I’ve have heard from many a fantasy player… “I
get more fantasy points when my quarterback is behind on the scoreboard
and playing catch up. And even better when he is down late in a
game and the other team is in a “prevent defense”. But
is that true or just an old fantasy player’s tall tale?
And how could this information help you when drafting a fantasy
team?
It’s particularly important if the quarterback doesn’t
have a good defense behind him.
There is nothing better than your quarterback getting into a
shootout. Think of Dak Prescott’s first four games in 2020.
His Cowboys’ defense (pre-Micah Parsons) couldn’t
stop my old high school team. They game up 136 points in those
four games (36.5 PPG). So, Dak was forced to run and pass every
chance he got and racked up 147.1 fantasy points (36.8 FPts/G)
before getting knocked out of the game, and the season, in the
first quarter of the fifth game.
Therefore, one of our goals should be to find a quality quarterback,
who thrives playing from behind on a team with a weak defense.
The first box below shows each expected 2023 starter’s
Quarterback Rating when ahead or tied on the scoreboard versus
when they are behind.
Five teams gave up 425 points or more last season (25 PPG allowed).
They were Indianapolis in the AFC and Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota
and Detroit in the NFC. Is it any wonder why three of the quarterbacks
ranked among the top-10? Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and Justin Fields
were always playing catchup. Cousins was the least efficient of
the three with an 87.7 QB rating in that situation while Fields
and Goff had better than a 90 rating. Will any of their teams
have improved defenses in 2023? If not, then these quarterbacks
are still good options for this year.
We also want guys who can respond in the fourth quarter even
if they have struggled all day. Late points, particularly when
defenses are in “prevent,” frequently win weekends
for fantasy owners.
Anyone old enough to remember a certain Peyton Manning comeback
against a great Tampa Bay Bucs defense on a Monday night in October
of 2003? The Warren Sapp-led defense (also John Lynch and Ronde
Barber in the secondary) held a 28-7 lead heading into the fourth
quarter when Manning led a crazy comeback to win 38-35 in OT.
Manning had produced just 144 passing yards through three quarters
but amassed 242 yards and a score in the fourth quarter and one
drive in overtime.
The second box is guys who played well at crunch time when their
team was down on the scoreboard. Lamar Jackson was elite. Tua Tagovailoa too. And Jalen Hurts, who was not very good when his
team was behind early, obviously flipped a switch in the fourth
quarter and became “Superman,” producing a league-best
139.8 QB Rating in the fourth quarter and overtime. So, fantasy
owners who start Hurts might actually be hoping all those changes
to the Eagles’ 2023 defense don’t work out as well
as Eagles fans and management hope.
Other viable fantasy starters, whose team finished in the bottom
third in scoring defense include; Miami and Tagovailoa along with
Seattle and Geno Smith. Tagovailoa played very well from behind
(110.0 QB rating overall and 124.5 in the fourth quarter and overtime,
while Smith produced 103.4 and 110.9, respectively.
But do we want our quarterback ALWAYS playing from behind?
The answer is definitively – NO!
A few years back, I analyzed 10 years of data with quarterbacks
playing on teams who finished the season with a minus 80 points
differential. There were 75 such teams and a total of 171 quarterbacks
who started for them and just 13 quarterbacks managed to average
20.4 FPts/G (then the minimum production needed to produce a top-12
result). That’s just 7.6%.
In contrast, the 74 teams with a plus 80 differential (including
92 quarterbacks) over the same time frame, produced 48 quarterbacks
with QB1-worthy production (52.2%).
Last season, six teams posted +80 point differential-or-better
and five of them had QB1 quarterbacks: Buffalo, Kansas City, Cincinnati,
Philadelphia and Dallas. Only the 49ers (league-leading +173)
didn’t have a fantasy-worthy quarterback… they just
had a monster defense and Christian McCaffrey.
At the other end of the spectrum, three of four teams with negative
80 differential in 2022 (Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona and Chicago)
didn’t have a QB1 with only “da Bears” and Fields
making the list.
By-the-way that Brock Purdy 19.5 Rating is correct, but, they
weren’t behind much down the stretch last season –
just twice in his nine games. (He went 4-of-11 for 66 yards, zero
TDs and 1 INT when behind late in those two games)
