With a consistent floor of at least 22 fantasy points in his
last two games and a ceiling of as high as 40 against Houston
Week 4, Andrew Luck has been a stud DFS quarterback for the past
month. A team in full rebuild mode with sites on Las Vegas, the
Raiders allow the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks.
Although Andy Dalton at home is also an excellent option for cash
game players, Luck provides less of a question mark and a higher
floor.
Winston threw the ball a combined 93 times in his last two games
for 760 yards. I always try to target quarterbacks on teams with
good offenses and bad defenses, especially if they are inexpensive
relative to their projected total. Winston hits the mark on those
factors and should have another great game against a Bengal defense
that allows the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Pair
Winston with Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard for an inexpensive GPP
game stack with high upside.
Benching Mahomes might seem ludicrous to most readers based on
the fact that Mahomes scored an average of 34 fantasy points in
his last two games. While I do think Mahomes will put up points
and will be a solid start, I anticipate that the Chiefs will focus
on running the ball this week against a Denver team that allows
the second-most rushing yards this season. Mahomes will certainly
get his, I just think he may not put up the monster numbers owners
have come to expect.
For me to recommend fading a player like Patrick Mahomes, logic
would tell you that I must be high on Kareem Hunt. After a slow
start to the season, Hunt has been one of the most consistent
fantasy running backs not named Todd Gurley, with at least one
touchdown dating back to Week 3 against the 49ers. Paring Hunt
with James Conner this week is an excellent foundation in cash
games that should give you a solid chance to win money.
As a Royce Freeman apologist, Phillip Lindsay has been a thorn
in my side all season, taking carries away from Freeman and outplaying
his fellow rookie in the Denver backfield. With Freeman ruled
out for the game with an ankle sprain, Lindsay should see a career-high
in carries and around five receptions out of the backfield. The
only worry is if Vance Joseph and the Denver coaching staff continue
to make a bad choice by involving Devontae Booker more than they
should.
After a breakout 34.9-point game last week against the Bills
that included 159 total yards and two touchdowns, Marlon Mack
(ankle) is a favorite play this week for many fantasy analysts.
I love Mack as a player and the matchup against the Raiders is
excellent, I just don’t think the Colts will need to run
Mack as much in this game and his shaky injury status is concerning.
Playing studs against the Bucs pass defense has been a recipe
for success for cash game players this year. Although Green is
not on the same level as elite fantasy options like Adam Thielen,
he should get at least ten targets for the fourth consecutive
game, and the Bucs have allowed at least 100 yards or a score
to No.1 receivers each week in 2018. Cash game players pay up
for guaranteed production, and Green, this week against Tampa
Bay, is as close to a sure thing that you can get.
Some may argue that Godwin is more of a cash play than a tournament
option because he has yet to put up a big game or score more than
one touchdown in a week. But I argue that he is an excellent tournament
play in the fact that he gives you a ton of upside as one of the
favorite red zone targets for Jameis Winston in what could be
a high-scoring game at Paul Brown Stadium. His $4,500 price tag
makes him a nice play, regardless of the format.
The matchup at home against the Jets is great, and so is his
price, but I am staying away from Robinson if he suits up on Sunday.
Groin injuries can flare up at any time, and I anticipate that
the Bears will have this game locked up by halftime. If you are
looking for wide receiver shares in this game, I recommend going
with Taylor Gabriel and pocket the $500 savings.
With a touchdown in each of his last three games and two weeks
with at least 86 receiving yards, Trey Burton looks to be building
a strong rapport with Mitchell Trubisky. The groin injury that
will either limit or keep Allen Robinson out of the game will
benefit Trubisky with more targets.
McDonald posted an impressive line against the Bengals before
the bye with seven catches for 68 yards on a season-high eight
targets. Will he continue to be active in the passing game, or
will he get just one catch for six yards like he did Week 5 against
the Falcons? His inconsistency makes him a risk in cash games,
but he is an attractive option in GPP with a sky-high ceiling.
I am fading Kelce this week not because I think he will do poorly,
but more so because I don’t think he will live up to his
$6,800 salary and outproduce other players like Burton or David
Njoku. Although he is due for a touchdown or two after failing
to score since Week 4, I think the Chiefs will run the ball and
find success beating the Broncos deep.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost:
Bears ($4,100) vs. Jets
Well Priced with Upside: Steelers ($2,300) vs.
Browns
