1) Dak Prescott is still owned in 24% of all fantasy leagues.
True. Do fantasy owners believe he will be cured anytime soon?
That he will be touched by the hand of God and miraculously make
a comeback from a broken ankle in Week 9? This isn’t the movie
Heaven Can Wait where a “not-dead” Warren Beatty jumps into the
body of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Tom Jarrett and wins a Super
Bowl. Stop giving your opponents an advantage and allow yourself
a full roster from which to choose. It’s important in these Covid-19
times to have as deep a roster as possible and wasting a spot
with no value is foolish. Of course, Saquon
Barkley is rostered in 27% of all leagues too and he’s been
out since Week 2. What are people thinking?
2) Over the past three weeks, Justin Herbert and Ryan Tannehill
have both produced top-5 fantasy averages while Lamar Jackson
and Patrick Mahomes have been “ordinary.”
Fact. Herbert’s 36.0 fantasy-points-per-game over two starts
ranks No.1, while Tannehill ranks No.5 at 28.6 FPts/G. At the
same time, Jackson and Mahomes have been mediocre. For both superstar
quarterbacks the issue is simply not throwing the ball enough.
Jackson is averaging just 32 attempts and 183 passing yards in
his last few games while the normally prolific Mahomes is averaging
30.6 passes and 255 yards. I’m concerned both teams are
learning they can win in other ways than depending on their quarterback
to carry them … in particular, their running backs and defense.
I wouldn’t expect a big game from Mahomes in Week 8 either.
Facing a horrible New York Jets team and favored by a gigantic
19 points, they should be able to name their final score and sit
Mahomes for most of the fourth quarter.
3) For Chase Claypool owners, reality steps in.
True. For the first time since Claypool’s coming out party
against the Eagles (7-110-3 and one rushing touchdown), Pittsburgh
had its full complement of receivers and Claypool ended up with
one target and zero rushing attempts. Against the formerly unbeaten
Tennessee Titans, a finally healthy Diontae Johnson (15 targets)
and a suddenly revived JuJu Smith-Schuster (14) along with tight
end Eric Ebron (8) dominated the day, while James Washington and
Claypool were left with scraps. In reality, Claypool has seen
more than four targets just one time in six games. Claypool can
still have a big game every now and then because Ben Roethlisberger
will take what the defense gives him, but he’s not ready
to carry your receiving corps … just yet. Perhaps next season,
if the Steelers don’t sign impending free agent Smith-Schuster,
Claypool will shine on a daily basis.
4) You can no longer plug-and-play D.J. Chark.
He was a fantasy darling early last season when he averaged almost
18 FPts/G over the first half of the season and 14.9 FPts/G for
all of 2019, but in 2020 he’s become a disappointment. He
was a relatively high draft choice, but has just one game over
13 fantasy points. As quarterback Gardner Minshew has fallen,
so has the value of Chark. In the last three weeks he’s
still getting the opportunities (25 targets is tied for 11th over
that span), but has produced just 11 receptions, 87 yards and
no touchdowns.
5) If you are in need of a tight end then Eric Ebron could be
your guy.
Has Zach Ertz been disappointing you? Obviously, the answer is
yes. Noah Fant’s 3-38-0 and single digit production for
the last month? Greg Olsen’s disappearing act in Seattle
have you down? Then how about a guy who is available in 54% of
all leagues that has the fifth-most targets over the past three
weeks? It’s Ebron. He’s yet to turn that into fantasy
points because he hasn’t gotten into the end zone much,
but if opportunity equals value then his 18 targets should indicate
he’s ready to help you out. He had a huge 2018 (66-750-13),
so we know he’s capable of doing great things, but perhaps
it’s just taking a little time in his first year with Pittsburgh
and Roethlisberger. He actually leads the Steelers in red zone
targets with seven (21.9% share).
Lies
“Truth is beautiful, without doubt, but so are lies.”
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
1) D’Andre Swift has taken over the Detroit Lions’
three-way RBBC.
False. While Swift’s performance over the past two games
has certainly been fantasy-worthy (21.1 FPts/G), all that has
accomplished is to phase out Kerryon Johnson and make it a two-man
share instead of three-way situation. Since the Week 5 bye, Swift
has seen 30 touches, Adrian Peterson 28 and Johnson just six.
Still, for those fantasy owners who stubbornly held onto Swift
through the dark early days when he saw just 12 rushing attempts
in the first four games, the future is bright. He can run and
his catching ability should eventually make him scoreboard proof.
Now if someone can just convince the 35-year-old “AP”
to retire.
2) Nelson Agholor has become fantasy-worthy again.
Don’t be fooled, it’s a mirage. Sure, Agholor has
scored in three consecutive games and his 16.9 FPts/G over the
past three weeks looks great, but the facts are he’s caught
just 15 balls all season on 20 targets. He’s no better than
Las Vegas’ No.3 target behind Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs.
Even Hunter Renfrow has more targets and more catches.
3) It’s always good to start your quarterback against the Miami
Dolphins therefore Jared Goff should be a great option this Sunday
despite the short work week.
False. The Dolphins pass defense was non-existent in 2019 when
it ranked 31st in QB fantasy points allowed and they were 26th
in 2018, but this is 2020 and behind the defensive-oriented head
coach Brian Flores and DC Josh Boyer, they rank 10th in the league
yielding just 21.7 FPts/G and have allowed just seven touchdown
passes which is tied for second-best with Indianapolis (behind
Chicago). If you are still looking for your Dak Prescott replacement,
besides the obvious choice (Jimmy Garoppolo vs. No.32 Seattle),
perhaps try playing Derek Carr (29% rostered) against the Cleveland
Browns (ranked 29th) this week. The Browns just allowed 406 yards
and three touchdown passes to rookie Joe Burrow. Four quarterbacks
has surpassed 29 points against Cleveland and twice they have
given up 40-plus points.
4) Its Tua Time!
We are in the “Tua Tagovailoa Era” in Miami, but
it’s not yet “Tua time” for fantasy owners.
Former Prescott owners who are still looking for a replacement,
might be tempted to claim Tua (29% rostered), but I am searching
elsewhere for Week 8 and I already have Tagovailoa on my roster.
The Rams rank sixth against opposing quarterbacks and facing Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey in your first start isn’t likely
to be fun. Overall, the mobile Tagovailoa should be a viable option
after a great career at Alabama (69.3% completions, 87 touchdown
passes, 11 INTs, nine rushing touchdowns). He has plenty of receiving
talent in Miami with DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and Preston Williams - just don’t play him this weekend.
5) Dallas quarterback Ben DiNucci could be your Dak replacement.
I would say no. I’ve gone over the Cowboys preseason No.3
quarterback and if Andy Dalton (concussion) can’t go, it
would be DiNucci facing the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday night
and that probably won’t be a good fantasy result. Let me
give you the short version. As a freshman at Pittsburgh, DiNucci
couldn’t beat out the “great” Nathan Peterman
(career NFL QB Rating 32.5, 3 TDs, 12 INTs). As a sophomore he
started, but was eventually beaten out by a freshman - Kenny Pickett,
who wasn’t drafted and has never played in the NFL. He then
transferred to James Madison. The good news is the Eagles only
have three INTs all season, but the bad news they rank third in
sacks (24 and tied with the Rams).
