Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 17
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today
Player Rankings and Projections
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| Buffalo Bills |
| Rank |
Player |
Projections |
| QB 23 |
Kyle Orton |
Pass: 235, 1 TD Rush: 10, 0 |
| RB 21 |
Fred Jackson |
Rush: 60, 0 TD Rec: 4-30, 0 |
| RB 35 |
C.J. Spiller |
Rush: 40, 0 TD Rec: 1-10, 0 |
| RB 68 |
Anthony Dixon |
Rush: 10, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
| WR 25 |
Sammy Watkins |
Rec: 6-75, 1 TD |
| WR 52 |
Robert Woods |
Rec: 3-45, 0 TD |
| TE 19 |
Scott Chandler |
Rec: 3-40, 0 TD |
| K 25 |
Dan Carpenter |
FG: 1/1 XP: 2/2 |
| DEF 11 |
Defense / ST |
|
|
|
|
| New England Patriots |
| Rank |
Player |
Projections |
 QB 22 |
Tom Brady  |
Pass: 155, 2 TD Rush: 0, 0 |
 QB 35 |
Jimmy Garoppolo |
Pass: 85, 0 TD Rush: 5, 0 |
| RB 32 |
Shane Vereen |
Rush: 30, 0 TD Rec: 4-25, 0 |
| RB 43 |
Brandon Bolden |
Rush: 35, 0 TD Rec: 1-10, 0 |
| RB 50 |
James White |
Rush: 25, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
| RB 55 |
LeGarrette Blount |
Rush: 25, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
| WR 33 |
Danny Amendola |
Rec: 5-75, 0 TD |
| WR 35 |
Brandon LaFell |
Rec: 5-65, 0 TD |
| TE 17 |
Tim Wright |
Rec: 4-45, 0 TD |
| K 5 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
FG: 1/1 XP: 3/3 |
| DEF 9 |
Defense / ST |
|
|
|
Game Notes
 Bills Last week, QB Kyle Orton passed for 329 yards with 3 TDs & reached 100 career TDs. Passed for 299 yards with 2 TDs for 94.1 rating in last meeting. Has 2,842 pass yards & needs 158 to reach 3,000 for 3rd season in career... RB Fred Jackson has 4 rush TDs in past 4 vs. NE. Last week, led team in catches (9) & rec. yards (93). Has career-high 497 rec. yards & needs 3 to become 1st Bills RB to reach 500 since 2001 (LARRY CENTERS)... WR Sammy Watkins (No. 4 overall) leads AFC rookies in rec. yards (925) & ranks 2nd in catches (62) with 5 TDs. In past 5 on road, has 23 catches for 478 yards & 2 TDs. In last meeting, TE Scott Chandler had career-high 105 rec. yards on 6 catches... Bills lead NFL with 50 sacks & are only team with 3 players with 9+ sacks (DE Mario Williams, DT Marcell Dareus & LB Jerry Hughes). Williams has 8 sacks in past 7. Dareus leads NFL DTs with 10 sacks. Hughes (9.5) needs half sack to record back-to-back 10-sack seasons. Has 4 sacks in past 5 vs. AFC East.
 Patriots Have won 10 of past 11... Last week, BILL BELICHICK (230) surpassed HOFer CURLY LAMBEAU (229) for 4th most total victories by head coach in NFL history... QB Tom Brady has 23-2 record (.920) vs. Buf. & has passed for 6,178 yards & 58 TDs (most vs. any opponent) with 101.9 rating. In past 11 overall, has 3,238 pass yards (294.4 per game) with 29 TDs vs. 7 INTs for 104.4 rating... In past 8 with Pats (incl. playoffs), RB LeGarrette Blount has 11 rush TDs... TE Rob Gronkowski leads NFL TEs with 1,124 receiving yards & needs 76 to join TONY GONZALEZ & JIMMY GRAHAM as only TEs ever with 2 1,200-yard rec. seasons. Has 8 TDs in past 8 & aims for 4th in row with TD. Since entering NFL in 2010, is tied for 1st in NFL with 54 TD rec. WR Julian Edelman aims for 3rd in row with TD catch. In last meeting, WR Brandon LaFell had 4 catches for 97 yards & 2 TDs... DE Chandler Jones has 6 sacks in past 8. LB Jamie Collins has 3 sacks, INT, FF & blocked FG in past 4. Leads team with 111 tackles, incl. game-high 11 vs. NYJ.
