncertainty about Daniels in the fantasy community that
he could slip to 3.12, although I would not count on that happening.
(Herbert is a better bet to last that long.) Once again citing
the chart above, we want our first three picks in this scoring
format to account for at least 1,000 fantasy points. A case could
be made that a Hurts-Hall-Daniels start in Rounds 1-3 could push
for 1,100. Even if Hall is gone, Jonathan
Taylor, Kyren
Williams, Jahmyr
Gibbs or Derrick
Henry are among the backs who could offer similar production.
I do not want to discount Kelce as a top-five pick, but the fact
that Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid and
even maybe Pitts could be legitimate challengers to his overall
TE1 throne this year gives me pause. If Kelce is truly no longer
in a class of his own at the position, then his managers could
miss the elite QB1 and RB1 options. I also think it is unrealistic
to expect a non-quarterback who will turn 35 years old during
the season to serve as an anchor for fantasy teams.
Early draft plan for managers with a pick in the
1.07-1.12 range:
Assuming I am right about the top six picks, managers should
expect CeeDee
Lamb, Sam
LaPorta, Joe
Burrow, Tyreek
Hill, Justin
Jefferson, Amon-Ra
St. Brown, C.J.
Stroud, Bijan
Robinson, Breece
Hall and Anthony
Richardson to account for at least 10 of the next 11 or 12
picks. The temptation will be there to draft receivers such as
Lamb and Hill for the same reason they are tempting in regular
drafts (huge upside at a position and less injury risk). However,
the SFB14 setup - specifically the requirement of needing to start
only one receiver - reduces the urgency of drafting those players
that one might feel in a league that requires managers to start
three receivers. Everything after the first pick made at each
position (excluding quarterback since we should assume managers
will fill the superflex spot with a quarterback) is a flex option.
Injury risk is probably the only other major consideration to
account for other than upside after the five most important spots
on your SFB14 roster are filled (QB1, QB2, RB1, WR1, TE1).
I would not go so far as to say no receivers should go in the
first round (Hill and Lamb should still be good choices), but
recent history tells us they need to have a near-historic season
to make a push for 400 fantasy points in this scoring setup. It
is a lot to ask, but 400 points needs to be the target for drafters
with their first-round pick in SFB14. Take St. Brown for example,
The "Sun God" was awesome in 2023 with 119 catches for
1,515 yards and 10 scores. His 338 fantasy points with SFB14 scoring
is great in 95 percent of most leagues, but it is 40 points below
the average of what we needed for our first-round picks in 2023
and 70 points below what we needed from our first-round picks
in 2022.
LaPorta should be a better NFL player in 2024 than he was as
a rookie, but where will he get better statistically? He caught
71.7 percent of his 120 targets in 2023. How much higher can his
catch rate get? Will he see much more than 120 targets with Jameson Williams seemingly ready to go and Jahmyr Gibbs pushing for work
in the receiving game? I think we can safely assume St. Brown's
place in the offense is secure. Can LaPorta score more than last
season's 10 touchdowns? Even after he posted the best season ever
by a rookie tight end, LaPorta finished with 320.15 fantasy points
last year. As good as that is, he is well short of the territory
he needs to be in to be an average first-round pick in SFB14.
He needs to push for 100 catches and 1,000 yards to get there.
We have already established quarterbacks who do not run a lot
need to light the fantasy world on fire to compete with the top
options at the position. Burrow's 4,475 yards passing and 35 touchdowns
(and 88 scoreless yards rushing) in 2022 would have been just
good enough to hit the first-round pick scoring average of 2023.
Stroud is undoubtedly a great candidate to blow right past last
year's production (4,108 passing yards and 23 TDs to go along
with 167 rushing yards and three more scores), but do we want
to count on either player ascending into Mahomes' territory and
pushing for 4,800 yards and 38 touchdowns? I would easily take
Richardson before either one and live with his injury risk. For
me, Richardson is an easy pick at 1.07 and perhaps even 1.06 -
ahead of Kelce. His ceiling is ridiculously high if he stays healthy
this season.
Robinson and Hall are easy first-round picks for me as well.
They are the only running backs that appear to have a legitimate
chance to close the gap on McCaffrey. (Again, think about gaining
positional advantage as early and often as possible.) I want to
come out of the first two rounds with either two elite dual-threat
quarterbacks (perhaps a Richardson-Daniels start?) or one elite
dual-threat quarterback and one elite running back. It just takes
too much for receivers to stand out in this scoring to put a huge
priority on getting one in the first two rounds. I am also confident
enough in options such as Mark
Andrews, Jake
Ferguson and Kyle
Pitts to pass on tight end in the first two-plus rounds, although
I would like to have my TE1 option secured no later than the fourth
round.
