I saw an NFL statistic that said 56% of all reportable injuries
happen in the first five weeks of the season and I believe it. This
week some of the big names on the list include; Christian McCaffrey,
Quenton Nelson, Dalvin Cook, James White and Darius Slayton. And
bye weeks begin soon. Roster depth is going to play a major role
in winning your fantasy league.
“I never did give them hell. I just told the
truth, and they thought it was hell.” – Harry S. Truman
1) Now would be an excellent time to “sell high” on
Kupp is currently averaging 30.4 FPts/G a level which he canít
possibly continue to produce. Why do I say that? Because I went
back over the last 20 seasons and no receiver has ever averaged
30 FPts/G. No receiver has ever averaged even 26 points. The two
highest seasons were Davante Adams last year at 25.7 (115-1374-18)
and a 2007 Randy Moss season at 24.1 (98-1493-23). Therefore,
Kuppís numbers can only go down from here. Iím not
saying give him away, in fact, you should ask a truly exorbitant
amount, but someone might give it to you because of the ďgreater
2) For the same reason you might sell high on Kupp, now is a
good time to ďbuy lowĒ on Robert Woods.
Since coming to the Rams from Buffalo in 2017, Woods has averaged
15.4 FPts/G, but through three games heís averaging just
10.4 FPts/G. Heíll start to get more chances as teams roll
their defenses to Kupp. Woods averaged 8.18 targets in his first
four seasons in LA and just 6.3 through the first three games
this season. Heís going to see more work as the season progresses.
3) Henry Ruggs III will continue to produce at this new and
While I would be wary of overrating Las Vegas players since playing
two overtime games in the first three weeks of the season might
distort fantasy statistics, I think Ruggs is the exception. He
was a disappointment in 2020 (6.8 FPts/G) when compared to other
rookie receivers (namely Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb), but
Ruggs has a lot going for him in 2021. Nelson Agholor is gone,
opening up 82 wide receiver targets. Tight end Darren Waller still
commands the primary attention from defenses and Derek Carr is
having a career year. Ruggs saw just 3.3 targets a game last season
and is averaging 6.3 in 2021. Carr is averaging a career-high
9.1 yards-per-attempt and 13.7 yards-per-completion meaning heís
throwing deeper and Ruggs is the teamís deep threat.
4) Tom Bradyís start this season makes me think back to 2007
in New England when he threw for 4806 yards and 50 touchdowns.
True. This team is built similarly on offense with great receivers
and a mediocre-to-poor running game. In 2007 Brady had Moss, Wes
Welker and Donteí Stallworth. In 2021 he has Mike Evans,
Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. In 2007 the tight end was Ben
Watson. In 2021 heís got Rob Gronkowski! Canít beat
that. In 2007 he had a mediocre Laurence Maroney and a pass-catching
Kevin Faulk out of the backfield. In 2021 he has Leonard Fournette,
Ronald Jones and a pass-catching Giovani Bernard. TB12 is currently
on pace for 6160 yards and 57 touchdown passes (17 games). Yes,
he can keep up this pace.
5) Brady is averaging a stunning 34.1 FPts/G, but he is NOT
the top-ranked quarterback.
Fact. Kyler Murray is averaging 34.4 FPts/G. Heís throwing
for 335 ypg with seven touchdowns, but overtakes Brady by virtue
of his running ability which adds 8.3 FPts/G to his fantasy total.
Murray is the closest thing to Lamar Jackson in terms of elusiveness,
he just doesnít run as much because he likes to throw. And
who wouldnít like to put it up when you have DeAndre Hopkins,
Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore to catch it?
All four receivers are averaging more than 11.4 FPts/G. Murray
& Co. have their work cut out for them in Week 4 in a battle
of high-scoring unbeaten teams when the travel to Los Angeles
to face the Rams.
“There is no shame in not knowing; the shame lies in not
finding out.” – Proverb
1) If you believe the “greater fool theory” applies
to Mike Williams as well as Kupp you would be wrong.
While I donít believe Williams can continue to produce
at his current 25.2 FPts/G pace, I do believe heíll continue
to produce at more than double his career average (9.4 FPts/G
from 2017-2020). Williams has so many good things going for him
right now. He has a truly elite receiver on the other side of
the field (Keenan Allen) forcing opponents to put their best defender
elsewhere, a great young quarterback (Justin Herbert), not much
in the way of a third receiver on the roster (Jalen Guyton?) and
reduced tight end talent from a year ago (was Hunter Henry, now
is Jared Cook).
2) Ja'Marr Chase is this yearís Justin Jefferson.
Close, but no. I like what Iíve seen from Chase, but I
donít think he produces Jeffersonís numbers (88-1400-7)
in 2021. Here is my argument against Chase. In Minnesota, the
wide receiver options for Kirk Cousins were Adam Thielen and Jefferson
only. The third leading wideout in Minnesota last season was Chad Beebe (30 targets). In Cincinnati, there are three mouths to feed
not two; talented Tee Higgins (7.5 targets-per-game), Tyler Boyd
(6.3) and Chase (5.3). And Chaseís stunning 20.0 yards-per-receptions
will be hard to produce for an entire season. In Jeffersonís
record-setting year he averaged 15.9 ypr.
3) Derek Carr (28.5 FPts/G) will stay a top-five quarterback.
False. While most other quarterbacks have played 12 quarters
of football, Carr has played almost 14 in three games. Heís
played 26:22 more than most quarterbacks. Thatís 14.4% more
than the other guys. Which means heís really averaging around
24.4 fantasy points per 60 minutes. Thatís good, but not
top-five. It would rank him 14th, just behind Herbert. So unless
you think the Raiders will play nine more overtime games, Carrís
numbers are inflated. Maybe another sell high opportunity.
4) Jalen Hurts is averaging 27.6 fantasy points despite the
1-2 record so everything is just fine if heís your fantasy quarterback.
I donít believe Hurts can keep up this pace because of
the injuries to his offensive line. Three-fifths of the starting
OL is injured after three games. RG Brandon Brooks, LT Jordan
Mailata and LG Isaac Seumalo are injured. Backup LT Andre Dillard
was injured Monday night as well. Back in July I wrote that if
everything went perfectly Hurts could be top-12, but if either
the OL didnít stay healthy or the wideout position didnít
improve heíd be less than that. The receivers are better,
but the lineís health is already starting to crumble. Hurts
saved you late Monday night with some garbage-time points (he
had 3.4 fantasy points at halftime), but I donít think that
will happen every week.
5) James Robinson is not a top-10 fantasy running back.
He currently isnít in the top-10 (14.4 FPts/G ranked 19th),
but he will be by the end of the season. I believe coach Urban
Meyer has finally figured out what we all knew Ö that Robinson
is a lot better than Carlos Hyde. Robinson has seen progressively
more touches each game (11-14-21) and itís because Meyer
knows that he must protect his rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence
from mistakes and without injured Travis Etienne, Robinson is
his best option out of the backfield. Another ďbuy lowĒ