Change is inevitable. As much as fantasy
owners hate this little bit of wisdom, it takes only a missed tackle
or blown assignment in some cases to drastically alter a player’s
value. Over the long term, however, fantasy value is usually established
by consistency and, in the case of the elite players, consistent
greatness.
The reason I decided to briefly discuss change just a few days after
my first Big Board is because
you will see a great deal of it below. In just one week, my opinion
on a number of players has changed, almost to the point where one
might question how it is possible that some players’ values
could be so volatile. And there is more to come. Sometimes, value
changes based on a tidbit of new information or another review of
the schedule. This year, thanks to the wonderful creation known
as DVR, I have been able to watch every pretty much each snap in
which a significant fantasy player was involved. The biggest challenge,
however, will be this week as we approach the third game of the
preseason – the now-famous “dress rehearsal” week
– so expect more fluctuation next week.
As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value"
in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but
for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on
the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present
my "Big Board" in an attempt to earn both the respect
and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2011.
Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each
of my readers about a couple of key points:
1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other
draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies
heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point
totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts"
get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all
my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as
the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's
about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances
along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly
decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither
should you.
2) I will push a player down my board if
feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide
below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals
or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player
down my board – despite a higher average or overall point
total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses
like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end
more fantasy championship dreams than they help.
***In an attempt to add another level of accuracy to my overall
rankings this year, I have decided to quantify value on my Big Board.
In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP
(Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league
with a flex spot, which allows me to essentially compare apples
and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation
from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber
player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is
based on the 36th player at the position. The
underlying assumption I took with using the 36th player at RB as
my basis was that owners would prefer RBs as opposed to WRs or TEs
at their flex spot. One last note to mention regarding the
values – numbers that are bolded and italicized reflect positive
values while the regular-print numbers are essentially negative.
(For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the
right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the
left of the bell curve.)
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t
expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade
that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them
to perform like an average player at his position.
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production from them in this matchup.
Grey – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player
with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take
advantage. Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** above
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players:
Top 25: At this point, fantasy
owners would be wise to treat Chris Johnson as an injured player.
Not only is it looking he may hold out into the season (with the
team and player not even discussing parameters of a deal), but
the chances of him pulling a hamstring or suffering a multi-week
injury goes up each week he doesn’t practice – even
for a conditioning freak like Johnson. And let’s not forget
that he has a new offense to learn at some point as well, with
the team transitioning from former OC Mike Heimerdinger to current
OC Chris Palmer this offseason. The new offense promises to get
CJ out in space more often, but it’s only good for him if
he knows what he’s doing and is in good enough shape to
do it.
Each year, I like to break down the draft by rounds. In other
words, I set round-by-round benchmarks for a player to hit in
order to be included in that round. For example, a first-round
RB needs to average 20 FPts/G in PPR to be designated a first-round
pick. As a result, some years will have only 6-8 players worthy
of a first-round pick while others may have 12-14. I mention this
practice because I believe a strong case could be made for 14
first-rounders in a 12-team league this year, but after that,
there are very few players who merit second-round grades (due
to injury, production, etc.). After Hakeem Nicks at #14, many
of the upper-tier players that follow have serious question marks,
which may actually make a great case for owners to trade down
in their draft – if their league allows them to swap picks
pre-draft – and pick up two of the top 14 players as opposed
to one elite player and a relative question mark.
Two years ago, I declared Ronnie Brown a RB1 before the season
and he was prior to his midseason injury. Last year, Arian Foster
was my 10th-ranked RB and #18 overall player when most considered
him a low-end RB2 and fourth-round pick at best. This year, my
early favorite is Jahvid Best, who I actually had ranked as my
11th-best RB and #22 overall player last year. The obvious question
has to be: how can I be so high on a player with such a poor record
for durability? Let’s quickly review his recent injury history.