Results and Schedule
|
|
| New England Patriots |
| Week |
Date |
Opp |
H/A |
Score |
Dif |
| 1 |
2014-09-07 |
MIA |
A |
L 20-33 |
-13 |
| 2 |
2014-09-14 |
MIN |
A |
W 30-7 |
+23 |
| 3 |
2014-09-21 |
OAK |
H |
W 16-9 |
+7 |
| 4 |
2014-09-29 |
KC |
A |
L 14-41 |
-27 |
| 5 |
2014-10-05 |
CIN |
H |
W 43-17 |
+26 |
| 6 |
2014-10-12 |
BUF |
A |
W 37-22 |
+15 |
| 7 |
2014-10-16 |
NYJ |
H |
W 27-25 |
+2 |
| 8 |
2014-10-26 |
CHI |
H |
W 51-23 |
+28 |
| 9 |
2014-11-02 |
DEN |
H |
W 43-21 |
+22 |
| 10 |
|
Bye |
|
|
|
| 11 |
2014-11-16 |
IND |
A |
W 42-20 |
+22 |
| 12 |
2014-11-23 |
DET |
H |
W 34-9 |
+25 |
| 13 |
2014-11-30 |
GB |
A |
L 21-26 |
-5 |
| 14 |
2014-12-07 |
SD |
A |
W 23-14 |
+9 |
| 15 |
2014-12-14 |
MIA |
H |
W 41-13 |
+28 |
| 16 |
2014-12-21 |
NYJ |
A |
W 17-16 |
+1 |
| 17 |
2014-12-28 |
BUF |
H |
L 9-17 |
-8 |
|
|
Offense Stats Comparison
| |
BUF
Offense |
NE
Offense |
NFL
Avg. |
Adv. |
| Points for |
22.0 |
29.8 |
21.7 |
NE |
| Rushing yards |
86.8 |
92.5 |
111.9 |
NE |
| Rushing yards per attempt |
3.40 |
4.29 |
4.21 |
NE |
| Completion % |
62.6% |
65.1% |
62.5% |
NE |
| Passing yards |
223.0 |
272.5 |
230.2 |
NE |
| Passing yards per completion |
9.34 |
10.50 |
10.67 |
NE |
| Passing yards per attempt |
5.84 |
6.83 |
6.67 |
NE |
| Interceptions |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
NE |
| Fumbles lost |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
- |
| Sacks allowed |
2.0 |
0.5 |
2.4 |
NE |
| 3rd down conversions |
35.6% |
51.9% |
39.0% |
NE |
| 4th down conversions |
50.0% |
100.0% |
46.3% |
NE |
| Time of possession |
30:32 |
29:30 |
30:03 |
BUF |
|
|
|
Defense Stats Comparison
| |
BUF
Defense |
NE
Defense |
NFL
Avg. |
Adv. |
| Points against |
17.3 |
15.8 |
21.7 |
NE |
| Rushing yards |
122.5 |
84.0 |
111.9 |
NE |
| Rushing yards per attempt |
4.54 |
3.39 |
4.21 |
NE |
| Completion % |
57.3% |
57.0% |
62.5% |
NE |
| Passing yards |
190.0 |
261.5 |
230.2 |
BUF |
| Passing yards per completion |
9.89 |
11.89 |
10.67 |
BUF |
| Passing yards per attempt |
5.66 |
6.77 |
6.67 |
BUF |
| INT return |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
BUF |
| Fumble recoveries |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
BUF |
| Sacks |
2.3 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
NE |
| 3rd down conversions |
30.3% |
36.0% |
39.0% |
BUF |
| 4th down conversions |
50.0% |
50.0% |
46.3% |
- |
| Time of possession |
29:28 |
30:30 |
30:03 |
BUF |
|
|
Special Teams Stats Comparison
| |
BUF |
NE |
NFL
Avg. |
Adv. |
| Yards per punt return |
12.4 |
7.6 |
8.7 |
BUF |
| Yards per kick return |
20.7 |
21.9 |
23.1 |
NE |
| Yards allowed per punt return |
7.4 |
8.1 |
8.7 |
BUF |
| Yards allowed per kick return |
18.6 |
21.1 |
23.1 |
BUF |
|
|
|
Misc Stats Comparison
| |
BUF |
NE |
NFL
Avg. |
Adv. |
| Penalties |
7.5 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
NE |
| Penalty yards |
61.3 |
53.0 |
54.8 |
NE |
|
|
Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game
through Weeks 11 to 16 of the 2014 season after deducting the best
and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per
pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on
totals through Weeks 11 to 16 with no adjustment.
