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Regular Season, Updated: 9/4/19

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 Patrick Mahomes, KC (Bye: 12)
1
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1995-09-17   Age: 24
College: Texas Tech   Draft: 2017 Round 1 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017KC122 35 284 0 1 7 10 0 15.2 15.2
2018KC16383 580 5,097 50 12 60 272 2 494.1 30.9
2019 (Projected)KC 394 597 4,720 37 15 59 255 1 415.5  

Outlook: The reigning NFL Most Valuable Player, a case could be made that Patrick Mahomes was also the fantasy football MVP this past season as he racked up a ridiculous 50 touchdown passes on 5,097 yards passing, adding an additional two touchdowns as a runner.

Mahomes' average draft position in 2018 (10.09, QB15) is really what made him the value he was, though, as he wasn't even being selected as a QB1 in many leagues. This season he'll almost certainly be the highest-drafted quarterback in just about every league, which means that he'd need to replicate or at least come close to his production from a season ago to truly return value given his draft position.

There are reasons to be optimistic about Mahomes meeting or even exceeding his 2018 numbers here in 2019, however. Many expected that Tyreek Hill would miss some time but the league has now made it clear that Hill will not be suspended, which certainly helps the Kansas City offense. Tight end Travis Kelce will also be back, alongside Sammy Watkins who will now be entering his second season in the offense. The Chiefs also made a significant investment in their passing game when they drafted young speedster wide receiver Mecole Hardman in the second round of April's NFL Draft. Many viewed Hardman as an insurance policy for Hill should he miss significant time, but now the Chiefs will have the benefit of rostering two of the league's fastest players at wide receiver, potentially putting them on the field at the same time. Combine that with Mahomes' cannon of an arm and it's easy to see why experts are excited about this offense.

Certainly there is value in not having to spend waiver wire position or FAAB dollars on your quarterback position, but the value that even elite-level quarterbacks give over their peers is often not worth their opportunity cost of losing out on high quality starters at positions with fewer usable assets, specifically running back and wide receiver. Mahomes supporters will point to his 2018 numbers as a reason that he is an exception to the "rule" that most fantasy experts agree on, which is that quarterbacks are overdrafted in most leagues. If he can produce that kind of output again in 2019 then Mahomes will likely live up to his current ADP, but history tells us that replicating 50 touchdown seasons just does not happen. Even 40 touchdown seasons are extremely difficult to accomplish in back-to-back seasons. If there's anyone who can do it, though, it might just be Mahomes in this rocket-fueled Chiefs offense.


 Deshaun Watson, HOU (Bye: 10)
2
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1995-09-14   Age: 24
College: Clemson   Draft: 2017 Round 1 (12) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017HOU7126 204 1,699 19 8 36 269 2 199.9 28.6
2018HOU16345 505 4,165 26 9 99 551 5 397.4 24.8
2019 (Projected)HOU 341 525 4,145 27 10 89 517 4 391.0  

Outlook: Watson proved sophomore slump nay-sayers wrong with an impressive second season in which the former Clemson Tiger passed for just under 4200 yards and 26 touchdowns. He added 551 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground to finish as the fifth-ranked quarterback with 24.8 fantasy points per game.

Watson achieved top-five status despite a slew of injuries stemming from the fact that he was sacked more than any QB in the league. The Texans addressed their dire need on the offensive line in the draft, which will hopefully result in Watson staying upright and healthy.

With a wide receiving corps of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Keke Coutee, Watson has more than enough weapons to produce elite fantasy production once again in 2019. Although, a lack of an elite receiving tight end option and the fact that Fuller and Coutee are somewhat injury prone could be a concern.

Despite those issues, the elite running ability Watson possesses, and the fact that Bill O'Brien continues to use Watson's legs in the red zone, make him a dual-threat weapon worthy of a top-five pick at the position.


