Last week in Stretch Run Saviors,
we discussed players available in the majority of leagues and capable
of having an impact during the fantasy playoffs if certain events
worked in their favor. This week, we'll touch on the players I believe
should carry the majority of owners to their league championships,
assuming, of course, the rest of his fantasy supporting cast is
pulling their weight.
Below you will find a number of players - broken down by position
- I believe have multiple factors working in their favor to bring
home the goods. For example, "the obvious" grouping
takes into account past production and upcoming schedule, but
doesn't necessarily include the top five options at the position
(what good would that do?). "The somewhat obvious" is
a cluster of players who may be considered a back-end starter
in most cases but may able to step it up over the final three
weeks of the fantasy season. "The less obvious" are
primarily players who have been matchup-based starters, while
"the are-you-kidding-me crowd" is a combination of underachievers
who may surprise or supposed overachievers who may be able to
continue their recent pace.
Quarterbacks
The somewhat obvious: Matt Ryan (@LA, SF,
@CAR), Kirk Cousins (@PHI, CAR, @CHI), Philip Rivers (@CAR, OAK,
@CLE)
The Falcons will have a choice on how they will dissect opponents
the rest of the way, as the Rams, 49ers and Panthers are all either
in freefall and just about there. With Julio Jones dealing with
turf toe and Mohamed Sanu nursing a groin injury, OC Kyle Shanahan
may opt to run the ball more often. If he chooses to keep things
pretty much the same (Ryan has attempted between 33-35 passes
in every game since Week 6), then Ryan shouldn't struggle to reach
250 yards and two scores in most of his upcoming contests. His
ceiling is obviously much higher than that.
Cousins benefits from volume much more than Ryan does, but the
real reason he shows up on this list has to do with the relative
strength of his opponents against the run and those same teams'
relative weakness figures to have stopping all of Washington's
passing-game weapons. Even if Jordan Reed doesn't return (I don't
think it is a given he will and certainly not at 100 percent),
the Eagles, Panthers and Bears are all struggling in the secondary
and don't have near enough quality defensive backs to match the
Redskins' plethora of options at receiver.
Rivers has been consistently underappreciated in fantasy for
some while now, probably in large part because the Chargers haven't
been able to make it to the playoffs very often and his supporting
cast continues to suffer serious injuries every season. He's not
helping his cause this year by throwing more interceptions than
usual, but there is no question in my mind I want him starting
for me over the final three weeks of the fantasy season. Carolina
may be on the verge of checking out and doesn't have much talent
in its secondary (especially if S Kurt Coleman remains out this
week) beyond stud rookie CB James Bradberry. Rivers threw for
359 yards and four scores in a Week 5 win over the Raiders and
Cleveland is, well, Cleveland.
Jameis Winston has three potentiel shootout
games right in the middle of fantasy playoff time.
The less obvious: Jameis Winston (NO, @DAL,
@NO), Tyrod Taylor (PIT, CLE, MIA)
New Orleans ranks right in the middle of the pack against fantasy
quarterbacks and Dallas is 12th, so Winston isn't going to have
it easy as some might expect based on the reputations of his upcoming
opponents. All three games could have a shootout element to them,
however, and neither the Saints nor Cowboys have a defensive back
capable of stopping Mike Evans. Like the Falcons above, the Bucs
could easily just decide to ride the ground game and trust their
improving defense down the stretch, but that doesn't seem all
that likely given Doug Martin's struggles so far and the caliber
of offenses they'll be facing.
Taylor has thrown for more than 200 yards in only four of his
12 outings this season, although we can attribute some of that
to the lack of Sammy Watkins for most of the season and the Bills'
run-heavy ways. It also helps that Joe Flacco's former backup
has run for at least 30 yards in each of his last seven games
and scored a rushing touchdown in five of his last six. With Watkins
back (we think), no stud cornerbacks to take him away, a solid
ground game and three home games during the fantasy playoffs,
Taylor could finally be poised to take off like he did for parts
of last season. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed more than two
touchdowns to any quarterback all season, so this week may not
be his week, but all bets are off against the Browns and Dolphins.
The are-you-kidding-me crowd: Trevor Siemian
(@TEN, NE, @KC), Colin Kaepernick (NYJ, @ATL, @LAR)
Siemian's appearance here obviously assumes his foot will allow
him to go this week and, even then, it would take a pretty dire
situation for me to consider him now, but here's what he has working
for him: the Titans have surrendered at least 22 fantasy points
to quarterbacks (assuming six points per passing touchdown) in
each of the last seven weeks. (Included in that group are Cody Kessler and Matt Barkley.) Neither of those quarterbacks have
near the weapons Siemian does and the Titans may be able to run
the ball well enough that Denver may actually need to score some
points this weekend.
