Brees killed fantasy owners last week with eight fantasy points
on the road against the Cowboys. It was the third time this year
in which Brees failed to reach at least double-digit points, with
all three occurrences happening on the road. Why would I recommend
Brees in cash with the Saints heading on the road to play the
Bucs? Tampa Bay ranks in the top 10 in points allowed to quarterbacks,
running backs, and wide receivers and this is a get well game
for the Saints and Brees. It also has the makings for a shootout,
with Brees needing to pass more than usual to get the victory.
Winston is just as likely to get benched in this game as he is
to throw for 400 yards and four touchdowns. Trusting the former
first overall pick in cash or season-long leagues can be a tenuous
task, but his massive upside in what could be the highest scoring
game of the week is too attractive to pass up. I plan on pairing
Winston with Chris Godwin or Adam Humphries and possibly Cameron
Brate for a Bucs triple stack.
Fading Aaron Rodgers last week was a difficult call based on
the fact that I am a closet Rodgers fan. I am also a big fan of
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, but I am looking elsewhere
this week with Kanas City hosting the Ravens. It is entirely within
the realm of possible outcomes for Mahomes to torch the Ravens
for another four-touchdown game, but I tend to lean on the side
of a lower scoring game than many might expect. I have the Chiefs
winning this game and Mahomes will finish again as a top quarterback.
I don’t expect a high scoring game, making Mahomes not worth the
$7k price tag when there are so many other attractive plays that
will give owners a chance for better options at WR and RB.
All season long I have recommended paying up for top running
backs in cash games while targeting mid-tier wide receivers with
high volume. This week is no different, as I feel that paying
the $8,600 premium for Zeke at home against the Eagles in a critical
divisional matchup is worth the cost. Elliott is averaging just
over 30 points in his last four games, while the Eagles run defense
that started off the season strong just gave up a 90-yard rushing
touchdown to the ageless Adrian Peterson. In addition to a hefty
load on the ground, Zeke is finally getting featured in the passing
game with an average of six receptions in each of his last four
games.
Mike McCarthy is no longer the head coach and play caller for
the Green Bay Packers. In addition to insisting on an antiquated
passing game that failed to make the most of Aaron Rodgers, McCarthy
continued to insist on using Jamaal Williams in addition to Jones
in the running game despite Jones’ clearly superior play.
With cold temperatures expected and an Atlanta team decimated
by injuries coming to town, I expect Jones to have a field day
on Sunday. Rodgers should fare well, but don’t be surprised
to see Jones post around 100 total yards and a score or two.
With so many top running backs starting down excellent matchups
this week it is difficult to find one to fade. Eight of the highest
priced options one DK are facing off against teams ranked in the
bottom quarter against the run. For this reason, I dove a bit
deeper than usual to recommend fading Josh Adams against a Dallas
defense that ranks second in fewest points allowed and just shut
down Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints offense. With at least
20 carries in each of his previous two games, Adams has emerged
as the primary running back for the Eagles. But he is averaging
just over 4.0 yards per carry in those games, and the Cowboys
will likely shut down the run this Sunday.
Keenan Allen proved to be a fantasy beast last week with 14 catches
for 148 yards and one touchdown on 19 targets against the Steelers.
Nineteen targets will be tough to duplicate, and I doubt the Bengals
will make the same mistake the Steelers did by placing a linebacker
like Bud Dupree on Allen in the slot. But regardless of who Marvin
Lewis matches up in the slot against Allen he should garner close
to 10 targets in this game and should once again reach 100 yards
with a possible touchdown.
Jones posted eight catches for 93 yards and a score against the
Jets when the two teams faced off at Met Life Stadium three weeks
ago. Although he stumbled with zero catches against the Jags the
following week, he returned to form last week with nine catches
for 67 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Dolphins. With
the Bills releasing both Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes last
week, Jones could see an even higher target share this week at
home against the Jets.
Golladay makes me nervous on many fronts. First, he is questionable
with a hamstring injury, and Matthew Stafford is also dealing
with a back ailment. Second, Patrick Peterson will likely shadow
him around the field and could make his life miserable. Third,
both teams are terrible, and it would not surprise me to see LeGarrette
Blount score three touchdowns in this game and kill the value
of all other Lions players.
Once against Eric Ebron is the best cash game play of the week
as the Colts take on the Texans in Houston. Not only is Ebron
the favorite target for Andrew Luck, but the Colts may also be
without T.Y. Hilton in what could be a high scoring game. While
I believe expecting another 16 targets for Ebron may be a silly
assumption, it is not out of the question for him to post his
fourth double-digit target game of the season, and the Texans
allow the 7th-most points to opposing tight ends.
McDonald has a decent target floor with an average of six targets
in each of his previous three games, and the Raiders allow the
most points to opposing tight ends. With James Conner out and
a chance that the Steelers struggle to move the ball on the ground,
this week could be a monster game for McDonald in GPP.
The days of Gronk being a dominant fantasy force are likely behind
us, with the former consensus No.1 ranked TE posting only four
games this season of double-digit fantasy points. Gronk appears
to be breaking down, and the Patriots do not feature him as a
focal point of the offense like in previous seasons. Look for
the Pats to run all over the Dolphins with Gronk taking a secondary
role.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost:
Chargers ($3500) vs. Bengals
Well Priced with Upside: Cardinals
($2300) vs. Detroit