 Aaron Rodgers, GB (Bye: 11)
3
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1983-12-02   Age: 35
College: California   Draft: 2005 Round 1 (24) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016GB16401 610 4,428 40 7 67 369 4 442.3 27.6
2017GB7154 238 1,675 16 6 24 126 0 160.4 22.9
2018GB16372 597 4,442 25 2 43 269 2 361.0 22.6
2019 (Projected)GB 396 609 4,388 30 7 48 258 2 377.2  

Outlook: The saying in pro sports is that availability is the best ability. But when is that only a half truth? When you play a full season on a mysteriously damaged knee, that's when. Although Aaron Rodgers finished as a QB1, had an absurd 25-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and once again threw for over 4,400 yards, he failed to finish in the top-5 among fantasy quarterbacks. 2018 was the first time that's happened in a 16-game season since his first time as a full-time starter in 2008.

Clearly the knee injury suffered in Week 1 affected Rodgers the entire season. He struggled to avoid the rush, wasn't nearly as dangerous with his legs and lacked the normal touch his passes typically have. Add in the fact that he was breaking in a host of young, unfamiliar receivers behind Davante Adams, and there you have the reason the Packers only reached 30 points four times last season.

There are some fairly significant coaching changes coming for Rodgers in 2019. For the first time since he became Green Bay's full-time starter in 2008, Mike McCarthy won't be the head coach voice in the headset. In comes fairly green Matt LaFleur who is yet another branch of the Sean McVay coaching tree, but is only a few years older than Rodgers. While LaFleur has worked alongside some of the league's most impressive offensive minds, he failed to really maximize the talent he had in Tennessee last year as the offensive coordinator. Rodgers had a rocky ending to his relationship with McCarthy, and it remains to be seen how he'll react to the change.

For all the changes going on in Green Bay from the roster and front office, to the coaching staff, Rodgers' fantasy value will as usual, come down to his health. Significant injuries to his calf, shoulder, and knee in recent seasons have been his downfall, and he left his final game of 2018 with a fairly significant concussion. He's in his mid-30s, but is still one of the best players in the NFL. If the talent around him can continue to develop, he's as good of a bet as any to finish as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks.


 Matt Ryan, ATL (Bye: 9)
4
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 220   DOB: 1985-05-17   Age: 34
College: Boston College   Draft: 2008 Round 1 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016ATL16373 534 4,944 38 7 35 117 0 410.9 25.7
2017ATL16342 529 4,095 20 12 32 143 0 299.1 18.7
2018ATL16422 608 4,924 35 7 33 125 3 416.7 26.0
2019 (Projected)ATL 382 570 4,556 29 11 82 131 1 362.9  

Outlook: Like other top-ranked QBs in 2018, Matt Ryan's impressive season last year was overshadowed by the breakout year by Patrick Mahomes. Ryan's 26 fantasy points per game were .3 points per game higher than his MVP season in 2016, and his three rushing touchdowns were the most in his career.

A dreadful defense caused by significant injuries to multiple stars on the defensive side of the ball created a situation in which Ryan and the offense were required to score a ton to stay in games. While that same scenario does not appear to be in play this year with those defensive players returning from injury, the Falcons do play in a tough division against with the Saints and Bucs, to teams who boast high powered offenses.

Like his fellow NFC South counterpart, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan boasts significant splits in games played inside in the dome. The good news for Ryan owners is the fact that the Falcons play all but three of their games indoors this year, including shootout-worthy matchups against the Colts, Eagles, and Cardinals.

Another positive for Ryan and the entire Falcons offense is the draft capital that the team used this offseason to bolster their offensive line. If given time to survey the field, Ryan can put up numbers on par with just about any other quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes.


 Jameis Winston, TB (Bye: 7)
5
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 231   DOB: 1994-01-06   Age: 25
College: Florida State   Draft: 2015 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016TB16345 568 4,090 28 18 52 168 1 339.3 21.2
2017TB13282 442 3,504 19 11 33 135 1 270.7 20.8
2018TB11244 378 2,992 19 14 49 281 1 259.7 23.6
2019 (Projected)TB 348 561 4,265 27 15 59 277 1 355.0  

Outlook: After an up-and-down 2018 that included a suspension and multiple benchings for erratic play, Jameis Winston enters 2019 as the unquestioned starter for new head coach Bruce Arians in what is a make or break season for the former first overall pick. Winston is effectively playing for a new contract either with the Bucs or with another team, which will hopefully motivate the promising young quarterback to deliver his best season as a professional.

