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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
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NFC Breakdowns Update
Preseason Schedule Analysis
8/30/11

AFC | NFC
NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | STL | SF | SEA

With many drafters either in the middle of drafting their teams or about to start, some of my loyal readers asked for updated projections they could use to either complement their use of the Cheatsheet Compiler/Draft Buddy or maybe just to impress their friends. Whatever the reason, many of the projections below have changed for my initial release (AFC and NFC) earlier this month. So, in an effort to help your draft-day experience a successful one, let’s get right into the updated projections.

Note: My final Big Board will hit the site on Thursday.

If you have any questions regarding the color-coding below, please refer to my last Big Board. Otherwise, the key to the stats is below, in case they are not self-explanatory:

PYd – Passing Yards
PTD – Passing touchdowns
RuYd – Rushing Yards
RuTD - Passing touchdowns
ReYd – Receiving yards
ReTD - Receiving touchdowns
Rec - Receptions

NFC EAST

 Dallas Cowboys
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Tony Romo 31 4395 29 14 110 1
RB Felix Jones 24 960 6 555 2 57
RB Tashard Choice 26 165 3 45 0 7
RB DeMarco Murray 23 250 2 175 0 21
WR Miles Austin 27 1190 9 84
WR Dez Bryant 22 995 7 73
WR Kevin Ogletree 24 325 1 29
WR Dwayne Harris 23 100 0 10
TE Jason Witten 29 905 8 88
TE M. Bennett 24 105 2 11

Thoughts: One of the most impressive players I have seen this preseason is Jones, who appears to have added a lot of muscle to his frame. Long considered a speedy complementary back, Jones has transformed himself into an every-down back and the Cowboys are viewing him as one as well, which is the most important thing. Because Austin has sat out the preseason, we haven’t been able to get any hint on how much of an effect Bryant will have on Austin’s final numbers. Until further notice, Romo appears to trust Witten the most, followed by Austin and then Bryant. Expect Bryant to be on the receiving end of a lot of short passes until Romo gets fully comfortable with him, with the idea being that Bryant’s YAC ability will serve as an extension of the running game.

New York Giants
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Eli Manning 30 3945 26 17 55 0
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 25 1045 6 335 1 41
RB Brandon Jacobs 29 800 9 55 0 9
RB Danny Ware 26 90 0 15 0 3
WR Hakeem Nicks 23 1300 12 91
WR M. Manningham 25 1165 9 70
WR Victor Cruz 26 450 2 36
WR Ramses Barden 25 95 0 9
WR Jerrel Jernigan 22 160 0 15
TE Travis Beckum 24 370 2 33

Thoughts: It’s unclear whether or not Manning is treating this preseason like most fans do, but he is hitting less than 50% of his passes and has yet to throw for a score in 55 attempts. Despite his penchant for turning the ball over, Manning has become a low-end QB1 in recent years thanks to consecutive 4,000-yard, 27+ TD pass seasons and his durability (103 straight regular-season starts). Still, Manning is a divisive player in fantasy because for all his good games, he never appears all that far away from a bad one either. Be that as it may, my opinion on Manningham’s outlook this fall has skyrocketed recently. With Kevin Boss and Steve Smith gone and Manningham likely to move in the slot when the team goes three-wide, the chances he has a huge season are pretty good. Consider him a top-notch WR2 in 12-team leagues with the potential to out-produce Nicks this season.

Philadelphia Eagles
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Michael Vick 31 3440 24 11 565 4
QB Vince Young 28 580 4 3 80 1
RB LeSean McCoy 23 1060 7 595 3 67
RB Ronnie Brown 30 255 5 125 0 16
WR DeSean Jackson 24 1015 8 54
WR Jeremy Maclin 23 940 7 74
WR Jason Avant 28 485 3 40
WR Riley Cooper 23 185 1 18
TE Brent Celek 26 670 5 58

Thoughts: Anyone that has caught a glimpse of the Eagles this preseason has to be a bit concerned with the less-than-stellar protection Vick is getting from his offensive line. Even with two rookie starters (C Jason Kelce, G Danny Watkins), it’s an issue that figures to get ironed with respected OL coach Howard Mudd. Still, it is troubling that HC Andy Reid – a former OL coach himself – seems to have this problem with his line every year, although Vick’s tendency to extend plays does increase the number of pressures and sacks the Eagles allow. The biggest change is to Maclin, who will probably start the season a bit slow after dealing with his mysterious illness over the summer. Since he is practicing now, it can be assumed that he will contribute sooner than later, however. I cannot seem to bring myself to add Steve Smith to the projections yet. One would assume he would overtake Avant, but Avant is one of the better slot options in the league himself and a trusted receiver in this offense. Cooper is the one big WR Philly has, so his role as a potential red-zone option appears safe as well.