In his final season at Cal, Best suffered a concussion when he
hurdled over a defender into the end zone and was accidentally
pushed by a second Oregon State defender in mid-air, causing him
to land on the back of his head with his helmet coming off before
he hit the ground. Last season, he suffered turf toe injuries
to both feet – a phenomenon that I can’t remember
happening to anyone else in recent memory. Just this past weekend,
a Cleveland defender delivered a non-penalized helmet-to-helmet
hit to Best on a swing pass along the sideline on the first play
of the game. I don’t know about the rest of you, but none
of those occurrences appear all that likely to happen again, especially
the first two. Maybe he is “injury-prone”, but I have
incredible respect for Best now. For a player whose game is built
on speed and elusiveness, how high is his ceiling after playing
13 games in his rookie season with an injury that sapped both
traits and still finishing as a top 20 RB in fantasy points/game?
We certainly saw what he could do when healthy. In the Lions’
offense, he is unlikely to ever see more than seven in the box
and since he is such a big part of the passing game, there isn’t
a game situation in which he will need to leave the field.
26-50: After watching Felix Jones
on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers, I came away very
impressed. Known primarily as a speedy, breakaway complement to
Marion Barber’s physical style in his first three years
as a Cowboy, Jones showed impressive power to go along with his
speed and elusiveness. Much as is the case with just about every
RB I have listed in the top 20 at the position – starting
with McFadden – durability is a concern. If he can show
the same kind of durability that allowed him to play 15 games
last season, he should be a good bet for 17-18 touches/game and
roughly 50 receptions.
The other player I’ll highlight in this part of the Big
Board is Brandon Lloyd. Every year, there are breakout receivers
who soar into the second and third round the following season
after setting the fantasy world on fire the year before while
there are others who tend to get punished in drafts because of
a coaching or quarterback change or just a wide-held belief their
success was a fluke. Lloyd attributed his 2010 season to the fact
that former HC Josh McDaniels believed in him since the time he
was a college prospect and that Kyle Orton “chose”
to throw him the ball. Initially, Lloyd appeared to be a bust
candidate for this season since Tim Tebow was going to start and
Orton was going to get traded. Throw in the run-loving HC John
Fox and it just added fuel to the fire that Lloyd would disappoint.
However, I think the fantasy community has been slow to react
to the fact Orton has locked up the job, Denver will be a better
team this year and Brady Quinn would probably run the team right
now if Orton got hurt - and Quinn appears much more poised so
far. Let’s not forget that Steve Smith (and Muhsin Muhammad)
had some huge years for Fox’s conservative teams, so writing
off this passing game would be a mistake.
51-100: There are some RB situations
that deserve a mention here in this area. Let’s start with
Buffalo’s backfield, where C.J. Spiller has shown virtually
nothing outside of last preseason. However, he has reportedly
somehow narrowed the gap that existed between his place on the
depth chart and Fred Jackson’s. This has all the makings
of a situation where coach and front office want “their
guy” to win the job as opposed to just playing the more
productive player. Since Buffalo is already a poor bet to field
a rushing juggernaut anytime soon, owners would be advised to
view both players as flex options at best.
Staying in the AFC East, Miami also appears to be suffering from
confusion with its backfield. Reggie Bush is finally evolving
into a more complete back, but the Dolphins are only fooling themselves
if they want to make him anything more than a 15-touch/game player.
Bush has played 10 games or less due to injury in two of his last
three seasons as a part-time player, so unless the Dolphins feel
the move from the Superdome’s synthetic turf to Sun Life
Stadium’s natural grass field will allow his knees to hold
up better, they are only kidding themselves. Daniel Thomas is
still the player to own in this backfield, but it may take a bit
of time for Miami to realize Bush is an electrifying complementary
player, not a lead back.
Fantasy owners rarely ever like a committee backfield, but if
there is one I can embrace right now, it might be in San Diego.
There’s little question that Ryan Mathews has more talent
than Mike Tolbert, but last year’s preseason fantasy darling
already carries some risk in the durability department and will
be replaced at the goal line by Tolbert. Further consider that
someone has to replace the 59 catches that left when Darren Sproles
signed with New Orleans and there is reason to believe Tolbert
is the player to own here. Because he is more durable and better
in pass protection, one has to think that it will be Tolbert seeing
more of those swing passes and screens than Mathews. At worst,
these two RBs should be going pretty close to each other, but
Tolbert is often available at least 2-3 rounds after Mathews.
