Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Colts vs Texans
- (Bales) Line: HOU -1.0 Total: 48.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Texans pass defense has been struggling
recently, ranking 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (260.0)
in 2018. They have also allowed 28 passing touchdowns, while recording
15 interceptions. Andrew Luck has been enjoying an elite season,
averaging 287.1 yards and 2.4 touchdowns on 39.9 pass attempts
per game. He has also dominated the Texans, totaling 863 yards
and six touchdowns in only two games… two of his best games
this season. Luck could be throwing for all four quarters as this
game is expected to stay close throughout, and features the highest
implied total on the slate.
T.Y. Hilton has been an elite option, averaging 5.4 receptions
for 90.7 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 8.6 targets per game. Similarly
to Luck, he has found plenty of success in two games against Houston,
totaling 13 receptions for 314 yards, although he has yet to find
a touchdown against them. Dontrelle Inman has also found success
over the last two weeks, averaging a 4.5 / 61.5 / 1.0 line on
5.5 targets per game, although he has been inconsistent with low
volume in most weeks. Eric Ebron has been one of the best tight
ends in the NFL, averaging 4.1 receptions for 46.9 yards and 0.8
touchdowns on 6.9 targets per game. He has also totaled a 9 /
105 / 2 line on 18 targets against Houston this season. Chester
Rogers will also see snaps this week but he has been far too inconsistent
to consider.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Marlon Mack has quietly been enjoying
a great season (when healthy), averaging 75.7 yards and 0.8 touchdowns
on 16.3 carries through 12 games. He has only played one game
against Houston, rushing for only 33 yards on 14 carries, although
he was able to find the end zone. Nyheim Hines has flashed receiving
upside, but he has struggled to consistently produce with Mack
healthy. This isn’t a situation to consider him. Houston
has featured one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing
only 82.7 rushing yards per game. They have also allowed only
eight rushing touchdowns per game, and Indianapolis will likely
need to utilize their passing attack if they want to win this
game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson has looked outstanding
in 2018, averaging 260.3 yards and 1.6 touchdowns on 31.6 pass
attempts per game. Waston also comes with rushing potential, as
he’s averaging 34.4 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game on
the ground. He’s also averaging 321.0 yards and 1.5 touchdowns
through the air and 38.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on the ground
in his two games against the Colts. On the season, Indianapolis
is only allowing 238.0 passing yards per game. They have also
held their opponents to 21 passing touchdowns, while recording
15 interceptions.
DeAndre Hopkins has been one of the best receivers in the NFL
throughout 2018, averaging 7.2 receptions for 98.3 yards and 0.7
touchdowns on 10.2 targets per game. He has also totaled 14 receptions
for 205 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets in two games against
the Colts. Keke Coutee is expected to return to the lineup this
week, meaning DeAndre Carter will likely slide back into a reserve
role. They have three tight ends playing snaps, limiting the consistency
and upside of each player. Even though Indianapolis has struggled
against the tight end, none of the three should be considered
in this game.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: The Colts have performed well against
the run, allowing only 101.6 rushing yards per game. They have
also only allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season. Lamar Miller
has been the workhorse for Houston when healthy, averaging 69.5
yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 15.0 carries in 14 games, although
he was injured in one of those games. Alfred Blue and D’Onta
Foreman (inactive last week) could potentially back him up, although
neither will see a major role. Foreman very well could be inactive
for this game, although he won’t come with value even if
he is active.
Seahawks at Cowboys
- (Katz) Line: DAL -2.0 Total: 43.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson just had one of the strangest
seasons in recent memory. He attempted just 427 passes, the fewest
in the league among quarterbacks that made at least 14 starts.
Despite the low volume, he threw 35 touchdown passes, which amounts
to a touchdown on 8.2% of his throws. That is unsustainable efficiency
that Wilson managed to sustain throughout the entire season.
When he last played the Cowboys in Seattle, he threw for 192
yards and two touchdowns. However, this is a very different Cowboys
defense and this game is in Dallas. Tyler Lockett joined Wilson
in having an absurdly efficient year, becoming the 26th receiver
since 2000 to post 10 touchdowns with fewer than 1,000 receiving
yards. Doug Baldwin did not play against Dallas the first time
and has been an unreliable fantasy option all season, failing
to exceed 52 receiving yards in nine of his 13 games played. Cowboys
shutdown corner, Byron Jones, will likely see more of Lockett
than Baldwin, which means Lockett will need a splash play to produce.
