Outlook: Like everything else Tom Brady, fantasy TB12 is the exception, not the rule, especially since his move to Tampa Bay two seasons ago. In this age of dual threat quarterbacks dominating draft boards, rankings and projections, the 45-year-old Brady is the one guy who just stands in the pocket and picks apart defenses and still dishes out ridiculous fantasy production. In 2021, he averaged nearly 27.0 fantasy points per game by leading the NFL in attempts (719), completions (485), passing yards (5316), and touchdown passes (43). The previous season, he ranked 10th in fantasy points per game (25.6) and has averaged at least 20.0 fantasy points per game every season since 2014.

The truth is, as expected, this Buccaneers offense has worked its' way more towards Brady's favored ball-control passing game than Bruce Arians' "no risk it, no biscuit" attack, which never played to the quarterback's strengths. That may explain in part why Todd Bowles is now the Bucs' head coach. But that has caused some concern among fantasy owners as well. Bowles, like all coaches who come from the defensive side of the ball, loves a strong running game. Not to worry, though. Brady's accuracy and efficiency in the short to intermediate passing game really serves as an extension of the running game. Brady dominated the fantasy rankings last season with a 102.1 QB rating (7th among NFL starters) while averaging just 7.4 yards per attempt (12th among league qualifiers).

Looking forward, Gronk has called it quits and Antonio Brown is off doing his thing (whatever that is) somewhere else. But Brady still has Mike Evans, Russell Gage has joined the fray as a free agent, Scotty Miller, Breshad Perriman, and Cyril Grayson are all capable targets who have the ability to flash, TE Cameron Brate is an underrated receiver who will get his first real shot as a full-time starter and can be a moneymaker in the red zone, RB Leonard Fournette is coming off 69 receptions a year ago (3rd amongst NFL RB's), and Giovai Bernard has receiving skills and could get a bigger role with the departure of Ronald Jones. Then, later in the season, Chris Godwin should return to the lineup after recovering from his ACL injury suffered late last season.

It all adds up to one thing. Brady is a top 5 QB1 candidate.

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Outlook: When he's on top of his game, Murray is one of the league's preeminent dual threats, which in turn makes him a potential top fantasy producer. At 5-foot-10, 207 pounds, the diminutive QB has shown a tendency to fade down the stretch over his first three seasons. These winter swoons tend to begin with some sort of injury -- in 2020, it was his shoulder, and last year an ankle -- so it's fair to have some level of concern about his durability despite missing just three games in his career.

While there are quarterbacks out there capable of delivering enough value with their arm that their running is just a bonus (e.g., Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes), Murray is more in line with Lamar Jackson where running is vital to their QB1 fantasy status. Unfortunately, Murray hasn't been used the same since he suffered the shoulder injury against Seattle in November 2020, going from almost 10 carries per game over that season's first nine games to just 5.8 rushes per contest in the 23 games since.

On the plus side, the Cardinals made some moves to fortify the passing game, adding former college teammate Marquise Brown from the Ravens to join a receiving corps that already featured DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, and drafting Trey McBride in the second round to potentially give Murray three quality tight ends to work with. While he'll be without Hopkins during his suspension, the hope for fantasy owners is that gains in the passing game help offset Murray's downturn in running.

Murray is absolutely a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but he's arguably the most volatile one apart from perhaps Jalen Hurts. As such you'll need to balance his top-three upside against what have been lengthy stretches of QB2 play over the past two seasons.

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Outlook: A quiet season passing the football meant that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts barely squeaked inside the QB1 range in 2021. His 16 touchdowns were tied (with Lamar Jackson) for the fewest among top-20 fantasy QBs, but he was one of only five top-20 QBs who finished with single-digit interceptions. The thing that really buoyed his fantasy production, however, was his rushing. Hurts quietly led all quarterbacks in rush attempts (140), rushing yards (782) and rushing touchdowns (10).

So, what's changed between this past season and now? Well, the most obvious difference is that the Eagles identified a problem that the majority of fantasy owners have been pointing to for the past few seasons which is that the team lacked legitimate outside weapons. DeVonta Smith was decent enough as a rookie, but the team really made a big splash during this year's NFL Draft when they made the move to acquire a proven producer in A.J. Brown. Brown spent the first three seasons of his NFL career in the run-heavy Tennessee offense, but still produced nearly 3,000 yards while scoring 24 touchdowns. The big-bodied receiver is a welcome addition to a Philadelphia passing game that lacked red zone production and his presence should serve to increase the passing ceiling for Hurts.

In order for Hurts to remain a QB1 for fantasy he'll need to continue to produce on the ground and while there is some risk of injury that could hamper that potential, we've seen over the years that these productive runners at the quarterback position are often times more consistent than their less-mobile counterparts. Best yet is the reality that, with a little bit of touchdown luck, Hurts could actually be a difference-maker at the top of the position. It's not difficult to imagine a world where he throws 25 touchdown passes while maintaining his rushing production, which would instantly catapult him into being in the conversation as a top five fantasy quarterback.

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Outlook: While most of the offseason speculation about the Broncos acquiring a quarterback revolved around Aaron Rodgers, Denver finally found a partner in the Seattle Seahawks, dealing three players and five draft picks for nine-time Pro Bowl selection Russell Wilson. Although Wilson is coming off a down year, which included missing games due to injury for the first time in his career, he's light years ahead of what has been seen in Mile High since the retirement of Peyton Manning following the 2015 season.

How new head coach Nathaniel Hackett chooses to feature Wilson will be interesting, as for all his talent the veteran quarterback was often utilized as a glorified game manager during his Seattle run where Pete Carroll has long prioritized defense and controlling the clock with the run. The lone exception to this was the short-lived "Let Russ cook" phase, which came to an end when Wilson threw seven INTs over a four-game stretch in 2020 where the Seahawks went 1-3.

Hackett, who spent the last three years working with Rodgers as Green Bay's offensive coordinator, is likely to be more aggressive than Carroll was, but the Packers have quietly developed a solid running game so expect a fairly balanced approach. Plus, for as much potential as the Broncos have at their skill positions, there's no singular talent on par with DK Metcalf or anyone as proven as Tyler Lockett.

Entering his age-34 season, Wilson is a fringe top-10 fantasy quarterback with the potential to slide up into the top five and possibly down into QB2 range, depending on how much he's asked to do both as a runner and passer in an offense that's high on upside but light on proven commodities.

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