101-175: Since I didn’t discuss
the rise of Chris “Beanie” Wells above, I’ll
discuss it while focusing on a runner PPR owners need to start
considering – LaRod Stephens-Howling. I was reasonably certain
that rookie Ryan Williams was going to steal the feature-back
job from Wells before the end of the season, but a torn patella
tendon on his first carry of the second preseason game ended any
chance of that happening this year and maybe beyond. At 5-7 and
185 pounds, “Hyphen” won’t threaten Wells’
job security, but he’s a sure bet to work himself into the
passing game role that was slated to go to Williams before long.
The team is likely to add another RB before the start of the season,
but have been impressed with 24-year-old Alfonso Smith so far.
After watching him perform well against the Packers’ reserves,
he certainly deserves a shot to stick on the roster, if not take
a handful of carries from Wells each game. With Wells’ own
durability concerns, fantasy owners may want to keep both Stephens-Howling
and Smith on their radar.
In a year where there appears to be more TEs than owners in 12-team
leagues need, allow me to introduce one more – the Rams’
Lance Kendricks. I know I have mentioned him before, but it wouldn’t
surprise me if he finished just outside the top 10. Slotted to
play the Aaron Hernandez role in OC Josh McDaniels’ offense,
Kendricks will benefit in fantasy from the lack of a Rob Gronkowski-like
presence or a consistent second receiver opposite Danny Amendola.
I don’t like hyping rookie TEs for a number of reasons,
but like Jermaine Gresham last season, talent and opportunity
can sometimes overcome inexperience. Just like with Gresham, inconsistency
is to be expected, but the upside for 50 catches, 500+ yards and
5-6 TDs is there already this year. I believe I have him conservatively
ranked as the 20th-best TE.
Top 25: As long as his future owners
are willing to spend a ninth- or tenth-round pick on Michael
Bush, I don’t see any reason why owners should shy away from
Darren
McFadden. Especially in light of Chris
Johnson’s holdout and the value that someone like LeSean
McCoy loses in non-PPR leagues, owning D-Mac and his injury
history isn’t the worst consolation prize for an owner selecting
at the back end of the first round. With his role as the Raiders’
feature back cemented, McFadden should do a pretty good job at showing
off his Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes-like talent. After all,
he was the sixth-best RB in fantasy last year – according to the
FF Today Default Scoring setting on the Consistency
Calculator – when it came to posting elite production in 2010.
As one might imagine, perhaps no player benefits more from the
transition from PPR to non-PPR scoring more than Michael Turner.
While there is only a three-spot difference for him in my rankings,
the fact of the matter is that he has been miscast in PPR leagues
as a RB1 for the last two seasons. But in non-PPR, his scoring
prowess can be highlighted much more since he isn’t giving
up approximately 100 fantasy points each year to the top backs
who typically post 50+ catches and roughly 500 receiving yards.
I have never been a big fan of one-trick ponies at RB in fantasy,
but Turner is an interesting – if not appealing –
consideration as a RB2 in non-PPR. I must admit landing McFadden-Turner
in the first two rounds of a non-PPR draft is an appetizing thought
for owners who are picking at the back end of the first round
of a snake draft. The fact that we can attribute his late-season
fade to a groin injury that he played through (and has since underwent
surgery for) means he has a shot of giving us perhaps one more
season of insane production in what figures to be a prolific offense.
26-50: Trying to gauge the value
of some players – no matter how hard you try or what methods
you use – is a fruitless endeavor. Such is the case with
DeAngelo Williams, who still has plenty left in the tank to return
to his glory days in 2008 when he was the best fantasy RB in the
land…or he could give his owners an injury-shortened season
like he has the past two seasons. On one hand, Carolina should
have its stellar run-blocking line back intact, but will the inaccuracy
of likely rookie QB starter Cam Newton mean that opponents will
sell out to stop the run at all costs? Then, there is the presence
of “Double Trouble” tag team partner Jonathan Stewart,
who also serves as a drain for consistent fantasy production from
Williams. And let’s not forget Mike Goodson, who was being
used as the third-down back a lot when all three were healthy
last season. Does that continue with the new coaching staff? I
believe he’s worth the risk for a fourth-round pick (where
I have him rated), but his ceiling is certainly lower than most
and his floor is lower than I’d like it to be.