Both of these teams like to establish the run, which will keep
volume down. This shapes up as a lower scoring game, which his
not great for your playoff fantasy roster.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Carson, he of the “running
backs don’t matter” fold, rattled off 1151 yards on
247 carries, while adding nine scores this season. He actually
had his worst game of the season against Dallas, which is not
obvious when you see that he rushed for 102 yards, but more apparent
when you realize it took him a season-high 32 carries to get there.
That won’t happen again. The Cowboys allow just 3.8 yards
per carry and have been even better since Leighton Vander Esch
took over at linebacker. Mike Davis will work in on passing downs,
and Rashaad Penny will also be available for a handful of carries
making Carson an unappealing option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I don’t want to say it was a tale
of two halves for Dak Prescott, but he certainly performed better
over the second half of the season as the Cowboys started throwing
more on first down and really opening up the offense following
the arrival of Amari Cooper. Prescott had his worst game of the
season against Seattle, completing a season low 55% of his passes
and throwing two interceptions. Prescott only threw the ball to
the wrong team eight times all season. Cooper has been very boom/bust,
even with Dallas, but he’s had a slightly higher floor than
he did in Oakland. The Cowboys would be best served throwing against
the Seahawks, as they ranked 25th this season against opposing
WR1s, allowing 78.9 receiving yards per game. Beyond Cooper, there’s
not much here in the passing game. Those looking to be super contrarian
in playoff leagues may consider tight end Blake Jarwin, who is
coming off a three touchdown game, but that is in all likelihood,
a fluke. Cole Beasley and Michael Gallup aren’t consistent
enough to be considered.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball 16 times
for 127 yards in the Cowboys loss to Seattle back in Week 3. With
this game in Dallas and the Cowboys wanting to establish the run,
they will feed Zeke, who should be well rested after not playing
Week 17. The Seahawks have been dreadful against pass catching
running backs, allowing the third most fantasy points to RBs through
the air. With every game potentially a team’s last, there
is no such thing as too much volume. Zeke may touch the ball 30
times if he needs to. He’s the top running back in the first
round slate.
Chargers @ Ravens
- (Caron) Line: BAL -3.0 Total: 42.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: While he finished the season as a fantasy
QB1 yet again, there has to be serious concern about Philip Rivers
heading into this opening round playoff game against the Ravens.
The Chargers and Ravens matched up just two weeks ago when Rivers
had his worst game of the season as he was held without a touchdown
for the only time during the 2018 regular season and he added
two interceptions while throwing for just 181 yards. The Ravens
defense dominated the Chargers’ offense, holding them to
just 10 points on the day. The only player in the Los Angeles
passing game who did anything of note was wide receiver Keenan
Allen who caught five passes for 58 yards - nothing special, but
at least a fantasy performance that wasn’t completely useless
like the ones turned in by Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, Travis
Benjamin, Antonio Gates and Virgil Green, who were all held to
fewer than 25 yards receiving. While we have to expect that the
Chargers will have studied the film heavily and have some new
looks for the Ravens, there’s still a lot to worry about
for this matchup, so it’s probably best to avoid everyone
other than Allen whose volume is strong enough to be productive
in most matchups.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers passing game was humiliated
in Week 16 against the Ravens, but their running game wasn’t
much better. Melvin Gordon saved his fantasy day by getting into
the end zone for Los Angeles’ only touchdown of the day,
but otherwise had a concerning fantasy performance, rushing for
just 41 yards on 12 carries while adding three catches for 13
yards. One other thing to note from the previous Chargers-Ravens
game is that Austin Ekeler missed that game which led to additional
playing time for Justin Jackson, who led the team with seven receptions
for 47 yards despite getting just one carry in the game. Jackson
could be a sneaky Flex play if Ekeler sits, so keep an eye on
that situation. Either way, it’ll be Melvin Gordon leading
the way in the Chargers backfield and his volume and skill makes
him a RB1 despite his struggles against the Ravens a couple of
weeks ago.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The passing game in Baltimore continues
to be practically nonexistent since Lamar Jackson took over behind
center, but Jackson himself remains one of the most consistent
mid-to-low-level QB1s in fantasy as he continues to deliver big
time production as a runner while still making occasional plays
in the passing game. Jackson has thrown for between 125 to 204
yards in all seven of his starts, throwing a total of just five
touchdowns during that span, but he’s averaging nearly 80
yards rushing per game and he’s added four rushing touchdowns.
The rushing ability of Jackson gives him a nice floor and while
he doesn’t have a huge ceiling as a passer, we saw in Week
17 against the Browns that he can get into end zone as a runner
multiple times per game and that does make him a threat to have
a huge game at any time.