Washington Redskins
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB John Beck 30 2830 16 12 80 1
QB Rex Grossman 31 745 4 3 10 0
RB Ryan Torain 25 190 1 45 0 6
RB Tim Hightower 25 935 7 400 1 49
RB Roy Helu 22 495 4 145 0 18
WR Santana Moss 32 950 5 79
WR Jabar Gaffney 30 545 0 47
WR L. Hankerson 23 555 2 44
WR A. Armstrong 28 280 1 18
TE Chris Cooley 29 580 3 54
TE Fred Davis 25 475 6 36

Thoughts: Make fun of the preseason all you want, but the Redskins have been quite impressive so far. Beck and Grossman have both looked good enough to make HC Mike Shanahan appear prophetic for staking his reputation on his QBs. Davis is enjoying a fine training camp and preseason as well, helping ease the potential loss that a completely healthy Cooley would have on this offense. But the most impressive player so far has been Hightower, who may be the first RB with a bit of staying power under Shanahan in some time. He doesn’t have the explosiveness of Helu, but he has been sound in just about every other facet of the game so far and avoided his biggest bugaboo to this point – fumbles. At this point, that might be the only thing that keeps Hightower from keeping a stranglehold on this job all season long.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Jay Cutler 28 3435 19 16 195 1
RB Matt Forte 25 1160 5 540 3 60
RB Marion Barber 31 350 5 80 0 14
WR Roy Williams 29 740 4 58
WR Devin Hester 28 610 2 41
WR Earl Bennett 24 660 3 57
WR Johnny Knox 24 650 5 38
TE Kellen Davis 25 155 2 17

Thoughts: On my final Big Board, Forte is the first player I have listed outside the 14 “studs” in PPR. His durability and contributions to the passing game are the primary reasons for that, but the presence of Barber will likely drive his owners crazy when it comes to touches at the goal line. Since Williams decided to show up to camp out of shape – and disappoint his biggest fan (OC Mike Martz) in the process – I have dropped him significantly from my initial projections. Why the Bears have decided to go this far into the preseason with their two best WRs third and fourth on the depth chart is beyond me.

Detroit Lions
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Matthew Stafford 23 3770 27 15 135 0
QB Shaun Hill 31 565 4 3 35 0
RB Jahvid Best 22 1090 7 565 2 57
RB Jerome Harrison 28 355 2 140 0 20
RB Maurice Morris 21 85 2 35 0 7
WR Calvin Johnson 25 1360 13 86
WR Nate Burleson 30 745 6 65
WR Titus Young 21 490 2 29
WR Derrick Williams 25 75 0 9
TE B. Pettigrew 26 625 5 57
TE Tony Scheffler 28 300 2 24

Thoughts: I have made significant changes to my team projections here, but not because of what I have seen in the preseason. Instead, I realized that Best probably isn’t going to do exceed 4.5 YPC or receive 20 carries in all that many games this season. However, OC Scott Linehan is fond of using his RBs heavily in the passing game – and does a particularly good job at getting Best out in space – so I believe I may actually have hit the floor (and not the ceiling) for his potential in that regard. At TE, I stole a significant of Scheffler’s catches and gave most of them to Pettigrew, whose abilities as an all-around TE help keep him on the field on just about every down.

Green Bay Packers
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Aaron Rodgers 27 4355 32 12 330 4
RB Ryan Grant 28 805 6 125 0 17
RB James Starks 25 640 6 105 0 15
RB Alex Green 23 135 0 230 1 33
WR Greg Jennings 27 1130 9 73
WR Donald Driver 36 555 3 44
WR James Jones 27 625 5 43
WR Jordy Nelson 26 650 5 52
TE Jermichael Finley 24 935 9 73

Thoughts: Although I have made a few minor changes here, the most notable is my belief that Starks will overtake Grant at some point this season. HC Mike McCarthy has never been a RBBC coach, so if Grant’s lack of burst continues into the regular season – and there’s no reason to think it won’t – then Starks can be expected to carry the load sooner than later. (Think Cadillac Williams-LeGarrette Blount from last year.) Starks has shown himself to be a capable receiver in the preseason and is running with all the toughness one would expect out of a 6-2, 218-pound RB looking to stay healthy for the first time in years.