51-100: Each year, there are players
who you want to be more optimistic about than you are. And then,
there are those players who you believe you are too high on and
need someone to help you keep your expectations in check. In my
case, the last part applies to Julio Jones, who enters the league
with some injury risk already and is clearly the second option
in the passing game (at best) behind Roddy White and, depending
on the opponent, Tony Gonzalez. Throw in a healthy Harry Douglas
in the slot (who I wish I could put higher on both lists than
I have him right now) and the potential for disappointment is
definitely there, especially when I have him projected for nine
scores. However, this offense is primed to score at least 40 TDs
this season, with at least 25-30 coming through the air. So even
if White goes crazy and scores half of the total (which is doubtful),
that still leaves Gonzalez and Jones to split roughly 10-15 scores
with someone like Douglas stealing a couple of TDs. Still, with
Gonzo on the decline, expecting more than 5-6 scores from him
would be a bit much. With White likely drawing safety help and
the other safety focused on Gonzalez, Jones may actually fulfill
my lofty expectations.
Cedric Benson may be the Bengals’ feature back and the
only RB worth considering from their backfield in fantasy, but
that doesn’t mean he will carrying his owners to fantasy
titles anytime soon. Not only is his second-half schedule littered
with difficult matchups, but Benson is also operating in a Cincinnati
offense that looks completely inept with rookie Andy Dalton the
likely starter. Dalton won’t be this bad for long, but the
youth at the skill positions will make the offense difficult to
predict from week to week. Since the offense will have trouble
scoring points, it probably won’t be able to consistently
lean on Benson all game long either. I can say with some certainty
I don’t want any Bengals starting on any of my fantasy teams
this season.
101-175: Allow me to throw a bit
of cold water on the Ben Tate hype that came after his 9-95-1
line against the Saints this past weekend. Make no mistake –
Tate is talented and much bigger than I remember him being during
his college days, but barring an injury to Arian Foster, Tate
is looking at the same kind of numbers that Derrick Ward ended
up with last season. While this performance showed the second-year
back is healthy, about all it proved to me was that Houston’s
offensive line is among the best in the league and that Houston
has quality depth in its backfield. In fact, HC Gary Kubiak admitted
surprise when asked at halftime about Tate’s performance.
While I do expect Kubiak to anoint Tate as the backup in the next
week or so, Tate should have much more value to Foster’s
owners than anyone else. I have him currently ticketed as an 11th-round
value right now, which is about where Foster’s owners should
consider him.
Since I started talking about Chris Johnson at the beginning
of the PPR section, I suppose it’s only right to close this
week’s analysis with his backup. Javon Ringer will not make
anyone forget Johnson, but don’t believe for a second that
he cannot be a useful fantasy player. Although rookie Jamie Harper
is opening eyes this preseason, Ringer appears locked in as the
potential starter should Johnson continue to hold out into the
season. To that end, new OC Chris Palmer raved about Ringer last
week, suggesting that he needs to find a way to get the Michigan
State alum some touches even after Johnson returns. Palmer stated
upon his hire that he wanted a 35:30 run-pass ratio and has done
a fair job of sticking to that plan so far in the preseason with
a 63:55 ratio through two games. With injury-prone QB Matt Hasselbeck
and the green Jake Locker likely to take all the snaps this season,
that plan doesn’t figure to change much with or without
Johnson. Therefore, owners need to start considering Ringer as
a bit player right now who could see his value skyrocket in about
two weeks if Johnson is still not in camp at that point. And as
we discussed above, the likelihood of injury increases the longer
Johnson holds out, so even if/when does report, Ringer needs to
remain on fantasy rosters.