Unfortunately, his receivers continue to be practically useless.
The only pass catchers in Baltimore who should be given serious
consideration for fantasy are wide receiver Willie Snead and tight
end Mark Andrews. Snead is the only Baltimore wide receiver who
has caught more than three passes in a game since Jackson took
over - and he’s done it three times, with five catches in
each of those three games. That’s still not much so don’t
be too excited about him, but you could do worse in DFS formats
if you’re looking for a low-priced option. For Andrews,
he’s been the Ravens’ leading receiver in yardage
since Jackson stepped in with over 300 yards receiving in the
seven games with Jackson at QB. Like Snead, he’s not a high-end
option, but he’s a decent fill-in player if you’re
looking for a cheap option in DFS. He did catch a touchdown against
this Chargers defense in Week 16.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: The running game in Baltimore continues
to be the base of the offense as Lamar Jackson’s presence
on the field opens up additional running lanes for his backs that
would otherwise not likely be there with a more traditional quarterback
like Joe Flacco. The Ravens have essentially gone to a two-back
system down the stretch, leaning most heavily on Gus Edwards who
has taken at least 12 carries in all seven games since the Ravens’
bye week. Edwards has not been held to fewer than 75 rushing yards
in any game while he’s gone over 100 yards in three separate
contests. He nearly cracked 100 on the ground against the Chargers
when these teams played in Week 16, but he was also able to secure
his only reception since Week 8, a 13-yard catch which brought
him to 105 total yards against Los Angeles in that contest.
The other back Baltimore has been utilizing is veteran Kenneth
Dixon, who has primarily functioned as a change-of-pace back for
the Ravens, rushing the ball between eight to 12 times in each
of the final five regular season games for Baltimore. Dixon ran
the ball 12 times in Week 17’s game against the Browns for
117 yards, outscoring Edwards for the second time in the past
five weeks. Dixon is a much more refined pass catcher than Edwards,
so there’s some upside there, but it’s worth noting
that the Ravens offense hasn’t passed the ball much to backs
with Jackson behind center, likely due to the play calling being
more focused on getting the ball to the backs quickly rather than
on delayed screen passes. Still, Dixon is a usable fantasy asset
as a Flex this week while Edwards is an RB2 in PPR formats and
possibly even a borderline RB1 in standard scoring leagues.
Eagles @ Bears
- (Swanson) Line: CHI -6.5 Total: 41.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia
Eagles snuck into the playoffs after the Vikings were unable to
beat the Bears at home last week to secure that final NFC Wild
Card slot. The Eagles took care of their business with a decisive
win over the Redskins and benefitted from the Bears taking it
to the Vikings last week at US Bank Stadium. Now, Nick Foles and
the defending champs will need to defeat the vaunted Chicago defense
to survive and advance.
This year’s version of the Eagles offense is nowhere near
as explosive as the No.14 ranked offense that hoisted the Lombardi
trophy last February. While the Eagles pass offense is still potent
and enters that playoffs ranked seventh in total yards, the ground
game that made Philadelphia so difficult to defend last season
ranks 28th in total yards after an injury-filled 2018 campaign.
The health of Foles will be a significant factor with regards
to the effectiveness of the Eagles offense and their ability to
upset the Bears at Soldier Field. After tying Philip Rivers for
the NFL record of 25 connective completions in a game, Foles suffered
what the team is calling a chest injury and was not able to return
to the field late against the Redskins. Head coach Doug Pederson
told reporters this week that Foles will be ready to go against
Chicago, but it remains to be seen how the injury will affect
Foles and his ability to throw the ball.
A matchup to watch in this game will be the ability of the front
four of the Bears defense to get pressure on Foles and disrupt
the passing game. The Bears rank in the lower half of the league
in blitzing, with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio using pressure
from the defensive line of Leonard Floyd, Akiem Hicks, and Khalil
Mack to get pressure without leaving the secondary vulnerable.
Philadelphia ranks 16th in sacks allowed at 2.5 per game, with
stud tackles Jason Peters and Lane Johnson outside and pro bowl
center Jason Kelce working against Hicks in the middle of the
line. The battle between these elite pass rushers and offensive
linemen will be where the game is won and lost this weekend.
The health of stud safety Eddie Jackson is something to watch
as well, as the pro bowl defensive back missed last week’s
game with an ankle injury sustained two weeks ago while picking
off a pass by Aaron Rodgers. The second-year safety from the University
of Alabama filled the stat sheet this season with six interceptions
and three defensive touchdowns. He is currently listed as questionable,
and his status is unclear right now.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: A big reason why the Eagles struggled
the move the ball this season as compared to 2017 was the lack
of production at the running back position. An early season-ending
ACL injury to Jay Ajayi took away the big back from Pederson’s
stable of backs, while Corey Clement, one of the heroes of the
Super Bowl, missed the final eight weeks of the season with a
hamstring and was not overly effective before being placed on
IR.