Winston finished the season as the No.9 quarterback in points per game, tied with Drew Brees and less than a point behind Jared Goff. If you combine the stats for the two quarterbacks in Tampa Bay last season, Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, you would have had a top-three fantasy quarterback with well over 500 passing yards and 35 touchdowns.

The addition of head coach Bruce Arians is going to be a positive for all of the skill portion players in the passing game, especially Winston, as Arians has a long track record of increasing ADOT for his receivers and improving the production of his quarterbacks.

Another positive for Winston is the fact that he plays in a tough division with high scoring teams like the Falcons and Saints, and the defense for the Bucs projects to be one of the worst in the NFC. A gun-slinging quarterback with a great head coach, fantastic skill position players, and a terrible defense is a winning formula for fantasy production. Let's just hope Winston isn't too much of a gun-slinger and gets benched.


 Baker Mayfield, CLE (Bye: 7)
6
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1995-04-14   Age: 24
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018CLE14310 486 3,725 27 14 39 131 0 307.4 22.0
2019 (Projected)CLE 354 553 4,255 29 15 44 159 1 350.7  

Outlook: In just one season of football (14 games to be exact) Baker Mayfield has reset the expectations of a morose franchise. Along the way to setting the rookie record for most passing touchdowns (27), Mayfield displayed the moxie, accuracy, and big play ability that made him the No.1 pick in the 2018 draft, and put the Browns in the rare air of playoff contention. Mayfield proved the doubters wrong, but can he and the team carry over the momentum into 2019?

There is every reason to believe that Mayfield can, and should improve on his 2018 numbers. Remember, he started the first two games of last season on the bench, and the additions of OBJ and Kareem Hunt add to an already stocked pantry of offensive delights. The continuity he will have with his head coach means Mayfield should be poised for a breakout. But before you go betting the house on Cleveland's new prize horse, remember, he's the fuse sitting on top of a powder keg of strong personalities. There are already rumblings that the transition to new OC Todd Monken is off to a rocky start. While the Browns have the potential to be the new darlings of the NFL, there are some who believe they are just as likely to implode. They are led by a very green head coach, and things could spiral out of control quickly should the team not find the success it anticipates.

From a purely fantasy perspective, Mayfield is part of the deepest position in the game, and I'm frankly not in love with his offensive line, especially the left side. There is no doubt in my mind that Mayfield has monster upside (top 3), but he doesn't come without risk (despite the high touchdown totals, his 15 interceptions in 14 games tell me he was still too loose with the ball) and his very early off-season ADP seems a little high for me. Mayfield helped win me two leagues last year, so I have a soft spot for him, and would be happy to run him back as my QB1 as long as I can draft him in a comfortable spot.


 Drew Brees, NO (Bye: 9)
7
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 209   DOB: 1979-01-15   Age: 40
College: Purdue   Draft: 2001 Round 2 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016NO16471 673 5,207 37 15 23 20 2 422.4 26.4
2017NO16387 537 4,338 23 8 33 12 2 322.1 20.1
2018NO15364 489 3,992 32 5 31 22 4 353.8 23.6
2019 (Projected)NO 393 546 4,365 30 7 3 17 2 352.0  

Outlook: Much has been made about the demise of Drew Brees, as the first-ballot Hall of Famer finished as the number 10 quarterback in fantasy despite setting an NFL record with a completion percentage of 74.4.

Brees' 3992 passing yards and 489 pass attempts were the fewest since he joined the Saints back in 2007, and his No.10 ranking would have been even worse had he not posted a career-high of four rushing touchdowns.