Minnesota Vikings
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Donovan McNabb 34 3275 19 12 120 0
QB Christian Ponder 23 445 1 3 30 0
RB Adrian Peterson 26 1300 13 395 1 45
RB Toby Gerhart 24 235 2 160 0 26
WR Percy Harvin 23 120 1 1040 7 76
WR Bernard Berrian 30 575 4 38
WR D. Aromashodu 27 305 1 18
WR Greg Camarillo 29 450 1 41
TE V. Shiancoe 31 400 4 40
TE Kyle Rudolph 21 370 2 32

Thoughts: I’ve played around with Peterson’s final numbers a lot since my initial projections, but I believe I have finally settled on a good range for him now. With OC Bill Musgrave adding more plays to get the RB the ball in the passing game, Peterson could push 50+ receptions, although a final determination on whether he, Gerhart or Lorenzo Booker will get the most passing-game work hasn’t been made public yet. Otherwise, Berrian gets a nice bump as McNabb has not only shown faith in him so far, but the team also feels as if they need him to be the field-stretching element to make this offense more explosive. He’s worth a look for owners rounding out their WR corps late in the draft.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Matt Ryan 26 3910 31 10 95 0
RB Michael Turner 29 1020 10 95 0 12
RB Jason Snelling 27 395 3 275 1 40
WR Roddy White 29 1360 11 97
WR Julio Jones 22 925 9 60
WR Harry Douglas 26 585 5 44
WR Kerry Meier 24 60 0 6
TE Tony Gonzalez 35 610 5 60

Thoughts: My opinion of Ryan has spiked over the last few weeks (and that was before he posted 42 first-half passing attempts in the team’s third preseason game), but it isn’t for the reasons you might think. A healthy Douglas makes this offense almost unstoppable most weeks as defenses will already be stretched to defend White, Jones and Gonzalez as it is. While Turner may not turn in his usual gaudy rushing numbers, I believe it will have less to do with an age-related decline and more to do with the level of production that will be coming out of the passing game.

Carolina Panthers
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Cam Newton 22 3015 14 16 280 3
RB DeAngelo Williams 28 1085 6 270 1 29
RB Jonathan Stewart 24 650 4 65 0 9
RB Mike Goodson 24 100 0 275 0 35
WR Steve Smith 32 860 5 60
WR Legedu Naanee 27 210 1 17
WR Brandon LaFell 24 460 2 37
WR Armanti Edwards 23 125 0 12
TE Greg Olsen 26 640 5 59
TE Jeremy Shockey 31 110 0 14

Thoughts: Jimmy Clausen basically gift-wrapped the starting job for Newton, who hasn’t exactly torn up the preseason himself. Because he is a thick-built QB like Ben Roethlisberger, Newton may be able to last the season physically even though he will likely take some shots when he tries to make things happen outside the pocket. I understand 3,000+ yards is a high number for Newton, but he only needs 200 yards/game to hit that mark over 15 games. I have come way down on Stewart, but that is only because it is impossible to predict if/when Williams will get hurt. Stewart has decent stand-alone value, but with Williams and Newton likely to steal the few scoring chances the Panthers will get each game, he might need a D-Will injury to be fantasy-relevant..

New Orleans Saints
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Drew Brees 32 4490 32 11 10 0
RB Mark Ingram 21 1055 9 140 0 20
RB Pierre Thomas 26 580 4 190 2 26
RB Darren Sproles 28 350 2 565 3 62
WR Marques Colston 28 745 6 54
WR Robert Meachem 26 845 6 54
WR Lance Moore 28 680 4 62
WR D. Henderson 29 480 3 28
TE Jimmy Graham 24 845 8 65

Thoughts: While Ingram’s totals have slipped a bit, it is only because I was admittedly low on Thomas’ initial projections (and still might be if he puts together a full season). Ingram’s ceiling is probably 12-13 TDs, but projecting that high total for a part-time back with goal-line duties – even in this explosive offense – is a bit more than I want to do at this point. I believe Sproles is greatly undervalued – especially in PPR leagues – in the 10th round or later as a more durable player in the Reggie Bush role. With Colston’s continued knee problems, Moore and Graham have been two of the hotter topics in Saints’ camp. Graham’s role appears pretty solid – a high-upside TE1 candidate who may take over as Brees’ top red-zone target if Colston is unable to stay healthy. Moore is a bit different, because his likely final reception numbers this season figure to come as a result of Colston’s health and Sproles’ ability to fill Bush’s former role. His preseason groin injury is a bit of a concern, so owners should draft him no higher than a WR4.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Josh Freeman 23 3595 21 11 310 2
RB LeGarrette Blount 24 1250 7 65 0 11
RB Earnest Graham 31 240 2 180 0 32
WR Mike Williams 24 1040 9 75
WR Arrelious Benn 22 675 3 51
WR S. Stroughter 25 405 1 34
WR Dezmon Briscoe 22 500 3 33
TE Kellen Winslow 28 730 5 61

Thoughts: Tampa Bay has remained relatively unchanged since my initial projections.