Rookie Josh Adams has flashed some brilliance at times and Darren
Sproles’ return late in the season from the IR-return list
gave Pederson’s team a shot in the arm. The two players,
along with Wendell Smallwood, will be tasked with running the
ball against a Bears defense that ranked first in the league in
fewest rushing yards allowed per game (80).
Look for Sproles and Smallwood to find more success that Adams
based on their ability in the receiving game. Running the ball
up the middle against Hicks and nose tackle Eddie Goldman has
proven to be an exercise in futility, while the linebacking corps
led by Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith is plenty fast to play
sideline to sideline, limiting outside zone runs. The Eagles will
use Sproles and Smallwood in the passing game on screens to help
mitigate the pass rush by Mack and Floyd.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky made excellent progress
in his second NFL season, with 3223 passing yards and 24 passing
touchdowns to finish as the No.11 fantasy quarterback. The addition
of Matt Nagy as head coach proved to be exactly what Trubisky
needed to set career marks across the board, including passing
yards, touchdowns, completions, and rushing yards. Perhaps the
most impressive stat and the one that shows the maturity of Trubisky
as a passer is his 66% completion percentage - a full 7% jump
from a season ago.
In addition to bringing in an offensive-minded head coach who
succeeded in getting the most out of the skill set of Trubisky,
the Chicago front office came through with a collection of skill
position players to surround Trubisky with enough talent to succeed.
Now it is up to Trubisky to prove that the regular season was
not a fluke and he is ready to lead the Bears to their first playoff
win since 2010.
Like the Bears, the strength of the Eagles defense is up front
with the defensive line of Fletcher Cox, Haloti Ngata, Michael
Bennett, and Brandon Graham. This game boasts arguably the two
best defensive lines in the National Football League, with the
Eagles garnering a slight advantage over their opponent based
on their depth.
The Bears received a shot in the arm of their offensive line
with the return of guard Kyle Long from injured reserve. Long
logged 29 snaps last week against the Vikings and should be a
full go this week against the Eagles.
Starting wide receivers Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller are
banged up and are questionable for the game. Robinson missed last
week with a rib injury, while Miller left the game after sustaining
yet another shouldering injury. The former appears to be more
of a lock to play, while the latter could be a game-time decision.
From a defensive standpoint, it is a surprise that the Eagles
managed to make the playoffs after sustaining so many key injuries
in their secondary. Philadelphia lost Jalen Mills, Ronald Darby,
and Rodney McLeod to various injuries, and will line up Rasul
Douglas, Sidney Jones, and rookie Avonte Maddox against Chicago.
Only the Chiefs allowed more passing yards this season than the
Eagles, and Philadelphia allowed the 9th-most points to opposing
quarterbacks. This is where the Bears need to focus their attack,
and Mitchell Trubisky will need to find success moving the ball
against the Eagles in the air.
A wildcard in this game is rookie Javon Wims, a 6’4”
wideout from Georgia who caught four passes for 32 yards last
week against the Vikings. If Robinson is limited and Miller is
unable to go, look for Wims to be used more in the passing game,
especially in the red zone and with contested catches against
the smaller Eagles secondary.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Despite the frustrations of Jordan Howard
owners, the Bears were actually very strong running the ball this
season, finishing the year as the 8th-ranked unit in fantasy points
scored at the position. Howard failed to reach 1000 rushing yards
for the first time in his career, but he did post nine rushing
touchdowns, including four in his final three games.
Tarik Cohen finished 2018 with 10.3 fantasy points per game as
the No.26 ranked running back, just ahead of fellow backfield
mate Howard. Cohen thrived in Nagy’s offense as both a running
back and receiver, with 71 receptions for 725 yards and five receiving
touchdowns. Only Christian McCaffrey and James White managed to
score more receiving TDs than Cohen this season.
The return of guard Kyle Long will be a boost for the running
game and Jordan Howard, as Long is one of the better run-blocking
interior offensive linemen in the league.
A matchup to watch will be Cohen’s usage in the passing
game. The Eagles were stout against the run this year, allowing
the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. But only
the Falcons allowed more receptions to running backs that the
Eagles, and Nagy and the Bears coaching staff will undoubtedly
look to exploit that weakness.