Hopefully, none of you needed Kaep to power you into the playoffs.
(Who knew HC Chip Kelly was so averse to throwing the ball in
the snow?) Assuming you are willing to enjoy the thrill ride Kaepernick
can provide again, his remaining slate includes a defense that
gave virtually no effort in a Week 13 home game and hasn't picked
off a pass since Week 8 (Jets), the friendliest defense versus
quarterbacks the season (Falcons) and a team in the Rams who will
probably be ready to pack it in after giving their all in Week
15 against Seattle. It's almost impossible to figure out when
Los Angeles will bring it and when it won't, but considering the
team has dropped seven of eight and got its only win in that time
against a Bryce Petty-led offense, I'm willing to believe Kaep
can make it 3-for-3.
Running Backs
The obvious: David Johnson (@MIA, NO, @SEA),
Ezekiel Elliott (@NYG, TB, DET), Le'Veon Bell (@BUF, @CIN, BAL),
Melvin Gordon (@CAR, OAK, @CLE), LeSean McCoy (PIT, CLE, MIA)
Shortly after the toe injury that sidelined him for two weeks,
I speculated Latavius
Murray may have been limited over the first month of the season
because of it. Whether or not it was that or just convenient timing,
Murray has been a relative beast in the six games since his return.
Four games with at least 20 touches, with no fewer than 16 in
the other two. At least 71 total yards in each of his last five,
with at least three receptions in four of those. At least one
touchdown in four of his last six outings, with multi-score games
in three. Kansas City will be by far the most difficult of his
next three challenges, although versatile backs like Murray have
more than held their own the versus the Chiefs and the forecast
calls for frigid temps in Arrowhead Stadium for the Thursday night
game that kicks off Week 14. The Chargers (fourth in most points
allowed to RBs) and Colts (11th) will not provide the same resistance
in what could be high-scoring affairs. It should also be noted
Indianapolis will be without top tackler LB D'Qwell
Jackson for the remainder of the season.
Freeman has seemingly settled into a nice 15-20 touch groove,
but we should probably continue to see more Coleman moving forward
considering Week 14 will be his third week back from the hamstring
injury that cost him three games. As noted above, Atlanta could
very well choose to rely even more heavily on the ground game
with Julio
Jones battling turf toe, and the Falcons have the schedule
to do it if they want. (The Rams can't score, the Niners can't
stop the run and the Panthers were already starting to show a
few holes defensively even before losing LB Luke
Kuechly to a concussion in Week 11. They could also be without
top pass rusher Mario
Addison and top S Kurt Coleman) I don't question whether or
not the Falcons' backs will finish strong, so my only concern
if I owned one or both of them would be picking the right one
each week, as was the case early in the season.
Unlike the Falcons' duo directly above, the division of work
in Tampa Bay behind Doug
Martin figures to be a one-man show. Jacquizz
Rodgers has apparently earned in "an expanded role" for doing
about as much with his eight touches last week (50 total yards)
as Martin did with his 18 (68 and a score). Paired with HC Dirk
Koetter's suggestion that Sims' role could be reduced prior to
his knee injury in early October, it's probably safe to assume
Rodgers is at the very least Martin's handcuff and quite possibly
the change-of-pace back Sims was at this point in 2015. Sims could
catch a bit of a break in that he may be asked to give the Bucs'
injury-ravaged receiving corps some help - not suggesting a position
change but focusing more on his ability to run receiver routes.
At any rate, Martin's inability to produce in three weeks since
his return, Sims' likely rust from such a long layoff and the
potential shootout nature of each of the Bucs' next three games
would seem to suggest any back capable of catching passes is going
to have a shot to be a high-upside flex. I think that player will
be Rodgers, but owners are advised to take a wait-and-see approach
before using my hunch and starting him.
What do you get when a team has virtually no one it trusts at
receiver, an inconsistent running game and a floundering defense?