Based on the team's commitment to run the ball and improvement to what for many years was a bad defense, the days of Brees throwing the ball 670 times for 5000 yards are likely a thing of the past. At age 40 and with Alvin Kamara and a stout offensive line, head coach Sean Payton is doing the smart thing for his football team by limiting the number of times Brees throws the ball and gets hit by opposing linebackers and defensive lineman.

Despite throwing for less than 4000 yards (It should be noted that Brees only played in 15 games), Brees did increase his passing touchdown total by nine from the previous season. His volume is down, but his efficiency went up, and he has averaged 2.5 rushing touchdowns in each of his last two seasons.

Sure, the days of Brees being a league-winning quarterback are likely over. But the NFL's all-time leading passer is still in command of a top-5 offense filled with talented skill position players. He may not get you 5000 yards, but he is falling in ADP and could be a nice option for owners who miss out on one of the top six quarterbacks - especially in leagues who punish quarterbacks for interceptions.


 Jared Goff, LAR (Bye: 9)
8
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1994-10-14   Age: 25
College: California   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016LAR7112 205 1,089 5 7 8 16 1 82.1 11.7
2017LAR15297 478 3,809 28 7 28 51 1 313.6 20.9
2018LAR16364 561 4,688 32 12 43 108 2 385.2 24.1
2019 (Projected)LAR 343 544 4,351 29 11 15 85 1 348.1  

Outlook: Once considered a bust by many analysts, 24-year-old Jared Goff now leads one of the most potent offenses in the league into the 2019. Goff, however, may be facing more pressure than ever before as Rams running back Todd Gurley continues to deal with chronic knee problems. While there is some concern that the Rams offense could take a step back overall if Gurley misses significant time this season, it's also true that Sean McVay would likely lean more heavily on the passing game if his star running back is out. This could actually lead to an uptick in pass attempts for Goff this season, who already finished as the sixth-highest scorer at the position in 2018.

Goff now has to be considered a locked in top-12 option for fantasy purposes and a real contender to be a top-three option at the position given the weapons he has at his disposal. It can often be difficult to predict which one of these Rams receivers is set to command the highest target share in a given week and the best way to hedge your bet might just be to invest in Goff. Currently being selected barely inside the top-12 in most platforms, Goff is being drafted essentially at his floor with plenty of upside. There is something to be said for simply streaming the position each week, but if you're someone who is looking for a consistently high-floor option at QB with the potential for some boom weeks, Goff really is a great value right now in fantasy drafts.

The one major concern with Goff is that he was not nearly as successful without Gurley as he was with the all-pro running back. In weeks 15 and 16, as well as the NFC Championship and Super Bowl when Gurley was either out or significantly limited, Goff struggled to produce fantasy-relevant performances. He threw for just 235 yards per game with six total touchdowns, completing just 61 percent of his passes with two interceptions. Worse yet, four of those six touchdowns came in the Rams' Week 16 victory over the 49ers and he was held to just two scores in the other three games mentioned. While this is way too small of a sample size to give us any definitive proof that Goff cannot produce without Gurley on the field, it is a legitimate concern and one that we need to be aware of if making the investment in Goff in fantasy football.


 Carson Wentz, PHI (Bye: 10)
9
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 237   DOB: 1992-12-30   Age: 26
College: North Dakota State   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (2) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016PHI16379 607 3,782 16 14 46 150 2 280.1 17.5
2017PHI13265 440 3,296 33 7 64 299 0 326.7 25.1
2018PHI11279 401 3,074 21 7 34 93 0 247.0 22.5
2019 (Projected)PHI 376 579 4,285 28 10 61 220 1 354.3  

Outlook: Carson Wentz enters the 2019 season as one of the better values at the quarterback position. Although he was limited in each of his last two seasons with leg and back injuries, Wentz continues to put up QB production in what should be a potent Philadelphia offense.

Wentz played in only 11 games last season as a back injury forced him the IR. However, in those games, Wentz averaged more fantasy points than a host of other fantasy players, including Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Kirk Cousins.

The second overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft ranked 5th overall for qualified QBs on our consistency rankings (at least ten games), behind only Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton.

