First off, we have to differentiate dynasty leagues from single-season leagues. For dynasty leagues, getting a great quarterback means a decade of elite play from the position and the ability to spend your draft capital elsewhere for the next few years. In that way, the value of a great quarterback is similar to that of the real life team who drafted him.

But what of the majority of fantasy football enthusiasts? For those who play a single season at a time, it’s much harder to find the next 2020 Justin Herbert (who averaged a stunning 26.3 FPts/G) or a 2011 Cam Newton (27.6 FPts/G) much less a 2017 Deshaun Watson (32.2 FPts/G).

So let’s look at the facts.

I evaluated all quarterbacks selected in the top-three rounds of the draft for the past 10 years. There were 53 such picks made from 2011-2020.

Of those 53 quarterbacks, 11 made zero starts (20.8%). Most of these were easy to understand. They were drafted as backups to the likes of; Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady (twice). Or they were projects. We should be able to spot them pretty easily and avoid them.

In 2021, three of the eight quarterbacks selected in the top-105 picks, figure to hold a clipboard for most, or all, of the season barring serious injury to the starter; Kyle Trask (that Brady guy again), Kellen Mond and Davis Mills. They are keeper-league picks only, or very late-round picks in deep roster leagues.

If we throw out the 11 quarterbacks who didn’t make a start, the remaining 42 quarterbacks averaged 18.5 FPts/G. That number would not make the “average” rookie a fantasy-worthy starter. In 2020, 18.5 FPts/G would rank 28th among those who made at least two starts.

What did it take to make the top-12 of 2020 fantasy quarterbacks? The answer is the 23.4 FPts/G of Kirk Cousins. But that mark was the highest in the last 20 years, so to be fair I took the average of the 12th-best fantasy quarterback over the past 10 seasons. The average No.12 fantasy quarterback since 2011 was 21.6 FPts/G.

And how many rookie quarterbacks over the past 10 years have reached that mark? Answer: 22.6% or 12 of 53 quarterbacks. Even if we eliminated the obvious rookies who weren’t going to start at all this season you still have just a 28.6% of selecting a fantasy-worthy rookie quarterback.

And if you think to yourself – OK, I’ll just limit myself to first-round picks or second-round picks. Sorry, that’s not the answer.

Second round picks averaged 18.7 FPts/G and 40% of the picks didn’t start a game. For first-round picks, they averaged a little more (18.8 FPts/G) and at least most of them got onto the field at some point. Just 6.3% of first round picks never started a game in their rookie season.

A better evaluating theory would be determining which rookie quarterbacks have a chance to start 15 or 16 games. There were 14 rookie QBs who started 15 or more games and they averaged 20.1 FPts/G. Still not starter-worthy, but closer.

The 15-game starting filter likely eliminates Mac Jones and Trey Lance from the mix as Newton and Jimmy Garoppolo still figure to start the season for the Patriots and San Francisco 49ers, respectively.

So we are down to just three possible rookie quarterbacks who may be worthy of starting in their first year for your fantasy team.

Let’s look at the three and evaluate who should be worthy of your attention.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville - Of the three quarterbacks, Lawrence has the best weapons. D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault at wide receiver and James Robinson, Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde make up a solid group of options. Chark regressed after a breakout season in 2019 (73-1008-8), but given the quarterback play of Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton in 2020 it was probably understandable. Marvin Jones is a proven talent and Shenault is a Curtis Samuel-type “Swiss-army” knife. Robinson was one of the biggest surprises of the 2020 season (240-1070-7 rushing and 49-344-3 receiving). The team drafted Lawrence’s Clemson teammate, Etienne, who made himself into a great receiving back in his final seasons for the Tigers. Lawrence’s fantasy value makes me think of Joe Burrow before his injury where the previous season’s top choice averaged 21.9 FPts/G.

Zach Wilson, New York Jets – The Jets made a big move to pry Corey Davis (65-984-5) out of Tennessee, but their skill position options are still limited with Denzel Mims (23-357-0) and Jamison Crowder (59-699-6). Meanwhile, Tevin Coleman (injured for most of 2020) and rookie RB Michael Carter (North Carolina) will man the backfield. The team did try to help it’s porous 29th-ranked OL (according to PFF) with USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, but it’s likely that Wilson will be throwing on the run most of the time. For these reasons, I don’t think Wilson is a viable fantasy option for 2021.

Justin Fields, Chicago - I think Fields starts the season under center opening day having only to beat out aging veterans Andy Dalton and Nick Foles. He’s got the No.1 receiver of the three quarterbacks in question (Allen Robinson), but I’m not yet sold on Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller. Tight end Jimmy Graham still has value in the red zone, but that’s about it and the trio of David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen (ACL) and Damien Williams is helpful with their varied talents, but unspectacular. The most intriguing factor here is Fields’ lack of turnovers over his Buckeye college career and rushing ability (67 TD passes, 9 INTs, 867 rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs at OSU). He reminds me of Kyler Murray who in 2019 posted 21.5 FPts/G.

Bottom line: only Lawrence and Fields should be expected to help your fantasy team in 2021.