| SOFA Auction League Recap
 8/30/12
 
 Auction drafting has quickly become my favorite way to build a fantasy 
              football team. While the general idea of this format is to allow 
              every owner an equal opportunity to “buy” the players 
              they want, it combines the ability to value a player’s potential 
              contribution with managing a budget, all the while testing a drafter’s 
              patience in any number of ways.
 While four years of experience in auction drafting may not qualify 
                as the leading expert in the field, I have enjoyed the good fortune 
                of making the playoffs in the SOFA 
                Auction League in each of my first three seasons, with championship 
                game appearances in each of the last two. With that in mind, I wanted to write an article this season about 
                how I approached Year 4 and take a look back at the most recent 
                league draft completed on August 22, a day before the start of 
                the “dress rehearsal” week of the preseason, so keep 
                that date in mind as my opinions on several players changed over 
                the last week while other players such as kickers have been released 
                or put on IR. Below, you will find the values I used to prioritize 
                the players and the rationale I used in selecting my team. Before I start, I do need to note that I battled a number of 
                technology-related hiccups on draft night. (If you’d like 
                to know what they were, send me an e-mail or tweet. It got a bit 
                comical after a while.) Either way, I came out of the draft with 
                a much different team than I usually do. Keep reading and decide 
                for yourself how it turned out. Pre-draft Thanks in large part to all the hours I put into constructing 
                my PMAs and Big Boards, I entered this draft willing to do whatever 
                it took to get one of the four clear RB1s on my list while also 
                grabbing a top-six quarterback since I feel the value at those 
                positions take a sizable dip this season after Chris Johnson and 
                Matt Ryan, respectively. As is my usual strategy, I was willing 
                to accept 1-2 top-end WR2s in order to be strong at each of the 
                other positions since I believe there are roughly 40 receivers 
                that are capable of being regular fantasy starters in PPR leagues. Although it is a complete departure from the conventional auction-draft 
                strategy, I’ve never been a big fan of setting and sticking 
                to pre-draft positional budgets. Much like a redraft format, value 
                is only truly recognized during the course of the draft. If half 
                the owners are willing to spend nearly half of their budget in 
                order to lock up top-flight running backs and you are not (but 
                you entered the draft placing a high priority on the position), 
                you are forced to reassess your budget in the middle of the draft 
                or face the possibility of ending up with a deep team with few 
                superstars. While that is not a bad strategy, superstars win in 
                fantasy and complementary players can generally be found on the 
                waiver wire throughout the year. Instead, I identified about 40 players in various tiers that 
                I felt were either good bets to match or exceed the numbers I 
                have forecasted for them and tried to stay within that list as 
                much as possible. I only departed from that list when players 
                that I liked – but thought I wouldn’t be able to afford 
                – were struggling to bring $10-15 less than my valuation.  The Draft Below you will find the prices that secured that player’s 
                services (actual $) and the price I valued them at before the 
                draft (My $). A dash in the first column reflects the fact that 
                player was not drafted. The blue highlight represents winning 
                bids for FF Today. Finally, I will follow each position with a 
                brief comment.
 All values are based on a $200 cap.
 Observations: Based on the first two 
              quarterbacks, my super-secret method for setting values on players 
              appears flawed, but things started to fall into place more on draft 
              night after Aaron Rodgers ($43) and Tom Brady (($34) were off the 
              table. I’m still unclear as to why my fellow owners felt Drew 
              Brees ($39) was worth $5 more than Brady, who went $9 cheaper than 
              Rodgers. I’m also not sure Rodgers can improve upon his career 
              year – although I expect him to maintain roughly the same 
              pace – but I think Brady will have a great opportunity to 
              improve upon last season’s totals now that he has a deep threat 
              he trusts in Brandon Lloyd to complement Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez 
              and Wes Welker. The bidding war over Eli Manning ($22) was a bit 
              of a stunner to me, although I was more shocked to see Matt Ryan 
              ($26) bring more than Matthew Stafford ($25). It is something I 
              would usually attribute to a bidding war as the quality options 
              were falling off the board, but Ryan was nominated right after Stafford 
              – the fifth and sixth quarterbacks up for bid.
 