Positive trends surround the Eagles offense on both the offensive line and skill positions, as Howie Roseman added tackle Andre Dillard in the draft, along with running back Miles Sanders and wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Perhaps the most significant addition to the offense is the return of wide receiver DeSean Jackson, who will give Wentz a much-needed player to stretch the field.

Only a few quarterbacks in the league boast the number of weapons that Carson Wentz has at his disposal. While there is always the concern of injury, Wentz could be one of the best values of the draft.


 Cam Newton, CAR (Bye: 7)
10
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 244   DOB: 1989-05-11   Age: 30
College: Auburn   Draft: 2011 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016CAR15270 509 3,509 19 14 90 359 5 317.4 21.2
2017CAR16291 492 3,302 22 16 139 754 6 364.5 22.8
2018CAR14320 471 3,395 24 13 101 488 4 338.6 24.2
2019 (Projected)CAR 326 510 3,567 23 14 117 501 4 344.5  

Outlook: A shoulder injury cut short Cam Newton's 2018 campaign to just 14 games and limited his ability to throw the ball downfield for most of the season. Newton was clearly not himself in his final few games of action, often missing downfield targets by a large margin and relying on check-downs more than usual.

On a positive note, Newton's 68% completion percentage was by far the best of his career, and he threw for 90 more yards last season than the season prior, despite missing the final two games of the season.

With his shoulder reportedly doing better and a new throwing motion to help ease the strain on his body, Newton enters the 2019 season as a sneaky mid-to-late round QB with top 5 upside at the position.

The emergence of Christian McCaffrey as a true workhorse back, the development of D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, and the return of tight end Greg Olsen give Newton more than enough firepower at the skill positions to be successful.

If he is able to play a full 16-game schedule, throw the ball relatively accurately without pain, and continue to rush for nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns, Newton is an absolute bargain based on his ADP.


 Philip Rivers, LAC (Bye: 12)
11
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 228   DOB: 1981-12-08   Age: 37
College: North Carolina State   Draft: 2004 Round 1 (4) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016SD16349 578 4,390 33 21 14 35 0 355.0 22.2
2017LAC16360 575 4,515 28 10 18 -2 0 337.6 21.1
2018LAC16347 508 4,308 32 12 18 7 0 344.1 21.5
2019 (Projected)LAC 374 575 4,425 30 11 2 10 0 342.3  

Outlook: Veteran Philip Rivers has long been one of the most reliable, steady quarterbacks, both from a weekly and season-long standpoint. Quarterback as a whole continues to change which has meant that old school-style pocket passers like Rivers just don't have the upside that their younger position-mates do. Rivers, being one of the least-mobile quarterbacks in the league, simply does not contribute the "easy" fantasy points that players like Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton or the incoming Kyler Murray do on the ground.

This means that while he's a consistent producer who you can plug in as needed, it's very unlikely that he is ever going to ascend to be a top weekly option again. In fact, Rivers is practically a prime example of a player who fantasy owners should be looking to avoid playing on a weekly basis. Given that his realistic upside is capped at a minimal level, there's almost always an option on the waiver wire that could provide a better potential for a big week.

Of course, there are a few situations wherein it makes sense to roster, start and even potentially draft a player like Rivers, even in normal single-quarterback leagues. When you're a team that's taken many chances elsewhere and have quite a few players who are boom-bust, it might make sense to couple that with a more reliable passer like Rivers who might not give you the "pop" games, but will also avoid giving you the duds. It's also a somewhat wise decision to couple risky young quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or Josh Allen with a player like Rivers who we know has a history of staying healthy and producing solid fantasy numbers.

The Chargers aren't likely to take a significant step forward offensively this season and their quality defense means that they aren't often in many shootouts, so don't look for Rivers to finish any higher than top-eight at the position. However, he should still finish somewhere in the top half, so there's certainly value in that, especially in two-quarterback or SuperFlex formats.