If that same team has Sproles on it, well, a lot of him. The 33-year-old
has been a wonderful PPR asset in five of the last six weeks as
it becomes apparent the Eagles either have no use for or no idea
how to use Ryan Mathews. The lack of quality receiver options
and otherwise stagnant offensive attack will continue to thrust
Sproles into action as Philadelphia faces an offense that figures
to make it play catch-up this week (Washington) followed by the
No. 1 run defense in the league (Baltimore) and a pretty solid
defense in its own right (Giants). All three games will likely
feature a lot of Sproles for obvious reasons, so the only question
will be whether or not Philadelphia chooses to avoid that reality
in the first half of each contest by letting Mathews and/or Wendell Smallwood run into walls, or if the Eagles give Sproles a realistic
shot at 10-12 targets as their best means to move the ball.
The are-you-kidding-me crowd: Lamar Miller
(@IND, JAC, CIN), Todd Gurley (ATL, @SEA, SF)
It's hard to believe we've gotten to this point with two first-round
picks from this summer, but congrats to the few owners who made
it to the fantasy postseason with one or both of these players.
The good news is that it should get better for both next year,
and both have a realistic shot of finishing this season out on
a semi-high note. I noted the Colts' struggles above, while the
Jags and Bengals probably aren't going to be able to control game
script against the Texans. Miller has a realistic shot at 15 PPR
points at least two of his next three games, so long as he can
avoid the injuries that have plagued him lately.
No one wants to hear it - especially his owners - but Gurley
has the most (San Francisco) and second-most forgiving (Atlanta)
fantasy defenses against running backs left on his schedule. (Feel
free to bench him against the Seahawks.) Offensive line woes have
been blamed for the bulk of Gurley's woes this season, but the
front five isn't appreciably different than the one that allowed
him to thrive as a rookie for the first part of last season. He's
running with less conviction (can you blame him?) and the touchdowns
that fueled his value after his first four full games have dried
up considerably. The Rams also haven't done a great job of letting
him carry the offense either and appear to be more concerned about
potentially preserving him for next season at this point (could
you blame them?). There is a real chance the last 17 games is
the new normal for Gurley going forward (16.8 carries for 59.5
yards and 12.6 PPR fantasy points), but I don't think we'll know
for sure until he fails in two gift-wrapped matchups near the
end of this fantasy season. As one of the more talented college
backs I have ever seen, I hope the Rams get this right soon for
Gurley's sake.
Wide Receivers
The obvious: Antonio Brown (@BUF, @CIN,
BAL), Mike Evans (NO, @DAL, @NO), Larry Fitzgerald (@MIA, NO,
@SEA), Michael Crabtree (@KC, @SD, IND), Doug Baldwin (@GB, LAR,
ARI)
I'll keep it short with Diggs. As long as he continues to remain
a high-volume target in Minnesota's short passing game, he's going
to be a PPR asset. The good news is Jacksonville is the only remaining
opponent that has the talent at cornerback to serve as a bit of
a speedbump.
Watkins is going to be a huge injury risk for the remainder of
the season and perhaps the rest of his career (hopefully not)
given his troubles to this point. If there is one encouraging
thing about last week's three-catch, 38-yard effort against Oakland,
it was that he played a season-high 49 snaps. The Steelers have
actually been one of the better defenses against receivers so
far this season, although bigger-bodied receivers like Watkins
have enjoyed success against them. The Browns haven't stopped
much of anything and the Dolphins just got gutted by the Ravens'
receivers in Week 13. Whether that means anything going forward
or the Bills even try to get much going through the air over the
next three weeks (Buffalo winters can be brutal) is another issue,
but the path is clear for Watkins to explode down the stretch
if he can stay healthy enough, especially considering the only
other legit competition for targets in this offense is the improving
Marquise Goodwin.
The less obvious: Jamison Crowder/Pierre
Garcon (@PHI, CAR, @CHI), Dontrelle Inman (@CAR, OAK, @CLE), Kenny
Britt (ATL, @SEA, SF)
Jordan
Reed has missed Weeks 6, 7 and 13 so far this season. In those
games, Crowder has posted lines of 3-52-1. 7-108-0 and 3-42-1,
while Garcon has countered with 6-77-0, 2-22-0 and 7-78-0. It
makes sense, as Reed absorbs a lot of short and intermediate routes,
which is primarily where Crowder and Garçon make their living
too. Crowder also seems to be a favorite red-zone target of Cousins,
so when Reed is absent, Crowder is a great bet to find the end
zone. If Reed is going to be as limited as I believe he will be
for the remainder of the season, Crowder and Garcon should feast.
Philadelphia, Carolina and Chicago boast three of the most uninspiring
secondaries in the league at the moment, although each has a good
enough run defense to make Washington throw. The only concern
in each game might be the struggling offenses each of those teams
brings to the table, which could allow the Redskins to go conservative
midway through the third quarter.