 
 Observations: The top six running backs were well within reason, 
              but a number of questionable RB1s or clear RB2s cost much more than 
              they really should have in this auction. The price tag of Matt Forte 
              ($41) was exorbitant for a player who will leave the field when 
              his team enters the red zone. The same can be said about Jamaal 
              Charles ($32), although he has consistently shown the ability to 
              overcome the lack of short-yardage work with long scoring runs. 
              The biggest surprises to me, however, were Doug Martin ($31), Trent 
              Richardson ($28) and Adrian Peterson ($32). Martin has been a personal 
              favorite of mine for some time and was one of my “strategy” 
              players I was sure I could land for under $25, but the bidding got 
              too high too quickly for a player who hadn’t even secured 
              a starting job yet. Richardson’s bid seemed odd considering 
              he will likely be a part-time back for anywhere between 2-4 weeks 
              as he recovers from knee surgery. Peterson was the most surprising, 
              however, since one would expect a group of fantasy writers to be 
              more conservative about a player coming off one of the more severe 
              knee injuries we’ve seen from a running back in a while.
 
 
 Observations: Although it wasn’t a huge reach, Larry Fitzgerald 
              ($31) was a bit pricey for my tastes considering his quarterback 
              situation. Much like Wes Welker ($27), I thought Fitzgerald went 
              for more based on name recognition and not as much because he is 
              expected to thrive in his current situation. While Reggie Wayne 
              ($17) could easily live up to his cost in this auction, I thought 
              his price tag was a bit steep considering Austin Collie ($1) went 
              so cheap and was emerging as Andrew Luck’s favorite receiver. 
              Certainly, Collie’s concussion history is scary, but he’s 
              worth $1 even if he is a third receiver in the Colts’ offense 
              for half a season. Nate Washington ($4) and Kendall Wright ($2) 
              going for almost half the price combined as Kenny Britt ($10) did 
              was also struck me as odd since Britt will likely be on a “pitch 
              count” for the foreseeable future. Two other players who brought 
              much more than I would have expected were Jerome Simpson ($8), who 
              will miss the first three games of the season, and Michael Floyd, 
              who hasn’t exactly lit up the preseason and has the same questionable 
              quarterbacking Fitzgerald does but will likely start the season 
              behind Andre Roberts or Early Doucet. One other quick note: I did 
              not choose to nominate Laurent Robinson, he was nominated for me. 
              (Remember, technology is our friend.) Among many other players, 
              I would have preferred Jonathan Dwyer or Alfred Morris, both of 
              which went undrafted.
 
 
 Observations: Just like at the running back position, it isn’t 
              so much that tight end suffers from a dearth of talent so much as 
              it lacks elite fantasy options. As a result, it probably goes without 
              saying that Jimmy Graham ($35) is far and away my favorite tight 
              end this year and somebody I would be willing to pay a great deal 
              for in order to secure his services. Last season, Rob Gronkowski 
              ($30) averaged just less than two fewer fantasy points than Graham 
              in this league, which is roughly about the same margin I expect 
              Graham to hold over Gronkowski this season. After Aaron Hernandez 
              ($17) and Antonio Gates ($18) come off the board, there is roughly 
              a seven point-per-game difference between Graham and Vernon Davis 
              ($14) in my rankings, which is about the same difference I have 
              between my WR1 (Calvin Johnson) and WR25 (Torrey Smith). Of the 
              rest of the TE group, only Fred Davis ($13) drew a significant amount 
              more than I expected. The Washington Post attributes Davis’ 
              lack of use in the preseason to trying to get Niles Paul involved, 
              but one has to wonder if Robert Griffin III won’t be tempted 
              to tuck it and run if favorite target Pierre Garcon is covered. 
              While a big, athletic tight end is usually a young quarterback’s 
              best friend, few young quarterbacks have the ability to break off 
              a 50-yard run at will.
 
 
 Observation: Nothing out of the ordinary 
              here. I want a strong-legged kicker in a good offense and don’t 
              mind paying an extra $1 to get one if necessary.
 
 
 