 Russell Wilson, SEA (Bye: 11)
12
Height: 5’11”   Weight: 206   DOB: 1988-11-29   Age: 30
College: Wisconsin   Draft: 2012 Round 3 (12) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016SEA16353 546 4,219 21 11 72 259 1 326.9 20.4
2017SEA16339 553 3,983 34 11 95 586 3 411.8 25.7
2018SEA16280 427 3,448 35 7 67 376 0 350.0 21.9
2019 (Projected)SEA 302 471 3,628 26 9 77 401 2 337.5  

Outlook: Russell Wilson's 2018 season is an extremely interesting one because he certainly disappointed based on his average draft position, but it's hard to argue that he was actually a disappointment as a player. Wilson threw a career-high 35 touchdowns with only seven interceptions, the best ratio of his career. That type of efficiency is simply extraordinary, but the offense as a whole is a major concern right now.

Wilson is dealing with an archaic system coached by offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, where passing the ball simply seems to be an afterthought. Wilson has historically thrown the ball less often than almost any quarterback since he entered the league in 2012, but he threw the ball 126 fewer times in 2018 than he did in 2017, when he threw a career-high 553 times. That's nearly eight fewer attempts per game for an entire season. When you consider that Wilson averaged 8.1 yards per attempt this past season, Schottenheimer essentially left almost 64 passing yards per game on the table by not letting Wilson throw the ball as often as he did the year prior.

To put those numbers into perspective even further, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger led the league with 675 pass attempts in 2018. That means he averaged 15.5 more attempts per game than Wilson did. Even with Roethlisberger being significantly less effective with those pass attempts on a per-attempt than Wilson was, Roethlisberger still outscored Wilson by a wide margin on the season. Wilson is almost certainly a better passer than Roethlisberger is at this point in his career, but the offenses they're playing in are artificially boosting Roethlisberger while artificially suppressing Wilson.

To make matters worse for 2019, Wilson will be without his favorite target, wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who retired this offseason. Tyler Lockett finally broke out, which gives us some hope that Wilson will have a reliable target out wide, but it's a very unproven depth chart. Seahawks did add receivers in the draft, including the physical specimen that is D.K. Metcalf as well as fourth-rounder Gary Jennings and even took a flier on seventh-rounder John Ursua, but the tight end position is still essentially a ghost town and the backfield isn't likely to contribute much in the passing game.

It's also worth considering that Wilson had another down year running the ball in 2018, which also limited his fantasy production. He ran the ball the fewest number of times (67) and produced the second-fewest rushing yards (376), but he also failed to get into the end zone as a runner for the first time in his career. While it's true that Wilson is still adding between two to three points per week on average as a runner, he's really taken a step back on the ground over the past three seasons as, perhaps as a product of scheme more so than anything. With the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Cam Newton and now Kyler Murray in the league, it'd be difficult to consider Wilson a top-tier rushing quarterback anymore. There's still some value in his legs, but it's more of an afterthought than we'd like.

The biggest concern with Wilson isn't that he's not effective as a passer, but rather that the team just doesn't trust him - or that they remain clueless as to how to run a productive NFL offense in 2019. Running the ball is certainly less risky and puts less pressure on a defense, but with a quarterback as talented as Wilson, you'd think that the team would be itching to throw the ball as much as possible. Wilson could and probably will see an uptick in pass attempts this season, but we also have to assume that his efficiency will dip a bit, considering that he threw a touchdown on 8.2 percent of his passes in 2018, whereas his career average is just 6.0 percent of his passes. If he regressed to his mean in that category, Wilson's touchdowns would have dropped from 35 scores to just 25 in 2018. That's a gigantic drop off in fantasy points and one that we should be aware of.

Thankfully Wilson's draft day cost has dropped off a bit this season as fantasy owners become more savvy and begin to understand that the Seattle offense just isn't built for him to succeed statistically, but he's still being selected inside the top 10 at the position. It's hard to envision a scenario where Wilson finishes lower than the top-half of the league in scoring at quarterback, but the upside just isn't there given the offensive system and his drop off in rushing production. He's a safe, but not-so-exciting pick at his current ADP.