There have been a lot of surprising performance over the first three
weeks, both good surprises (think Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and
D.J. Chark) and bad ones (Baker Mayfield, Joe Mixon and Davante
Adams). Top fantasy owners learn how to survive the bad ones and
take advantage of the good ones to win championships.
Itís Week 4 and can you believe itís already the
start of bye weeks? San Francisco and the New York Jets get the
early rest and you should still be able to assemble a starting
lineup given these arenít elite fantasy offenses.
Weather should not be a factor.
“Truth never damages a cause that is just.” -
1) Hakim Laws has better hands than the Eagles’ Nelson
You are excused if you donít know the name Hakim Laws.
He doesnít play professional football, but after saving
young children from a burning building in Philadelphia, by catching
them as their father dropped them to him, he commented, ďMy
man just started throwing babies out the window. And we were catching
them - unlike Agholor and all his mishaps.Ē
Gotta love knowledgeable Eagles fans. Agholor leads the Eagles
wideouts in targets (28), receiving yards (168) and touchdowns
(3), but dropped a possible game-winning pass against Atlanta
and fumbled in the loss to Detroit on Sunday. Alshon Jeffery should
be back from an injured calf this Thursday night and DeSean Jackson
in a couple of weeks, so Agholorís fantasy value should
drop quickly. If you can get value in a trade for Agholor, do
2) Which of these names doesnít seem to belong among top fantasy
QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson
or Matt Ryan?
The answer is Ö Russell Wilson. We were all expecting Wilson
and the Seahawks offense to be wildly run-oriented, but through
three games Wilson and the Seattle passing game has been dominant.
After averaging just 26.7 passing attempts per game in 2018, Wilson
is averaging 35 passes this season and completing them at a personal-record
pace (71.4-percent). Heís also using his legs like he used
to and together is averaging 31.1 FPts/G which is good enough
for fourth-best. Despite the loss of his favorite target (Doug
Baldwin to retirement), Wilson has found plenty of success with
Ty Lockett, rookie D.K. Metcalf and tight end Will Dissly. His
success should continue.
3) Neither Elliott, Cook nor Ingram will lead fantasy running
backs in scoring at the end of the season.
Elliott or Cook may lead the league in rushing, but this trio
of running backs isnít a big part of their teamís
passing games. Elliott has five catches for 33 yards, Ingram six
for 62 yards and nine for 79 yards. They are giving away too many
points to backs like Christian McCaffrey (15-132), Alvin Kamara
(17-179-1) and even Austin Ekeler (19-208-2).
4) If you thought that James Washington would explode just because
he had played with new Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph at Oklahoma
State, you were wrong.
Unfortunately true. Washington saw just four targets, catching
two for 14 yards. Diontae Johnson looked like he was the No.2
target behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. There havenít been many
great college QB-WR/TE combos to continue their production in
the NFL. Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener for the Colts was decent
and for you older guys, Jim Plunkett and Randy Vataha of the Patriots.
Interestingly, both duos went to Stanford. Someday, maybe Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin can develop into a top duo, but it
doesnít seem like it should be a factor for fantasy owners
to consider when installing lineups.
5) While currently among the 12 tight end averaging double-digit
fantasy points, Dissly, Witten and McDonald should not be considered
True. The trio of tight ends are not seeing enough target share
and are completely touchdown dependent. Dissly has seen just 14
targets, McDonald 13 and Witten 12. Top-five tight ends are averaging
8.9 targets per game, double what this trio is seeing. Picking
your spots against vulnerable teams like Arizona (league-worst
21.6 FPts/G allowed to TEs), Tampa, the Chargers, Miami and the
Colts is a better way to go.
“Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you no lies.”
? Oliver Goldsmith
1) Cam Newton is dealing with Lis franc injury and the timetable
for his return is “unknown.”
Newtonís timetable isnít unknown, itís directly
related to Kyle Allenís performance. If Allen throws up
a couple of clunkers in a row against Houston and Jacksonville,
Newtonís foot will suddenly feel a lot better. If Allen
continues to play well, Newton could be shut down for the rest
of the season.
2) New Orleans and Miami are the two easiest defenses to play
your quarterback against.
False. While New Orleans (34.9 FPts/G) and Miami (32.9) are yielding
more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks to date, after considering
the quality of the quarterbacks producing those points the Arizona
(32.0) defense is worse than their numbers indicate. New Orleans
has faced; Deshaun
Goff and Russell
Wilson. Miami has faces Jackson, Tom
Brady and Prescott. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have made Matthew
Stafford, Jackson and Kyle
Allen look like superstars. You should start every quarterback
that plays against Arizona until further notice (or at least through
3) I didnít think Cooper Kupp would be ready to go at the start
of the 2019 season after an ACL injury ended his season in Week
10 of 2018.
Heís currently ranked sixth among all receivers (20.8 FPts/G)
after taking apart the Browns defense Monday night (11-102-2).
In late August Jay Glazer reported that ďall his test scores,
coming out of his breaks, agility, quickness, every test timed
better than it was before he tore his ACL." Itís hard
to believe some of the preseason reports, but this one was apparently
correct. The Rams are a much better passing team with him out
there, averaging 31.3 ppg and 296.5 net passing yards in 11 games
with him and 29.0 ppg and 239.5 yards in 11 games without him
since the start of 2018.
4) After his magnificent debut performance Daniel Jones (39.6
FPts) is a must start.
In Week 4 yes, but slow down a little bit. After all, he did
it against lowly Tampa Bay (23-of-36 for 336 yards, 2 TDs passing
and 2 TDs rushing). Jones could be good against Washington this
weekend, with the Redskins on a short work week and vulnerable
(28.1 FPts/G allowed), but the true test of whether he is ready
for ďprime timeĒ will come in weeks 6 and 7 when he
lines up against Minnesota and New England. Both the Vikings and
Patriots will be ready for a Saquon-less Giants offense and you
should look elsewhere for a starting quarterback.
5) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will find a place-kicker Ö
At this point in their futility, maybe not. The Bucs lost another
game Sunday afternoon because their current kicker, Matt Gay,
couldnít make a ďroutineĒ 34-yarder to beat
the New York Giants. Their recent history with kickers in not
pretty, even after using a second-round draft choice in 2016 on
Roberto Aguayo out of Florida State. Aguayo had made 88.5-percent
of his college kicks, but managed just 71-percent in the pros
and didnít earn a second season.