Note: As opposed to placing kickers and defense/special teams
units in my Big Board, I will let you – the fantasy owner
– decide at what point you should select your kicker and
defense, although I don’t mind grabbing my defense in the
12th or 13th round of a 16-round draft when I feel really good
about the team I have drafted to that point and the schedule suggests
there is a team that is in line to have an incredible year on
defense.
And now, the defense/special teams rankings…
Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks
Defense/Special
Teams |
Pos |
Player |
Fpts/G |
FPts |
PA |
Sk |
TO |
TD |
Bon |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
DST |
Packers DST |
11.0 |
165 |
258 |
46 |
62 |
30 |
27 |
|
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|
DST |
Steelers DST |
9.9 |
148 |
236 |
47 |
52 |
18 |
31 |
|
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|
DST |
Eagles DST |
9.3 |
140 |
328 |
44 |
58 |
30 |
8 |
|
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|
DST |
Saints DST |
9.3 |
139 |
275 |
38 |
58 |
24 |
19 |
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|
DST |
Ravens DST |
9.1 |
136 |
260 |
36 |
48 |
30 |
22 |
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|
DST |
Jets DST |
9.1 |
136 |
233 |
36 |
56 |
12 |
32 |
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|
DST |
Giants DST |
9.0 |
135 |
299 |
46 |
54 |
24 |
11 |
|
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|
DST |
Bears DST |
8.9 |
133 |
280 |
40 |
52 |
24 |
17 |
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|
DST |
Patriots DST |
8.6 |
129 |
275 |
33 |
58 |
24 |
14 |
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DST |
Chargers DST |
8.4 |
126 |
307 |
40 |
44 |
30 |
12 |
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DST |
Falcons DST |
8.3 |
124 |
298 |
36 |
56 |
18 |
14 |
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DST |
Colts DST |
8.1 |
122 |
298 |
34 |
50 |
24 |
14 |
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DST |
Cardinals DST |
7.9 |
119 |
318 |
38 |
50 |
24 |
7 |
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DST |
Cowboys DST |
7.8 |
117 |
310 |
36 |
46 |
24 |
11 |
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DST |
Chiefs DST |
7.8 |
117 |
287 |
34 |
50 |
18 |
15 |
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DST |
Lions DST |
7.7 |
116 |
373 |
37 |
52 |
30 |
-3 |
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DST |
Rams DST |
7.3 |
110 |
310 |
35 |
48 |
18 |
9 |
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DST |
Dolphins DST |
6.9 |
104 |
338 |
34 |
40 |
24 |
6 |
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|
DST |
Texans DST |
6.9 |
103 |
321 |
32 |
44 |
18 |
9 |
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DST |
Bucs DST |
6.9 |
103 |
346 |
32 |
48 |
18 |
5 |
|
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|
DST |
Broncos DST |
6.7 |
101 |
347 |
35 |
46 |
18 |
2 |
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|
DST |
Raiders DST |
6.8 |
102 |
374 |
38 |
42 |
24 |
-2 |
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|
DST |
Vikings DST |
6.5 |
97 |
396 |
35 |
42 |
24 |
-4 |
|
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DST |
Seahawks DST |
6.1 |
91 |
360 |
32 |
44 |
12 |
3 |
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|
DST |
Redskins DST |
6.1 |
91 |
369 |
31 |
44 |
18 |
-2 |
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|
|
DST |
Bengals DST |
5.9 |
88 |
339 |
27 |
44 |
12 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DST |
Bills DST |
5.8 |
87 |
387 |
26 |
44 |
24 |
-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DST |
Panthers DST |
5.7 |
86 |
397 |
30 |
48 |
12 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DST |
49ers DST |
5.6 |
84 |
358 |
29 |
40 |
12 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DST |
Browns DST |
5.5 |
82 |
372 |
28 |
42 |
12 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DST |
Titans DST |
5.2 |
78 |
415 |
26 |
38 |
18 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DST |
Jaguars DST |
5.2 |
78 |
388 |
23 |
38 |
18 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow
him on Twitter. |