Inman may have the least imposing remaining matchups of any receiver
I discuss this week. Robert McClain, Leonard Johnson, T.J. Carrie
and Briean Boddy-Calhoun are the most likely cornerbacks to spend
the next three weeks trying to stop Inman, and it just so happens
Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are both far from 100 percent.
The 27-year-old slot receiver has already been coming on a bit
with touchdowns in each of the last two games, but one could easily
say he has been putting up WR3 numbers in PPR for the last six
weeks. Last week's five targets were his fewest since Week 6 and
it's fair to question just how much better Benjamin and Williams
are going to feel without more rest and/or surgery, so Inman's
involvement in the offense doesn't figure to dip.
Britt has seen no fewer than six targets since Week 4 and is
on pace for 1,140 yards receiving, which is mind-boggling on several
different levels. He's going to be scary to trust in such a dreadful
offense (both of his catches last week came on the two-minute
drive that led to the Rams' only touchdown in a blowout loss to
the Patriots), but the fact of the matter is he has set a pretty
nice floor as a WR3 and offers week-winning upside. Want better
news? Atlanta has already lost top CB Desmond Trufant for the
season and San Francisco ranks sixth in terms most points allowed
to receivers. Britt has already produced WR3 or better numbers
against the Seahawks and Niners as well.
The are-you-kidding-me crowd: Ted Ginn
Jr. (SD, @WAS, ATL), Taylor Gabriel (@LA, SF, @CAR)
There's no question some receivers just aren't going to earn
our trust almost regardless of what they do or for how long they've
done it. Ginn has seen at least six targets in six of his last
seven games, scored a touchdown in each of his last three and
tallied at least nine PPR fantasy points in every game since Week
6. That's a safe floor for a receiver who can probably still be
added off most waiver wires, and his ceiling is pretty high based
on the last three weeks (19.1 average). Casey Hayward (Chargers)
and Josh Norman (Redskins) figure to spend most of their time
on Kelvin Benjamin over the next two weeks, while Atlanta's secondary
shouldn't strike much fear into any receiver with Desmond Trufant
out. Given Carolina's struggles in the secondary, each of the
next three weeks could be high-scoring affairs against above-average
offenses. I'm not betting on Ginn to continue his touchdown streak
much longer, but three more double-digit scoring efforts could
very well be in the cards.
In the same way it is hard to trust players like Ginn who have
let us down many times before, it is just as difficult to put
a ton of faith into 5-8, 165-pound wideouts no matter how good
they are or how many big plays they create. Gabriel was stopped
at the Kansas City 1 last week, keeping him from what would have
been his fourth touchdown in the last three games. Even with his
five-catch, 44-yard "dud" last week, the Abilene Christian
product is 11th in fantasy points per game over the last three
and five weeks, living in the same fantasy neighborhood as T.Y. Hilton in both cases. With Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu now hurt,
who do you think benefits against a pretty soft schedule? Exactly.
OC Kyle Shanahan is smart enough not to pepper Gabriel with 15
targets, but he's already shown he doesn't need that many in order
to thrive. A bump up from his usual five or six to eight or nine
could be the difference in lifting him from the low-end WR1 he's
performed like over the last month to a midrange WR1 level. Am
I predicting that? Of course not. However, I do think he can be
a WR2 the rest of the way given the current circumstances.
Tight Ends
The obvious: Travis Kelce (OAK, TEN, DEN),
Jimmy Graham (@GB, LAR, ARI), Eric Ebron (CHI, @NYG, @DAL)
The somewhat obvious: Kyle Rudolph (@JAC,
IND, @GB), Antonio Gates (@CAR, OAK, @CLE), Tyler Eifert (@CLE,
@BUF, SD)
The ceiling is low for Rudolph given how little time Minnesota
spends in the red zone and how quickly the ball has to come out
of Sam Bradford's right hand, but his floor in PPR leagues is
pretty high considering he is averaging over eight targets and
five catches per game over his last four outings.
After rolling into the Chargers' Week 11 bye with three straight
double-digit fantasy-point performances, Gates followed a zero-target
game with four catches for 37 scoreless yards last week. (Not
exactly the kind of roll owners are hoping for from their top
tight end on the brink of the fantasy playoffs.) Here's a bit
of a pick-me-up: The Panthers (fourth), Raiders (14th) and Browns
(first) rank in the top half of most fantasy points allowed to
tight ends, and we already know it's a priority of Philip
Rivers to help Gates break Tony Gonzalez's tight end touchdown
record (he is two shy of tying Gonzo's 111 career TDs). I'm not
sure the old man will get the three scores he needs during the
fantasy playoffs or even over the final four games, but I'd bet
good money on him tying the mark.