Weather
Team vs. Team History
| Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots |
| Season |
Week |
Date |
Vis |
Home |
Score |
Winner |
| 2000 |
10 |
2000-11-05 |
BUF |
NE |
16-13 |
BUF |
| 2000 |
16 |
2000-12-17 |
NE |
BUF |
13-10 |
NE |
| 2001 |
9 |
2001-11-11 |
BUF |
NE |
11-21 |
NE |
| 2001 |
14 |
2001-12-16 |
NE |
BUF |
12-9 |
NE |
| 2002 |
9 |
2002-11-03 |
NE |
BUF |
38-7 |
NE |
| 2002 |
14 |
2002-12-08 |
BUF |
NE |
17-27 |
NE |
| 2003 |
1 |
2003-09-07 |
NE |
BUF |
0-31 |
BUF |
| 2003 |
17 |
2003-12-27 |
BUF |
NE |
0-31 |
NE |
| 2004 |
4 |
2004-10-03 |
NE |
BUF |
31-17 |
NE |
| 2004 |
10 |
2004-11-14 |
BUF |
NE |
6-29 |
NE |
| 2005 |
8 |
2005-10-30 |
BUF |
NE |
16-21 |
NE |
| 2005 |
14 |
2005-12-11 |
NE |
BUF |
35-7 |
NE |
| 2006 |
1 |
2006-09-10 |
BUF |
NE |
17-19 |
NE |
| 2006 |
7 |
2006-10-22 |
NE |
BUF |
28-6 |
NE |
| 2007 |
3 |
2007-09-23 |
BUF |
NE |
7-38 |
NE |
| 2007 |
11 |
2007-11-18 |
NE |
BUF |
56-10 |
NE |
| 2008 |
10 |
2008-11-09 |
BUF |
NE |
10-20 |
NE |
| 2008 |
17 |
2008-12-28 |
NE |
BUF |
13-0 |
NE |
| 2009 |
1 |
2009-09-14 |
BUF |
NE |
24-25 |
NE |
| 2009 |
15 |
2009-12-20 |
NE |
BUF |
17-10 |
NE |
| 2010 |
3 |
2010-09-26 |
BUF |
NE |
30-38 |
NE |
| 2010 |
16 |
2010-12-26 |
NE |
BUF |
34-3 |
NE |
| 2011 |
3 |
2011-09-25 |
NE |
BUF |
31-34 |
BUF |
| 2011 |
17 |
2012-01-01 |
BUF |
NE |
21-49 |
NE |
| 2012 |
4 |
2012-09-30 |
NE |
BUF |
52-28 |
NE |
| 2012 |
10 |
2012-11-11 |
BUF |
NE |
31-37 |
NE |
| 2013 |
1 |
2013-09-08 |
NE |
BUF |
23-21 |
NE |
| 2013 |
17 |
2013-12-29 |
BUF |
NE |
20-34 |
NE |
| 2014 |
6 |
2014-10-12 |
NE |
BUF |
37-22 |
NE |
|
Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database.
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