                 
                  | 
                       
                        | Defense / ST |   
                        | Actual $ | My $ | Player |   
                        | 3 | 2 | 49ers |   
                        | 2 | 2 | Texans |   
                        | - | 1 | Falcons |   
                        | 2 | 1 | Packers |   
                        | 3 | 1 | Eagles |   
                        | 1 | 1 | Bears |   
                        | 2 | 1 | Bills |   
                        | - | 1 | Chiefs |   
                        | 2 | 1 | Steelers |   
                        | - | 1 | Broncos |   
                        | 1 | 1 | Lions |   
                        | 1 | 1 | Patriots |   
                        | 2 | 1 | Giants |   
                        | 1 | 1 | Seahawks |   
                        | - | 1 | Chargers |   
                        | 1 | 1 | Jets |   
                        | 1 | 1 | Ravens |   
                        | - | 1 | Redskins |   
                        | - | 1 | Cardinals |   
                        | - | 1 | Jaguars |   
                        | - | 1 | Rams |   
                        | - | 1 | Vikings |   
                        | - | 1 | Cowboys |   
                        |  | 1 | Bengals |   
                        |  | 1 | Raiders |   
                        |  | 1 | Titans |   
                        |  | 1 | Browns |   
                        |  | 1 | Panthers |   
                        |  | 1 | Colts |   
                        |  | 1 | Bucs |   
                        |  | 1 | Saints |   
                        |  | 1 | Dolphins |  |  Observations: I’ll make pretty much the same comment I 
                made regarding kickers: I will pay an extra $1 for a good one 
                (I nominated the Niners at $2 but was outbid), but I was more 
                than willing to accept the Texans, who may have the best young 
                defense in the league along with San Francisco.  Post-draft When I enter an auction draft, I try to project my “ideal 
                team” based on my auction values and common sense, all the 
                while allowing myself the flexibility of scooping up a “value 
                pick” whenever I see one. Entering this draft, I envisioned 
                the following team: QB1: RyanRB1: One of the top four: Foster/Rice/McCoy/Johnson
 RB2: One of the following: Sproles/Steven Jackson/Fred Jackson/Martin
 WR1: Cruz or Julio Jones
 WR2: Decker or Maclin
 WR3: Young or Washington
 TE: Hernandez or Gates
 FLEX: Any number of players, although I was probably shooting 
                for Peyton Hillis.
 K: Gostkowski/Crosby/Akers
 DST: Niners/Texans
  For the most part, mission accomplished. In retrospect, if I 
                knew I would land Ben Tate for $5, I would have spent the extra 
                money on Foster and accepted Ryan as my QB or Hernandez at TE. 
                My obvious weakness to begin the season is at my RB2 spot, although 
                I have no problem using Rashad Jennings in that spot until Maurice 
                Jones-Drew reports (if he does). One of the bigger surprises of 
                the draft was that MJD’s owner didn’t even bid on 
                Jennings, an oversight I plan to expose at some point this season. 
                Given how long this holdout has lasted, I’d be surprised 
                if Jennings doesn’t have flex value for most of the season. Although I did want Foster badly at the top of the draft, I reasoned 
                the funds I would save by accepting Chris Johnson as my RB1 would 
                allow me to spread the wealth to other positions while also giving 
                me a player who could realistically challenge the “Big Three” 
                as fantasy’s top RB. As it turned out, that “savings” 
                was the money I ended up spending on Jennings, which could end 
                up being a real bargain if MJD’s holdout continues indefinitely. For my top two receiver spots, I targeted Decker and Maclin as 
                players who I thought would go for less than $20 but had WR1 upside 
                and landed them both. Because this league uses a flex on top of 
                three starting WRs, it was important to identify two more receivers 
                capable of delivering WR2 production in a given week. Instead, 
                I think I was able to grab three: Young, Washington and Collie. Overall, this year marks the first time in my four years in this 
                league I did not come away with at least two feature running backs. 
                The ironic thing is that I’m may not be that far away from 
                having a stacked deck at the position either. I already discussed 
                Jennings, but it is not a stretch to say Jacquizz Rodgers outproduces 
                Michael Turner in PPR this season in a Darren Sproles-lite kind 
                of role. We already know what Ben Tate can do when given the chance 
                and I can easily make the case that Evan Royster and Alex Green 
                will be the lead backs in their offenses. For good measure (and 
                because I knew the league had two IR spots), I snagged Jahvid 
                Best as well. In short, I sacrificed consistency and production from my RB2 
                spot with my winning bids on Brady and Graham early in the draft. 
                In exchange, I landed two players better than the ones I initially 
                targeted that I feel could finish No. 1 at their positions, a 
                tradeoff I am more than willing to make. Heading into this season, 
                I will be rolling with my No.2 QB, No. 4 RB, four of my top 32 
                receivers (including two in my top 12), my No. 1 TE, No. 2 K and 
                No. 2 defense/special teams unit.
 Suggestions, comments, musings about the article 
                or fantasy football in general? E-mail 
                me or follow me on Twitter. 
                
 Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA 
              Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last 
              two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 
              106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member 
              of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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