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Kevin Kolb 27 3660 23 15 180 2
RB Chris Wells 23 1035 8 110 0 17
RB L. Stephens-Howling 24 445 1 280 1 35
RB Alfonso Smith 24 185 1 110 0 12
WR Larry Fitzgerald 28 1360 11 100
WR Andre Roberts 23 555 3 37
WR Early Doucet 25 310 1 29
WR Demarco Sampson 25 395 2 31
TE Todd Heap 31 540 5 45

Thoughts: The loss of Ryan Williams greatly changed the outlook of this offense as a whole. As a whole, fantasy owners have long memories when players “burn” them, but Wells is looking more like the RB we saw at Ohio State this preseason. He isn’t going to impress the masses with his huge weekly fantasy totals or contributions in the passing game in all likelihood, but my projections for him are definitely attainable with no realistic competition for carries. Stephens-Howling appears to be the next in line and warrants a roster spot in deeper PPR leagues. I like what I have seen from Roberts, but there is a strong belief that he will be part of a committee attack opposite Fitzgerald.

St. Louis Rams
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Sam Bradford 23 3640 22 12 65 0
RB Steven Jackson 28 1120 7 350 0 48
RB Cadillac Williams 29 290 1 170 0 26
WR Danny Amendola 25 775 4 89
WR Brandon Gibson 24 625 3 48
WR Mike Sims-Walker 26 575 4 45
WR G. Salas / A. Pettis 23 325 1 27
WR Danario Alexander 23 250 1 17
TE Lance Kendricks 23 700 6 54
TE M. Hoomanawanui 23 220 3 21

Thoughts: Last year, Bradford scored seven times (six passing, one rushing) from the 3-yard line or closer. If Jackson can steal half of those this year and return to a 4.0 YPC on 300 carries with his customary 40+ receptions, I think he makes a strong case for a very good RB2, if not a low-end RB1 in all leagues. Now seen as a mid-level RB2 in fantasy, he has a shot to exceed expectations for the first time in years. The biggest mover here is Kendricks, who has shot up my most recent Big Board and stands to benefit the most from OC Josh McDaniels’ offense, especially since he is far and away the second-most dependable receiver in this passing attack already.

San Francisco 49ers
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Alex Smith 27 2260 12 12 85 0
QB Colin Kaepernick 23 1170 5 8 180 2
RB Frank Gore 28 1000 5 435 2 54
RB Kendall Hunter 22 280 1 165 1 18
RB Anthony Dixon 23 135 3 35 0 6
WR Michael Crabtree 23 820 4 63
WR Braylon Edwards 28 895 5 52
WR Josh Morgan 26 240 0 22
WR Ted Ginn Jr. 26 180 1 12
TE Vernon Davis 27 940 7 76
TE Delanie Walker 28 230 2 24

Thoughts: I made minor changes to most of the RBs and WRs, so I’ll simply say that Gore’s contract issue could make this season a rough one for his owners (and that’s not even considering he is one of the bigger injury risks around at his position). Hunter needs to be on the radar for owners in small or deep leagues, because it figures to be a matter of when, not if, he’ll see the field. He isn’t likely to be a feature-back anytime soon, but he’ll be usable in fantasy in the event Gore gets hurt. The new offense is TE-friendly, so Davis’ only concern is the same as it has been since he became a strong fantasy option – the accuracy of his QB. Expect him to remain the team’s top receiver.

Seattle Seahawks
Pos Player Age PYd PTD INT RuYd RuTD ReYd ReTD Re 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
QB Tarvaris Jackson 28 1700 9 11 205 1
QB C. Whitehurst 29 1550 5 6 45 1
RB Marshawn Lynch 25 755 5 205 0 28
RB Justin Forsett 25 425 2 285 0 34
RB Leon Washington 29 310 2 145 0 17
WR Sidney Rice 25 695 4 49
WR Mike Williams 27 645 3 60
WR Golden Tate 23 325 1 29
WR Ben Obomanu 27 200 1 14
TE Zach Miller 25 600 5 56
TE John Carlson 27 140 0 17

Thoughts: So far this preseason, this passing game has struggled just about as much as I expected it to before the preseason started. Surprisingly, Jackson hasn’t been the main cause of the struggles since he has been more accurate than expected when given the chance to set his feet in the pocket. The biggest problem has been the amount of pressure his rebuilt offensive line is allowing. As long as this remains the case, everyone suffers. As a result, players like Rice, Williams and Miller are all late-round selections at best. On the bright side, Washington is slated to eat into the RB timeshare more this season, so he has some low-end appeal in deep PPR leagues. Expect the running game to be just about as frustrating as the passing game from a fantasy perspective.

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow him on Twitter.