*************
Here is a rough draft
of how I expect most competitive SFB14 drafts to start (focus
more on the players and less on the exact order they are drafted
below). THESE ARE NOT MY RANKINGS! (I expect to have a top 100
list ready by the end of next week. I do not draft until July
21.)
Remember to read from left to right for the first and fourth
rounds and from right to left for the second and third rounds.
As noted earlier, kick and punt returners will be much more valuable
in SFB14 than most typical leagues - especially if they have any
kind of significant role on offense (third-down back, slot receiver,
etc.). Courtesy of Ourlads, I will list each team's projected
kick and punt return in the table below:
Returners
Tm
KR
PR
ARI
DeeJay Dallas/Greg Dortch
Greg Dortch/DeeJay Dallas
ATL
Avery Williams/Ray-Ray McCloud
Avery Williams/Ray-Ray McCloud
BAL
Justice Hill/Deonte Harty
Tylan Wallace/Deonte Harty
BUF
Khalil Shakir/Ty Johnson
Daequan Hardy/Khalil Shakir
CAR
Raheem Blackshear/D'Shawn
Jamison
Ihmir Smith-Marsette/Raheem Blackshear
CHI
Velus Jones Jr./DeAndre Carter
DeAndre Carter/Velus Jones Jr.
CIN
Trayveon Williams/Chris Evans
Charlie Jones
CLE
Nyheim Hines/Pierre Strong
Nyheim Hines/James Proche
DAL
KaVontae Turpin/Deuce Vaughn
KaVontae Turpin/Deuce Vaughn
DEN
Marvin Mims/Jaleel McLaughlin
Marvin Mims/Tremon
Smith
DET
Sione Vaki/Khalil
Dorsey
Kalif Raymond/Sione Vaki
GB
Keisean Nixon/Jayden
Reed
Jayden Reed/Keisean
Nixon
HOU
Dameon Pierce/Steven Sims
Steven Sims/Desmond
King
IND
Josh Downs/Anthony Gould
Josh Downs/Anthony Gould
JAX
Devin Duvernay/Keilan Robinson
Devin Duvernay/Parker Washington
KC
Kadarius Toney/Deneric Prince
Xavier Worthy/Mecole Hardman
LAC
Derius Davis
Derius Davis
LAR
Boston Scott/Kenny
Logan
Kyren Williams/Sam Wiglusz
LV
Tre Tucker/Tulu Griffin
Tre Tucker
MIA
Braxton Berrios/Tahj Washington
Braxton Berrios
MIN
Kene Nwangwu/Ty Chandler
Brandon Powell/Devron Harper
NE
Jalen Reagor
DeMario Douglas
NO
Rashid Shaheed/Taysom Hill
Rashid Shaheed/Jermaine Jackson
NYG
Tyrone Tracy/Isaiah McKenzie
Isaiah McKenzie/Gunner Olszewski
NYJ
Xavier Gipson/Tarik Cohen
Xavier Gipson
PHI
Isaiah Rodgers/Will Shipley
Britain Covey/Cooper
DeJean
PIT
Cordarrelle Patterson/Quez Watkins
Calvin Austin
SF
Jordan Mason/Ronnie Bell
Ricky Pearsall/Trent Taylor
SEA
Dee Eskridge/Laviska Shenault
Easop Winston/Dee Williams
TB
Bucky Irving
Jalen McMillan
TEN
Tyjae Spears
Jha'Quan Jackson/Kearis Jackson
WAS
Chris Rodriguez
Jamison Crowder/Jahan Dotson
*** Players listed in red are defensive
players.
The caveat to the information above is that plenty of return
jobs are won during training camp and preseason action. However,
if we assume all the names above are in contention for return
jobs, several names above stand out.
Khalil Shakir, Marvin Mims, Jaleel McLaughlin, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Demario Douglas, Rashid Shaheed and Tyjae Spears are the
players that jump off the page. One could easily make the case
based on last year's finish alone that Shaheed should be drafted
as early as the 10th round. The problem with doing so is that
new OC Klint Kubiak could decide he is too valuable to the offense
and ask that his special teams reps be limited. On the other hand,
a starting receiver - especially one as slight as the 180-pound
Shaheed - who handles kick AND punt return duties may present
too much upside to pass on in the double-digit rounds.
All of the other players listed in the preceding paragraph will
be drafted in the middle rounds regardless of whether they win
return jobs or not, so managers are encouraged to draft any of
them well ahead of the SFB14 ADP that will likely be established
early in July.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.