Eifert has found the end zone in each of the last two weeks in
highly challenging matchups with A.J. Green sidelined despite
the fact Baltimore and Philadelphia have surrendered a total of
four receiving touchdown to tight ends this season in non-Eifert
games. So what should we expect against this week against the
Browns, who rank third in terms of most points allowed to the
position, or versus two other defenses that rank in the middle
of the pack? You might want to hope he came back too late for
his owner to make the fantasy postseason. I don't think we can
assume Eifert will end the fantasy season on a five-game scoring
streak, but I sure wouldn't rule it out either.
The less obvious: Cameron Brate (NO, @DAL,
@NO), Zach Ertz (WAS, @BAL, NYG), C.J. Fiedorowicz (@IND, JAC,
CIN), Vernon Davis (@PHI, CAR, @CHI)
In what has been almost a complete reversal of fortune from last
year, New Orleans is holding its own against tight ends while
Dallas stinks at it. With that said, Brate is easily Jameis
Winston's second-favorite target at the moment and the Bucs
don't have anyone else at receiver who can take that title from
him. The running game isn't setting the world on fire either,
so expect Brate to continue picking up whatever passing-game scraps
Mike Evans allows him to eat.
I'm not exactly sure what we can attribute Ertz's strong finishes
each season to (a substantial increase in targets makes a huge
difference), but another one seems to be in the works. Even though
the Eagles certainly had plenty of reason to force-feed him the
ball earlier in the season, the absence of Jordan Matthews in
two of the last four weeks has forced the Eagles' hand a bit.
I have my doubts Ertz will be of much use versus the Ravens next
week, but neither the Redskins nor the Giants have done particularly
well containing tight ends. (Ertz's recent roll started in Week
9 versus New York.) I can't say I trust any offensive player from
Philadelphia all that much in fantasy right now, but tight ends
who see 11-plus targets in two of the last three weeks probably
need to be started in all leagues.
Since Week 4, Fiedorowicz sits in between Greg Olsen (fifth)
and Brate (seventh) in total fantasy points among tight ends.
It is very notable since he has only scored three times over that
nine-game stretch, which means he's getting a lot of regular work
in between the 20s. The Colts (eighth) and Bengals (first) rank
inside the top 10 of most fantasy points allowed to tight ends,
so Fiedorowicz could easily be a midrange TE1 in those contests.
Jacksonville has been among the best defending the position, although
I'm not exactly sure the Texans' plan in their second meeting
with the Jaguars will be to have Brock Osweiler challenge their
up-and-coming corners. In other words, I wouldn't avoid starting
him if he's gotten you to this point.
Although Kirk
Cousins doesn't force him the ball nearly as much, Davis might
as well be an older version of Jordan
Reed. Davis has been extremely efficient with his targets
(36 catches in 43 chances) and offers about a 10-point floor in
PPR leagues when Reed is not playing. Philadelphia is a daunting
matchup this week and Chicago isn't much better during fantasy
championship week, but tight ends have become a central part of
the Washington offense and that won't change just because Reed
may or may not play.
The are-you-kidding-me crowd: Ryan Griffin
(@IND, JAC, CIN)
Outside of perhaps really deep leagues, I'd love to know what
Griffin's ownership percentage is. What I can tell you is Fiedorowicz
might be a fantasy star right now were it not for Griffin. While
it is too much to say he is fantasy-viable at the moment, Osweiler's
unwillingness/inability to hit big plays downfield has led him
to regularly pepper his tight ends with between 10-15 targets
per game. Especially for a second tight end, Griffin has set himself
a pretty nice floor and outperformed some highly respected players
at his position over the last month (Gates, Ebron, Olsen). The
same positive matchups that apply to Fiedorowicz obviously carry
over to Griffin as well, so owners looking for a bit of a Hail
Mary to replace someone like Rob Gronkowski should be able to
get at least 6-10 points from Griffin.
Kickers
I'm going to skip the subsections and explanations for these
final two sections. I will only list options that I believe could
be available and are good enough to power you through the rest
of the postseason, or in the case of the defenses, at least two
games (listed in order):
Matt Prater, Detroit (fantasy's top kicker over the last three
and five weeks; he has multiple field goals in six straight games
and plays in only one more potential bad-weather game)
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.